The Northern Ireland Assembly Elections Bill

RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 The Northern Ireland 13 MARCH 2003 Assembly Elections Bill Bill 74 of 2002-03

The Prime Minister announced on 5 March 2003 that the elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, due on 1 May 2003, are to be postponed to 29 May 2003. This is in order to give the various parties involved in negotiations to restore devolved government time to consider forthcoming proposals from the Government. This two-clause Bill revokes the Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2001 that originally set the date of the poll as 1 May 2003.

The Bill is expected to have all its stages in the Commons on 17 March 2003 and in the Lords on 18 March 2003. The Bill does not extend to local elections in Northern Ireland since no such elections are scheduled this year.

Chris Sear

PARLIAMENT AND CONSTITUTION CENTRE Richard Cracknell

SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS SECTION

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ISSN 1368-8456 Summary of main points

The possibility of postponing elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, due on 1 May 2003, was raised during the process of negotiations to restore devolution to Northern Ireland. On 8 January 2003, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Paul Murphy, said, “it is certainly my hope that there will be elections on 1 May to the Northern Ireland Assembly.”1 However, following detailed negotiations on 3 and 4 March 2003, Tony Blair, the Prime Minister, announced that the election would be postponed to 29 May 2003 in order to allow the parties involved in negotiations time to consider the Government’s proposals for the restoration of devolved government, which will be published in April 2003.

The Bill will:

• postpone the date of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections from 1 May 2003 to 29 May 2003.

• remove the power of the Secretary of State to vary the date of the poll.

• amend the Northern Ireland Act 1998 so that an Assembly elected on 29 May 2003 will not have to meet within eight days of the poll.2

• amend the ‘relevant period’ provisions in the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 relating to limits on campaign expenditure and controlled expenditure so that these will have effect from the period beginning four months before 29 May 2003 and ending on that date.

• amend the electoral timetable for Assembly elections so that the date for the publication of notice of the election is not later than the 20th day before the date of the poll, rather than the 25th day. The new timetable for the local elections will therefore beginonTuesday29April.

• allow for the dissolution of the Assembly on 28 April 2003.

The Bill does not apply to local government, parliamentary by-elections or general elections.

The Explanatory Notes to the Bill state that ‘the date as fixed by the Bill is not intended to be subject to any further changes’.

1 HC Deb 8 January 2003 vol 397 cc156 2 As long as s1 of the Northern Ireland Act 2000 is in force

CONTENTS

ITheNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections Bill 7

A. Overview 7

B. New timetable 8

II Background 9

A. The suspension of the Assembly 9

B. Postponement of the election 14

C. Northern Ireland Assembly elections 18

1. By elections 19 2. Fraud and postal voting 19 3. Campaign expenditure 19 4. Local elections 19 D. Reaction 20

E. Precedents for the postponement of elections 21

III The devolution settlement in Northern Ireland 23

A. Devolved powers 24

Appendix One: Northern Ireland election results 1998 & 2001 26

Appendix Two: Deaths, casualties and security services in Northern Ireland 27

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ITheNorthern Ireland Assembly Elections Bill

A. Overview

The Bill is a short, two-clause Bill, which contains the following provisions:

Clause 1 revokes the Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2001,which had set 1 May 2003 as the date of the Northern Ireland Assembly. It substitutes a new section 31(2) in the Northern Ireland Act 1998 specifying that the Assembly election will take place on 29 May 2003 and that the Assembly will be dissolved on 28 April 2003. The Secretary of State’s power to vary the date of the poll, given in s31(3) of the Act, is removed. Further changes to the 1998 Act mean that an Assembly elected on 29 May 2003 will not have to meet within the specified eight days, provided s1 of the Northern Ireland Act 2000 is in force. Changes are made to paragraph 7 of Schedules 9 and10ofthePolitical Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000, which provide for limits on campaign expenditure and controlled expenditure, making the ‘relevant period’ for the purposes of that paragraph the period beginning four months before 29 May 2003 and ending on that date. Any expenditure incurred in connection with the original election date of 1 May will only count towards total expenditure if it was incurred during this ‘relevant period.’ These changes will only apply to this election and not to any subsequent election.3

Under s32 of the Northern Ireland Act, the Secretary of State has the power to propose a date for the poll by Order under certain circumstances. These include the Assembly passing a motion dissolving itself, and the failure of the Assembly to elect a First and deputy First Minister within six weeks of meeting. This power was exercised by the Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2001 in November 2001.4 The revocation of the Order under clause 1 does not revive the Secretary of State’s responsibility under the Act.

The timetable for elections to the Assembly specified in Schedule 1 to the Northern Ireland Assembly (Elections) Order 2001 is amended to make the date for publication of notice of an election not later than the 20th day before the date of the poll, rather than the 25th day as specified in the Order.5 The timetable for the election will therefore begin on Tuesday 29 April 2003.

Clause 2 provides for the short title. The Bill will come into force on Royal Assent.

The Explanatory Notes state that there will be additional costs of no more than £20,000 because of the extra time available to voters to register for the elections under the rolling

3 Bill 74-EN, para 12 4 This was necessary because of problems relating to devolution in the autumn of 2001. See p18 below. 5 SI 2001/2599, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2001/20012599.htm

7 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 registration scheme, and an estimated £30,000 for cancellation charges and the cost of hiring new premises arising from the change of polling date.6

B. New timetable

Clause 1 of the Bill amends the timetable for elections to the next Northern Ireland Assembly as given in the Northern Ireland Assembly (Elections) Order 2001.7 As a result, the electoral timetable for an election on 29 May 2003 is:

Northern Ireland Assembly election: Timetable based on polling day of 29 May 20038

Day of Day before Proceeding Date electoral poll timetable Day 1 -20 Latest date for the publication of notice of Tuesday 29 April election Day 2 -19 Wednesday 30 April Day 3 -18 Thursday 1 May Day 4 -17 Earliest date for the delivery of nomination papers Friday 2 May and for the delivery of withdrawal notices (10am to 4pm) Day 5 -16 Latest date for the delivery of nomination papers Tuesday 6 May and withdrawal notices (4pm). Last day for appointment of elections agents (4pm). Publication of statement of persons and parties nominated at (5pm) Day 6 -15 Wednesday 7 May Day 7 -14 Latest date for receipt of applications to vote by Thursday 8 May post or proxy Day8 -13 Friday9May Day 9 -12 Monday 12 May Day 10 -11 Tuesday 13 May Day 11 -10 Wednesday 14 May Day 12 -9 Thursday 15 May Day13 -8 Friday16May Day 14 -7 Monday 19 May Day 15 -6 Latest date for the receipt of late postal and proxy Tuesday 20 May vote applications on health grounds Day 16 -5 Wednesday 21 May Day 17 -4 Thursday 22 May Day18 -3 Friday23May Day 19 -2 Last date for receipt of lists of candidates’ polling Tuesday 27 May and counting agents Day 20 -1 Wednesday 28 May 0 Polling day (7am-10pm) Thursday 29 May

6 Bill 74-EN, para 17 7 SI 2001/2599, op cit. This modifies the Parliamentary Elections Rules as contained in Schedule 1 of the Representation of the People Act 1983. 8 Timetable confirmed by the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland

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This Order specifies that the latest date for the publication of the notice of the election is 25 days before the date of the poll. However, the current Bill amends the latest date for publication of notice of election to the 20th day before the date of the poll.

The Electoral Commission has recently undertaken a consultation exercise on election timetables in the UK. The Commission suggested that an amended 25-day local government timetable – which applies in Northern Ireland – could also be applied to parliamentary general elections and by-elections.9 The Commission has not yet published its report on the exercise.

Election petitions must be served within 21 days of declaration of result. Return of election expenses is 35 days after the result is declared, with declaration 7 days later, and publication 10 days later.10 Election documents must be retained for 1 year by the relevant returning officer.11

II Background

A. The suspension of the Assembly

Throughout 2002, sectarian violence and allegations that the IRA had broken their ceasefire caused significant pressure on the devolution settlement in Northern Ireland. The arrest in August 2001 and subsequent trial of three Irishmen in Colombia, all allegedly linked to the IRA, added to this pressure. It was seen as evidence that Republican paramilitaries continued to train, gather intelligence and test weapons.12 The trial of those accused of training FARC13 rebels began on 12 February 2003, although it is currently adjourned until 25 March.

On 18 March 2002, it was revealed that there had been a break in at the Special Branch offices of Castlereagh Police Station in Belfast.14 The police and the Northern Ireland Office launched separate investigations.

On 15 June 2002, Jeffrey Donaldson put a motion before the UUP’s executive. The motion, calling for a withdrawal of the party’s ministers from the Executive by 1 July if Sinn Fein were not expelled, was defeated.15 However, the motion was seen as a

9 Electoral Commission, Election timetables in the UK consultation paper, January 2003, available at http://www.electoralcommission.gov.uk/files/dms/ElecTimetableconsFINALwithcover_7735- 6805__E__N__S__W__.pdf 10 Section 81 of the Representation of the People Act 1983, as applied by the 1998 Regulations 11 Rule 57 of the Parliamentary Elections Rules, as applied by the 1998 Regulations 12 “New Threats to peace process”, The Scotsman, 7 October 2002 13 Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia 14 “Police officer gagged in station attack”, BBC News website, 18 March 2002 15 “Trimble holds off Donaldson challenge with ease”, Irish Times, 17 June 2002, p6

9 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 challenge to Mr Trimble’s leadership, and as a result of the problems, First Minister and leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, David Trimble said on 16 June 2002 that he would consider resigning as First Minister to try to make progress with the Good Friday Agreement.16

The escalation of street violence – mainly in the form of paramilitary-style attacks and beatings - and the continuing high level of injuries connected with civil disturbances placed further strain on the peace process. Figures showing the number of deaths and injuries in Northern Ireland are set-out in Appendix 2. The crisis deepened on 4 October 2002 when Sinn Fein’s offices at Stormont were raided as part of a major police investigation into intelligence gathering by Republicans. Furthermore, on 6 October, Sinn Fein’s head of administration at Stormont, Dennis Donaldson, was remanded in custody. Those arrested were charged with possessing documents likely to be of use to terrorists. Following the arrests, David Trimble threatened to withdraw from the Executive if Sinn Fein were not excluded. Motions agreed at the Ulster Unionist Council meeting on 22 September 2002 had already stated:

3. The Ulster Unionist Party supports devolution and has worked hard in the Assembly to deliver good government for all the people of Northern Ireland. Whilst we wish to sustain the institutions of government through the Assembly, we are equally determined to protect the democratic integrity of those institutions. In view of the failure of Sinn Fein/IRA to honour their commitment to exclusively peaceful means, the Ulster Unionist Party will, with immediate effect, adopt a policy of non-participation in meetings of the North-South Ministerial Council involving Sinn Fein, at both plenary and bilateral level. In the absence of Ulster Unionist ministers, the NSMC will cease to function.

4. The Ulster Unionist Party will seek an urgent meeting with our Prime Minister to place before him our demand that he honours the pledge he gave on April 10th, 1998, to provide an effective exclusion mechanism to enable Sinn Fein/IRA to be removed from ministerial office. The Prime Minister will be informed that the UUP will not return to the NSMC and will take further action in relation to our participation in the executive unless he honours his pledge.

5. The Ulster Unionist Party will initiate talks with the other parties and the Government over the next three months to ensure that there is a viable basis for the future governance of Northern Ireland and that unless upon the conclusion of such talks it has been demonstrably established that a real and genuine transition is proceeding to a conclusion, the party leader will recommend to a reconvened UUC meeting on January 18th, 2003, the immediate resignation of all Ulster Unionist ministers from the administration.17

16 “Trimble in fresh threat to quit executive role”, Financial Times, 17 June 2002, p2 17 Ulster Unionist Party press release, What the UU delegates agreed, 23 September 2002, http://www.uup.org/current/displayfullpress.asp?pressid=466

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Particularly important to the UUP and the DUP was the issue of decommissioning of weapons.

Sinn Fein, meanwhile, protested at the methods used in the police search of Sinn Fein’s offices at Stormont. This in turn led to an apology from the Chief Constable, Hugh Orde, who said that the raid could have been done "in a more sensitive and appropriate style".18 On Tuesday 8 October, the DUP leader Rev Ian Paisley confirmed that his party's two ministers, Regional Development minister Peter Robinson and the Social Development minister Nigel Dodds, would resign from the Executive. These resignations took effect on 11 October 2002.

On 11 October, Deputy First Minister Mark Durkan said that "whatever political instability exists, the work of peace and reconciliation cannot be suspended".19 As the two DUP Ministers had resigned, it was clear that the Assembly would be unlikely to last more than a few days without action being taken to exclude Sinn Fein from the Executive. This would have required motion in the Assembly to exclude Sinn Fein from the Executive, but this was unlikely to happen in the face of likely opposition from the Irish Government and from the SDLP. The SDLP’s opposition to such exclusion would in any case have made it highly unlikely that any such motion would have been passed. Two previous attempts at passing exclusion motions had failed to pass the Assembly. Alternatively, the UK Government could have called fresh elections but the resulting campaign could have damaged relations between the two communities even further.

The Northern Ireland Assembly was therefore suspended at midnight on 14 October 2002 following what the then Secretary of State, John Reid, called a "loss of trust on both sides".20 The British and Irish Prime Ministers, Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, issued a joint statement in which they said:

The two Governments are both deeply saddened by today's developments. We remain totally committed to the full implementation of the Agreement which has already brought great gains and tangible benefits to the people of Northern Ireland. It is clear, however, that devolved government cannot be made to work effectively in circumstances where there has been a breakdown of trust between those involved.

The two Governments will continue to press forward with the full implementation of all aspects of the Agreement that will be within their respective powers to implement because we firmly believe it offers the only viable future for all the people of Northern Ireland.

18 “Police chief says sorry for manner of Stormont raid,” The Times, 8 October 2002, p4 19 Northern Ireland Executive press release, Peace & reconciliation cannot be suspended: Durkan, 11 October 2002, http://www.northernireland.gov.uk/press/ofmdfm/021011k-ofmdfm.htm 20 Northern Ireland Office press release, Statement on suspension by the Secretary of State, 14 October 2002, available at http://www.nio.gov.uk/press/021014a.htm

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It is our sincere wish that the Northern Ireland institutions be restored as soon as possible. We firmly believe that it will be possible to do so, and in a way that will last without further disruption, once trust between the parties has been re- established. For that to happen, it must be clear that the transition from violence to exclusively peaceful and democratic means, which has been ongoing since the Agreement, and indeed before, is being brought to an unambiguous and definitive conclusion. It is now essential that the concerns around the commitment to exclusively democratic and non-violent means are removed. The time has come for people to clearly choose one track or the other.21

Suspension was effected by an order laid under the Northern Ireland Act 2000.The Order came into force on 15 October.22 Commenting on the suspension, Dr Reid said:

I want to stress that this is an impasse – hopefully short lived – in one aspect of the agreement. It isn’t the whole agreement. It isn’t the whole peace process. We will continue, in co-operation with the parties and our colleagues in the Irish Government, to carry forward that process and the implementation of the Agreement.23

All the functions of the Assembly and the power-sharing executive were therefore transferred back to the British Government. The number of ministers at the Northern Ireland Office was increased from two to four. Under the terms of the suspension, the ministers and members of the Assembly had their pay cut by one-third. However, Members of the Legislative Assembly continue to be able to use their offices for constituency work. The suspension also means that the special provisions enabling the Assembly to have an input into Orders in Council do not apply during suspension.

Since suspension, several rounds of talks have taken place between the various parties involved. Tony Blair commented on 20 November 2002:

As I always point out to anyone who asks for a renegotiation of the agreement, we would ultimately end up negotiating with the same parties over the same issues. I want the Good Friday agreement to be implemented. I think the vast majority of people in Northern Ireland also want that. Their worry at the moment is whether they can be sure that it will be implemented: will all parties commit themselves to exclusively peaceful and democratic means and will a power- sharing Executive in Northern Ireland stand the test of time? … I believe that the Good Friday agreement—the Belfast agreement—provides the only way forward

21 NIO press release, Suspension of devolved government in Northern Ireland - joint statement by the Prime Minister and the Taoiseach, 14 October 2002, available at http://www.nio.gov.uk/press/021014b.htm 22 Northern Ireland Act 2000 (Suspension of Devolved Government) Order 2002, SI 2002/2574, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2002/20022574.htm 23 NIO press release, Statement on suspension by the Secretary of State, 14 October 2002, http://www.nio.gov.uk/press/021014a.htm

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for people in Northern Ireland. One possible hope for the future is that this recent political crisis has not intensified the security crisis. Most people understand that in the end they will have to come back and debate these issues and find a way through, so that all aspects of the Good Friday agreement are completed for the future of the people of Northern Ireland.24

At Northern Ireland questions in the House of Commons on 8 January 2003, Paul Murphy, Secretary of State, re-stated the Government’s position:

The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (Mr. Paul Murphy): We had intensive discussions before Christmas with the main political parties in Northern Ireland with a view to restoring the stable and inclusive operation of the Belfast agreement on an exclusively democratic and peaceful basis. We plan further urgent discussions, with a view to reaching agreement before the Assembly elections on 1 May.

Helen Jackson: I welcome my right hon. Friend's response. I am sure that he agrees that devolution encourages all the Northern Ireland political parties to talk together about the ordinary political issues that affect their everyday lives. Will he expand on the process that he envisages to enable further discussions between now and, we hope, the elections in May? In particular, how will the Government of the Republic be brought into the discussions?

Mr. Murphy: I thank my hon. Friend for her comments—she is quite right about the restoration of devolution in Northern Ireland. I believe that every party in Northern Ireland, irrespective of its background, heritage and traditions, wants the restoration of devolution. My hon. Friend the Minister of State has just referred to education, which is properly a matter for Northern Ireland politicians, as opposed to us in Westminster. I hope that we shall reach that position as soon as possible.25

Referring to the Northern Ireland elections, due on 1 May 2003, the Secretary of State said:

It is certainly my hope that there will be elections on 1 May to the Northern Ireland Assembly, so that devolution and the other institutions can be restored. I also welcome meetings, for example, between the right hon. Member for Upper Bann (Mr. Trimble) and the president of Sinn Fein, and other meetings between political parties in Northern Ireland. Everybody involved in the political process in Northern Ireland is making an intensive effort to ensure that we restore the institutions, but I do not underestimate the difficulties that lie ahead of us. There are important issues at stake, the central one of which, of course, is to ensure that we engage in politics in Northern Ireland through exclusively peaceful means.26

24 HC Deb 20 November 2002 vol 394 cc640-1 25 HC Deb 8 January 2003 vol 397 cc154-5 26 Ibid, c156

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The Secretary of State made it clear that the cessation of activity by paramilitary organisations throughout Northern Ireland was required to rebuild trust in the devolved institutions:

The Prime Minister has made it absolutely clear, as have I, that there is still activity on the part of the IRA. Indeed, there is activity on the part of paramilitaries across the political spectrum in Northern Ireland. Of course, that does not mean that the ceasefire has been broken, but, as the Prime Minister also said, it is not simply a question of the breaking of a ceasefire, but one of ensuring proper trust and confidence among parties so that they go back into the institutions and the devolved Administration in Northern Ireland.27

B. Postponement of the election

The latest in a series of talks aimed at restoring devolution to Northern Ireland, which had been suspended on 14 October 2002, took place on 3 and 4 March 2003. The Prime Minister, Tony Blair, announced on 5 March that the Northern Ireland Assembly elections, due on 1 May 2003, were to be postponed to 29 May 2003. Following talks between the parties involved, he said:

These have been genuinely constructive talks and though there are areas that are still very difficult, of course, I think there is a shared understanding of how we now move this process forward. Our purpose in doing so is to make sure that we get a lasting and durable settlement based on the Belfast or Good Friday Agreement and the full implementation of it in order to provide people in Northern Ireland with the peaceful and prosperous future we want to see. It is correct to say that in respect of all aspects of what we've discussed and agreed, we would expect positive endorsements on all elements. But the two Governments are very clear as to the way forward and what will happen. There's obviously now going to need to be a time for people to discuss this with their colleagues and it's important that takes place. Also, in addition to that, we, of course, have got the St Patrick's Day celebrations that will take place in America where many people are attending who've been engaged in those talks. For those reasons, and to give that time for reflection, we will put back the date of the elections to the 29th May. That will give people time to do that discussion with their colleagues. We ask that people are patient over this coming period of time and do not judge the Agreement by partial leaks, but actually concentrate on what we are trying to achieve here. Like the Agreement itself, the final steps should be judged in full and in that regard the Taoiseach and myself will come back in April and publish our proposals.

We're not coming back for a negotiation, but will come back in order to publish those proposals and in conclusion we believe that the proposals we have offer that

27 Ibid

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lasting and durable way forward. It's going to be difficult, it always was going to be difficult, but I think there has been an enormous amount of progress made and I hope now that people can take this out and ensure that we get the agreement that we want to see and the future that people here in Northern Ireland deserve.28

Commenting on the negotiations in Prime Minister’s Questions on 5 March 2003, Tony Blair said:

It was a detailed and good set of discussions over two days. It is possible that we have reached the basis for the final breakthrough to resolve all the outstanding issues of the Belfast or Good Friday agreement. It has to be done on the basis of a complete cessation of all paramilitary activity and implementation of all remaining parts of the agreement by the Governments and other parties. I think that there is real hope for that breakthrough, but the discussions over the next few weeks will tell us whether that hope is well founded. I hope that it is, because I truly believe that the one thing that people in Northern Ireland know—let me spell it out again—is that there is no way in which the agreement is going to be renegotiated: it is either implemented or we do not have the peaceful future in Northern Ireland that we all want to see.29

Little clear movement towards resolving the various difficulties was made until the talks of 3 and 4 March 2003. These talks lasted for approximately 30 hours and resulted in the announcement of the postponement of the elections. Proposals for the various parties to discuss were released to the parties as part of a 28-page document which covered five key areas for discussion. The Government was not prepared to publish the document, as Leader of the House, Robin Cook, mentioned during Business Questions on 6 March 2003:

Mr. Nigel Dodds (Belfast, North): With reference to the legislation that the Government intend to introduce Monday week on elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly, can the Leader of the House give a commitment that there will be no further interference with the democratic process and the right of electors in Northern Ireland other than that which has already been announced, postponing elections from 1 May to 29 May? Furthermore, can he ask his colleagues to come to the House and give details of the paper, so far denied to representatives of the people of Northern Ireland who were not invited to the talks, on the deal that is currently under consideration, which consists of 29 pages and five annexes? Surely, the people of Northern Ireland have a right to know what has been discussed regarding the future of the Province? Can the Leader of the House give an assurance that he will publish that document and that it will be placed in the Library of the House so that the people of Northern Ireland can judge the merits or otherwise of the Government proposals?

28 Downing Street Press Release, PM: NI talks have been 'genuinely constructive', 5 March 2003, http://www.number-10.gov.uk/output/Page3202.asp 29 HC Deb 5 March 2003 vol 400 c811. Further information on the decommissioning process is available in Library Standard Note SN/PC/1227, Northern Ireland Decommissioning, 24 October 2001

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Mr. Cook: I can certainly assure the House that when negotiations are concluded one way or another the Government will wish to make sure that the House is fully informed. I anticipate that at that moment there will probably be a statement to the House. At present, negotiations are proceeding among, as the hon. Gentleman knows full well, those who are party to the agreement. It is hardly surprising that those parties that have chosen not to be party to the agreement have been excluded from those talks and the documents, which are necessarily work in progress. When that work is concluded, the hon. Gentleman and all Members of the House will share in the results.30

Nonetheless, the Times listed the main points as being:

• Further normalisation measures, scaling down military installations in South Armagh, and 5,000 British troops to be withdrawn; • Policing and justice measures: the Government wants Sinn Fein to sign up to the new Police Board while Republicans want the police and judiciary under the control of the executive; • Human rights and equality issues, for example equal status given to the Irish language in schools; • A release licence scheme for 30 on-the-run Republican prisoners; • An international monitoring body: a key Unionist demand for a body made up of four delegates from Britain, Ireland, Northern Ireland and the US to monitor the ceasefires and impose sanctions on politicians linked to those who break them.31

It is expected that Sinn Fein will consider the document at the party’s annual conference on 29 March, and that the Ulster Unionist Party will also put the proposals to their ruling council.

The continued importance of decommissioning to the peace process was highlighted during Northern Ireland Questions in the Commons on 12 March 2003. Paul Murphy, Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, answered a question from Eddie McGrady:

Mr. Eddie McGrady (South Down): Does the Secretary of State agree that the continued existence of paramilitary groups, armed and organised, is an affront to basic democracy in Ireland and the legitimate Governments of Ireland, north and south? Is not the decommissioning of all paramilitary weapons by all those groups an essential factor in the current negotiations if the current political impasse is to be broken, progress made and trust re-established? Will not a drip- feed of decommissioning for purely party political gain destroy any remnant of

30 HC Deb 6 March 2003 vol 400 c968-9 31 “Blair urges Ulster parties to seize the chance for peace”, Times Online, 5 March 2003, available at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-600013,00.html

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trust between the parties in Northern Ireland, destroy our devolutionary institutions and destroy political progress?

Mr. Murphy: I entirely agree. My hon. Friend will know, because both he and I were involved in the run-up to the Good Friday agreement in 1998, that decommissioning is very much part of that Belfast Agreement, and that it is a vital element of the means by which trust and the institutions can be restored. Illegal weapons have no place in a modern democratic and peaceful society.32

Commenting on the postponement of the elections, Mr Murphy said:

As a result of talks with the parties last week in Hillsborough, we believe that there is now a large measure of shared understanding among pro-agreement parties on the way forward in the restoration of stable and inclusive devolved Government. However, I repeat that this can be realised only in the context of a complete cessation of paramilitary activity. We need to give these developments every chance of success. To provide time for parties to reflect and to take soundings among their organisations, we propose to defer elections to the Assembly to Thursday 29 May, and we will introduce a Bill tomorrow to that effect. I am optimistic that these developments can deliver a breakthrough in the search for a lasting and stable settlement.33

Speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions on 12 March 2003, Tony Blair, in answer to a question from Kate Hoey, commented:

We have said that the issue of so-called on-the-runs has to be dealt with, and we have said that it should not be dealt with by way of an amnesty. We are looking at the right way of doing that. I hope that my hon. Friend will also agree that, for all the difficulties, the Northern Ireland peace process over the past few years has yielded enormous benefits. The fact that we are actually talking about a situation in which we can have a permanent end to violence in Northern Ireland is a huge tribute to everyone who has been involved in the process since 1997.34

In order for the elections to be postponed, legislation revoking the Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2001 is required.35 Although the Northern Ireland Act 1998 gave the Secretary of State the power, under section 31(2) of the Act, to vary the election date by up to two months,36 the Order specified that the Northern Ireland Assembly elections would take place on the date specified in section 31(3) of the Act, namely 1 May 2003. In any case, this power to vary election dates is more traditionally used to ensure elections do not clash with other specific events, such as Jewish holidays, rather

32 HCDeb12March2003vol401c275 33 HCDeb12March2003vol401c277 34 HC Deb 12 March 2003 vol 401 cc286-7 35 SI 2001/3959, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2001/20013959.htm 36 section 31(2)

17 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 than to make regular changes to elections dates which would, in any case, raise constitutional questions.

The explanatory notes to the Bill state that ‘the date as fixed by the Bill is not intended to be subject to any further changes.’37

C. Northern Ireland Assembly elections

The electoral system used for the Northern Ireland Assembly is that of the single transferable vote. Each of the 18 Westminster constituencies returns six members.

The current rules for elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly are set out in the Northern Ireland Act 1998. Section 31 sets the date for the poll as the first Thursday in May in the fourth calendar year following the date of election of the previous Assembly. However, the Act specifically states that the next election date will be 1 May 2003,38 outside the four year period set in s31(1) as the shadow Assembly (so called as it had no legislative powers at this time) was first elected in June 1998. This was in order to give the Assembly a period of approximately four years after receiving devolved authority. Under the Act, the Assembly must meet within 8 days beginning with the day of the poll at which it is elected. However, this requirement will be removed by the current Bill, provided s1 of the Northern Ireland Act 2000 is in force. Similarly, the Secretary of State’s power under s31(3) of the 1998 Act to alter the date of the election by order by a period not exceeding two months before or after the specified date is also removed.

Under s32 of the Act, the Secretary of State also has the power to specify the election date by Order if the period of six weeks specified in section 16(8) ends without a First and Deputy First Minister having been elected. Such an order was laid following problems with the devolution settlement in 2001, which led to the second one-day suspension of the Assembly on 21 September 2001. The six-week period specified in the Act ended on 3 November 2001 without a successful election, and the Secretary of State’s power was therefore exercised by the Northern Ireland (Date of Next Assembly Poll) Order 2001. This still specified the date as 1 May 2003 as the election in fact took place on 6 November 2001.39 This Order is subject to revocation by the Bill but the Secretary of State’s duty under s32 is not in turn revived as a result.

37 Bill 74-EN, para 16 38 s31(2) 39 SI 2001/3959, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2001/20013959.htm. The decision to proceed with the restoration of devolution outside the period of six weeks led to a legal challenge by the DUP which ultimately failed by 3-2 in the House of Lords. Further information is available in the Constitution Unit’s Quarterly Monitoring Report, Northern Ireland, August 2002, available at http://www.ucl.ac.uk/constitution-unit/files/lh/mon_rep/ni/ni_august_2002.pdf

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1. By elections

By-elections may be held under section 35 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, although the provisions must be made by order of the Secretary of State. In practice, with an STV system, by-elections are unlikely. Instead para 6 of the Northern Ireland Assembly (Elections) Order provides for a substitute procedure.40 Only where no suitable candidate exists does a by-election take place. The date is set by the Chief Electoral Officer and the usual timetable applies.

2. Fraud and postal voting

The Electoral Fraud (Northern Ireland) Act 2002 has introduced a number of new anti- fraud provisions.41 These include the use of electoral ID cards and other photographic ID cards as evidence of the voter’s identity at the polling station. This will be in force for the first time at the Assembly elections on 29 May 2003. The Explanatory Notes to the current Bill estimate that because of the extra time available to voters to register under the rolling registration scheme before the revised election there will be an additional cost of no more than £20,000.42

The postal voting deadlines remain very tight for the elector. However, there has historically been a high level of postal voting in Northern Ireland, indicating that a short timetable by itself has not previously been an inhibiting factor.

3. Campaign expenditure

The Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000 set limits on the amount of campaign expenditure that can be incurred during a ‘relevant period.’ The limit applying to campaign expenditure which is incurred by or on behalf of a registered party in the relevant period in Northern Ireland is £17,000 for each constituency contested by the party.43 Controlled expenditure, which relates to expenditure by or on behalf of a recognised third party, is limited to £15,300.44 Apart from UK general elections, the ‘relevant period’ is normally four months; the Bill will allow the ‘relevant period’ to begin four months before the poll on 29 May 2003, ending on that date.

4. Local elections

Local elections in Northern Ireland are held on a four-year cycle under Article 3 of the Electoral Law (Northern Ireland) Order 1972.45 These elections are not affected by the

40 SI 2001/2599, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si2001/20012599.htm 41 Cap 13, 2002, http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts2002/20020013.htm 42 Bill 74-EN, para 17 43 Cap 41, 2000, schedule 9 para 7, available at http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts2000/20000041.htm 44 Ibid, Schedule 10 para 9 45 SI 1972/1264 (NI 13)

19 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 provisions of the Bill as there are no local elections due to be held in Northern Ireland this year.

D. Reaction

According to the BBC, the Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams described proposed imposition of sanctions on politicians who break the ceasefire as “a major stumbling block.” He went on to say:

We do not accept sanctions against any party if those sanctions are outside the terms of the Good Friday Agreement.

The BBC also commented that Sir Reg Empey of the UUP had given a “muted reaction to the announcement,” saying his party “had entered negotiations on the understanding that Republicans had to decommission and accept sanctions.” He was quoted as saying "We will go to our party when we feel these issues have been resolved."46

Democratic Unionist Party leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, later said:

Northern Ireland has had too many false dawns. What is required is new negotiations leading to a new agreement. The Government is seeking to manipulate the people of Northern Ireland by playing with the election date. It seems the Government now wish to suspend democracy in an attempt to manipulate the election result and prop up the UUP.

Just as they sought to fool the electorate five years ago they are doing so again. The Government and the UUP may seek to run from the election and the verdict of the people but ultimately they cannot hide.47

In a press release issued on 6 March 2003, the Sinn Fein leader in the Dáil and spokesperson on the peace process, Caoimhghin Ó Caoláin, said that

The two governments have agreed on sanctions which would clearly be aimed at Sinn Féin. This is not acceptable and we have told the governments this. It is especially disappointing that the Irish Government has backed such a negative proposal.

Sanctions will serve only to destabilize the process. The conduct of the Unionist Party since the Agreement was signed shows the potential for further disruption of the process which sanctions would create. We have seen repeated walkouts by David Trimble with the British government facilitating suspensions of the institutions on his behalf.

46 “NI elections delayed for talks”, BBC News website, 5 March 2003, available at http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/2820489.stm 47 DUP press release, Ulster Unionists agree concessions to IRA,5March2003

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Our negotiators have reported that progress has been made over a range of issues, including new legislation on Policing and Criminal Justice, demilitarisation, equality and human rights issues. There are also gaps and our party will have to assess in detail the position after the Hillsborough talks.48

Speaking at a news conference on Monday 10 March, Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble said that he needed an IRA statement saying that ‘the war is over’. He continued:

“The Ulster Unionist Party will be sending a senior delegation to Washington this week to set out our position to the United States administration on the current political 'logjam' caused by the failure of Irish Republicans to act, and act quickly," he said. "Ideally we would like Washington to deliver a blunt unequivocal message to Irish Republicans and I would suggest to the administration that if Sinn Fein and the IRA fail this final test then the US should reconsider its whole approach to them."49

Mark Durkan, leader of the Social Democratic and Labour Party, was quoted as saying:

“The governments seem to be wound up in a process that is not about resolving default but parties finding fault with each other," he said. "That is only going to create a whinge whinge situation whereas what the SDLP want is a win win situation in terms of the total implementation of the Agreement for everyone."50

E. Precedents for the postponement of elections

There are various precedents for the postponement of elections in the UK. In 2001, the local government elections were postponed from 3 May 2001 until 7 June 2001 because of concern about the effect the outbreak of foot and mouth disease would have on the election campaign. The Elections Act 2001 made this change. 51 The Act also postponed local elections in Northern Ireland, moving the polling day from Wednesday 16 May to Thursday 7 June. There were thought to be particular difficulties in combining the elections in Northern Ireland because two different types of electoral systems would be in use simultaneously – Single Transferable Vote and First Past the Post - causing potential

48 Sinn Féin press release, Progress made but ``disappointment'' at Irish Government position,6March 2003 49 “Republicans ‘can save process’”, BBC News online, 10 March 2003, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/2836129.stm 50 Ibid 51 See Library Research Paper 01/44, The Elections Bill, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2001/rp01-044.pdf

21 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 confusion to electors.52 In practice, the combined elections seemed not to present difficulties for electors.

Local government legislation has altered the dates of certain local authority elections as part of the process of local government reorganisation in the 1990s. The dates have generally been altered through primary legislation.53 Prior to 2001, cancellation of ordinary local elections apart from reasons of local government reorganisation appeared unprecedented in peacetime. At the beginning of the Second World War, the Local Elections and Register of Electors (Temporary Provisions) Act 1939 suspended all local elections for the duration of the war. It was renewed annually until 1944.54 Local government elections were held in 1945.55

In 1986, the ordinary election for county councils and for local government elections in Scotland was held on 8 May, instead of 1 May. The change was made by the Representation of the People Act 1985 and took account of the fact that 1 May 1986 was the last day of the Passover.56

For the abolition of the Greater London Council and the metropolitan county councils, the Government introduced a bill57 to cancel the GLC elections for their scheduled date of 1985 and to substitute nominees from the London boroughs to run the Council. This bill met overwhelming opposition in the Lords, and a wrecking amendment was carried. This forced the then Secretary of State, Patrick Jenkin, to announce that the existing GLC and metropolitan county councils would be allowed to continue until abolition, scheduled for 1986. The bill was eventually passed, with Government amendments at report stage. Thus, the elections were cancelled through primary legislation.58

Following the publication on 28 October 2002 of the Combining local elections, Greater London Authority elections and European Parliament Elections in 2004 consultation paper,59 measures were included in the Local Government Bill 2002/03 giving the Secretary of State the power to move the date of the 2004 local council and Greater London Authority elections – currently scheduled for 6 May - so that they coincide with

52 Raised by Willie Ross MP, HC Deb 2 April 2001 vol 366 c36 53 The Local Government Act 1972 contained a power for the Secretary of State to alter the timing of London borough elections by affirmative order. This power was used in 1976 to extend the period between elections from three years to four, to bring London authorities in line with the four-year term used elsewhere. See Library Research Paper 99/46, Local Elections: Proposals for Reform for background, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp99/rp99-046.pdf. 54 See David Butler’s The Electoral System in Britain since 1918,p87 55 See Tables 18.01-18.02 of British Electoral Facts 1832-1999 ed Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher for the types of elections held 56 s18(1) 57 The Local Government (Interim Provisions) Bill, Bill 145, 1983-84 58 Beyond Our Ken: A Guide to the Battle for London, Andrew Forrester et al 1986 59 Available at http://www.local-regions.odpm.gov.uk/consult/comb_elec/index.htm. See Library Standard Note SN/PC/ 1994, Combining local elections, Greater London Authority elections and European Parliament Elections in 2004, 3 January 2003

22 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 the European Parliament elections on 10 June.60 The Bill gives the same power to the National Assembly for Wales in relation to Welsh elections. The Bill has not yet received Royal Assent.

III The devolution settlement in Northern Ireland

Full background to the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement is given in Research Papers 98/5761 and 98/76.62 A summary of progress was given in Research Paper 99/49, produced in May 1999.63 Further information is also given in Research paper 00/6, Disqualification Bill,64 and 00/13, the Northern Ireland Bill.65

The Belfast Agreement of 10 April 1998 proposed an overall settlement of the constitutional and security position of Northern Ireland, to feature:

• new legislation by both the UK and Irish governments • a new Northern Ireland Assembly • a new North/South Ministerial Council • a new British-Irish Council to bring together representatives from devolved administrations and the two governments, as well as the Isle of Man and Channel Isles • a new British-Irish Agreement to replace the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement • a process for decommissioning weapons held by paramilitary groups • a programme for the accelerated release of paramilitary prisoners. • the creation of a Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission and an Equality Commission • an independent commission to make recommendations for future policing arrangements in Northern Ireland • a review of criminal justice66 The Belfast Agreement was endorsed by a referendum on 22 May 1998 in both Northern Ireland and the Republic. In Northern Ireland, 71 per cent of those voting, on an 81 per cent turnout, backed the agreement. In the Republic, 94 per cent, on a 56 per cent turnout, were in favour. Elections to the new Northern Ireland Assembly were held on

60 Bill 9, 2002/03 61 Northern Ireland: political developments since 1972, 11 May 1998, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp98/rp98-057.pdf 62 The Northern Ireland Bill: implementing the Belfast Agreement, 20 July 1998, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp98/rp98-076.pdf 63 The Northern Ireland (Location of Victims’ Remains) Bill, 7 May 1999, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp99/rp99-049.pdf 64 http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2000/rp00-006.pdf 65 http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2000/rp00-013.pdf 66 See Review of Criminal Justice in Northern Ireland: Progress Report from www.nio.gov.uk/990415cz- cjp.htm

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25 June 1998 under the Northern Ireland (Elections) Ac 1998t, which was given Royal Assent on 7 May 1998. The SDLP gained the highest percentage of first preference votes (21.96%) for the first time in a Northern Ireland election, with the UUP following at 21.26%.

Statistics on the 1998 election and the 2001 General Election are given in Appendix One. The Assembly had its first meeting on 1 July. David Trimble (Ulster Unionist Party) and Seamus Mallon (Social Democratic and Labour Party) were elected First and Deputy First Minister designate respectively. Mr Mallon was subsequently replaced by Mark Durkan (SDLP) in November 2001.

Following the passage of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, whichwasgivenRoyalAssent on 19 November 1998, powers were formally devolved to Northern Ireland on the appointed day, 2 December 1999. On this day, powers were transferred to the Northern Ireland Ministers; the British-Irish Agreement (annexed to the Belfast Agreement)came into force; changes to Articles 2 and 3 of the Irish Constitution, and the British constitutional changes in sections 1 and 2 of the Northern Ireland Act took effect and the North-South Ministerial Council, the British Irish Council and the British Irish Intergovernmental Conference were established. The six implementation bodies, agreed on 18 December 1998, were established and the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement ceased to have effect.

Under the d’Hondt (mathematical) procedure,67 the parties were represented in the power- sharing Executive as follows:

UUP 3 SDLP 3 DUP 2 SF 2

A. Devolved powers

As a result of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, the Northern Ireland Assembly can govern Northern Ireland in respect of ‘transferred matters’, and also ‘reserved matters’ with the Secretary of State’s consent. Excepted matters remain the responsibility of the United Kingdom Parliament.

Under s4 and schedule 2 of the Northern Ireland Act 1998, certain matters are excepted from devolution. These include the Crown, defence, immigration, elections and political parties. Certain other matters are reserved, and these include civil aviation, navigation, the Post Office, disqualification from membership of the Assembly, criminal law, emergency powers, civil defence, consumer protection and telecommunications. Finally, transferred matters include education, health, social services, the arts, financial services and agriculture. The Northern Ireland Assembly has the power to make primary

67 Explained in Library Research paper 98/113, Voting systems – the Government’s proposals, December 1998, available at http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp98/rp98-113.pdf

24 RESEARCH PAPER 03/21 legislation on transferred matters. Public bills can be introduced by a Minister (Executive Bill), a Member of the Assembly (Private Members’ Bill) or one of the Assembly's Statutory Committees. This does not alter the Westminster Parliament’s power to make laws for Northern Ireland.68

The Assembly has previously been suspended between February and May 2000, and on single days on 10 August 2001 and 21 September 2001.

68 Ibid, s5

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Appendix One: Northern Ireland election results 1998 & 2001

Table 1 Elections in Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland Assembly elections: 25 June 1998

Party First Preference Votes %Votes Seats %Seats

SDLP 177,963 22.0% 24 22.2% Ulster Unionist 172,225 21.3% 28 25.9% Democratic Unionist 146,917 18.1% 20 18.5% Sinn Féin 142,858 17.6% 18 16.7% Alliance 52,636 6.5% 6 5.6% United Kingdom Unionists 36,541 4.5% 5 4.6% Progressive Unionist Party 20,634 2.5% 2 1.9% NI Women's Coalition 13,019 1.6% 2 1.9% Ulster Democratic Party 8,651 1.1% 0 0.0% Others 38,801 4.8% 3 2.8%

Total 810,245 100% 108

Sources: British Electoral Facts: 1832-1999, Rallings and Thrasher CAIN web service (cain.ulst.ac.uk)

2001 General Election: Summary of voting in Northern Ireland

Votes Number % share 1997 votes Change Candidates MPs Party in share

Ulster Unionist 216,839 26.8 258,349 -5.9 17 6 Democratic Unionist 181,999 22.5 107,348 +8.9 14 5 Sinn Fein 175,933 21.7 126,921 +5.7 18 4 SDLP 169,865 21.0 190,814 -3.2 18 3 Alliance 28,999 3.6 62,972 -4.4 10 UK Unionist 13,509 1.7 12,817 +0.0 1 Independent 8,379 1.0 4,869 +0.4 3 Progressive Unionists 4,781 0.6 10,928 -0.8 2 Northern Ireland Women's Coalition 2,968 0.4 1 Conservative 2,422 0.3 9,858 -0.9 3 Workers Party 2,352 0.3 2,766 -0.1 6 Northern Ireland Unionist 1,794 0.2 2 Vote For Yourself 418 0.1 4 Third Way 116 0.0 1

Total 810,374 100.0 790,762 100 18

Source: House of Commons Library General Election dataset

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Appendix Two: Deaths, casualties and security services in Northern Ireland Table 2 Deaths connected with the civil disturbances in Northern Ireland: 1969-2003 Regular Police (inc reserves) UDR/RIR Army Civilians Total 1969 1 - - 13 14 1970 2 - - 23 25 1971 11 5 43 115 174 1972 17 26 105 322 470 1973 13 8 58 173 252 1974 15 7 30 168 220 1975 11 6 14 216 247 1976 23 15 14 245 297 1977 14 14 15 69 112 1978 10 7 14 50 81 1979 14 10 38 51 113 1980 9 9 8 50 76 1981 21 13 10 57 101 1982 12 7 21 57 97 1983 18 10 5 44 77 1984 9 10 9 36 64 1985 23 4 2 26 55 1986 12 8 4 37 61 1987 16 8 3 68 95 1988612215594 1989 9 2 12 39 62 1990 12 8 7 49 76 1991 6 8 5 75 94 1992 3 2 4 76 85 1993 6 2 6 70 84 1994 3 2 1 56 62 1995 1 - - 8 9 1996 - - 1 14 15 1997 4 - 1 17 22 1998 1 - 1 53 55 1999 - - - 7 7 2000 - - - 18 18 2001 - - - 17 17 2002 - - - 13 13 2003 (a) - - - 4 4

Total 302 203 452 2,391 3,348

(a) To 9 March

Source: PSNI Security Situation and Public Order- http://www.psni.police.uk/stats/securitysit.shtml

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Table 3 Injuries connected with the civil disturbances 1969-2003

Regular Police (inc. reserves) UDR/RIR Army Civilians Total 1968 379 - - .. 379 1969 711 - 54 .. 765 1970 191 - 620 .. 811 1971 315 9 381 1,887 2,592 1972 485 36 542 3,813 4,876 1973 291 23 525 1,812 2,651 1974 235 30 453 1,680 2,398 1975 263 16 151 2,044 2,474 1976 303 22 242 2,162 2,729 1977 183 15 172 1,017 1,387 1978 302 8 127 548 985 1979 165 21 132 557 875 1980 194 24 53 530 801 1981 332 28 112 878 1,350 1982 99 18 80 328 525 1983 142 22 66 280 510 1984 267 22 64 513 866 1985 415 13 20 468 916 1986 622 10 45 773 1,450 1987 246 12 92 780 1,130 1988 218 18 211 600 1,047 1989 163 15 175 606 959 1990 214 24 190 478 906 1991 139 56 197 570 962 1992 148 18 302 598 1,066 1993 147 27 146 504 824 1994 170 6 120 529 825 1995 370 5 8 554 937 1996 459 2 53 905 1,419 1997 357 14 136 730 1,237 1998 435 17 70 1,130 1,652 1999 395 16 20 552 983 2000 446 2 25 591 1,064 2001 876 11 44 667 1,598 2002 456 38 39 628 1,161 2003 (a) 3 - - 43 46

Total 11,136 598 5,667 29,755 47,156

(a) To 31 January

Source: PSNI Security Situation and Public Order- http://www.psni.police.uk/stats/securitysit.shtml

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Table 4: Casualties as a Result of Paramilitary-Style Attacks 1973 - 2003

Shootings Assaults* Total Casualties TotalBy TotalBy By (Shootings By Loyalist Republican Loyalist Republican Groups Groups Groups Groups & Assaults)

1973 74 21 53 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1974 127 43 84 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1975 189 50 139 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1976 98 36 62 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1977 126 28 98 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1978 67 17 50 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1979 76 25 51 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1980 77 26 51 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1981 80 14 66 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1982 81 22 59 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1983 31 9 22 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1984 26 6 20 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1985 32 11 21 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1986 41 24 17 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1987 124 67 57 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1988 66 34 32 56 21 35 122 1989 161 65 96 51 23 28 212 1990 106 60 46 68 21 47 174 1991 76 40 36 62 22 40 138 1992 133 72 61 74 36 38 207 1993 85 60 25 41 35 6 126 1994 122 68 54 70 38 32 192 1995 3 3 0 217 76 141 220 1996 24 21 3 302 130 172 326 1997 72 46 26 156 78 78 228 1998 72 34 38 144 89 55 216 1999 73 47 26 134 90 44 207 2000 136 86 50 132 78 54 268 2001 186 121 65 146 93 53 332 2002 173 117 56 139 89 50 312

2002 47 29 18 13 9 4 60 (to 9/03/02) 2003 35 24 11 13 10 3 48 (to 9/03/03)

*Beatings

NOTE: 2002 and 2003 statistics are provisional at this stage and may be subject to minor amendment in the future.

Source: PSNI Security Situation and Public Order- http://www.psni.police.uk/stats/securitysit.shtml

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Table 5 Strength of security forces in Northern Ireland 1969 to date (a)

Regular forces RUC/PSNI RN/RM Army RAF total UDR/RIR RUC/PSNI reserve 1969 515 2,926 1,461 4,902 -3,061- 1970 259 7,245 1,312 8,816 3,326 3,044 - 1971 128 10,410 562 11,100 4,151 3,809 436 1972 1,661 12,949 713 15,323 6,741 4,086 1,284 1973 302 17,250 830 18,382 9,098 4,257 2,134 1974 266 15,827 898 16,991 7,816 4,391 2,514 1975 287 14,564 881 15,732 7,676 4,564 3,860 1976 302 14,454 871 15,627 7,793 4,902 4,819 1977 221 14,262 944 15,427 7,616 5,253 4,697 1978 198 14,159 930 15,287 7,812 5,692 4,686 1979 143 12,727 834 13,704 7,761 6,110 4,605 1980 797 11,970 622 13,389 7,425 6,642 4,514 1981 124 11,114 905 12,143 7,431 6,943 4,752 1982 118 10,885 796 11,799 7,350 7,334 4,870 1983 135 10,375 847 11,357 7,026 7,718 4,840 1984 131 9,294 835 10,260 6,929 8,003 4,493 1985 162 9,180 880 10,222 6,468 8,127 4,439 1986 184 8,912 994 10,090 6,508 8,259 4,508 1987 191 9,920 1,047 11,158 6,535 8,234 4,414 1988 163 9,645 1,079 10,887 6,364 8,236 4,646 1989 139 9,695 1,141 10,975 6,312 8,227 4,654 1990 234 9,578 1,165 10,977 6,208 8,259 4,623 1991 233 9,403 941 10,577 6,106 8,243 4,544 1992 197 11,314 1,046 12,557 5,988 8,222 4,561 1993 258 11,141 1,108 12,507 5,613 8,478 4,593 1994 182 11,003 1,127 12,312 5,500 8,464 4,573 1995 217 8,520 1,155 9,892 5,172 8,493 4,690 1996 296 9,356 1,102 10,754 4,947 8,415 4,685 1997 321 10,360 1,091 11,772 4,727 8,423 4,402 1998 191 9,722 1,117 11,030 4,607 8,485 4,306 1999 na na na na na na na 2000 189 7,109 1,088 8,386 4,115 8,393 3,840 2001 150 8,150 1,080 9,380 3,293 7,810 3,425 2002 150 4,620 380 5,150 3,600 6,976 3,185

Notes: (a) The service manpower figures are for 1 January except for 1969 to 1971 and 1991 to 2002 which are for 1 July; RAF figures for 1996 & 1997 are for 1 September The UDR/RIR figures (which cover full-time and part-time members) are for 1 January except for 1969 to 1971 and 1994 to 1996 which are for 1 July and 1991 to 1993 which are for 1 April. The 1997 figure is for 30 September. The RUC figures (those for the Reserve cover full-time and part-time members) are for 1 January except for 1969 which are for 1 July; PSNI are for 31 March (b) 1997 figure for the Army includes the Province Reserve Battalion and the Rural Reinforcement Battalion which are fully committed to Northern Ireland although only one company of each is currently deployed in the Province.

Sources: HC Deb 12.7.90 c336W and earlier written answers Defence Statistics 1992, 1993 Table 3.11 MoD Statistical Return TSP 10 Northern Ireland Annual Abstract of Statistics 1987 Table 4.12, 1992 Table 4.5 Annual Report of Chief Constable of RUC Ministry of Defence HC Deb 6 November 1997 c323-4w UK Regular Forces Distribution across UK, DASA, TSP 10 Chief Constable's Annual Report, PSNI, Various Years