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Running Against the Political Winds Connecticut College Digital Commons @ Connecticut College Government and International Relations Honors Government and International Relations Papers Department April 2006 Running Against the Political Winds: How Gubernatorial Campaign Strategies Contribute to Mixed Partisan Outcomes in Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections Christopher J. Devine Connecticut College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.conncoll.edu/govhp Recommended Citation Devine, Christopher J., "Running Against the Political Winds: How Gubernatorial Campaign Strategies Contribute to Mixed Partisan Outcomes in Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections" (2006). Government and International Relations Honors Papers. 3. http://digitalcommons.conncoll.edu/govhp/3 This Honors Paper is brought to you for free and open access by the Government and International Relations Department at Digital Commons @ Connecticut College. It has been accepted for inclusion in Government and International Relations Honors Papers by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ Connecticut College. For more information, please contact [email protected]. The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the author. Running Against the Political Winds How Gubernatorial Campaign Strategies Contribute to Mixed Partisan Outcomes in Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections An Honors Thesis Presented By Christopher Devine To the Department of Government In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for Honors in the Major Field Connecticut College New London, Connecticut April 28, 2006 Abstract This study analyzes mixed partisan outcomes in simultaneous gubernatorial and presidential elections. It examines the twentieth century State Reorganization Movement that separated most gubernatorial elections from presidential elections, and evaluates the electoral consequences of these reforms against their stated aims. This study also attempts to provide an explanation for the occurrence of mixed partisan outcomes in simultaneous gubernatorial and presidential elections. It tests the thesis that campaign strategies of gubernatorial candidates and their state party organizations are the primary factors affecting state voter choice of gubernatorial and presidential candidates of different parties in the same election year. The methodology for testing this thesis incorporates data interpretation, media analysis, and case studies of two 2004 gubernatorial elections featuring personal interviews with campaign participants and observers. The data thus collected indicate the validity of this study’s thesis, albeit with minor qualifications. Yet conclusive quantitative data are not available to test the thesis further. As a result, this study is indicative but not conclusive. _________________________________ In dedication to my parents, Michael and Donna Devine. I have been blessed with the opportunity to pursue my dreams thanks to many years of their loving sacrifice and direction. __________________________ Table of Contents Acknowledgements . 1 Chapter I: Introduction to the Study of Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections . 2 Why Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections? . 3 How To Explain Mixed Partisan Outcomes in Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections? . 5 Analysis of Literature Relevant to This Study . 6 This Study’s Contribution to the Literature . 14 How This Study is Designed to Test Its Thesis . 18 Chapter II: The Development and Significance of the State Reorganization Movement . 20 Historical Development of the American Governorship . 20 The State Reorganization Movement Begins . 23 The State Reorganization Movement Leads to a Strong Modern Governorship . 24 The Role of Election Timing in the State Reorganization Movement . 32 Assessing the Impact of Election Timing in Recent Gubernatorial Elections . 37 Assessing the Electoral Significance of Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections . 42 Chapter III: The 2004 Vermont Gubernatorial Election . 44 Vermont’s Political Transformation . 45 Governor Jim Douglas . 46 Democratic Gubernatorial Candidate Peter Clavelle . 55 The Gubernatorial Election Takes Shape . 59 National Politics Gain Prominence in the Late Campaign Period . 69 Assessing the Relevance of the 2004 Presidential Election to the Vermont Gubernatorial Election . 77 Why Did Vermont Voters Reelect Governor Douglas? . 81 The Role of Gubernatorial Campaign Strategies in Determining the 2004 Vermont Gubernatorial Election . 85 Chapter IV: The 2004 Montana Gubernatorial Election . 93 Montana: A Solidly ‘Red’ State? . 94 Dissatisfaction with Republican Governance Entering the 2004 Elections . 97 Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Bob Brown . 100 Brown Wins a Divisive Republican Primary . 102 Governor Brian Schweitzer . 107 Leadership Emerges as the Central Issue of the Gubernatorial Campaign . 110 Schweitzer’s Bipartisan Appeal . 119 Prominent Issues in the Gubernatorial Campaign . 132 The Presidential Election Minimally Impacts the 2004 Montana Gubernatorial Election . 141 Assessing Schweitzer’s Gubernatorial Election Victory . 145 Evaluating the Significance of Schweitzer Campaign Strategies . 149 Chapter V: Conclusions and Suggestions for Further Study . 155 Differing Dynamics Among States With Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections . 156 Conclusions on the Relevance of Presidential Elections to Simultaneous Gubernatorial Elections . 159 Conclusions on the Role of Gubernatorial Campaign Strategies in Producing Mixed Partisan Outcomes in Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections . 166 Areas for Further Study . 176 Bibliography . 181 Acknowledgements Several people deserve my gratitude and acknowledgement for the important contributions they have made to this work. First, I must recognize Dorothy James, professor of government at Connecticut College. I could not have asked for a more thorough, dedicated, and insightful thesis advisor to guide me through this challenging process. Since this work represents the culmination of my undergraduate studies, this is also an appropriate time to acknowledge Professor James’ contributions to my progress more generally. It has been a privilege to work closely for four years with a scholar of such depth and a person of such warmth. She has done her best to prepare me for the challenges of academic life that are ahead. I will always owe part of my success to my mentor, Professor James. Second, I was also well-served in this process by the guidance and expertise of John Nugent, visiting assistant professor of government and senior research analyst at Connecticut College. As my second thesis reader, Professor Nugent made many valuable, thoughtful suggestions that contributed importantly to the quality of this work. Lastly, I would like to thank the many campaign participants and observers who allowed me to interview them for this work, particularly Vermont Governor Jim Douglas and Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer. I greatly appreciate their generosity and candor. Chapter I: Introduction to the Study of Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections In recent years, it has become commonplace to label states ‘red’ or ‘blue’ in accordance with their vote for a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate. These partisan labels vastly oversimplify the nation’s political landscape, implying monolithic political characteristics among the states that fail to account for either varying degrees of polarization or the full range of electoral outcomes. In fact, voters in so-called red or blue states often defy such partisan categorizations by electing to other offices candidates of a different party than their presidential favorite. A particularly compelling illustration of state electorates’ complex voting behavior is found in state selection of gubernatorial and presidential candidates of different parties. Although the specific functions of governors and presidents differ in many important respects, their offices are unique within their respective spheres of government, as primary sources of legislative agendas and symbols of executive leadership. Shared partisan affiliation is a strong, although not a foolproof, indicator of coherent values and policies. Assuming that voters have clear hopes for the direction of their government, one would expect voters to support gubernatorial and presidential candidates of the same political party. Yet modern voters do not behave with the coherence or predictability often ascribed to them by such assumptions. This study demonstrates state electorates’ complex voting behavior by focusing on simultaneous gubernatorial and presidential elections. To explain the causes of mixed partisan outcomes in such elections, this study analyzes the campaign strategies used by gubernatorial candidates and their state party organizations in years when the politics winds blow against their party in the state presidential race. Why Simultaneous Gubernatorial and Presidential Elections? Following the 2004 elections, twenty-one out of fifty U.S. governors served in states whose voters selected a presidential candidate of another party that year. Included among these states were many that produced the nation’s most lopsided presidential votes: Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Vermont, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming.1 Why not, then, study all the states that have produced mixed partisan outcomes in gubernatorial and presidential elections? Why restrict this study’s
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