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Europe, Middle East & Africa September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry Initiating coverage in the Middle East: We select our top ten beneficiaries of the boom Geared to infrastructure investment Best buy ideas The Middle East is experiencing an economic Emaar Properties ACTION boom, born out of structural reform and Aldar Properties supported by the strong liquidity effects of high 12-month Potential oil prices, low interest rates and a weak US dollar. Union Properties Price price target up/downside Buy list stocks Equity markets, having overshot in 2005, now Emaar Properties Dh10.70 Dh16.2 51% Arabtec Holding Aldar Properties Dh7.35 Dh14.4 96% look inexpensive relative to mainstream emerging Union Properties Dh3.16 Dh5.9 87% Arabtec Holding Dh6.25 Dh8.6 38% markets. Tabreed Tabreed Dh2.43 Dh3.2 32% Tamweel Dh4.0 Dh7.0 75% We initiate coverage of 30 stocks in the UAE and Tamweel Abu Dhabi Nat'l Hotels Dh5.85 Dh7.6 30% Agility KD1.82 KD2.4 32% Turkey, which provide exposure to the theme of Aramex Dh2.55 Dh3.4 33% Abu Dhabi National Hotels infrastructure development in the region. Our Dubai Financial Market Dh3.14 Dh4.1 31% coverage stocks span sectors including real estate Agility Sell list stocks Union Cement Dh4.74 Dh4.0 -16% development, construction, building materials, National Cement Co Dh9.65 Dh8.0 -17% Aramex RAK White Cement Dh2.14 Dh1.9 -11% utilities, mortgage finance, logistics and Gulf Cement Dh6.45 Dh5.4 -16% transportation. Together, they represent over 80% Dubai Financial Market of the non-financial market cap of the Dubai Financial Market and c.40% of the non-financial Best sell ideas stocks of the Abu Dhabi Securities Market that UAE cement sector: can be purchased by non-GCC entities. Union Cement Potential upside is attractive, at c.20% to price National Cement target for the coverage group, and c.50% for our Buy list, on a weighted average basis. We see RAK White Cement downside risks, including the impact of falling oil Gulf Cement prices on regional economies as moderate. Neil Wedlake The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. does and seeks to do business with +44(20)7552-0158 | [email protected] Goldman Sachs International companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification, see the text preceding the disclosures. For other important disclosures go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not required to take the NASD/NYSE analyst exam. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 1 September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry Table of contents Overview: We identify top ten beneficiaries of the Middle East boom 4 Middle East economies are booming, while equities look cheap 6 GCC markets appear set for recovery 7 Initiating on UAE markets with a positive regional outlook 9 The macro underpin: Well-oiled economies booming, and diversifying 11 UAE is diversifying rapidly: Real estate takes over from oil as growth leader 23 On-shoring of capital is the driver as diversification takes a new form 26 Will the GCC economies run out of fuel? Our oil view suggests not 28 Potential for currency appreciation to enhance returns 31 Investing in infrastructure: How to gain exposure to the theme 33 Real estate developers: Buy Emaar, Aldar, Union Properties 36 Contractors and materials suppliers: Buy Arabtec 40 Mortgage finance: Buy Tamweel 42 Cement: Sell Union, Gulf, RAK White and National 43 Other sectors: Buy Tabreed, Agility, Aramex, DFM, ADNH 45 We identify stocks with attractive growth at a reasonable price 46 Real Estate company summaries 51 Construction and Materials company summaries 77 Mortgage Finance company summaries 103 Logistics and Transportation company summaries 117 Other UAE company summaries 137 UAE Cement company summaries 157 Turkish Cement company summaries 195 Disclosures 232 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of September 26, 2007. We would like to thank Neville Shaw for his contribution to the preparation of this report. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry Overview: We identify top ten beneficiaries of the Middle East boom We initiate coverage of 22 UAE-listed equities and a further six Turkish stocks, of which we identify ten Buy and four Sell ideas (see Exhibit 1). The Middle East is experiencing an economic boom, born out of structural reform and supported by the strong liquidity effects of high oil prices, low interest rates and a weak US dollar. Nominal GDP growth in the UAE reached 23% in 2006, led by construction and real estate, as economies continued to diversify from the oil sector and invest in new infrastructure. The theme of infrastructure investment is the unifying thread through our coverage universe, which we believe provides broad exposure to the economic transformation taking place in the region, and the UAE specifically. Our coverage stocks span sectors including real estate development, construction, building materials, utilities, mortgage finance, logistics and transportation. Equity markets in the region look inexpensive relative to alternative emerging markets (and the developed world) and have showed low or negative correlation to global equities. A combination of strong growth, low valuations and low correlation is highly attractive in any environment, but all the more when global markets (and the oil price) are around all-time highs. Exhibit 1: Goldman Sachs New Markets Research: Top ten beneficiaries of the Middle East boom Our top ten Buy ideas have average upside to 12-month price target of 50%, while our four Sells have average potential downside of 16% Market Director's Investment Valuation Potential Multiple Company name Sector cap Price Target price Cut list Methodology upside vs Peers (USD bn) Quartile Emaar Properties Real Estate Developers 17.71 Buy DCF/Adj NAV Dh 10.70 Dh 16.20 51% ;; Aldar Properties Real Estate Developers 3.45 Buy DCF/Adj NAV Dh 7.35 Dh 14.40 96% ;; Union Properties Real Estate Developers 2.39 Buy DCF Dh 3.16 Dh 5.90 87% ;; Abu Dhabi National Hotels Company Hotels 1.15 Buy DCF Dh 5.85 Dh 7.60 30% ;; Arabtec Holding PJSC Construction 1.02 Buy DCF Dh 6.25 Dh 8.60 38% ;; Agility Transportation: Logistics 6.19 Buy DCF KD 1.82 KD 2.40 32% ;; Aramex PJSC Transportation: Logistics 0.76 Buy DCF Dh 2.55 Dh 3.40 33% Tabreed Utilities 0.75 Buy DCF Dh 2.43 Dh 3.20 32% Tamweel PJSC Financial Services 1.09 Buy WEV/DDM Dh 4.00 Dh 7.00 75% ; Dubai Financial Market Capital Markets 6.84 Buy DCF Dh 3.14 Dh 4.10 31% ; Union Cement Construction: Cement 0.72 Sell DCF/SOTP Dh 4.74 Dh 4.00 -16% :: RAK White Cement Construction: Cement 0.27 Sell DCF/SOTP Dh 2.14 Dh 1.90 -11% :: National Cement Company Construction: Cement 0.73 Sell DCF/SOTP Dh 9.65 Dh 8.00 -17% :: Gulf Cement Construction: Cement 1.25 Sell DCF/SOTP Dh 6.45 Dh 5.40 -16% :: Source: DataStream, Goldman Sachs Research estimates Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 3 September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry Exhibit 2: Substantial upside/downside to our Buy and Sell list stocks Exhibit 3: Our coverage is dominated by real estate and construction Potential upside or downside to our 12 month price targets Share of coverage market capitalisation, by sector 6.9 100% 3.1 0.8 80% 24.9 60% 8.6 40% 20% 5.6 0% ALDR UPRO TAML EMAR ARTC TABR ARMX ADNH AGLT DFM RAKC UCC GCEM NCC 3.9 -20% 17.3 -40% Real Estate Construction UAE Cement Turkey Cement Transport Utilities Specialty Finance DFM Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Research estimates. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 September 28, 2007 Europe, Middle East & Africa: Multi-Industry Middle East economies are booming, while equities look cheap We believe that Middle East equity markets are set for recovery, as continued strong growth, attractive valuation and improving market access should provide the ingredients for sustained growth from lows earlier this year. In this report we set out the background case for ongoing economic transformation and describe our qualitative and quantitative approaches to identifying our top ten Buy picks in the UAE market, which is home to the exchanges most open to foreign investors. We recap the views of our economics and oils teams on the drivers of growth in the region: high oil prices and economic transformation and diversification. We reproduce our Economics Research team’s forecasts on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ future growth potential: they forecast a potential windfall to the region from hydrocarbons at over US$5 tn over the next 25 years, in 2006 terms. Using relatively conservative assumptions, our Economics Research team forecasts that the GCC’s economy by 2050 could be comparable in size to Germany or Italy. Under slightly more aggressive assumptions of high population growth, better use of technology and improving education, the region’s economy could overtake that of the UK and GDP per capita could equal that of the G7 over the same period. Looking specifically at the UAE, we see evidence of improvement in some of the factors in our Economics Team’s analysis.
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