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Liberum Research Suite UK | Real Estate | Real Estate | PHP LN | Market Cap £1.5bn | 25 March 2019^ TP 130p (from 125p) HOLD Publication price 128.8p (from BUY) Primary Health Properties Next events Q1 update April 2019 Accelerating scale benefits H119 results August 2019 James Ashley David Brockton Stock performance +44 (0) 20 3100 2167 +44 (0) 20 3100 2243 140 [email protected] [email protected] 130 The merger of PHP and MedicX creates a sector leading 120 owner of primary healthcare properties. The addition of 110 MedicX’s best in class assets complements an already high 100 quality portfolio and accelerates benefits of scale. We Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 Dec 18 believe the enlarged group is well placed to profit from an PRIMARY HEALTH FTSE ALL-SHARE INDEX increasing shift towards primary healthcare as well as growth opportunities in Ireland. However, a 16% rise in the Summary Financials & Valuation (£m) FY - December year end share price YTD sees the shares fairly valued at 1.23x CY19 P/NAV with a 4.3% yield. We increase our target price from EV (FY) 18A 19E 20E 21E Market cap 1,460 1,460 1,460 1,460 125p to 130p, but downgrade to HOLD (from Buy). Net debt/(cash) 677 1,188 1,277 1,363 Pension & other adj. 0 0 0 0 EV 2,136 2,648 2,736 2,822 Consistent returns & merger Accelerating scale benefits Valuation (CY) 18A 19E 20E 21E • FY18 NAV +4.4% to 105p, in line • Merger combines two high quality P/NAV (x) 1.23 1.23 1.21 1.21 • EPS flat & DPS +2.9%, in line portfolios EV/EBITDA (x) 32.1 25.5 22.7 21.8 EV/EBIT (x) 32.1 25.5 22.7 21.8 • £800m of assets acquired through • Accelerates operational efficiency P/E (x) 24.8 22.1 21.1 19.6 MedicX merger • Medium-term opportunity to Div Yield (%) 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.7 reduce cost of capital FCF Yield (%) 2.7 2.5 4.7 5.1 Long-term low-risk growth Premium reflects lower risk Financials (FY) 18A 19E 20E 21E Gross revenue 79.6 118 136 145 • Long-term structural demand for • Forecast 3yr 6% p.a. avg. total Adj EBITDA 66.5 104 120 129 primary care (and GP properties) returns (NAV + dividends) Adj EBIT 66.5 104 120 129 EBIT margin (%) 83.5 88.2 88.8 89.0 • Long rental agreements (13yr avg) • CY19E P/NAV 1.23x, sector 0.87x Adj PBT 36.8 61.6 69.3 74.8 linked (and lagged) to inflation • CY19E DPS yield 4.3% Adj EPS (p) 5.2 5.8 6.1 6.6 DPS (p) 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 • Low risk tenants (~90% govt.) • TP increased from 125p to 130p NAV (p) 105.1 104.3 106.2 106.2 Leverage (FY) 18A 19E 20E 21E Accelerating DPS growth Net debt/(cash) 677 1,188 1,277 1,363 LTV (%) 45.2 49.4 50.7 52.2 6% Interest cover (x) 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 5.2% 5% 4.5% Source: Liberum, Bloomberg 4% 2.9% 2.8% 3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2% 1.3% 1% 0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Source: Liberum, Company. This document is a marketing communication and has been prepared and distributed by Liberum Capital Limited. It is not independent research prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to a prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. For Reg-AC certification, see the end of the text. Liberum does and seeks to do business with companies covered in this communication. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. ^Completed when first distributed. This report is prepared solely for the use of Richard Howell of Nexus Group Primary Health Properties 25 March 2019 Company dashboard PHP is a REIT focused on the UK & Irish primary Structural requirement for investment in primary care Sustained period of sub-inflationary rental growth healthcare sector. The group invests in healthcare Unsuitable quality of existing GP premises Delays in new development approvals real estate and works alongside GP's, the NHS and associated healthcare business (e.g. pharmacies and Expansion into Ireland External fee structure reduces operating leverage NHS Trusts) to develop and manage purpose built Land & cost inflation provides basis for rental growth Irish expansion risk (FX, tenant covenant) healthcare facilities. Properties are generally leased to government on long-term direct or indirect leases. 13 year average unexpired lease length Rent roll backed by NHS & Irish HSE Accelerated scale efficiencies from MedicX merger Rent roll breakdown (post-merger) Equivalent yield Key Sensitivities Driver Change Impact on NAV Other Pharmacy 1% 6.3% 6.1% Yield shift +/- 10bp +/- 4.0% 9% 6.1% ERV growth +/- 1% +/- 0.7% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.3% 5.5% 5.0% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% 5.0% 4.5% Govt. 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19E 20E 21E Backed 90% How the target price is generated We use a return on equity analysis to inform our increased target price of 130p from 125p, detailed at the end of the note. Peer group valuation Name Price Mkt Cap Rec. Target P/NAV (x) P/E (x) Div Yield (%) Div Cover (x) EV/EBIT (x) FCFe Yield (%) (£) (£m) (£) CY 19 CY 20 CY 19 CY 20 CY 19 CY 20 CY 19 CY 20 CY 19 CY 20 CY 19 CY 20 Assura 0.57 1,367 HOLD 0.66 1.06 1.04 19.7 18.5 4.9 5.0 1.0 1.1 23.2 22.6 5.1 5.4 Big Yellow 9.76 1,627 HOLD 9.00 1.42 1.39 22.3 20.9 3.6 3.8 1.3 1.3 24.0 22.6 4.7 5.1 British Land 5.90 5,606 HOLD 5.85 0.70 0.72 18.0 17.7 5.4 5.5 1.0 1.0 23.4 23.3 3.7 3.7 CapCo 2.44 2,078 HOLD 3.00 0.75 0.73 n.a. n.a. 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.0 102.2 79.1 1.0 1.3 CLS Holdings* 2.47 1,004 BUY 3.00 0.78 0.75 18.3 17.7 2.9 3.0 1.9 1.9 22.5 21.9 5.1 5.3 Derwent London 31.70 3,536 HOLD 31.00 0.83 0.83 30.6 26.7 2.3 2.5 1.4 1.5 33.6 30.0 2.9 3.5 Great Portland Estates 7.51 2,044 HOLD 7.05 0.86 0.86 44.4 43.3 1.7 1.9 1.3 1.2 39.3 38.7 2.1 2.1 Hammerson 3.41 2,609 HOLD 3.90 0.50 0.49 12.4 11.8 7.6 7.6 1.1 1.1 25.5 22.2 3.3 3.3 Hansteen 0.93 383 HOLD 1.05 0.88 0.84 18.1 17.7 5.1 5.1 1.1 1.1 18.2 17.4 6.9 7.1 Harworth* 1.30 418 BUY 1.70 0.82 0.76 36.0 35.5 0.8 0.8 3.6 3.3 29.5 29.3 2.0 1.3 Intu 1.05 1,424 SELL 1.00 0.40 0.42 9.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 n.a. n.a. 13.5 13.6 9.3 10.0 Land Securities 9.13 6,773 BUY 10.00 0.70 0.71 15.5 15.5 5.3 5.4 1.2 1.2 19.9 20.1 6.3 6.2 LondonMetric 1.95 1,365 HOLD 1.80 1.09 1.08 21.9 21.4 4.3 4.4 1.1 1.1 25.7 25.4 3.9 4.0 NewRiver* 2.18 663 BUY 3.00 0.86 0.87 10.2 9.7 10.1 10.3 1.0 1.0 14.6 14.2 9.4 9.7 PHP 1.29 1,460 HOLD 1.30 1.23 1.21 22.1 21.1 4.3 4.5 1.0 1.1 25.5 22.7 2.5 4.7 Real Estate Investors* 0.52 97 BUY 0.75 0.73 0.72 12.9 12.4 7.3 7.7 1.1 1.1 17.3 16.8 7.7 8.1 Safestore 5.90 1,239 BUY 6.50 1.40 1.31 20.8 19.2 2.9 3.2 1.7 1.7 20.4 18.8 5.3 5.8 Segro 6.61 7,171 BUY 7.50 0.96 0.92 28.4 26.2 3.0 3.1 1.2 1.2 31.2 29.5 3.3 3.6 Shaftesbury* 8.89 2,733 HOLD 10.50 0.88 0.85 48.4 44.5 2.0 2.1 1.0 1.0 39.8 38.0 2.0 2.1 St Modwen 4.05 901 BUY 4.65 0.81 0.76 24.1 17.9 2.1 2.8 2.0 2.0 18.6 14.1 8.0 10.0 Town Centre Securities* 2.13 113 BUY 3.00 0.61 0.59 17.8 17.0 5.6 5.6 1.0 1.0 22.6 23.7 3.8 3.6 Tritax Big Box 1.44 2,453 HOLD 1.55 0.93 0.90 21.7 20.3 4.8 4.9 1.0 1.0 27.4 25.7 4.7 5.1 U+I* 1.85 232 BUY 2.80 0.60 0.58 8.7 9.8 7.5 6.9 1.5 1.5 10.0 10.7 10.2 9.1 Unite 9.08 2,392 HOLD 9.50 1.00 0.95 21.9 20.8 4.0 4.2 1.1 1.2 22.9 21.6 4.4 (0.8) Workspace* 9.87 1,780 BUY 12.25 0.88 0.86 22.6 20.2 3.6 4.0 1.2 1.2 24.1 22.1 4.6 5.2 Simple average 2,059 0.87 0.85 21.9 20.6 4.1 4.2 1.3 1.3 27.0 25.0 4.9 5.0 Weighted average 0.86 0.84 22.5 21.1 3.8 4.0 1.2 1.2 29.2 27.0 4.2 4.3 Source: Liberum, Bloomberg, Company.
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