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Afghanistan: the Culmination of the Bonn Process

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Afghanistan: the Culmination of the Bonn Process RESEARCH PAPER 05/72 Afghanistan: the 26 OCTOBER 2005 culmination of the Bonn process The Afghan parliamentary elections of 18 September 2005 marked the final step in the political process set out in the Bonn Agreement of December 2001, which sought to establish a stable, democratic government for Afghanistan. This paper includes an overview of historical developments up to the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001. It goes on to examine the main stages of the Bonn process, before looking at the evolving security environment, the narcotics issue and the progress made with disarmament and demobilisation. A map of Afghanistan is included as an appendix. More detail on the role of NATO and US forces in Afghanistan is provided in Library Standard Note SN/IA/2601, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Tim Youngs INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS & DEFENCE SECTION HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: List of 15 most recent RPs 05/57 Unemployment by Constituency, July 2005 17.08.05 05/58 Zimbabwe after the 2005 parliamentary election 18.08.05 05/59 Employment tribunals (Representation and Assistance in Discrimination 26.08.05 Proceedings) Bill [Bill 14 of 2005-06] 05/60 Unemployment by Constituency, August 2005 14.09.05 05/61 Employment & Training programmes for the unemployed Vol. 1: 30.09.05 Recent developments and the New Deal programmes 05/62 Employment & Training programmes for the unemployed Vol. 2: 30.09.05 Other programmes and pilots 05/63 Social Indicators [includes articles: MRSA Statistics: Frequently Asked 11.10.05 Questions; Domestic electricity and heating costs] 05/64 Unemployment by Constituency, September 2005 12.10.05 05/65 The Electoral Administration Bill 2005-06 [Bill 50 of 2005-06] 19.10.05 05/66 The Terrorism Bill [Bill 55 of 2005-06] 20.10.05 05/67 The National Insurance Contributions Bill [Bill 53 of 2005-06] 25.10.05 05/68 The Burden of Taxation 26.10.05 05/69 The Rights of Savers Bill [Bill 15 of 2005-06] 26.10.05 05/70 The Terrorism (Northern Ireland) Bill [Bill 52 of 2005-06] 26.10.05 05/71 The European Union (Accessions) Bill [Bill 51 of 2005-06] 26.10.05 Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Any comments on Research Papers should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or e-mailed to [email protected] ISSN 1368-8456 Summary of main points Throughout the latter part of the 20th Century, Afghanistan was wracked by political instability, civil conflict and outside intervention. Soviet forces occupied the country in 1979, but failed to defeat a determined insurgency by Mujaheddin fighters and eventually withdrew in 1989. The conflict degenerated into civil war, as rival ethnic, political and economic interests splintered the Mujaheddin coalition into competing factions. Popular frustration at the lawlessness and corruption and the absence of peace allowed a new militant Islamist movement known as the Taliban to emerge in the south of the country. By 1996 its fighters had captured Kabul and by 2000 it had gained control of around 95 per cent of the country. Only the north-east and certain areas in the centre and west remained in the hands of the opposition Northern Alliance. A major turning point came with the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. The US blamed Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda network, which had established a significant presence in Afghanistan and had developed close ties to the Taliban leadership. International calls for Mr bin Laden to be handed over were rebuffed by the Taliban, and a US-led Coalition began military operations in early October. By December 2001 the Northern Alliance, backed by Coalition airpower and special forces, had driven the Taliban and its al-Qaeda allies from power, although significant elements of both found sanctuary in the eastern and southern border region with Pakistan. From there, they have continued to mount guerrilla and terrorist attacks across the country. Opposition Afghan parties reached agreement in December 2001 on an interim governing structure for the country, pending the establishment of a permanent broad-based, representative and democratically-elected government. The Bonn Agreement set out the process for drafting a new constitution and holding presidential and parliamentary elections. The constitution was agreed in January 2004 and President Hamid Karzai was elected in October of that year. The holding of parliamentary elections in September 2005 marks the formal end of the Bonn process, although it is anticipated that considerable international assistance will continue to be required to help with reconstruction and maintaining stability. A UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is tasked with providing security around Kabul until indigenous security forces can command confidence in these tasks. ISAF has also established a presence in several provinces in the north and west of the country through its Provincial Reconstruction Teams or PRTs. More detail on ISAF and the role of British forces can be found in Library Standard Note SN/IA/2601, International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. The process of reconstruction has been hampered by the continuing instability. Taliban and other anti-government elements have assassinated several senior Afghan political figures and President Karzai has survived a number of attempts on his life. Foreign civilian and military personnel have been subjected to attacks and kidnappings and there are signs that guerrilla tactics and terrorist methods from the brutal insurgency in Iraq are now spreading to Afghanistan. Other challenges include demilitarising Afghan society and reintegrating thousands of militia fighters, strengthening the authority of the central government, and combating the growth of the narcotics trade in a country that ranks as the world’s largest producer of opiates. CONTENTS I Background 7 1. Geography and Population 7 2. History 7 II Bonn Process 12 1. Bonn Agreement (December 2001) 12 2. Emergency Loya Jirga (June 2002) 13 3. New Constitution (January 2004) 13 4. Presidential elections (9 October 2004) 14 5. Parliamentary and provincial council elections (18 September 2005)14 6. After Bonn 17 III Security Challenges 20 1. International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) 20 2. Provincial Reconstruction Teams 20 3. Operations in the South 21 4. An expanded role for NATO? 22 5. Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration 23 6. Narcotics 25 Appendix 1 – Map of Afghanistan 33 RESEARCH PAPER 05/72 I Background 1. Geography and Population The land-locked Central Asian state of Afghanistan has an area of 245,000 square miles, much of which is either sparsely populated desert or remote mountains. It is flanked to the west by Iran and to the north by the former-Soviet republics of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. A narrow mountainous corridor to the north-east connects to China, but the longest common border is with Pakistan to the south and east. Within Afghanistan, physical geography splits the country into two, with the high Hindu Kush mountain range dominating the centre. Communications within the country are sparse. There are two main routes north from the southern city of Kandahar: the first heads north-west to the western oasis town of Herat, and the second heads north-east to the capital, Kabul. There the road splits, continuing east over the Khyber Pass into Pakistan, or north, through the Salang Tunnel, to the border with Tajikistan. A map of the country is included in Appendix 1. The geographical split in Afghanistan is roughly mirrored in ethnic terms. To the north of the Hindu Kush live a mixture of Persian-speaking and Turkic ethnic groups, while to the south live the majority of various Pashtun (Pathan) groups and some Persian speakers. Tajiks and Hazaras populate the central mountain region.1 There are also strong linguistic differences: ethnic Tajiks and Hazaras speak Dari (the Afghani Persian dialect), whereas ethnic Uzbeks, Turcomans and Kyrgyz speak the Turkic languages of Central Asia. The Pashtuns speak Pashto, a blend of Indo-Persian languages. Most of the population is Sunni Muslim with the exception of the Shi’a Hazaras. The most recent census from 1979 placed the population at about 15.5 million, although the United Nations Population Fund estimated in 2000 that it had grown to around 22.7 million. Tajiks are believed to comprise around 25 per cent of the population, with Hazaras forming 19 per cent and Uzbeks around 6 per cent. Pashtuns form the largest contingent with around 38 per cent.2 Afghan Pashtuns fall into a number of different groups (for example, Durrani and Ghilzai) but still share a common ethnic identification with the sizeable Pashtun population in Pakistan. 2. History The diversity of ethnic groups owes much to Afghanistan’s history and its strategic position at the crossroads of Central Asia. In past centuries, the country straddled important east-west trade routes and its mountain passes provided transit for the armies of successive empires, including the Macedonian Greeks under Alexander the Great, the Persians and the Mongols. By the nineteenth century the country had become the focus of rivalry between the British Empire in India and the Russian Empire expanding into Central Asia – an episode that became known as the ‘Great Game’. The British failed on 1 For more detail on the ethnic balance and history of Afghanistan, see Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia, London, 2000, pp.7-13 2 Source: CIA, cited in the Financial Times, 28 September 2001 7 RESEARCH PAPER 05/72 three occasions to conquer the country before choosing instead to co-opt the Afghans through financial assistance and subsidies.
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