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Towards a Normal Sex Ratio at Birth in China

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Towards a Normal Sex Ratio at Birth in China UNFPA China Policy Brief Series TOWARDS A NORMAL SEX RATIO AT BIRTH IN CHINA Overview As an expression of a harmful that allow parents to know the in recent decades, imbalanced practice, gender-biased sex sex of the fetus have exacerbated SRB favoring boys have grown selection (GBSS) in favor of boys this practice. That is to say, there in a number of South Asian, is a symptom of pervasive social, are three preconditions to the East Asian, and Central Asian as cultural, political and economic behavior of GBSS: son preference well as East European countries injustices against girls and women and fast fertility decline motivated (Guilmoto, 2009; UNFPA APRO (UNFPA Asia Pacific Regional the “need” for sex selection (as 2012). The trend has shifted Office (APRO) 2012). Patriarchal the “demand”), and sex selection geographically over time; thus structures reinforce son preference technology makes it possible (as it began in a number of Asian and perpetuate a climate of the “supply”). countries (the Republic of Korea, violence and discrimination China and India) in the 1980s, against women and girls in GBSS leads to distorted levels followed by some countries of the society. Declining fertility and of sex ratio at birth (SRB)1. Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia rapid technology developments Analysis of data indicates that and Georgia) in the 1990s, and has more recently been followed by Montenegro, Albania, and Figure 1: SRB trend in China since the 1970s Vietnam. China has witnessed the most prolonged and significantly skewed SRB among the countries facing a similar challenge. An imbalanced SRB first occurred as a problem in China in the early 1980s. It exceeded 110 in the 1990s and reached an unprecedented 121.18 in 2004 (UNFPA 2016). In response to imbalanced SRB, the Government of China together with international partners and non-governmental institutions, have enacted various policy and Source: Official data from China Population Censuses and Population Sample Surveys intervention measures to curb the 2 UNFPA China Policy Brief Series Figure 2: SRB in China by provinces, in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 distorted SRB. As per official data and statistics, the SRB in China has hit a plateau and consistently dropped for the last seven years - from 119.45 in 2009 to 113.51 in 2015 (Figure 1). Although the ratio has fallen, it is still higher than a normal ratio of 103-107. In terms of geographical spread, first observed in provinces such as Anhui, Henan, Guangdong, and Guangxi in the early 1980s, the skewed SRB has spread to all provinces in China, except Tibet, as per the 2010 census (Figure 2). The skewed SRB increases with Source: China population censuses in 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 parity. The SRB has been higher for the second child than that of the first one, and is even worse annually in the Global Gender Gap effects on the Chinese society, for the third child (UNFPA China, Report. According to this report, including further discrimination 2007). However, the sixth national in 2013, China ranked 69 among against women. According to census of China in 2010 shows that 130 countries in the world. In predictions by demographers SRB for the first child in families 2014, China’s ranking dropped 18 based on various models (Li 2007; has risen significantly, which has points to 87 among 142 countries. UNFPA APRO 2012), demographic never happened before, while that China dropped even further to masculinization will lead to a growing of the second child has dropped 91 in 2015, 99 in 2016 and 100 population gap between young men and the third and higher parity in 2017 mainly because of China and young women, with the number children has fluctuated (Li, Shang ranking the last on SRB2 among all of prospective grooms3 exceeding and Feldman, 2013). The SRB of countries (World Economic Forum that of unmarried women. According the first child has increased from 2015, 2016 and 2017). to UNFPA APRO (2012), projections 106.5, 105.4 and 107.1 in 1982, show that in China and India, men 1990 and 2000 census to 113.7 in will vastly outnumber women of 2010 (UNFPA 2016). The figure is marriageable age for over two high both in urban areas and rural Consequences of generations. Marriage simulations areas and in most of the provinces. the skewed SRB also suggest that the number of The changing patterns imply that single men trying to marry after 2030 in the Chinese society, the main Skewed SRB leads to an might exceed the corresponding factors influencing son preference imbalanced sex structure of number of unmarried women by may be changing, hence calling the population, which has 50-60% in both countries. According for further studies to explore. For significant demographic and to Guilmoto’s (2012) projections instance, the significantly increased social consequences, including: from 2005 to 2100 based on three cost of raising children may be i) marriage squeeze, ii) different scenarios for the SRB4, encouraging families to seek ways potential insecurity, iii) serious even if China’s SRB were to return to have a son as the first and only consequences for men who to normal by 2020—an ambitious birth despite the revision of the cannot marry, iv) increase in goal—as many as 15% of Chinese one-child policy. trafficking and sex work, and v) men at age 50 would still not be able longer term impact on population to find a wife by 2055 (Figure 3). China’s skewed SRB has a ageing because fewer women significant impact on the country’s means fewer children, among In a presentation made during the ranking on the Global Gender others. Marriage squeeze is World Population Day on 11 July Gap Index (GGGI), which was a phenomenon where men 2014 by the National Health and created by the World Economic vastly outnumber women of Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) Forum in 2006 and presented marriageable age, with widespread in Shenyang, an estimated 30 million TOWARDS A NORMAL SEX RATIO AT BIRTH IN CHINA UNFPA China Policy Brief Series 3 Figure 3: Proportion of single men at age 50 according to three SRB scenarios, China, 2005-2100 unmarried males pose a threat to social order on a wide scale (Hesketh et al. 2011; Kaur et al. 2016). In China and India such men do indeed have low self-esteem and are inclined to depression. While the current literature points towards a positive, negative or even insignificant relationship between sex ratio and crimes, it is certain that unmarried men will be largely drawn from disadvantaged and low-status groups of society. Evidence shows that the proportion of unmarried men will Source: Guilmoto, Christophe Z. 2012. "Skewed sex ratios at birth and future be highly concentrated in poorer marriage squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100." Demography, 49(1): 77-100. provinces with low fiscal ability to provide social protection programs (Gupta et al. 2010; Sharygin young men will be involuntary or more distant regions (UNFPA et al. 2013). Such geographic bachelors by 2030. Such a APRO 2012). The skewed SRB may concentration of unmarried males significant surplus of men unable thus increase the possibility that could be socially disruptive, hence to marry (in China, referred to as single men in China seek foreign there is a need to expand the “bare-branches”) will inevitably wives from neighboring countries, coverage of government-financed cause a marriage squeeze, followed such as Myanmar, Vietnam, etc. social protection programs. by profound societal changes and Studies are ongoing to ascertain consequences. Studies in China and whether the increased pressure The loss of female population could India reveal an age gap between for foreign brides is creating a also result in further decrease of men and women at marriage and market for trafficked foreign fertility rate, which in turn will also show that women “marry up” women. Even voluntary foreign intensify population ageing, and (Kaur 2013; Kaur et al 2016 B). brides tend to be of lower socio- become a heavy burden on future The age gap lessens the marriage economic background, which socioeconomic development in squeeze because men can choose puts them in a very vulnerable China, especially through the between women their own age situation. Furthermore, despite the reduction of labor force (Li, Jiang, and younger, but “marrying up” increasing trend of foreign brides, and Feldman 2006). One of the worsens it because women want it may not be possible to meet constraints to continued rapid GDP to marry men who are older, the growing demand of bachelors growth in China is the slowdown better off and educated. Gupta et in the highly populous and SRB- and eventual contraction of labor al. (2010) also argue that lower- skewed China and India, as China force, caused by low fertility. The educated men experience higher already has a gender gap of 66 economic consequences of low rates of bachelorhood while million and India a gender gap of fertility and population ageing women favor men with better 43 million—that’s a surplus of 109 may be further exacerbated by prospects, migrating if needed million men (UNFPA APRO 2012). imbalanced sex ratio at birth. The from poorer to wealthier areas. rise in the SRB further reduces the This explains why educated women While some scholars conclude share of women of reproductive and poor men are worst affected that rising sex ratio imbalances age and so further slows by marriage squeeze. increase violence and crime as population and labor force growth unmarried males are more prone (Golley and Tyers, 2012). A few studies on the impact of sex to commit crimes (Edlund
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