Population and Educational Attainment
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Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................... 1 A Special Thanks Major Findings ............................................................. 1 To Our Sustaining Strategic Partners Context and Population Trends ..................................... 3 Educational Attainment Trends ..................................... 4 Migration Patterns ........................................................ 7 Rural Economic Development ....................................... 8 Conclusion .................................................................. 12 Sources....................................................................... 13 About Aroostook Aspirations Initiative ....................... 15 About Plimpton Research ........................................... 15 “The goals and aspirations of our young people are tied to the future prosperity of Aroostook County.” ~ Sandy Gauvin, Founder, Aroostook Aspirations Initiative Executive Summary Major Findings Aroostook County leaders are Context and Population Trends rightfully concerned about • Aroostook, the largest county in the eastern outmigration, particularly United States, makes up almost 20% of Maine’s land area. While the nation’s population among youth. Employers has grown by 30% since 1970, Maine’s has worry about who will replace increased by only 8%, and Aroostook County’s the region’s aging workforce, has declined by 20%. as economic developers • Aroostook County is losing its young work to diversify the area’s population faster than Maine and many other employment base in the wake rural counties in the Northeast. Only 26% of the population in Aroostook today is younger than of changes in the region’s age 25, compared with 29% in Maine and 34% traditional industries of forest in the U.S. products and agriculture. • Aroostook contains five higher education Aroostook has many unique institutions, which provide plentiful options for strengths to build on. By Aroostook residents to earn a college degree making strategic investments without leaving home. • Aroostook Aspirations Initiative was founded to capitalize on these strengths in 2013 to address youth outmigration and and to bolster already growing the region’s growing need for an educated educational attainment and workforce. AAI awards a scholarship to a incomes, Maine’s largest graduating senior from each of the County’s county can ensure its sixteen high schools every year, for students economic health in the coming who remain in the County for college, and offers leadership events and career-enhancing years and decades. support programs. Its mission is to support the educational and career goals of County youth, This report documents and to mobilize the future prosperity of the recent trends in educational County. attainment and economic indicators in Aroostook County Educational Attainment, Careers, and Economic Indicators compared with Maine and • More than one-quarter (27%) of Aroostook’s the nation. It provides context 51,313 adults aged 25 and older hold an from studies within the County associate’s or higher degree, and another 21% and around the state and the have some college but no degree. country to suggest how County • Since 2005, the proportion of Aroostook adults leaders can invest to ensure an with an associate’s or higher degree grew by 10%, but the proportion with a bachelor’s or economically vibrant future. higher degree has remained stagnant between 16% and 17%. • High school graduation, college enrollment, and college completion rates in Aroostook are higher than the Maine averages. 1 • A survey of Aroostook high school and college economic development investments on building students conducted about a decade ago found on their existing strengths and ensuring that that Aroostook youth have high educational they provide five key elements: strong small aspirations, and that while the majority would schools, social capital, high speed internet like to leave the County for college, a strong service, access to nature, and a quality majority of 75% wanted to either stay in the environment. County or move back at some point in the • Researchers at the Southern Rural Development future. Center studied economic growth of • The same study found that health services, metropolitan and non-metro areas across the education, and business/professional services U.S. from 1980 to 2000, and concluded that were the most common types of jobs that “job opportunities for the highly educated are Aroostook high school and college students becoming more available in rural areas. The were seeking, and that many college-bound key for sustainable economic growth…is to youth were interested in starting their own raise the quality of local labor to handle new businesses (Colgan and Andrews). technologies. Non-metro communities must • In Aroostook, per-capita income grew by 67% find the means to increase the share of college- from 1995 to 2005, then the rate of growth educated workers in their labor force” (Barkley over the past decade slowed to 27%. Over the et al). past decade in particular, Aroostook’s income • A recent synthesis of national data on growth has been closely tied to college degree postsecondary educational attainment similarly attainment growth. concluded that “in order to thrive, rural • If the trends in educational attainment and communities must be able to compete for the personal income in Aroostook from 2005 development of new high-skill jobs to replace to 2014 continue at the same rates for the the loss of low-skill work… Growing the next nine years, 29% of adults will have an number of rural residents with postsecondary associate’s or higher degree by 2023, but the education is a necessary condition” (Schiess proportion with a bachelor’s or higher degree and Rotherham). will remain around 17%. Implications Rural Economic Development • Investing in Aroostook’s young people— • A recent national study of rural U.S. counties ensuring that they can go to college, complete found that the minority that have not lost degrees, and find good-paying work in the area population since 2010 are primarily located and in their desired career fields—paired with in scenic or energy boom regions, while the efforts to diversify the economy and build on 1,300 rural counties losing population are other existing strengths is a promising strategy widespread in regions that depend on farming, for building the County’s economic prosperity. manufacturing, or resource extraction (USDA). • Aroostook Aspirations Initiative can address • Nebraska’s Center for Rural Affairs argues that stalled bachelor’s degree attainment in the economic opportunity—paired with “quality County. AAI’s goal of expanding its scholarship of place” or less tangible aspects of being a to serve more students and its approach of desirable place to live—is essential to retaining tying scholarship aid with career-building and attracting people to rural communities. support programs are targeted squarely to needs They encourage rural communities to focus Aroostook must address. 2 Context and Population Trends Known in Maine as “The County,” Aroostook under age 30 declined by more than half from County is the largest and northern-most county 1970 to 2000. Today, only 26% of Aroostook’s in the eastern United States. Aroostook is known population is under age 25, compared with 29% for forestry, agricultural production—particularly in Maine and 34% nationwide. potatoes and broccoli—and Acadian culture. The County has strong ties with its neighboring The list of current concerns in Aroostook is Canadian provinces of Quebec and New topped by the aging workforce, and uncertainty Brunswick, while it is remote from the rest of about whether enough qualified replacement Maine. The stereotypical Aroostook resident is workers will be available. This is tied to resilient, strong-willed, and hard-working. Aroostook’s perennial concern about losing young people to other parts of Maine and other Aroostook has several unusual characteristics for a states. At the same time, County leaders are rural county. It has Maine’s highest proportion of working to diversify the economic base, attract Native Americans (1.7% in 2010), and the highest businesses and employers to the area, and proportion of foreign-born residents (4.7%). Most encourage and support home-grown business importantly for this report, there are five higher creation (Lynds). education institutions and one higher education center located in Aroostook: Husson University, Aroostook County has several promising Northern Maine Community College, University organizations and projects, including the of Maine campuses in Fort Kent and Presque Isle, Aroostook Aspirations Initiative. Founded in and the Houlton Higher Education Center. These 2013 in order to address the demographic and institutions make it possible for Aroostook residents economic issues discussed in this report, AAI to earn a college degree without leaving home. provides a competitive $2,000 scholarship Several of the colleges have notable partnerships award to a graduating senior from each of with local schools to provide early college and dual the County’s sixteen high schools every year. enrollment credit-bearing courses to Aroostook Students must remain in the County for college high school students at low or no cost. in order to be eligible for scholarship support. AAI’s mission is to support the educational and Today, a little less than one half of one percent career goals of County youth, and to mobilize