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Updated Economic Data) KASIKORNBANK Investor Presentation as of 1Q21 (Updated Economic Data) June 2021 For further information, please contact the Investor Relations Unit or visit our website at www.kasikornbank.com 1 KASIKORNBANK at a Glance Established on June 8, 1945 with registered capital of Bt5mn (USD0.16mn) Listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) since 1976 Consolidated (as of March 2021) Assets Bt3,767bn (USD120.2bn) Ranked #4 with 15.8% market share** Loans* Bt2,302bn (USD73.5bn) Ranked #3 with 16.8% market share** Deposits Bt2,401bn (USD76.6bn) Ranked #3 with 16.5% market share** CAR 18.44% *** ROE (1Q21) 9.57% **** ROA (1Q21) 1.14% Number of Branches 859 Number of E-Machine (ATM/RCM) 10,864 Number of K PLUS Users 15.0mn Number of Employees 19,511 Share Information SET Symbol KBANK, KBANK-F Share Capital: Authorized Bt30.2bn (USD1.0bn) Issued and Paid-up Bt23.7bn (USD0.8bn) Number of Shares 2.4bn shares Market Capitalization Bt344bn (USD10.9bn) Ranked #2 in Thai banking sector 1Q21 Avg. Share Price: KBANK Bt136.25 (USD4.35) KBANK-F Bt136.16 (USD4.34) EPS Bt4.35 (USD0.14) BVPS Bt184.22 (USD5.88) Notes: * Loans = Loans to customers less deferred revenue ** Assets, loans and deposits market share is based on C.B.1.1 (Monthly statement of assets and liabilities) of 14 Thai commercial banks as of March 2021 *** Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) has been reported in accordance with Basel III Capital Requirement from 1 January 2013 onwards. CAR is based on KASIKORNBANK FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATE. KASIKORNBANK FINANCIAL CONGLOMERATE means the company under the Notification of the Bank of Thailand re: Consolidated Supervision, consisted of KBank, K Companies and subsidiaries operating in supporting KBank, Phethai Asset Management Co., Ltd. and other subsidiaries within the permitted scope from the BOT’s to be financial conglomerate **** ROE = Net profit (attributable to equity holders of the Bank) deduct dividend from other equity instruments after income tax divided by average equity of equity excluded other equity instruments Exchange rate at the end of March 2021 (Mid Rate) was Bt31.34 per USD (Source: Bank of Thailand) 2 Table of Contents Topic Slide Page Operating Environment 5 - 6 2021 Financial Targets 7 The K-Strategy 8 - 9 Financial Performance 10 - 16 Capital and Dividend 17 - 18 Summary 19 Appendix 20 - 160 3 Appendix Topic Slide Page KBank Strategy 21-44 Business Highlights 45-52 Risk and Credit Management 53-65 Financial Performance 66-83 • Y2021 Highlights 66-69 • Interest Income - net 70 • Non-interest Income 71 • Net Fee Income 72-73 • Other Operating Expenses 74 • Loan 75-76 • Asset Quality 77-79 • Investment in Securities and Funding Structure 80-83 The Wholly-owned Subsidiaries 84-91 Muang Thai Life Assurance (MTL) 92-100 Other Information 101-110 Banking System and Regulations Update 111-119 Government Policy 120-137 Thai Economic Figures 138-158 IR Contact Information and Disclaimer 159-160 4 Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2021 Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions 5.0 2.4 1.8 Key Points: 0.0 The projected base case for 2021 GDP growth ranges from %YoY -5.0 0.0 to 2.4%, on condition that foreign tourist arrivals will number -10.0 -6.1 2019 2020 2021F around 0.25-1.2 million this year However, uncertainties lie within the economic impact of the 2021F* new COVID-19 outbreak and vaccination progress 2021F* % YoY (Previous) 2019 2020 Improving export outlook and continued government stimulus Base measures will support economic recovery Range Base Case Range Case GDP 2.4 -6.1 1.8 0.0-2.4 1.8 0.0-2.4 It may take at least 2 years, until 2023, for Thai GDP to return to its pre-COVID-19 level Private Consumption 4.5 -1.0 2.8 1.9-3.4 0.9 0.5-2.0 Government Consumption 1.4 0.8 3.0 2.5-3.5 3.0 2.5-3.5 Total Investment 2.2 -4.8 2.0 1.4-3.0 4.6 3.6-6.1 Risk Factors: - Private investment 2.8 -8.4 1.0 0.5-1.5 3.5 2.5-5.0 New COVID-19 outbreak and possible COVID variant - Public investment 0.2 5.7 6.1 5.1-8.4 8.5 7.5.10.0 Domestic distribution of COVID-19 vaccine Gov't Budget Deficit (% of GDP) -2.9 -5.1 -5.3 -5.0 to -5.4 -5.3 -5.0 to -5.4 Exports (Customs Basis) -2.7 -6.0 7.0 6.7-9.5 9.0 7.0-9.6 Thai Baht volatility Imports (Customs Basis) -4.7 -12.4 10.0 9.6-12 15.5 13.5-16.6 Trade tensions and geopolitical risks Current Account (USD bn) 38.2 16.5 5.9 2.9-7.5 1.0 -0.3 to -2.6 Headline Inflation 0.7 -0.9 1.1 0.8-1.5 1.2 0.8-1.5 Household and business balance sheet deterioration if outbreak Policy Interest Rate*** 1.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 lasts longer than expected Notes: MPC’s policy rate is at 0.50% (as of May 5, 2021) represents a higher base case assumption, comparing with the previous forecast, represents a lower base case assumption, comparing with the previous forecast Source: * KResearch (as of June 10, 2021 vs forecast on April 20, 2021) ** KBank Capital Markets Research (as of January 19, 2021) 5 Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2021 Outlook Possible Impacts to Thai Economy Global Economy Global economy: Global recovery is expected to be uneven, due to progress on Thai economy is still highly vulnerable to pandemic vaccination and the COVID-19 situation in each country situation abroad and at home US: US economy will recover at a faster rate, due to the rapid pace of vaccinations With slow progress on a COVID-19 vaccine, and fiscal stimulus program tourism sector will take years to return to Eurozone: Europe’s economic recovery is expected to be slower than the US, due pre-COVID level to the COVID-19 resurgence and slow vaccine roll-out China: Chinese economy is expected to rebound strongly, as domestic and external demand is picking up ASEAN economies: ASEAN economies will likely see uneven economic revival, due to containment of COVID-19, political factors, and economic structure in each country Government Stimulus Plan Government may roll out additional short-term stimulus packages at a large scale to Supportive fiscal measures may help sustain offset economic impact caused by new COVID-19 outbreak domestic activities to some extent Government investment projects may be delayed, due to potential shortage of capital goods amid disrupted global supply chain Inflation Inflation is expected to increase to 1.1%, due to rising oil prices and recovery of Monetary policy expected to remain domestic and global demand accommodative to economic growth throughout 2021 Exports and Tourism Thai exports will rebound strongly, with faster-than-expected global economic Stronger than expected global economic recovery recovery provides an upside to Thai exports Tourist arrivals are expected to return in 4Q21, on condition that almost half of Thai population is vaccinated and the COVID-19 situation in Thailand is under control Fed Policy Normalization Fed would keep its ultra-monetary easing with Fed Funds rate of 0.00-0.25% and BOT likely maintains its policy rate at 0.50% in its quantitative easing throughout the year, as the economy remains on a pace of 2021, due to fiscal relief measures and new debt recovery measures amid new wave of COVID-19 Baht Baht hit around Bt31.8 per USD in late-June, after uncertainty over the Fed’s QE Despite an expected Baht appreciation, global trade tapering supported the USD sentiment in 1H21 will support Thai exporters’ revenue However, Baht would appreciate and hit Bt30.50 per USD at the end of 2021, as Meanwhile, BOT support is likely limited, as global economic recovery, more capital flows to Asia, and improving Thai current Thailand remains on the USTR’s watch list for account balance after border reopening currency manipulation Source: KResearch and KBank Capital Markets Research (as of June 21, 2021) 6 Y2021 Financial Targets Consolidated 2020 Actual 1Q21 Actual Y2021 Targets Note (Y2021) 1Q21 NIM declined YoY, mainly due to lower yield on loans from interest rate cut, deterioration of asset quality NIM 3.27% 3.16% 3.1-3.3% and loans in relief measures despite lower cost of deposit from savings rate cut. 2.56% YTD 1Q21 YTD loans grew mainly from SMEs (mainly from Loan Growth 12.13% YTD 4-6% COVID-19 relief measures), retail lending using data 12.69% YoY analytics capability, and corporate business. Net Fee Income Low single digit 1Q21 net fee income increased 6.56% YoY and increased -10.17% 6.56% YoY 13.60% QoQ, mainly from fund management business Growth* growth rate and brokerage fee. 1Q21 cost to income decreased YoY mainly due to a Cost to Income managed expenses in economic slowdown; but cost to 45.19% 41.30% Mid-40s income will rise seasonally in 2H21. Ratio** Focus on cost management and productivity improvement, with new investments for future growth. Credit Cost per year Credit Cost: Maintain conservative assumptions and 205 bps 152 bps Up to 160 bps (bps) prudent financial policy amid high uncertainties related to COVID-19. Relief measure help limit short-term impact on asset quality; while, asset quality is closely monitored and NPL Ratio (Gross)*** 3.93% 3.93% 4.0-4.5% constantly reviewed.
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