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V ALUATION S ERIES No FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY V ALUATION S ERIES No. 32 / JULY 2019 PUBLIC CHOICE ALTERNATIVES Flying Into a Promising But Uncertain Future A VALUATION & STRATEGIC APPRAISAL OF TORONTO-PEARSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY IAN MADSEN FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY I I deas that change your world / www.fcpp.org 1 FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY IAN MADSEN Ian Madsen, B.A. (Alberta), M.B.A. (Toronto), CFA, is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. He has extensive experience in portfolio and financial analyses, managing investment portfolios, and managing investment research operations (including overseas). He lives in Surrey, B.C. FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY 203-2727 Portage Avenue, Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada R3J 0R2 Tel: 204-957-1567 Email: [email protected] The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications and public forums, Frontier explores policy innovations required to make the prairie region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the performance of public expenditures in important areas such as local government, education, health and social policy. The author(s) of this study have worked independently and the opinions expressed are therefore their own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the board of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. Copyright © 2019 by the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. Valuation Series No. 32 • Date of First Issue: July 2019. Reproduced here with permission of the author(s). Any errors or omissions and the accuracy and completeness of this paper remain the responsibility of the author(s). ISSN 1491-78 I deas that change your world / www.fcpp.org 2 FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY V ALUATION S ERIES No. 32 / JULY 2019 PUBLIC CHOICE ALTERNATIVES: Flying Into a Promising But Uncertain Future A VALUATION & STRATEGIC APPRAISAL OF TORONTO-PEARSON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT BY IAN MADSEN TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary 4 Introduction: History of Toronto-Pearson International Airport (YYZ) 5 Intrinsic Value: Valuation of YYZ as a Business, In Its Current State 6 Market-based Value: Valuation of YYZ Using Stock Market and Financial Metrics 7 Financial Performance of Toronto-Pearson Airport, and Trends in Same 8 Strategies and Alternatives for Optimization, Debt Restructuring, and Divestiture or Privatization 11 1. Partial divestment 11 Alternative Scenario One: One Quarter of Long-term Debt Retired 12 Alternative Scenario Two: One Half of Long-term Debt Retired 14 2. Disruptions from evolving competitive and technological force 16 3. Readying YYZ for Sale, or “Who Owns This Thing, Anyway?” 17 Conclusion 18 Appendix I: Rationale for Divestiture or Privatization 19 Appendix II: Financial Model Available on request Endnotes 21 3 FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Toronto-Pearson International Airport, coded as ‘YYZ,’ is the airport serving the Greater Toronto Area, GTA domestically and internationally. It is a non-profit entity governed by several GTA regions, the City of Toronto, the Province of Ontario, and the federal government. Using an intrinsic value method, with net income substituted for free cash flow (which is negative and forecast to remain so) and taxed at statutory rates, the company’s value is estimated from $6.65B to a maximum of $46.52B, with a tighter, more plausible range of a median (midpoint of all the relevant values) of $11.63B to a mean (simple average of all the relevant values) of $14.97B. Under the market-based valuation system, using five standard valuation metrics (Trailing Price/Earnings, Price/Sales; Price/Book Value; Enterprise Value to Revenue; Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes & Depreciation & Amortization [EV/EBITDA]; and Price/Operating Cash Flow), the current value ranges from $3.01B to $10.33B, with a mean of $6.73B and a median of $7.43B. The company has positive free cash flow and positive returns on assets, equity, and capital employed. Similar utility-like companies usually pay a dividend to investors. The company is showing sufficient income to pay a dividend; a plan to provide one would make its public market flotation more successful (several large airports around the world are already publicly listed and traded; others are owned by other investors, so divestment is quite normal). Some scenario experiments indicate that YYZ should have part of its debt extinguished to optimize total sale proceeds to the citizens of the city, region, province, and nation. As the entity’s debt level is a little high in relation to its cash generation capacity and its capital expenditure needs exceed operating cash flow, much, if not all, of the first sale proceeds of treasury shares in a partial divestiture might, or should, be used to lower Pearson’s debt and not go to government coffers. The experiments indicate, albeit not definitively, that using proceeds to retire at least one quarter of its long-term debt is likely the optimal strategy. Also, ownership of YYZ will need to be clarified prior to sale; several regions, the City of Toronto, the Province of Ontario and the federal government all seem to have some stake in or responsibility for the entity. Caveat: This report is nothing approaching a prospectus. Only intensive, meticul- ously minute appraisal of all of Toronto-Pearson’s assets, including its physical assets, all its accounts, and hidden assets and liabilities, plus all its contractual, legal, and regulatory obligations, would give an accurate valuation of the company, albeit still dependent on subjective reasoning and assumptions. Even then, it would not necessarily indicate what magnitude of proceeds could or would be garnered in a divestment. The estimates, projections, observations, or analyses herein are neither definitive nor authoritative. Other analysts may have valid, alternative ways of scrutinizing and valuing Toronto-Pearson International Airport. 4 FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY INTRODUCTION History of Toronto-Pearson In 2017, the GTAA announced plans for an International Airport (YYZ) integrated transit centre at Toronto Pearson that would link rail and bus networks in the region and ultimately connect Toronto’s western suburbs with Toronto Pearson’s predecessor airport was built much of Southern Ontario. This would alleviate in 1937, when the federal government acquired aggravated traffic congestion in the greater 1 nine farms in the Malton area for that purpose. Toronto area and strongly improve transit access Toronto-Pearson International Airport, which has for users of YYZ.10 There will be new rail lines and the global symbol ‘YYZ,’ serves Canada’s largest stations at the airport, to Toronto itself, in suburbs, city and metropolitan area. It experienced 49.5 and regional cities such as Kitchener-Waterloo.11 million passengers in 2018, up 5 percent over Pearson projects it will serve 85 million passengers 2017. International passenger growth was higher, a year and generate 8.5 percent of Ontario’s GDP rising by 6.7 percent. YYZ claims to be North by 2037.12 There are no plans for another runway; America’s second largest airport measured by other facilities and technology are believed to 2 international traffic. handle the near doubling of passenger throughput In 2018, YYZ scheduled international non-stop and the doubling of cargo volumes.13 flights to 175 destinations comprising about 72 percent of global GDP.3 Last year, YYZ handled some $35B in goods shipped from producers all over Canada to nearly every nation in the world; about 67 percent of all Canadian airborne exports.4 These exports have grown at a compound annual rate of 5.4 percent since 2014.5 An independent study commissioned by the Greater Toronto Airports Authority in 2016 found that YYZ generates about $42B annually, or 6.3 percent of its host province Ontario’s GDP.6 According to Pearson’s 2018 Annual Report, YYZ generates or facilitates $23B annually in inward foreign direct investment (FDI) and $25B in outward FDI.7 In 2018, commercial (non-aeronautical) revenues grew by 11.4 percent to a record $501.9M–an all- time high.8 Landing and other airline-related fees, including airport improvement fees, have been held steady or declined on a per-passenger basis for several years, and are projected to keep this trajectory maintaining YYZ’s competitiveness.9 5 FRONTIER CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY INTRINSIC VALUE: VALUATION OF YYZ AS A BUSINESS, IN ITS CURRENT STATE For the intrinsic value, projecting future cash flow high current valuations in the stock market, could growth, and bringing it to a net present value, a well be lower than the range used (and thus raise relatively conservative approach was taken, which its estimated value), although there is also a could undervalue the company (please see Table chance that interest rates and the rate of return 1). A simple capitalization perpetuity formula was investors demand on equity (share) investment used, which is appropriate for a mature company. could increase. The company’s free cash flow nominal (i.e., not adjusted for inflation) growth rate range was held The statutory tax rate used in calculations may be within a restrained 2 to 4 percent range, and the lower in the future, as there is continued global required rate of return or cost of capital range was pressure to lower corporate tax rates exemplified from 5 to 8 percent. by the recent drop in the US corporation income tax rates, the slow decrease in Quebec, new cuts The entity could theoretically have higher growth in Australia, and a recent more ambitious schedule in the future so a modest growth rate was of decreases announced by the new government considered reasonable.
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