Clim. Past, 11, 709–741, 2015 www.clim-past.net/11/709/2015/ doi:10.5194/cp-11-709-2015 © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Non-linear regime shifts in Holocene Asian monsoon variability: potential impacts on cultural change and migratory patterns J. F. Donges1,2, R. V. Donner1,3, N. Marwan1, S. F. M. Breitenbach4,*, K. Rehfeld1,5, and J. Kurths1,6,7 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 2Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden 3Department of Biogeochemical Integration, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany 4Institute for Geology, Mineralogy and Geophysics, Ruhr University Bochum, Universitätsstr. 150, 44801 Bochum, Germany 5Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, 14473 Potsdam, Germany 6Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany 7Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, AB24 3FX, UK *formerly at: Geological Institute, Department of Earth Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Correspondence to: J. F. Donges (
[email protected]) Received: 10 February 2014 – Published in Clim. Past Discuss.: 6 March 2014 Revised: 1 March 2015 – Accepted: 2 March 2015 – Published: 7 May 2015 Abstract. The Asian monsoon system is an important tip- changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic pa- ping element in Earth’s climate with a large impact on hu- rameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have man societies in the past and present. In light of the poten- played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced tially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic cli- cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.