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Badlands National Park Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

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Badlands National Park Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Badlands National Park Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Natural Resource Report NPS/BADL/NRR—2012/505 ON THE COVER Overlooking the Badlands Wilderness Area in Badlands National Park Photograph by: Shannon Amberg, SMUMN GSS. Badlands National Park Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Natural Resource Report NPS/BADL/NRR—2012/505 Shannon Amberg1 Kathy Kilkus1 Sarah Gardner1 John E. Gross2 Melanie Wood2 Barry Drazkowski1 1 GeoSpatial Services Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota 700 Terrace Heights, Box #7 Winona, Minnesota 55987 2National Park Service 1201 Oakridge Drive, Suite 150 Fort Collins, Colorado 80525 April 2012 U.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Fort Collins, Colorado The National Park Service, Natural Resource Stewardship and Science office in Fort Collins, Colorado publishes a range of reports that address natural resource topics of interest and applicability to a broad audience in the National Park Service and others in natural resource management, including scientists, conservation and environmental constituencies, and the public. The Natural Resource Report Series is used to disseminate high-priority, current natural resource management information with managerial application. The series targets a general, diverse audience, and may contain NPS policy considerations or address sensitive issues of management applicability. All manuscripts in the series receive the appropriate level of peer review to ensure that the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and designed and published in a professional manner. Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations, and data in this report do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the U.S. Government. This report is available from the Northern Great Plains Inventory and Monitoring Network and the Natural Resource Publications Management website (http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/nrpm/). Please cite this publication as: Amberg, S., K. Kilkus, S. Gardner, J. E. Gross, M. Wood, and B. Drazkowski. 2012. Badlands National Park: Climate change vulnerability assessment. Natural Resource Report NPS/BADL/NRR—2012/505. National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado. NPS 137/113535, April 2012 ii Contents Page Figures............................................................................................................................................ xi Tables ........................................................................................................................................... xiv Plates .......................................................................................................................................... xviii Photos ............................................................................................................................................ xx Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... xxiii Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................... xxviii Acronyms and Abbreviations .................................................................................................... xxix Chapter 1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 A Need for Vulnerability Assessment ..................................................................................... 1 Objectives for BADL Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment .......................................... 2 What is a climate change vulnerability assessment? ............................................................... 3 Background of Badlands National Park .................................................................................. 3 Park History and Purpose.................................................................................................... 3 Visitation Statistics ............................................................................................................. 4 Geographic Setting.............................................................................................................. 4 Organization of Report ............................................................................................................ 5 Literature Cited ........................................................................................................................ 7 Chapter 2 Project Methodology ...................................................................................................... 9 Project Scoping ........................................................................................................................ 9 Project Boundary ..................................................................................................................... 9 Historical Climate Patterns and Future Climate Projections ................................................. 10 Evaluating historical climate patterns ............................................................................... 10 Creating Climate Change Projections ............................................................................... 11 iii Contents (continued) Page Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change .......................................................................... 11 Target Resources for Assessment ..................................................................................... 11 Assessing Natural Resources – Plant Community Level .................................................. 13 Assessing Natural Resources – Species Level .................................................................. 17 Assessing Culturally Significant Plants and Animals ....................................................... 21 Assessing Cultural Resources ........................................................................................... 21 Literature Cited ...................................................................................................................... 24 Chapter 3 Badlands Historic and Projected Climate Summary .................................................... 26 Historical Climate Patterns .................................................................................................... 26 Reference Period ............................................................................................................... 27 Climate Trends .................................................................................................................. 28 Projected Climate Trends ...................................................................................................... 33 Literature Cited ...................................................................................................................... 38 Chapter 4 Vulnerability Assessments ........................................................................................... 46 4.1.1 Woodlands .................................................................................................................... 47 Summary: .......................................................................................................................... 47 Description ........................................................................................................................ 47 Climate Change Vulnerability .......................................................................................... 51 Literature Cited ................................................................................................................. 55 4.1.2 Shrublands .................................................................................................................... 61 Summary: .......................................................................................................................... 61 Description ........................................................................................................................ 61 Climate Change Vulnerability .......................................................................................... 64 iv Contents (continued) Page Literature Cited ................................................................................................................. 68 4.1.3 Grasslands ..................................................................................................................... 73 Summary: .......................................................................................................................... 73 Description ........................................................................................................................ 73 Climate Change Vulnerability .......................................................................................... 81 Literature Cited ................................................................................................................. 89 4.1.4 Sparse Badlands ...........................................................................................................
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