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Colgate-Palmolive

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Colgate-Palmolive Colgate-Palmolive Russell Kerschen Zach Glisson Whitney Martin Brian Ghaemmaghami Darren Schreder 1 | Page Table of Contents Executive Summary 6 Business and Industry Analysis 12 Company Overview 12 Industry Overview 14 Five Forces Model 20 Rivalry Among Existing Firms 21 Concentration and Balance of Competitors 22 Degree of Differentiation 23 Switching Costs 23 Scale to Learning Economies 24 Ratio of Fixed to Variable Costs 24 Excess Capacity & Exit Barriers 25 Threat of New Entrants 26 Economies of Scale 26 First Mover Advantage 28 Access to Channels of Distribution 28 Legal Barriers 29 Threat of Substitute Products 29 Relative Price Performance 30 Willingness to Substitute 30 Bargaining Power of Customers 31 Price Sensitivity 31 Relative Bargaining Power 32 Bargaining Power of Suppliers 33 Key Success Factors for Value Creation 33 Competitive Advantage-Broad Scope 35 Firm Competitive Advantage Analysis 38 2 | Page Accounting Analysis 43 Key Accounting Policies 43 Potential Accounting Flexibility 46 Goodwill & Intangible Assets 46 Employee Benefits 47 Legal & Other Contingencies 47 Actual Accounting Strategy 48 Qualitative Analysis of Disclosure 51 Quantitative Analysis of Disclosure 52 Core Sales Manipulation 53 Expense Manipulation Diagnostics 56 Potential “Red Flags” 62 Undo Accounting Distortions 63 Ratio Analysis, Forecast Financials, and Cost of Capital Estimation 65 Financial Analysis 65 Liquidity Analysis 65 Current Ratio 66 Quick Ratio 67 A/R Turnover 68 Days Sales Outstanding 69 Inventory Turnover 70 Inventory Days 71 Working Capital Turnover 72 Profitability Analysis 74 Gross Margin 74 Net Profit Margin 75 Operating Profit Margin 76 Asset Turnover 77 3 | Page ROA 78 ROE 79 Capital Structure Analysis 80 Times Interest Earned 81 Debt Service Margin 82 Debt to Equity 83 Internal Growth Rate and Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis 84 Financial Statement Forecasting 87 Income Statement 87 Balance Sheet 91 Statement of Cash Flows 93 Cost of Capital Estimation 93 Analysis of Valuations 101 Method of Comparables 101 Dividend Discount Model 107 Discounted Free Cash Flow Models 108 Residual Income Model 110 Long Run ROE Residual Income Model 111 Abnormal Earnings Growth Model 114 Credit Analysis 116 Analyst’s Recommendation 117 Appendix 118 Regressions 118 Income statement 131 Common size income statement 132 Balances sheet 133 Common size balance sheet 134 Cash Flows 135 Z-scores 136 4 | Page Cost of Debt 139 WACC 140 Method of Comparables 141 Residual income 144 AEG Model 145 Discounting Dividends 146 Long Run ROE Residual Model 147 Discounted Free Cash Flows 148 Ratios 149 Restatement Analysis 152 References 153 5 | Page Executive Summary Investment Recommendation: Overvalued, Sell 5/05/2008 Share data Valuation Estimates Observed NYSE: CL Share Multiples valuation Price as of 4/1/2008 $ 73.68 Trailing P/E $23.05 52-week range $63.75-81.98 Forward P/E $17.21 Shares Outstanding 509.8M P/B $17.73 Market Capitalization 37.56B D/P $.022 Percent owned by insiders 1.46% PEG $1.74 Percent owned by institutions 71.9% P/EBIDTA $23.03 EV/EBIDTA $12.75 Book Value per share $4.103 Key 2008 financial data Intrinsic Valuations Revenue 13.79B Discounted Dividends $22.96 Net Earnings 1.78B Discounted FCF $57.12 Return on Equity 94% Residual Income $24.66 LR ROE $49.97 AEG $24.66 Cost of Capital Estimations Altman’s Z-score r^2 Beta Ke 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 3-month .127 .455 07.4% 7.19 6.57 7.01 6.68 6-month .127 .455 07.4% 2-year .124 .444 06.8% 5-year .128 .455 07.4% 10-year .129 .452 07.4% Published Beta 0.16 K d 6.16% WACC bt 9.6% 6 | Page 7 | Page Industry Analysis Colgate-Palmolive was originally Colgate a small family owned soap and candle company. They have since grown to merge with Palmolive to become the firm they are today. They have widened their variety of products from soap and candles to oral care, personal care, cleaning goods, and pet nutrition. Their initial public offering was in and have since expanded their firm overseas and are recognized as one of the leading suppliers in their industry. They are on almost every distributor’s shelves in the nation and have become a recognized household name to most all consumers. Their main goal is provide consumers with high quality products that will satisfy their everyday needs. In the personal goods industry the main competitors are Proctor & Gamble, Clorox, and Church & Dwight. All of these firms provide relatively the same products that may simply differ in colors or scents. This makes their industry very dependent on brand image and also susceptible to price wars. By having only a few large firms the high concentration in this industry makes it very important for firm to stay up with the competition on research and development practices. Consumers will always need the products of this industry so the firms compete on low costs and advertising improved products. For instance Colgate and many others have been promoting whitening products for oral care. The personal products industry has a high rivalry among existing firms, a very low threat of new entrants, and a high threat of substitute products. In this industry they also have a high bargaining power of suppliers and a low bargaining power of buyers. This is because of the need for firms to have the large suppliers supply their products to the consumers. The personal products industry is highly concentrated and competitive among the existing firms. The key success factors of the personal products industry are brand image, product differentiation, and cost leadership. All of the products are very similar which makes a firms brand image to the consumers. Since the firms have to compete on price, finding ways to lower production costs is a must to make the most profits. If a 8 | Page firm can find ways to increase their appeal to the consumers while bringing costs to a minimum it will allow them to gain market share. Accounting Analysis The best way for a firm to allow investors to understand their firm and make an educated decision on whether or not to invest is to fully disclose their information. Analysis of a firms accounting policies should identify how detailed and how much information they are willing to disclose. Some firms have been known to hide certain “unflattering” data by giving the minimum of what the SEC requires, this can in many cases lead to accounting distortions. Colgate-Palmolive does a fairly good job in disclosing their information whether it has positive or negative effects on the company. Colgate also discloses the risks they face associated with significant international operations and their restructuring programs which implicates that they are willing to disclose data that may be misleading. There are some areas of concern regarding Colgate’s 10-K disclosure of Goodwill and Other liabilities. Goodwill consists of about 23% of our company’s total assets and that number is increasing by about one or two percent each year. Colgate also discloses the risks they face associated with significant international operations. Information regarding our pension benefit plan and property leases seems to be somewhat limited and is a minimal percentage of our company. Also, the 2004 Restructuring Program had a very strong affect on the ROE which also might have led to some accounting distortions. Compared to other firms in the industry our level of disclosure seems to be above-average. Financial Analysis, Forecast Financials, and Cost of Capital Estimation To be able to figure which items on the financial statements need to be forecasted and what the main driver for forecasting is going to be we must first perform an analysis on their statements. Recently, within the past 5 years, Colgate-Palmolive has had a consistent growth rate of 7.4% which is consistent with the rest of its 9 | Page competitors. Because of firms such as Proctor & Gamble who have control of most of the market, it is imperative that Colgate remain consistent and even try to increase their growth rate to keep their market share. Our estimation of future growth rates for years 2008-17 show to be 8%. For Colgate-Palmolive their asset turnover has averaged 1.33 over the past five years; with this we forecasted current assets as 36.8% and non- current assets were 63.2% of total assets. Our CFFO from net sales was the ratio with the most structure so we used the CFFO/sales ratio of 17% to forecast future cash flows. For the cost of capital estimation we first found the historical monthly stock prices of Colgate for the past 5 years from Yahoo Finance and the S & P 500 prices, and risk-free and market risk premium rates. We used this information to determine a Beta of .46. As a result of low cost to equity found by the equation, we had to use a “back- door method” to find cost of equity. These estimations were then put in the Cost of Capital model to determine a before tax WACC of 9.60%, and an after tax WACC of 8.373%. After collecting data and calculating ratios on our firm and their competitors within the industry it is apparent that Colgate-Palmolive has had an increase in profits over the past few years. Colgate has the highest asset turnover out of all of its competitors and has been increasing each year which shows that their sales and market share are also growing. Our debt service margin although has been declining over that past few years which shows that they are having to more outside funds relative to growth.
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