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OVERVIEW

BARCELONA MARESME

MARBELLA- SITGES

MARBELLA- COSTA DEL SOL IBIZA

MARKET OVERVIEW AND FORECAST FOR 2017 LUCAS FOX / REAL ESTATE MARKET 2016 / MARBELLA-COSTA DEL SOL 51

“Since the referendum, UK buyers have dropped off due to MARBELLA: MARKET OVERVIEW the weakening of the Pound,” explains Lucas Fox Marbella AND FORECAST FOR 2017 Partner Stephen Lahiri. “There is still movement at the “SINCE THE REFERENDUM, UK BUYERS lower end of the market and some British buyers who had 2016 was a more challenging year for the Marbella market higher budgets have now reduced them. In general buyers than 2015. There has been a slowdown in sales particularly HAVE DROPPED OFF DUE TO THE are younger than in previous years and tend to prefer at the high end of the market both due to legislative changes WEAKENING OF THE POUND.” contemporary modern designs. This has been reflected and the knock-on effect of the EU referendum in the UK. by the level of interest in new build and off-plan projects compared to re-sale homes. However, as the number of new The Supreme Court’s ruling to cancel the Marbella General projects has increased, even off-plan projects are facing Plan had a negative effect on the number of new projects increasing competition. Price has become a deciding factor being launched in Marbella, due to the subsequent in secondary locations.” difficulty in obtaining building licences. The ruling has “TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE only affected areas controlled by the Marbella Town Hall, YEAR THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN “Towards the latter half of the year there has been an increase in the numbers of sellers of re-sale properties however, and consequently has had a positive knock- THE NUMBERS OF SELLERS OF RE-SALE discounting prices, particularly British sellers who can now on effect on the surrounding areas of La Cala de , PROPERTIES DISCOUNTING PRICES, afford to reduce the price without affecting what they will Benahavís and . make in Sterling,” adds Mr Lahiri. “Even certain developers PARTICULARLY BRITISH SELLERS WHO Overall, there has been a significant increase in the launch are now starting to reduce prices and tighten their margins to compete with the increased competition.” of new off-plan developments thanks to investments made CAN NOW AFFORD TO REDUCE THE during previous years, particularly of mid to low priced PRICE WITHOUT AFFECTING WHAT THEY The continued buyer preference is for off-plan projects projects. There has also been an increase in the supply WILL MAKE IN STERLING.” rather than (better value) re-sales (even though they are of renovated re-sale homes with modern designs in the mostly in secondary locations). It seems that most buyers are Marbella area, reflecting the need for sellers to become less inclined to renovate properties (unless for investment) more competitive and offer better quality properties. despite the now significant price advantage. Developers are also offering increasingly interesting payment terms to The prospect of Brexit has had a major effect on the attract buyers. Scandinavian and Belgian buyers are now Stephen Lahiri numbers of enquiries from British buyers among almost the most important nationalities in the market in Marbella, Partner, Lucas Fox Marbella all agents, most notably from the start of 2016 when the particularly in areas such as Nueva Andalucía and even some Spanish buyers have returned to the market. The areas uncertainty began. outside of Marbella have seen more movement, such as , Benahavís and Estepona.

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MARBELLA PROPERTY SALES TRANSACTIONS TRANSACTION VALUE OF PURCHASES MARBELLA PROPERTY PRICES BY FOREIGNERS Property sales transactions in the province of Málaga have Having increased steadily during the first three quarters of shown a steady increase year-on-year during the last 4 years. Amongst foreign buyers the total transaction value of 2016, Marbella’s average property prices dropped slightly The total transaction volume in 2016 shows an annual growth purchases made across the Málaga region (which includes in the last quarter of the year, ending the year on €2,374 rate of 6.65%. The average sales volume was 2,182 per month, Marbella) was higher in each of the first three quarters per square metre, €8 below the price at the end of 2015, up from an average of 2,046 in 2015. of 2016 (for which the latest data is available) than in the according to leading property portal Idealista (which bases its corresponding quarters in 2015. Total purchase value of figures on asking prices). Average property prices in the key property transactions made by foreigners in the first three districts of Benahavís and Estepona rose however, increasing quarters of 2016 surpassed €1.5 billion, showing a 13.65% over the end of 2015 to €2,037 and €1,683 per square metre increase over the same period in 2015. Purchases of new respectively, representing annual growth rates of 6.59% and properties make up only a small amount of overall trading, 7.58%. with foreigners spending just over €120 million on new build and reformed properties, representing 8.23% of the overall market.

MÁLAGA (INCLUDING MARBELLA) NEW AND SECOND-HAND PROPERTY MÁLAGA (INCLUDING MARBELLA) FREE HOUSING PROPERTY SALES TRADING: TOTAL VALUE OF SALES TRANSACTIONS BY FOREIGNERS MARBELLA AND KEY DISTRICTS AVERAGE PROPERTY SALES PRICES TRANSACTIONS, PEAK (Q1 2007) AND Q1 2014 - Q4 2016 Q1 2013 – Q3 2016 Q1 2011 - Q4 2016 Source: National Institute of Statistics Source: Spanish Department of Development Source: Idealista

600000

9000 3000 500000 8000 2500 7000 2000 6000 400000 2 5000 1500

4000 300000 €/m 1000

3000 500 2000 in ‘000 € Value 200000 0

Number of sales transactions 1000

0 100000 Benahavís Estepona Marbella Jan 2007Feb 2014Apr 2014Jun 2014 Oct 2014 Feb 2015Apr 2015Jun 2015 Oct 2015 Feb 2016Apr 2016Jun 2016 Oct 2016 Aug 2014 Dec 2014 Spain AugMálaga 2015 Dec 2015 Aug 2016 Dec 2016 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Benahavís Estepona Marbella Spain (‘0s) Málaga (including Marbella) 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 ViviendaNew Nueva properties ViviendaSecond-hand de Segunda properties Mano

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MÁLAGA (INCLUDING MARBELLA) MID-MARKET PROPERTY SALES MARBELLA PROPERTY BUYERS: TRANSACTIONS (BETWEEN €450,000 AND €900,000), Q1 2012 - Q2 2016 MOTIVATION FOR PURCHASE, 2016 Source: Spanish Department of Development Source: Lucas Fox sales data MARBELLA MID-MARKET PROPERTY SALES TRANSACTIONS 4000 3500

Sales transactions for mid-market properties (valued at 3000 33% between €450,000 and €900,000) in Málaga (which Secondary includes Marbella) accounted for almost 10% of all sales 2500 Residence Secondary Residence of mid-market properties in Spain in the first two quarters 2000 Investment of 2016 (for which the latest data is available), the same Investment 1500 proportion as in the whole of 2015. 67%

Number of sales transactions 1000

MARBELLA PRIME PROPERTY SALES TRANSACTIONS 500

0 In the first half of 2016 (for which the latest data is available) trading of prime market properties in Málaga (which includes Malaga (including Marbella) Spain Marbella) grew by 27.55% over the number of prime Málaga (including Marbella) Spain property sales transactions for the first half of 2015. In the first two quarters of 2016 125 properties valued at more than €900,000 were sold, representing 10.88% of all sales of MÁLAGA (INCUDING MARBELLA) PRIME MARKET PROPERTY SALES MARBELLA PROPERTY BUYERS: prime market properties in Spain in the first half of 2016, a TRANSACTIONS (OVER €900,000), Q1 2012 - Q2 2016 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2016 slightly lower proportion of the market than in 2015. Source: Spanish Department of Development Source: Lucas Fox sales data

LUCAS FOX BUYER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN AND MOTIVATION 900 800 700 Continuing trends from previous years, Lucas Fox data 33% 34% 600 Middle East in 2016 shows that the majority of property buyers in the (Kuwait) 500 Middle East Marbella region are looking for a secondary / holiday home, 400 ScandinaviaScandinavia Other Europe with the remainder seeking a long-term investment. A third 300 () of Lucas Fox property buyers come from the Middle East with 200 Other Europe (Netherlands) the remaining two-thirds coming from Europe. 100 Number of sales transactions 0 33%

MalagaMálaga (including (including Marbella) Marbella) SpainSpain

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MARBELLA RENTAL MARKET significant impact on the rental market, particularly on price and the number of rental properties available. Average rental prices in Estepona and Marbella rose again substantially in 2016, reflecting a similar trend across the entire Málaga region. Airport arrival data is a strong indicator of international demand Marbella ended the year on €9.80 per square metre, up by for properties in the Marbella region. Passengers arriving at 10.78% over the end of 2015 average price. The average Málaga-Costa del Sol airport in 2016 rose by 13.81% over rental price in Estepona was €7.70 by the end of the 2016, those arriving in 2015, making 2016 yet another record- an increase of 17.15% over the average price at the end of breaking year after a consistent increase every year in airport 2015. Across the Málaga as a whole, average rental prices arrivals since 2011. In 2016 passenger arrivals to Málaga-Costa commanded €8.60 per square metre by the end of the year, del Sol airport reached over 16.3 million. up from the end of 2015 average price of €7.80. Average rental prices in Marbella, Estepona and across the Málaga LUCAS FOX WEBSITE INTEREST region have been growing fairly consistently since the third quarter of 2013. Spanish interest in Marbella properties represented just over 40% of Lucas Fox website visitors in 2016. Amongst A new rental law similar to that in Barcelona was passed international buyers the majority of interest in properties in in Andalucía in 2016, imposing greater regulations on the Marbella comes from the (18.62%) and market. A tourist licence is now mandatory for any property Scandinavia (7.53%). rented for less than two months. This is likely to have a

MARBELLA AVERAGE RENTAL PRICES PASSENGER ARRIVALS AT MÁLAGA-COSTA DEL SOL AIRPORT WEBSITE INTEREST IN MÁLAGA PROPERTY: Q1 2011 - Q4 2016 Q1 2011 - Q4 2016 COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, 2016 Source: Idealista, Fotocasa Source: Aena Source: Lucas Fox website data

12 2500

10 Spain Millares 2000 UK 8 Spain 23% Norway 6 UK

2 1500 NorwaySweden 4 40%

€/m Sweden Canada 2% Canada 2 1000 2% France France 2% Belgium 0 2%

Passenger arrivals (‘000s) Passenger NetherlandsBelgium 500 3% 3% USA Netherlands 4% Other

0 19% USA Estepona (Fotocasa) Marbella (Fotocasa) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Málaga average (Idealista) Estepona (Fotocasa) Marbella (Fotocasa) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Other 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Malaga average (Idealista)

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LUCAS FOX PREDICTS

“An improvement in the political stability of Spain and resolution of the Marbella Town Hall planning issues, with licences being granted again, will bring confidence back to the market. The increase in numbers of new projects is leading to greater competition and developers are now focusing on prices and payment terms in addition to value for money. We also expect to see re-sale prices coming down, resulting in some competitive deals becoming available, particularly for larger and second line properties. Finally Lucas Fox is aware of and involved in some very exciting and high profile new projects that are due to be launched during 2017. We believe that these will have a very significant and positive impact on Marbella.”

Stephen Lahiri Partner, Lucas Fox Marbella

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