March 2021 • perenews.com roundtable 2021 Analysis

ROUNDTABLE

SUPPORTERS ARES MANAGEMENT CORPORATION • BC PARTNERS • KENNEDY WILSON EUROPE • PICTET ALTERNATIVE ADVISORS SAVILLS • SIGNA FINANCIAL SERVICES Covid rings the changes for European real estate

As the initial shock of the pandemic recedes, participants at the Europe roundtable survey an altered investment landscape. Stuart Watson reports

n 2020, the fallout from the coro- buckle down to the task of addressing the spring, capital kept flowing into navirus pandemic jolted Europe’s the front-of-mind questions for inves- real estate, notes Zsolt Kohalmi, glob- real estate market and induced tors in the region. al head of real estate at Swiss-based temporary paralysis. The result They agree that European real es- Pictet Alternative Advisors. “When you was a significant fallaway in invest- tate is in a better shape to recover from have open-ended funds getting capital ment volumes. According to real the pandemic-induced downturn than every month, that means that the pro- Iestate deal data firm Real Capital An- it was after the global financial crisis. pensity to deploy is going to remain. alytics, Q4 2020 deals plummeted to “This time there was not overbuilding And as a core buyer, your returns are €75.8 billion, 44 percent below the re- in most sectors, or overlending because being measured against the risk-free gion’s peak volume recorded in the last banks were still unable to participate,” rate, which is only going one way. So, three months of 2019. In a fate com- observes Bill Benjamin, head of real on a relative basis, core looks better and pounded by a third slew of lockdowns, estate at global better, and you keep deploying.” that meant the total European invest- manager Ares Management. While funds continued to flow ment volume for 2020 was 27 percent “There was a world of difference into perpetual life vehicles, closed-end lower than the previous year. in the policy response this time round fundraising in Europe was a different Now, with the initial shock fading, compared to the GFC,” adds Peter story with plenty of instances of fund- the industry is beginning to assess the Collins, president of Kennedy Wilson raising extension requests by managers lasting effects of the crisis. Meeting by Europe. “The European Central Bank unable to reach a final close amid travel videoconference from work and home was much quicker to react and so was restrictions imposed by governments. offices across the continent, the six par- the European Union on the fiscal side.” According to PERE data, $25.4 billion ticipants at PERE’s Europe roundtable Thus, following a brief hiatus in was raised for European closed-end

36 PERE • March 2021 Analysis Bill Benjamin

Partner and head of real estate group Ares Management Corporation

Based in London, Benjamin is head of real estate at global alternative investment manager Ares, where he oversees the real estate group’s investment activity worldwide. The firm manages around $179 billion of assets, primarily in the private markets, including $14.4 billion of real estate in opportunistic and value-add strategies in Europe and the US, and in US real estate debt.

Kiran Patel

Global chief investment officer and deputy global chief executive officer Savills Investment Management

Patel joined Savills IM, the investment management arm of global real estate services provider Savills Group, eight years ago. The business manages around $25 billion of real estate assets, employing a team of 300 professionals located in 16 offices across Europe and Asia. Peter Collins

President Kennedy Wilson Europe

Collins has been with global Zsolt Kohalmi property company and investment manager Kennedy Global head of real estate and co-chief Wilson since 2011 and now executive officer leads its European business. Pictet Alternative Advisors Quoted in the US, the firm has $17 billion of in strategies that Kohalmi joined Pictet from Starwood Capital span the risk spectrum from two years ago to build the Swiss financial development to core-plus services firm’s real estate business. Pictet and sectors including offices, manages €560 billion overall, including around multifamily and industrial. €4 billion of real estate. The company closed its first direct real estate fund, Elevation I, at its hard-cap of €700 million in February 2020.

March 2021 • PERE 37 funds, 12 percent more than in 2019 but 44 percent down on the region’s peak fundraising year in 2017. Nevertheless, participants Pictet and BC Partners both raised first-time funds in 2020. Pictet closed its vehi- Stéphane Theuriau cle in February before the pandemic started. But BC Partners head of real Partner and head of real estate Stéphane Theuriau endured the estate challenges of fundraising during the BC Partners pandemic. “As a new entrant our experience is that there is a lot of available capital Paris-based Theuriau for existing players. We raised money joined BC Partners in 2018 exclusively from existing relationships. to launch the company’s The large managers have dispropor- real estate business, and tionately benefited during this period, has led an €800 million because it is such an easy decision for fundraise for its first an investor to re-up based on past per- real estate vehicle. The formance,” he says. London-headquartered Capital providers were very selective firm manages around about which strategies to back, howev- Richard Johnson €25 billion of assets er, notes Kiran Patel, global chief in- overall, principally in vestment officer at Savills Investment Managing director and and Management. “The core end of the head of international strategies. market became even more expensive, capital markets because people saw that as providing SIGNA Financial Services stability while everyone was waiting for price discovery on the more distressed areas, which did not really materialize.” Johnson joined SIGNA two years ago to Favored sectors expand the Austrian- As the pandemic drags on, the initial headquartered group’s expectation of a V-shaped recovery connections among across the whole market has been re- non-German speaking placed with a growing realization that institutions. The privately there will be long-term consequenc- managed investment and es for some sectors, argues Richard holding company’s real Johnson, head of international capital estate division manages markets at investor-developer SIGNA. around €18 billion of “This year, we are going to be saying standing assets and is that the economy has split into winners undertaking €12 billion of and losers, which will recover at dif- development in , ferent rates, and that will affect invest- , and ment flows going forward.” Italy. The residential and logistics sec- tors, with their powerful narratives of resilience, have accounted for an in- creasing share of investment volume, says Patel. “Real Capital Analytics’ 2020 figures show that industrial has increased from 12 to 15 percent – everybody wants logistics, and that is Analysis

“We are social animals. I think productivity and morale is better in the office”

BILL BENJAMIN Ares

being reflected in pricing. Residential will radically rethink their occupational has gone from 20 to 24 percent. Office strategies. “Technology is also attack- came down from 44 percent to 40. But ing offices. This does not appear to be it was still a significant portion of the a real estate cycle or something that is market. Retail was the big loser.” “The core end driven by low GDP. If you look at of- The glut of capital demand for a fices pre-covid, it was pretty clear that few favored sectors presents investors of the market there was an accelerated obsolescence, with a dilemma, argues Kohalmi. “The and that what qualifies as core will be a real choice is which poison would you became even more smaller proportion of what exists.” like to take? A fully priced bet where Benjamin expects to see “a 10-15 the macro drivers are right? Or an expensive, because percent erosion of demand in rents and asset that faces slightly adverse condi- capital value for the time being, per- tions where you can get a better entry people saw that as haps even 20 percent.” However, he point? Making general calls is tough in providing stability” adds: “Zoom has helped our businesses a market with such elevated prices. We during the pandemic. But we are social all need to find the individual deals that animals. I think productivity and mo- make sense.” KIRAN PATEL rale is better in the office, and if you Savills IM Collins senses a window for acquir- are starting out in any business, I do ing distressed assets will open briefly not see how you advance in your career during the next two years. “For ex- from home.” ample, a lot of hotel operators have Offices under pressure Nevertheless, even a 15-20 percent suffered so that could shake out some While there is broad agreement among decline in office take-up could poten- opportunities,” he says. the participants about the prospects for tially cause huge value destruction, “But you have to get your tim- most asset classes, the office sector is says Theuriau. “Cap rates are so low ing right. Retail has the potential to the subject of vigorous debate. Theur- and rents are so high. It does not take be oversold. There are elements that iau argues that it is not only retail that much of a change in underwriting as- will survive like convenience and re- will be impacted by the acceleration of sumptions to get to a pretty dramatic tail warehousing. Overall, distress and technology-led disruption during the repricing.” repositioning will be the main val- pandemic. He notes that investment Patel says Savills IM will still con- ue-add themes that everyone is playing activity in the office segment halved in sider office opportunities. But he across sectors.” 2020, and predicts that many occupiers predicts the sector will go through a

March 2021 • PERE 39 Analysis

“Making general calls is tough in a market with such elevated prices. We all need to fi nd the individual deals that make sense”

ZSOLT KOHALMI Pictet

period of adjustment. “We do expect that are not core because it is the story residential as an emerging asset class a price reduction, and the offi ce sector everybody believes. What qualifi es as that has some of the credentials for does need to evolve. The model may core now is basically residential and in- core. It is very resilient, sticky income.” become more like the retail one, mov- dustrial with a huge cap rate compres- ing towards turnover-based rents and sion,” says Theuriau. Symptoms of change shorter leases.” “The more operationally intensive Pictures of deserted streets in some of While bond returns remain low, it is – hotels, leisure, anything where Europe’s capitals during covid lock- investors seeking steady cashfl ow and it is as much about the quality of the downs have led to speculation there comparatively high returns have a pow- manager as the bricks – the less appro- will be an exodus from big cities and a erful incentive to invest in core real es- priate it is for core,” argues Benjamin. revival of suburban fringe areas. The tate. But with clouds hanging over the The nascent multifamily residen- roundtable participants doubt there has offi ce sector, what constitutes a core tial sector in the UK and Ireland has been a lasting reversal of the urbaniza- investment in the post-pandemic mar- proved its robustness when tested by tion trend in Europe, however. ket? “There are some assets that peo- covid, suggests Collins, and therefore “What was obvious traveling in Eu- ple believe in, that are priced as core, deserves the designation. “The pan- rope last summer was that as soon as with underlying operational challenges demic has proved private rented sector people could go back to living as close to how they were living before covid, they did,” observes SIGNA’s Johnson. European commercial property sales activity, year-on-year change (%) “People returned to offi ces and restau- rants became full again. When consid- 50 ering the most resilient investments, 40 well-located buildings in vibrant city 30 centers like Berlin, Munich, Hamburg, 20 Vienna and are at the core of 10 the answer.” 0 “Young people who work in tech -10 want what large cities have,” adds Ben- -20 jamin. “They want good food, good -30 nightlife, interesting streetscapes. In Europe, for the most part, those are the -40 capital cities.” -50 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Kohalmi argues that in Europe,

40 PERE • March 2021 Analysis

Brexit gets real

Boris Johnson’s government signed a last-gasp trade deal with the EU just days before leaving the bloc on January 1. Now that more is known about the true shape of Brexit, the participants consider the impact on UK and European real “The economy has estate split into winners Benjamin: There is a free trade deal for most goods. But then there is anecdotal evidence of delays at the border and rotting meat. We really and losers, which don’t know yet what the full impact of Brexit will be on the UK economy. However, if you are from an unstable but wealthy part of the world, Brexit will recover at is not as much of a concern, and we continue to see capital inflows looking different rates” for a home in London. Patel: Only the goods side has been agreed. Services has not been part of RICHARD JOHNSON the negotiations yet, so the UK has lost its passporting right of access to SIGNA EU markets, and it will take time to figure out the full impact, particularly on the financial services side. That uncertainty is built into cap rates. For the first time, London prime office yields are higher than the likes of Paris, Amsterdam and Munich. unlike the US, the virus has had little impact on the which cities are favored Johnson: While some of the impact of Brexit on European markets has as investment locations. “The dis- already happened, particularly on the financial services industry in the UK, counts in most sectors in New York there will be more displacement toward the more attractive and well- right now show a clear belief among positioned continental European cities. investors that the city will take a long time to recover. We do not see that in Collins: The EU authorities have an ambition to make the bloc more Europe.” self-sufficient in financial services. They will try to move some activity He agrees with Collins that dis- to Europe. Instead of one European market emerging as a clear winner, tress and repositioning will be crucial that displaced demand is getting dispersed around. Some of it is going strategies in the post-coronavirus en- to Dublin, some to Luxembourg, some to Amsterdam among others. vironment, and while investors may Relocations will be positive for those smaller cities. But given the scale of not see as much distress as they would London, I doubt that any major financial services impact of Brexit will be like, repositioning will certainly be on visible there over a one to three-year period – 10 years is more likely. the agenda. “There will be some fun- damental shifts coming out of covid. Theuriau: We are seeing the fundraising activities of some very large I like the analogy with how previous players move to the EU. Luxembourg, which has been very successful as pandemics have affected real estate. a domicile to provide EU substance, will benefit further. The big loss for Central Park and the wide avenues in London is its tax advantage for bankers and fund managers. However, I Paris were created to avoid the trans- believe its appeal will endure because of its finance culture and talent pool. mission of disease.” Also, Boris Johnson has no choice but to make London attractive, so he will BC Partners is hoping to harness the probably bring back the tax advantages. same trend. “If you believe the nature

March 2021 • PERE 41 Analysis

Coveted properties: the Südkreuz office development in Berlin (left) and a Peach Property Group asset

The envy list

Which deals did the participants wish they control of what used to be a €30 billion market-cap had done in 2020? company was fantastic.”

Kohalmi: Ares pays SFr150 million ($169 million; Patel: German investor Deka Immobilien buys the €140 million) to become a 30 percent shareholder in Südkreuz office development in Berlin for around German residential manager Peach Property Group. “I €270 million. “That was one that got away. It was part will give Bill’s firm my vote. Accessing real estate through pre-leased, which would have enabled us to take some the public markets was quite attractive in 2020 because leasing risk, and had a very high ESG rating. But our there were discounts available and it was a way to play in exclusivity period ran out and we lost out to Deka, markets that were paralyzed for a time.” which ended up paying 15 percent more for it, which shows what a good deal it would have been.” Collins: AXA Investment Managers Real Assets’ purchase of Dolphin Square, a neo-Georgian private residential Benjamin: Brookfield Asset Management buys a complex in London’s Pimlico, from Westbrook Partners. £264 million ($365 million; €301 million) stake in “For long-term capital it was a great deployment. British Land, one of the largest UK REITs. “I wish Multifamily is all about scale and they have more than we had bought British Land and [fellow UK quoted 1,200 units there. London will survive and thrive in the property company] Landsec when their shares were at long term; the rents look like they can be grown, and their nadir. The paper was definitely cheaper than the there is clearly a long-term refurbishment play there as bricks at that point.” well.” Johnson: AXA Investment Managers Real Assets Theuriau: Real estate investor Léon Bressler and French acquires Kadans Science Partner, a developer, operator telecoms billionaire Xavier Niel win the support of and owner of European science parks, from Oaktree Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield shareholders, who vote to Capital Management for around €500 million. “Any halt the shopping center operator’s €3.5 billion rights issue investor expanding into life sciences pre-covid, before and grant their consortium three seats on the company’s the pricing went up, would pat themselves on the back. supervisory board. “The way they played the chessboard It is a really interesting new type of asset that could well so rapidly to convert a difficult position into taking become core over time.”

42 PERE • March 2021 Analysis

“Technology is also attacking

“Distress and offi ces. This does not appear repositioning will to be a real estate cycle or be the main value- add themes that something that is driven by everyone is playing across sectors” low GDP”

PETER COLLINS STÉPHANE THEURIAU Kennedy Wilson BC Partners

of demand is changing, you have to adds Johnson. “There will be eff ects already testing to deploy capital in Eu- believe that investing to convert those from covid. We can see some of the ropean real estate before the pandemic. assets is a way to protect yourself,” says symptoms of change. But we do not yet But while the crisis has further reduced Theuriau. “We raised our fund on the know the direction of change. If you the menu of palatable choices availa- thesis that we were at the beginning of own large blocks in the heart of cities, ble in European real estate, and raised a big repositioning and cap-ex cycle. It you control locations that are irreplace- questions over the future of some as- is more carbon effi cient than building able. It is then about fi nding what uses sets, investor appetite remains strong new space, and old assets tend to be fi t best for the next 10-20 years. That is nonetheless. For managers, meeting better located.” where you create value.” return expectations has rarely been so That is “almost our business plan,” A hot market meant that it was challenging. n

2020 European sector subtype deal trends

Deal volume, year-on-year change (%) 10 Suburban offi ce 0 Apartment

-10 CBD offi ce Logistics -20 Other retail Development site -30 Other industrial -40 Shopping center Hotel -50 Student housing Grocery -60 Senior housing -70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 Deal count, year-on-year change (%) Apartments exclude student housing Source all charts: Real Capital Analytics

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commercial activity, and contributed to significant in supply chains and economic activity and are having Coronavirus and Public volatility in certain equity and debt markets. The a particularly adverse impact on transportation, Health Emergency Risks global impact of the outbreak is rapidly evolving, and hospitality, tourism, entertainment and other industries. many countries have reacted by instituting quarantines, The impact of COVID-19 has led to significant volatility prohibitions on travel and the closure of offices, and declines in the global public equity markets and it As of March 17, 2020, there is an outbreak of a novel businesses, schools, retail stores, and other public is uncertain how long this volatility will continue. As and highly contagious form of coronavirus venues. Businesses are also implementing similar COVID-19 continues to spread, the potential impacts, (“COVID-19”), which the World Health precautionary measures. Such measures, as well as including a global, regional or other economic recession, Organization has declared to constitute a pandemic. the general uncertainty surrounding the dangers and are increasingly uncertain and difficult to assess. The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in numerous impact of COVID-19, are creating significant disruption deaths, adversely impacted global

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