A New Energy Vision for Canada

A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 1 endorsements Government Clean Air Landscaping Equiterre Faith Organizations endorsements More than 150 companies, City of North Vancouver, British Columbia Courtney Agencies Ltd. Fraserside Community Services Society Faith and the Common Good organizations, and City of Burnaby, British Columbia Black River Hydro Falls Brook Centre Canadian Memorial United Church governments support Gitga’at First Nation Black River Wind Sightline Institute Oikos Network this document. District of Saanich, Victoria, British Columbia Sea Breeze Power Corp Ecotrust Canada Noor Cultural Centre His Worship Mayor Ken Melamed, Resort Eclipse Awards International Inc. Ontario Sustainable Energy Association The Palyul Foundation of Canada Municipality of Whistler, British Columbia Dynamic Cities Project Wildsight Orgyan Osal Cho Dzong Temple His Worship Mayor Mike Bernier, Lanefab Design/Build Sustainable SFU and Retreat Centre City of Dawson Creek, British Columbia C. Easton, Sustainability Centre for International Governance Innovation Touching the Earth Working Group, Shambhala The Islands Trust Fairware Sierra Club of Canada Bishop of Trent-Durham Area & Suffragan Communicopia Sierra Club of British Columbia Bishop, Diocese of Toronto Companies and Industry Associations The Green Mama Sierra Club Canada – Atlantic Chapter United Church of Canada Forest Products Association of Canada Rain City Strategies Inc. Nova Scotia Environmental Network The Green Awakening Network AIR MILES For Social Change Chambar Restaurant Georgia Strait Alliance Ahavat Olam Synagogue BluEarth Renewables Biro Creative Sustainable Prosperity Pax Gaia Educational & Retreat Initiatives Electric Mobility Canada Anderson Greenplan One Earth Initiative Society Adam va-Adamah Environmental Society Canadian Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association Agentic Communications Environment Northeast Trinity College Canadian Geothermal Energy Association Gobi Carbon Management Solutions The Ivey Foundation Evangelical Lutheran Church in Canada Clean Energy British Columbia Outlook Land Design The Borealis Foundation The Interfaith Coalition for Offsetters Quantum Lighting County Sustainability Group Climate Justice, Halifax Greengate Power The Good Planet Company goBEYOND Campus Climate Network First Nations Engineering and LoCo Conservation Voters of British Columbia Technical Services Greengate Power Corporation Friends of Wild Salmon British Columbia Bioenergy Network King Pacific Lodge In Good Company Day4 Energy Whistler Center for Sustainability Academics Aeolis Wind We developed Junxion Strategy Inc. . INSET photo MARINA DODIS Andrew Weaver, University of Victoria, Scotian WindFields A New Energy Vision School of Earth and Ocean Sciences Canadian Bioenergy Finance for Canada in mid- Nancy Oweiller, Simon Fraser University, maliketh Woodland Bio Fuels Chrysalix / 2011. Since then, School of Public Policy

EnerWorks Cleantech Group com more than 150 civil- . Mark Jaccard, Simon Fraser University, Seaforth Energy Investeco society organizations, School of Resource and Alterra Renewal2 companies, industry Environmental Management Big Green Island Transportation Strategic Sustainable Investments associations, academics, tockphoto S i John Robinson, University of British Columbia, Integrated Power Systems Rudy North and local governments Sustainability Initiative MD Energy Solutions have lent it their support. Enfinity Non-Government Organizations George Hoberg, University of British Columbia, Taken together, these Exro Technologies Inc. World Wildlife Fund Canada Department of Forest Resources Management endorsers represent the Lang Motors Canadian Association of Retired Persons Erica Frank, University of British Columbia, interests of more than 1.2 Quantum Wind Canadian Association of Faculty of Medicine, School of Population million Canadians. The MaRS Discovery District Physicians for Environment and Public Health list is still growing. If you Westcoast NRG Climate Action Network Canada James Tansey, University of British Columbia, would like to join their Endurance Wind Power Cascadia Green Building Council ISIS, at the Sauder School of Business ranks and help champion Borealis Geopower Environmental Defence David Keith, University of Calgary, a prosperous low-carbon Climate Smart Eco Justice Department of Chemical and future, please reach out. Kerr Wood Leidal Consulting The Pembina Institute Petroleum Engineering Thank you! West Coast Environment Law Stonebreaker Designs Merran Smith, B.C. Sustainable Energy Association EC3 Initiative Director, Energy Initiative HB Lanarc Atlantic Canada Sustainable Energy Coalition Tides Canada Roger Bayley Inc. Ecology Action Centre March 2012 Saul Good Gift Co. ForestEthics SEA Sustainability Now Consulting University Neighbourhoods Association DOCUMENT DESIGN & PRODUCTION: ANNABELLUZ.COM. cover photo ©

2 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 3 Executive Leading economies are racing toward a bold meeting international commitments with executive Summary new vision of a future in which, by about respect to carbon, renewable energy, and the summary The world presently 2050, hydrocarbons have been supplanted phasing out of fossil-fuel subsidies. by clean and plentiful alternatives. This Any credible plan to transform Canada’s stands on the new era holds the promise of unprecedented economy must be rooted in objective prosperity, abundance, and geopolitical information informed by the best science, stability. Companies will be building value research, and economic modeling. We brink of a new- not on what they extract from the earth and recognize, however, that people approach process, but on how creatively they innovate the energy conversation from different a range of energy systems, technologies, and perspectives and assumptions, often based energy revolution services, in ways that improve environmental on competing information and analysis. quality and human quality of life. In this future, To this end, we propose using normative cities will have transformed themselves for scenario analysis to inform the development as significant to livability and efficiency, while nations will have and implementation of a national energy stopped going to war to secure the energy strategy. The technique enables participants they need. to assess different options and alternatives this young century This vision is not an idealistic dream nor in a collaborative manner, and can help an abstract debate, but an entirely practical provide decision makers with more objective as the discovery of scenario that is already unfolding. The process information. Scenario planning identifies of getting from here to there—we are calling it various frames and respects the differences the new-energy transition—is underway and between them, rather than pushing them to petroleum was to rife with opportunities. Indeed, it represents one side. We also propose some initial broad an unprecedented opportunity for Canada to design parameters for a process to develop a create wealth, build GDP, bolster the nation’s national energy strategy. the last. international credibility, and improve quality In March, we shared this vision and proposed of life. This country has a leading role to play in approach to a national energy strategy this transition—it has strong research capacity, with well over 100 leaders from multiple This new era a national character able to support deep sectors, from coast to coast to coast. We have change, abundant renewable electricity and incorporated much of their feedback into this holds the biomass resources, and, critically, the petroleum document, including a strong endorsement promise of reserves to finance the shift. that deep greenhouse-gas reductions must be This document imagines a Canada that included in any proposed new energy policy unprecedented has fully embraced the opportunities of a framework for Canada. prosperity, new-energy future. Like other discussion papers presently circulating the country, abundance, it endorses the idea of a national energy and strategy to guide the transition, and recognizes

. the contributions that Canada’s oil and gas geopolitical industry make to the economy. Unlike others, stability. this document explicitly links prosperity with maliketh / deep greenhouse-gas reductions. It also com . recommends Canada embrace the global new-energy transition away from hydrocarbons and toward an energy services model based tockphoto

S on renewable sources. This document also i proposes essential ingredients of a national energy strategy, including a price on carbon, sectoral and regional diversity, and indicators to monitor progress toward our goals. The authors and supporters of this document

cover & inset photo © seek to maximize economic prosperity while

4 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction 8 1.0 Purpose of this Document 9

2 Our Challenge 10 2.1 A Call for Action 12 2.1.1 Demand-Side Opportunities: Efficiency and Conservation 13 2.1.2 Supply-Side Opportunities: Renewables and Energy Services 14 2.1.3 The Five Drivers of Change 15 A New-Energy Vision for Canada in 2050 17 2.2 The Risks of Business as Usual 22 2.3 Benefits of a New-Energy Economy 24

3 A Call for Leadership 26 3.1 A National Energy Strategy 28 3.1.1 Guiding Principles 29 3.1.2 Essential Ingredients 30 3.1.3 Examples of Legal and Policy Tools 32 3.2 A Successful Energy-Strategy Design Process 34 3.2.1 Designed for Success 35 3.3 What Distinguishes Our Approach 36

4 Next Steps 38 4.1 How to Get Involved 40 4.2 About Tides Canada 41

Endnotes 42

6 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 7 intro First came the arms race. Then, the space We also have the hydrocarbons necessary to For much of the past year we have been intro race. Now, the nations of the world are in support us through this shift, tremendous working to assess the Canadian energy the throes of a different competition—the efficiency potential, technologies needed to landscape, with the goal of identifying 1.0 new-energy race—and the stakes are no provide energy services with much less input potential components and policies of a 1.1 dare to less dramatic. The winners will effectively lead energy, myriad sources of clean energy, and new-energy vision. We have drafted and revised purpose dream their economies into an era of unprecedented the research capacity to create the innovations the enclosed vision with the input of more than of this prosperity, security, and abundance—with that will ultimately become some of our leading 100 leaders from business, academia, non- big strong employment, strengthened ecosystems, export products. Further, we have a favorable government, local government, and aboriginal document lowered public-health costs, and improved national character to embrace transformation; organizations organizations, from coast to coast quality of life, among other benefits. we are one of the few jurisdictions in the world to coast. The result is an inspiring snapshot of a The United States, China, Great Britain, with a demonstrated ability to find common future Canada that has largely moved on from and many other nations are working today ground on complex challenges. Come crunch fossil fuels. We hope the document will serve as to rapidly transition off hydrocarbons and time, Canadians have a proven ability pull a catalyst for conversations between Canadians We must reorganize their cities and societies to together and get the job done. and their leaders about the best path forward provide energy services in ways that are However, while Canada has an enviable to this future. identify our environmentally and socially benign. These opportunity to thrive in this new energy era, To this end, we have also identified a few strengths, countries are making big investments, training we have some catching up to do. We must of the key elements of the pathway needed to the brightest, hiring the best, incubating new activate our considerable potential to achieve realize the vision. As a first step, we propose dare to dream technologies, and moving rapidly into a future this opportunity. The world is moving quickly, a collaborative engagement process that big, then roll that will look very different than the present. and we risk being left behind. We can no longer would develop a national energy vision, All are pursuing an immense opportunity. The afford to stand on the sidelines. framework, strategy, or accord. We do not up our sleeves International Energy Agency is calling for global In January, President Obama instructed his underestimate the complexity of this task, but and get renewable-energy investments of $430 billion nation’s scientists and engineers to focus on we do know that Canadians will not embrace by 2020 and $1.2 trillion by 2030. the most difficult clean energy problems, and such an agreement or set of agreements started. Where is Canada situated in this global assured them his government would fund without first engaging in deep and meaningful race? With outstanding universities, a proud what he called “the Apollo projects of our age.” conversations on the issues, opportunities, and history of innovation, and a wealth of natural A new U.S. Department of Energy program tradeoffs. Such a process requires extensive Come resources, we have assets that position us called SunShot is working to bring the price consultation—not only among thought leaders well as leaders, and a stable financial system of solar photovoltaics down to $1 per watt— and elites—but among all Canadians, including crunch time, to manage the transition. Ernst & Young cited competitive with natural gas—within six years. aboriginal people. We are committed to such Canadians this latter quality last year, when the firm Meanwhile, Shanghai recently minted the an approach, and will be willing contributors to have a proven ranked Canada 9th out of 27 economies for world’s first wind-energy billionaires. In 2009, the hard work that lies ahead. renewable-energy investment attractiveness. Chinese investments in new energy topped ability to pull $34.6 billion, almost double those of the together and United States. For its part, Canada has invested little get the job in new energy. Others are looking to wind, done. solar, enhanced geothermal and more, but we haven’t yet meaningfully embraced these energy solutions of the future. Before we can join this vanguard and occupy a position of leadership on the world energy stage, we must fully embrace the possibilities of a post- petroleum era. We must identify our strengths, dare to dream big, then roll up our sleeves and get started. lave photo james G

8 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 9 2 As leading economies work to Canada is doing little to join this OUR reduce their reliance on imported race and take advantage of the CHALLENGE petroleum, Canada’s deepening many opportunities presented commitment to hydrocarbons by the new-energy transition. could leave our economy Instead, our economic strategy vulnerable and exposed in the appears to be rooted in an coming decades. Spurred by a assumption of ever-increasing range of factors (see “The Five global demand for our petroleum Drivers of Change,” page 13) products. In this respect, we our nation’s two largest export are concerned that we may be markets—the United States and sacrificing Canada’s long term China—are competing to develop stability for short term gain. When energy services and solutions everyone else has moved ahead based on clean and abundant in the new-energy transition, sources that will never run out. we may well find ourselves scrambling to assemble the necessary talent, incubators, and research facilities to compete on the world stage and uphold our reputation as responsible global citizens. If we settle for an approach, strategy, or suite of policies that does not drive deep change with OUR CHALLENGE the appropriate scope, scale, and We may find speed—we will leave our nation ourselves vulnerable to forces beyond our scrambling control, and ultimately endanger to assemble Canada’s economic future. the necessary talent, nnovations incubators,

ignol I and research facilities. photo courtesy L

10 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 11 our In Canada, energy resource development Canadians are some of the highest per- our challenge is presently a strong economic driver. capita energy users in the world. In a recent challenge Hydrocarbon export revenues contribute OECD survey of 31 economies, using total to GDP and help fund public services such primary energy supply per capita—which 2.1 as healthcare and education. But profound accounts for climate and distance factors— 2.1.1 a call change is coming, and we must be ready for it. Canada ranks as the third least-efficient DEMAND -SIDE We must prepare for a day when we fund these country, slightly less efficient than the United FOR action critical public services with alternative States.3 Cold countries such as Sweden and OPPORTUNITIES: revenue sources. Finland use a fraction of the energy that EFFICIENCY AND Canadians already sense this to be the case. Canada does.4 While discouraging on its CONSERVATION A recent Decima Research poll produced for surface, the statistic points to the tremendous Natural Resources Canada found that a majority opportunities to be found on the demand side of citizens believe the energy sector is one of of the spectrum. Conservation opportunities the most important parts of Canada’s economy, are largely driven by behavioral and social and that the federal government should lead factors, while efficiency wins are largely an the way in finding alternatives to oil.2 outcome of how we design and manage our “There is not an expectation that Canada appliances, cars, homes, neighborhoods, should transition overnight, but rather and entire cities. start the process of moving toward more Opportunities in the efficiency sector environmentally friendly (but still reasonably include technical solutions such as efficient cost-effective and reliable) sources in the building-envelope materials and software medium term, and then further up the solutions that continually audit buildings for environmental continuum in a longer energy anomalies. Others exist in professional term future,” the report’s summary states. services such as planning, architecture, and “[Canadians] believe that this may not happen design, and the skilled trades needed to without some form of leadership, with retrofit, redesign and rebuild our homes and objectives and time frames in place for this communities to make them more complete, The transition transitional process, and ideally, investments compact, and livable. If we drastically reduce made in facilitating this transition.” our overall need for energy through design Indeed, the transition will take time. improvements, compact, transit-oriented

will take time . Reinventing our approach to something so core communities, and innovations in building you

to our lives and economy will likely prove one 4 materials, we build-in resilience to future and will likely of the most difficult tasks we have ever tackled energy price increases. as a nation—similar in ambition to building When it comes to building-envelope deepblue the transcontinental railway. But like that / design, Canadians have a reputation as com prove one of the project, this one must be undertaken if we are . pioneers. In 1977, Canadian ingenuity built to remain strong as a nation and competitive in the Saskatchewan Conservation House—a tomorrow’s marketplace of resources and ideas. prototype home that required only a bare tockphoto

most difficult The longer we wait, the more it will cost us. S minimum amount of energy for heating and i cooling. Eventually, the design informed the development, in Austria, of the Passivhaus

tasks we have . photo © performance standard. We can lead in this ever tackled as innovation again. a nation. screenshot courtesy pulse energy

12 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 13 our Economists One of the more subtle, but critical, The vision offered in this paper presents our challenge characteristics of the new energy era is that exciting new opportunities for innovation, challenge often speak it requires a philosophical shift from thinking global cooperation, and trade. Each about of energy not as a product, but as an enabler year, investors pour some $120 billion into 2.1.2 of services. renewable energy5 representing a total market 2.1.3 “demand for 6 supply-side Consider transportation. Economists often value of more than $1 trillion. A recent HSBC the five oil.” But the speak about “demand for oil.” But the truth assessment of stimulus packages notes that opportunities: drivers of truth is, there is, there is no demand for oil. Instead, there global governments invested $430 billion in renewables and is an appetite for the energy service of safe, climate-change related infrastructure projects change energy services is no demand affordable, and reliable mobility, or whatever in recent years.7 (See Table 1 for a country-by- country comparison.) But while these benefits for oil. other service oil consumption currently When the Experts “With over fifteen types of “There is practically no chance entice us to join this new race to the future, provides. Despite the headlines, China doesn’t Tell Us It Can’t Be Done foreign cars already on sale communications space satellites there are also drivers in the form of larger shifts, have a growing thirst for petroleum; it has Many with a big stake in the here, the Japanese auto will be used to provide better trends, and pressures that we can no longer an increasing need for the energy service status quo may call A New industry isn’t likely to carve telephone, telegraph, television, afford to ignore.8 We have identified five of of transportation, and is presently making Energy Vision for Canada out a big share of the market or radio service inside the these drivers: unparalleled new energy investments to unrealistic. A number for itself.” —Business Week, United States.” address it. It is increasingly plausible that 1. Increasing demand for energy of current reports and August 2, 1968. —T.A.M. Craven, U.S. China’s solution to meeting the demand for services as world population grows, frameworks authored by these Federal Communications personal mobility will not require imported oil. while petroleum and other non- interests typically characterize “There is no reason anyone Commissioner, in 1961. There are numerous ways to meet the renewable energy sources become the coming transition as would want a computer in their demands for energy services from renewable “gradual,” and position home.” “Television won’t last, sources. The nations that invest today to find increasingly challenging, risky, and costly to find, extract, and transport; aggressive timeframes as —Ken Olson, president, because people will soon get new ways to fulfill these demands tomorrow via plainly impractical. It is chairman and founder of tired of staring at a plywood clean, abundant, and non-polluting sources will 2. The growing global interest in energy valuable to remind ourselves Digital Equipment Corp. box every night.” dominate the global new-energy economy. independence and security, including just how wrong experts that (DEC), maker of mainframe —Darryl Zanuck, the desire to become less reliant on are the most invested in a computers, arguing against movie producer, foreign sources of energy; given paradigm can the personal computer 20th Century Fox, 1946. actually be. in 1977. 3. The pressure to reduce the risks and impacts of fossil fuel extraction, distribution, and consumption, TABLE 1: Green Stimulus Investment particularly with respect to greenhouse Jurisdiction 2009 Investment gases and climate disruption; China $221 billion 4. The imperative to maintain Canadian United States $112 billion competitiveness in the coming decades South Korea $31 billion as other major economies increasingly European Union $23 billion shift to non-hydrocarbon energy sources; and Germany $14 billion Japan $12 billion 5. The increasing demand from the France $7 billion world’s most vulnerable populations to Canada $3 billion address energy poverty and inequity, . while simultaneously minimizing the Australia $2 billion risk of climate-change impacts on United Kingdom $2 billion those same peoples. Source: HSBC

Whether it suits Canada’s present business interests or not, these drivers are inexorably pushing us to an energy future that will be markedly different from the one we

photo courtesy bernie stelzer have today.

14 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 15 To follow, we outline several of the key components of a proposed A new energy vision for Canada in 2050. The picture we begin to paint here sounds ambitious— energy and it is. Some may scoff and dismiss it outright. And yet almost everything vision we describe already exists somewhere in the world, in one form or another. Our challenge will for be to select the best of these examples and models, and

adapt them to our . riedger

unique circumstances D an canada and needs. /D com What might the new-energy . tockphoto S transition look like on the ground? i photo ©

16 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 17 CONNECTed, NEW NEW RENEWABLE, TRANSPORT RELIABLE HOMES Efficient Modes of Transportation A business trip between Toronto and Quebec City could take just under two-and-a-half hours, from office to office, aboard a comfortable, reliable, and Canadian-built high-speed train. We expect virtually all passenger cars would be powered by electricity generated from renewable sources, while buses might be powered by hydrogen fuel

. cells or other alternative low carbon sources of energy. Clean, efficient, New Models of Home and Neighborhood and reliable public transportation, such as streetcars, could connect By 2050, the average Canadian home could become a net producer of neighborhoods with schools, shops, and services. renewable energy. Once retrofitted for performance and connected As a trading nation, we could also realize significant opportunities in to a sophisticated and reliable grid, homes could be providing energy freight. We might move far more of our shipments via efficient rail and for comfort, illumination, entertainment, and other needs. They could marine modes, while trucks might be powered with liquid renewable also provide their owners with a measure of security against energy biofuels. In urban areas, fleets of electric delivery vehicles might help price increases, because the renewable “fuel” to heat, cool and power move commercial goods to market. Aviation will likely remain one of the

such a home would be free. In our vision, Canadian homes would be ; courtesy urban advantage last sectors to transition off fossil fuels.

at once beautiful, accessible to a wide range of ages and lifestyles, and com . straightforward to operate and maintain. Leadership in Renewables and Energy Services terra

Canada’s cities and towns could become integrated energy systems x In the new energy economy of 2050, we envision that Canada will ne that enjoy remarkable efficiencies by considering together the needs . overwhelmingly derive its energy from clean and renewable sources— and opportunities of services such as water and resource recovery with

, www wind, solar, water, biomass, and geothermal resources—instead of those of buildings and transportation. Unobtrusive and non-polluting

. fossil fuels. Our industrial sector will remain vibrant while significantly

district heat and power plants could provide resilience and a sense omes different from that of 2011. When Canadians extract resources from

of community ownership over energy. In the neighborhoods of 2050, nuno / their land and water base, they might do so with the smallest possible we envision all the pieces of urban infrastructure working together, reen H com . impacts and maximum possible value. Canadians could be key dynamically and seamlessly sharing resources and information for players in the closed loop of recovery and re-use of materials such as terra G

maximum efficiency. (See “Inside Tomorrow’s Integrated City,” page 19) x e aluminum, steel, and asphalt. The nation’s commercial infrastructure

tockphoto might itself be part of the integrated energy system, and produce its S i

; © own heat, electricity, and mobility. We expect petroleum companies will, by 2050, have transformed into 55; courtesy55; N predominantly renewable energy and energy-services companies. They

rout will no longer be selling energy commodities, but will instead deliver a /T wide range of energy services to Canadians. com IN THE cities OF 2050 . small footprint, tockphoto

WE ENVISION ALL S i : courtesy zenn motor company THE PIECES WORKING : © big impact NEW photos from top TOGETHER photos from top LEADERSHIP 18 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 19 canadians could be global leaders in energy services Inside Tomorrow’s Integrated City Changing Attitudes Starts The new energy transition can be realized when a given NEW with the Citizen will unfold first in Canada’s community considers all of its By the middle of this century, we expect cities. That’s because major energy and electricity needs Canadians will have completely transformed population centers bring together as a single system, their relationship with energy. In our vision, people together in dense, managed by an intelligent they would no longer assume that energy livable communities that network. PROSPERITY is free and ubiquitous, nor take the services can support sustainable Enter the “integrated Economic Prosperity it provides for granted. Instead, they would transportation, micro community energy In 2050, Canada could be enjoying a vibrant, diverse economy and prioritize conservation and efficiency above electricity grids, district energy system”—a way of an international reputation as a developer of energy production and all other considerations when making a our sense of systems, and other innovations planning and administering conservation technologies, innovative transportation products, and decision in the home or marketplace. When to deliver low-carbon neighborhoods to consider other value-added innovations. Our economy would produce a much Canadians do require power and heat for energy services. all the energy needs and higher rate of GDP per unit of energy consumed, drastically improving buildings, transportation, communication, self, revisited Canadian local governments opportunities of electricity, our energy productivity. Rather than bulk exporters of hydrocarbons, entertainment, and so on, we envision they are already turning to a range heating and cooling, and Canadians could be global leaders in the design, engineering, and would be generating it from renewable sources. of bylaws, regulations, and perhaps even mobility, with manufacturing of sophisticated energy services. This prosperity could They might also be producing this heat and financial instruments to do other traditional municipal be the direct outcome of a joint industry-government innovation fund power closer to where they use it, and use it so, and are saving residents services such as water and that might set aside a portion of oil and gas revenues. Such a fund sparingly—not because they would somehow NEW money while improving wastewater. Though the could establish leading-edge research facilities and support job training be compelled to sacrifice their lifestyles, but health and quality of life. barriers to this approach programs across the country. because they would simply need less energy to But work now underway are not trivial, we believe conduct the business of daily life. They would through Quality Urban Energy it will not only position quite literally be doing more, with far less. Systems of Tomorrow (QUEST) our population centers for . identity Similar to this country’s success in largely and the University of British prosperity, but also offer eliminating illiteracy, by 2050 Canadians could Changing National Identity Columbia—among other myriad opportunities for become very knowledgeable about the close As a country that built its wealth and institutions—suggests that Canadian private sector connections between our energy system, power on the back of its substantial natural truly deep emissions cuts innovation and export. economy, and ecosystems. We imagine they resources, Canadians have long seen might cultivate a strong sense of stewardship themselves as hewers of wood and drawers

and pride of ownership over their ; coutesy bernie stelzer of water. But our leadership in sectors such energy services. as telecommunications and transportation

. point the way to a different kind of national identity—one based less on extraction / mtrommer done _ and more on the potential of adding value com . and delivering a range of energy services sharply NEW / innovations to domestic and export markets. While we will still be exporting raw materials com . tockphoto S i for decades to come, we could also be offering : © the world an increasingly sophisticated and diversified portfolio of energy innovations. tockphoto S

attitudes i : ©

energy + economy + ecosystems photo photos from top

20 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 21 our As the world’s large economies jockey for Several recent assessments suggest that While some argue that our greenhouse-gas our challenge position in the race to a new-energy future, potential exists for a very different global emissions are relatively low compared to those challenge Canada is languishing near the back of the energy system by the middle of this century.11 of other countries, the fact is, every nation pack. By one account, this nation has in recent One recent study, conducted by Stanford must do its fair share. Our nation’s contribution 2.2 years missed out on approximately 66,000 jobs University and the University of California, to climate disruption more than doubled 2.2 THE RISKS because the federal government has failed concludes that the world can meet all of its between 1990 and 2008—increasing by 121 THE RISKS to match the United States in clean-energy new-energy needs with wind, water, and solar percent. One of the largest areas of growth OF BUSINESS investments.9 by 2030, and can replace all pre-existing energy is in the fossil-fuel sector, including Alberta’s OF BUSINESS AS USUAL But while Canada is overlooking sources with these renewable sources by 2050.12 oil-sands projects. According to Environment AS USUAL employment opportunities today, these We are concerned that, if Canada continues Canada data, emissions from these operations losses are minor compared to the risk of to place petroleum at the center of its energy- have tripled since 1990. If all oil sands projects serious economic disruption in the coming planning future, that a rapid global shift that are currently seeking approval or have decades. A number of presently circulating away from hydrocarbons could ultimately been announced by companies proceed, Canadian energy-policy frameworks appear jeapoardize our long term economic stability, production will more than quadruple today’s to assume an ever-increasing domestic and public services, and quality of life. Further, any levels.16 Without widespread and aggressive international demand for our raw carbon based economy that grows too dependent on any deployment of carbon-capture and storage energy commodities—particularly in rapidly one commodity or sector stands to undermine technology, which, despite significant federal developing and urbanizing nations of the other sectors. Canada has already lost subsidies, remains in its infancy, emissions will Pacific Rim.10 manufacturing jobs as a consequence of our follow on a similar scale. However, the recent dramatic surge in low- currency’s close link to the price of oil.13 As a northern nation, Canada is already China, for carbon infrastructure investments in these Beyond these economic vulnerabilities, witnessing the impacts of climate change in the example, nations—particularly in the transportation there are numerous security, stability, and Arctic. Our northern residents are particularly recently sector—point to an increasing push to sharply reputational risks associated with Canada’s vulnerable, especially indigenous peoples who reduce dependence on imported oil. China, current path of increasing fossil-fuel reliance. have done little to contribute to the problem committed for example, recently committed to place one Though Canada generates much of its but who are now observing massive changes to place million electric cars on the road per year. By electricity through hydropower, for the most in weather, ice formation and movement, game 2020, that nation’s high-speed rail network part this nation meets its energy needs through migration, and more. These residents are also one million is expected to connect all provincial capitals fossil fuels, and helps other economies do the grappling with the opportunities and risks electric cars and cities with populations over a half-million, same. About 80 percent of our greenhouse- inherent in increased marine traffic through Communities Lead the Way on the road significantly offsetting domestic aviation and gas emissions are a direct consequence of the an ice-free northwest passage, including the A number of local governments around the world have shown that, with the right mix of policies the petroleum it requires. hydrocarbons we burn to make electricity, possibility of increased petroleum exploration. and the support of residents, it is possible to grow economies while reducing greenhouse gas per year. While China and other markets will, in heat our buildings, power our transportation, As detailed in Section 3.1.2 of this document, emissions. Here are just three of many examples from around the world. the short term, increase their demand for and extract, upgrade, and refine petroleum.14 Canada has made a range of international Since the early 1990s, In the late 1990s, the town of In the span of a decade, oil, real risk exists that these economies Canada is the world’s 9th largest overall carbon commitments to reduce its own emissions and Güssing, Austria—a town of Övertorneå, Sweden, grappled Samsø, Denmark, transformed will eventually leapfrog over 20th-century emitter, 8th most polluting on a per-capita limit average surface temperature warming 3,800 near the border with with high unemployment itself from a coal- and energy sources, and take advantage of the basis, and 10th with respect to total to 2º above the pre-industrial era. To date, our Hungary—has reduced its and had lost 20 per cent of petroleum-dependent island inevitable mass commercialization of more cumulative emissions.15 governments have done little to meet these greenhouse-gas emissions its population during the community of 4,300 to one nimble, scaleable, and sustainable innovations commitments. Despite well-documented by 90 percent while creating preceding decades. Town entirely run on renewable brought to the global market by nations that economic benefits, this country is investing hundreds of new jobs. A planners created a shared energy. Without any direct are investing today in cleantech research and relatively little in new energy technologies, visionary local council set the vision of a local economy subsidy from the Danish development. By 2030 or so, we expect many and is not committing significant resources tone early on by committing based on renewable energy, government, the islanders

nations will have reinvented their economies . to helping Canadians shape their future and to replace fossil fuels with public transportation, organic built a CAD$70M wind, solar, uk and retrofitted their cities to become more . understand the role of energy in their lives, renewable sources of energy, agriculture, and rural land and biomass community org

complete, compact, and liveable. These cities . and the many benefits of conservation and did so largely through preservation. In 2001, the energy system. Local investors

will use dramatically less energy in general, and irri and efficiency. . combined heat-and-power community declared itself raised 80 percent of far fewer hydrocarbons in particular. plants powered by locally fossil-fuel free. The region the capital. grown biomass. The town is now the largest organic is now a regional hub of farming area in Sweden and biogasification research. more than 200 new businesses have sprung up. photo courtesy www

22 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 23 our Although profound change is daunting, Ecosystem Benefits We do not our challenge Canadians have made such dramatic We can live within our means while challenge adjustments before17 and the potential safeguarding our air, lands, and oceans, and need to seek rewards are great. The transition to a new- the services they provide. By embracing a a “balance” 2.3 energy future promises benefits for a generous new-energy future, we will eliminate our between the 2.3 BENEFITS cross-section of Canadian society. Researchers, contribution to the buildup of heavy metals, BENEFITS engineers, and financial sector professionals fossil fuels, and toxics in our ecosystems, environment OF A NEW will follow the flow of new-energy investment, while dramatically reducing and eventually OF A NEW ENERGY building up Canada’s own brain trust while eliminating our contributions to climate and the ENERGY ECONOMY attracting the best and brightest from beyond change. In this new energy vision, we do economy; we ECONOMY our borders. The transition also presents not need to seek a “balance” between the strengthen new possibilities for partnerships with First environment and the economy; we strengthen Nations, Inuit, Métis, and other aboriginal both at the same time. both at the groups. Meanwhile, the transition will enable same time. the training, retraining, and advancement of Personal Benefits many thousands of Canada’s trades workers. We will retrofit and densify our communities Our success will leverage Canada’s to lessen our dependence on motor vehicles innovative spirit, collaborative values, and our and encourage walkability and other active- global diversity in culture and experience. It transportation modes, triggering multiple will also build upon our northern climate—our physical health and personal wellness benefits. agricultural exports may become critical to help A considerable body of research details feed a warming world—and our vast reserves the present public health costs of airborne of renewable biomass. We expect myriad other particulates and smog on our communities. benefits will flow from this transition, including: In a new energy vision of steadily decreasing fossil fuel combustion, the incidence of such Socio-Economic Benefits respiratory-related illnesses—the result of The drive to redesign, retrofit, and rebuild gasoline- and diesel-based transportation—

Canada’s cities and towns will create new . will be dramatically reduced. This will offer jobs in design and planning, construction myriad health benefits to Canadians and a trades, building-material manufacturing and corresponding reduced burden on public reclamation. The shift to decentralized and health care. Canadians would see a dramatically community-based energy systems will also improved quality of life, and have more money The transition generate local employment to manage and to spend on things other than energy. also presents maintain those systems. Local stewardship of integrated energy systems will enhance a Reputational Benefits new possibilities sense of overall community in how Canadians Good things come to those who lead. As our for partnerships work, play, learn, and care for our children investments begin to pay dividends—as we and elders. We will eliminate energy poverty, courtesy. this page dockside green offer the global community Canadian-made with First particularly in aboriginal communities, many and designed new energy innovations—this Nations, Inuit, of which presently rely on polluting and country will strengthen its reputation on the expensive diesel generators. No longer will a world stage as a leader and innovator. As ryersonclark Métis, and million Canadians have to choose each month / international standing and respect flourish, com other aboriginal whether to pay for their rent or their utilities. . multiple benefits and opportunities will flow Through a national energy strategy, Canada will our way, including further investments and groups. identify its competencies and niche strengths potential new-energy trade alliances.

in energy-services innovation. We will become tockphoto S i global traders of energy solutions, rather than raw materials. photo opposite ©

24 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 25 3 In the first part of a call for leadership this section, we call for a national energy strategy that includes a set of guiding principles and necessary ingredients, PRINCIPLES such as hard caps on emissions. We also describe some of the tools and approaches to build and maintain trust TRANSPARENCY between participants as this strategy is developed— strategies that can help the parties navigate potentially contentious issues, FAIRNESS such as nuclear power. We’ll also highlight the need . for transparency and fairness, adequate funding support, and necessary regulatory reform. photo courtesy the pembina institute a call for leadership

26 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 27 a call for The fact that Canada does not have a As the costs of maintaining this standoff We propose that a a call for leadership national energy strategy is surprising given between Ottawa and the provinces in a world leadership that the country is so dependent on natural now consumed by energy issues has become national energy strategy must: resources and that energy commodities are more apparent, the political incentive to find 3.1 by far the most valuable of those resources. our new ways to push past the impasse has grown. 1. Provide accessible, fair, 3.1.1 a national nation is well endowed with abundant As a result, over the past 18 months we have GUIDING sources of energy, including oil and gas, coal, seen a flurry of new activity by many groups, and efficient energy services energy PRINCIPleS hydroelectricity, nuclear, wind, solar, hydrogen, particularly industry and government, to to Canada’s present and future strategy biofuels and geothermal. Canada is ranked as address this situation. the world’s fifth-largest energy producer, and is Although these initiatives represent populations with minimal risk to home to the world’s second-largest oil constructive contributions to a national future generations; reserves and the world’s third-largest natural consensus on Canada’s energy future, many gas reserves. overlook issues such as a market price on 2. Create new jobs while ensuring As stated earlier in this paper, Canada is carbon, which will internalize the now-hidden currently not well positioned in the transition costs of fossil fuels with respect to their the country remains competitive to a new energy future. The ongoing leadership impact on ecosystems, human health, and in the global market for new- vacuum on energy issues in Canada is a the atmosphere. Many of the dialogues and product of a longstanding power struggle discussion papers also neglect the required energy technologies, systems, between Ottawa and the provinces that began deep reductions in greenhouse gases and and services; in 1980 when the federal government of the a timeline for the new-energy transition, day attempted to impose a National Energy including binding emissions reduction targets. 3. Reduce the risk of climate Policy that would have restricted the province Given the sheer complexity of the task at of Alberta’s ability to make decisions on hand and the central role that oil, gas, and coal change by lowering carbon energy resource development within its own presently play in the Canadian economy, a shift emissions 80 percent below 1990 boundaries. Many elections and governments of this magnitude will not happen overnight. In levels by the year 2050; later, key jurisdictional issues on energy policy fact, it probably will not happen within the next in Canada remain unresolved. This complexity decade. While transformation needs to start 4. Protect and restore Canada’s TABLE 2: currently hinders our ability to make effective immediately, it won’t happen at all without a Jurisdictional Comparison - Installed Capacity and timely change. broad consensus that such profound change is air, land and water resources Jurisdiction Examples of Investments in needed, and a commitment to an by setting hard caps on Renewable Energy Solutions Opportunities in Asia aggressive strategy. Germany Wind power installed: 26,000 MW (2010) According to the World Energy 2035. India is responsible for There is already widespread agreement cumulative ecosystem and PV installed: 5,400 MW (2008) Congress, global demand for the second-largest increase in that a centralized, top-down solution is atmospheric impacts; and Spain Wind power installed: 19,000 MW (2010) all forms of energy is expected global demand, accounting not the answer. Instead, a national energy PV installed: 3,300 MW (2008) to grow 36 percent between for 18 percent of the expected strategy, framework, agreement, or accord 5. Create a new reputation for 2008 and 2035. The lion’s share increase, and doubling its must reflect the varied interests of Canada’s Texas Wind power installed: 9700 MW (2010) of this growth is expected energy use over the regional jurisdictions and sectors, and provide Canada in the international China Wind power installed: 35,000 MW (2010) to occur in China, which— same period. the incentives, guidance, coordination, and marketplace as an energy U.S. Wind provided 40% of all new capacity in 2008 and 2009. owing to a combination Canada’s present response consistency necessary to achieve our energy overall Total installed wind power capacity: 36,000 MW (2010) of rising population, rapid to this trend appears to be vision and compete in the global leader, innovator, and Solar power capacity: 1,687 MW (2009) industrialization, and largely limited to ensuring our new-energy economy. solutions provider. Ethanol production: 34 billion liters (2008) urbanization—in 2009 oil and gas producers have EU overall Wind power installed: 75,000 MW (2010) overtook the United States ready access to these markets. Canada Wind power installed: 3,250 MW (2010) as the world’s top A new energy vision for the PV installed: 94 MW (2009) energy consumer. nation would develop a more Ethanol production: 0.9 billion liters (2008) The International Energy diversified response, and Agency expects that China will identify export opportunities contribute 36 percent of the for Canadian innovation in increase in global energy use, energy services, renewables, its demand rising an estimated and related technologies 75 percent between 2008 and and products.

28 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 29 a call for A number of organizations and coalitions We must set these targets based on best Regional & Sectoral Diversity Our present a call for leadership are presently circulating draft national available research and evidence, and stretch Canadians take pride in their diversity, and leadership energy frameworks and hosting a variety them to stimulate innovation. We must draw our national energy strategy must respect system of dialogues on energy issues in Canada.18 from the performance in other jurisdictions and leverage this core value. Any strategy regards to ensure we remain competitive while taking 3.1.2 Many of these documents and discussions must support a range of approaches to realize ecosystem 3.1.2 essential capture much of the language of a new- into account our own unique situation. Targets the vision. Provinces and municipalities will essential energy economy, with calls for leadership and should be set for five years, 10 years, and the draw upon a portfolio of laws and policies, impacts as ingredients innovation to ensure competitiveness. They year 2050. The 2050 target defines the ultimate economic instruments and tools that best allow ingredients also recommend extensive new investments vision and sets direction, while the five and them to translate the national energy strategy “externalities” in energy services and renewables, smart grids 10-year targets represent short-term milestones into effective action. Different regions and that are not and smart meters, as well as energy literacy to which today’s decision-makers can be held jurisdictions have distinct needs and potential factored into programs and demand-side conservation accountable. contributions, and any national strategy must measures. We agree that these are all important As a starting point*, any strategy must recognize and build upon—rather than detract the cost of components of Canada’s energy future. reinforce our existing domestic and from—these various strengths. Though the business. However, many of these frameworks and international commitments, including: vision will be national, implementation will dialogues overlook a number of core tenets • An absolute reduction of Canada’s inevitably unfold at the local and regional level. that are essential to any credible discussion of a greenhouse-gas emissions to at least 17 future energy vision, as set out below. percent below the 2005 level by 2020, Canada’s A Market Price on Carbon commitment under the Copenhagen Accord;22 and Full-Cost Accounting Clear Targets and Mechanisms • Limiting global average surface The policies that will make up a national to Measure Progress temperature increase to 2˚ Celsius above the energy strategy, agreement, or accord must Any national energy strategy must establish pre-industrial level, as committed to under the account for the full costs of a given fuel or clear, measurable, and binding targets.19 Copenhagen Accord;22 energy generation scheme across its life cycle, Application of such targets is appropriate, at • Generating 90 percent of Canada’s from extraction, through manufacturing, minimum, for gross reductions of greenhouse- electricity from zero-emitting sources; use, and eventual recovery of materials. Our gas emissions, carbon intensity of electricity, • Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, as present system regards ecosystem impacts as fuel efficiency for vehicles, energy consumption committed under the G20 process.23 “externalities” that are not factored into the standards for appliances, and performance- • Commitments under the United Nations cost of doing business. Chief among these

based standards for buildings. A strategy Convention on Biological Diversity relating to . are the emissions associated with fossil-fuel would establish such targets for each sector the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem combustion. Any national energy strategy and sub-sector of our energy system, including services. must fully account for these impacts, primarily transportation, the built environment, through a market price on carbon. Such a electricity production, energy utilization, and *These commitments, including the obligation to limit policy will bring the price of fossil fuels more in so on. It must also measure, track, and report global average surface temperature rise to 2º above the pre- line with their cleaner counterparts, and drive industrial period, are political in nature. Targets should be impacts to water, air, land, and the atmosphere. market innovation towards cleaner driven by science, not politics. We expect these commitments Further, a strategy must define and track will be strengthened to reflect the growing scientific certainty energy services. socio-economic indicators, to ensure that, for with respect to the impacts of climate change. example, the new strategy is creating more

jobs than it renders obsolete, and that we are courtesy. this page city of vancouver providing aboriginal communities with equal access to new-energy solutions. photo opposite courtesy mitsubishi motors

30 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 31 a call for A recent report concluded that nations with Research and Development Programs TABLE 3: Examples of Potential Policy Instruments For Canada a call for strong policies aimed at reducing global Canada must invest in research, development, leadership Sector Policy Jurisdictional Level Examples leadership warming pollution and encouraging the use and commercialization to identify and exploit Renewable electricity Feed-in-tariff Municipal / Provincial Green Energy Act, of renewable energy are establishing stronger our unique strengths in the global energy Ontario; Germany 3.1.3 competitive positions in the clean energy solutions market. This means establishing 3.1.3 24 Vehicle efficiency Corporate average eXAMPLES OF economy. We can identify examples of the and funding research centers and graduate eXAMPLES OF policy instruments and tools that might form programs. President Obama recently proposed fleet efficiency LEGAL AND some of the ingredients of a national energy developing and funding such programs in his Feebates National European Union (5 France feebate LEGAL AND POLICY TOOLS strategy (see Table 3). Many of these policies country by eliminating the subsidies given to L/100km by 2012) program. POLICY TOOLS and approaches have been used effectively in fossil-fuel companies. Urban planning Liveable density other jurisdictions. Our challenge will be to Transit system Municipal British Columbia, select from the best of these examples, adapt Government Procurement Ontario, Europe them to suit Canada’s unique circumstances Government purchasing power has Building codes Minimum standards National / Provincial / LEED Gold for and needs, and ensure that they function historically helped drive adoption of emerging Municipal commercial; 50+% effectively in our market. technologies. Wherever possible, our improvement from governments should purchase the technologies current norm for resi- Taxation and Market Incentives of the energy future we are striving for, and dential. California and We need robust economic instruments to divest from less efficient and dirtier systems of Florida. eliminate subsidies for polluting systems, the past. Electrical appliances Top Runner Standard National Japan ensure polluters pay the full cost for spills, leaks, and atmospheric releases, and fully value and Education and Outreach Programs Renewable heat Feed in tariff and/or National / Provincial / Germany, UK, Israel reward actions that support the achievement of An effective national energy strategy will regulatory Municipal a new-energy vision. Full-cost accounting will educate Canadians about energy use, Electric Vehicles Standards and National US, China drive innovation and investment towards the production and the significance of the new- Investments cleaner energy systems. As much as possible, energy vision. Such energy literacy programs Freight Fleet efficiency National the fiscal measures should be performance- would include formal education (K-12 and standard based rather than technology-prescriptive. post-secondary), as well as a digital program to Pollution pricing Carbon levy National BC, Norway, EU connect with and host conversations with Our Limits on regional Air, land, water – National and Provin- all Canadians. Standards and Regulations environmental caps on cumulative cial/Regional governments Performance-based energy standards and impacts impacts should regulations for buildings, vehicles, appliances, Environmental Air, land, water National / Provincial and electronics, may help meet energy purchase the reporting and releases and efficiency goals. Standards and regulations monitoring systems consumption technologies also offer a means to address large industrial polluters. To drive product innovation, we of the energy might consider the “top runner” approach future we are employed in Japan. Under this strategy, the best performing model on the market sets the striving for. next required standard within a given number of years. Whatever approach is determined, clear and enforceable standards will provide both certainty for industry and the means to ensure we meet our goals.

32 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 33 a call for With general consensus that the time has Energy is not only a complex inter- Transparency and Accessibility a call for leadership come to create a national energy strategy, jurisdictional challenge for policy makers. All steps in the process must be transparent leadership the first step will be identifying a suitable It also touches the life and pocketbook of so that Canadians can understand what is process. We believe that all stakeholders— every Canadian. For this reason, the ultimate happening, how their interests are being 3.2 including those representing the interests measure of success for any process to develop considered, and how they will participate in 3.2.1 A Successful of civil society—must now come together a vision or strategy for Canada’s energy the key decisions that affect them. The process designed to create both a national vision of Canada’s future will be whether or not Canadians see design must embrace multiple communications energy- energy future and a coordinated strategy to themselves reflected within it. The longevity channels, and records of the proceedings must for success strategy get us there. This—and only this—will ensure of any agreement is a direct result of the be made accessible in a timely manner and design our nation continues to prosper and compete degree of ownership perceived among those across multiple platforms. process through the global transformation that is the agreement will most affect. It will not already underway. be enough for federal or provincial decision Research Excellence and Rigour A vision and strategy for Canada’s energy makers to sign off on a given approach; The success of a collaborative process will future must not only drive near-term policy everyone with an interest in the outcome depend in part on access to appropriate reforms to prepare us for the transition, but must feel that their interests have been technical support and the very best science also endure across multiple governments, fairly addressed. and research. Moreover, such support needs jurisdictions, and generations. The task will As stated earlier, the opportunities and to overcome the stifling problem of “dueling be far from straightforward. But we can say risks of producing and consuming energy science and economics,” and instead provide with confidence that the success of any such differ widely across Canada. Different regions a single, independent source of information initiative will hinge directly on how carefully have different priorities and concerns, and and analysis to inform discussions and the underlying process is designed, supported, are endowed with diverse energy assets and decision-making. and implemented. barriers. Any effective collaborative process must be capable of wrestling with these Iterative, Adaptive, Enduring differences in a fair and equitable fashion. Given the sheer scale and complexity of energy A well-designed energy planning production and use, a collaborative process The process process would not only involve a critical and will need to be both iterative—allowing for will doubtless representative mass of Canadians, but would multiple cycles of problem definition, analysis fail if we only also make a particular effort to involve often- and experimentation— and adaptive, so that marginalized groups, such as those already it is well matched to changing contexts and engage elites Energy coping with the effects of climate change, circumstances and well-equipped to revisit and energy’s and those most vulnerable to energy price issues and areas as new information emerges. touches shocks. The process will doubtless fail if we only Such a process will also need to be longer term, perceived the life and engage elites and energy’s perceived “winners,” able to outlast any single government, and “winners.” because its result will not be supported by a capable of learning from its own successes pocketbook sufficiently wide range of constituents. and failures. of every At a minimum, the design of an effective We are fortunate that Canada has a well- collaborative process must embrace the deserved reputation for designing and Canadian following principles of engagement: managing complex, collaborative multi-party . processes of this nature. We will doubtless Inclusivity draw heavily on our international diplomacy The process adopted for the development skills, and the experience of those who have osenberg R of a vision and strategy must engage all managed and led complex negotiations over relevant sectors, regions, and communities land use, resource management, and other nthony

/A in the energy system, via a diverse range of public policy issues. channels, including digital and face-to-face com . conversations. Such a process not only needs to engage many groups, interests and values, it also needs to meet Canadians “where they are” tockphoto S i with respect to both physical location and their existing knowledge, understanding,

34 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 35 a call for To summarize, our proposed approach to II. Objective Research and Data a call for leadership a national energy vision agrees with many An energy plan must be based on the very best leadership others in that it includes a commitment to information and data informed by appropriate stronger energy literacy, conservation, and methodologies, tools and approaches. 3.3 efficiency, as well as increased support for These include traditional macroeconomic 3.3 what renewable energy. However, we are suggesting modeling, back-casting, and scenario planning. what that the following three ingredients need to Backcasting is a research methodology that distinguishes be embedded in any national energy policy, involves stipulating an end-point—such as distinguishes our framework, strategy, or accord. an aggressive greenhouse-gas reduction our approach target—and working backwards to determine approach I. Deep Greenhouse-Gas Reductions how best to reach it. Scenario planning and Any national energy strategy must include systems thinking help organizations reconcile a credible plan to dramatically reduce a wide array of possible outcomes for a given greenhouse-gas emissions in a way that can strategy. The approach reveals how different be tracked, measured, and reported upon, perspectives and frames can inform our while growing the nation’s economy. These views of the future, and recognizes how Citizens will reductions should be 80 percent below 1990 unpredictable societal and economic forces can not accept a levels by the year 2050, the target established impact outcomes in unexpected ways. vision or plan by the global scientific community to head off the worst impacts of climate change. III. Inclusive and Non-partisan Framework created by any The strategy must recommend clear policies for Collaboration single sector. to drive this goal, including a market price An overhaul of our energy system within on carbon. In our conversations across the this century will demand the engagement country, across many sectors, the majority of Canadians from all sectors and regions, of participants advised us that science- including aboriginal peoples. Citizens will not based greenhouse-gas reductions should be accept a vision or plan created by any single embedded in any national energy strategy, sector. Further, because the process will exceed

along with other critical goals and principles. . the life of any single government, it will need to be strictly non-partisan. It will also need to nikada / be characterized by regular, open reporting com

. and information sharing. Finally, the process must be adequately supported, particularly with respect to the anticipated research,

strategy ye E must include

36 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 37 4 We hope to bring the ideas next presented in this paper— steps specifically the need, scope, get and process design parameters involved of a national energy strategy— forward into discussions of Canada’s energy future that are already underway. This coming summer, leaders from the nation’s energy resources sector will meet with provincial and federal governments and we expect the agenda will include a discussion of a national energy strategy. We recommend that all parties interested in advancing this conversation now make a focused effort to identify and design an appropriate collaborative multi-party process. . eyecrave / com . tockphoto S i

38 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 39 next We think this country Tides Canada delivers “uncommon solutions next steps for the common good.” With offices in steps deserves a brighter energy Toronto and Vancouver, we are one of future and we believe others Canada’s most respected charities. For more than a decade, we have worked to support, 4.1 share our vision. Over the 4.3 HOW TO GET convene, and directly fund hundreds of about coming months we will be charitable organizations and initiatives, INVOLVED tides working to build support for from neighborhood-scale programs to national organizations. canada A New Energy Vision for Canada, We have been involved in energy and and put in place the funding climate work for some time. Some years back, we supported 3E (“Economy, Energy, and needed to advance the process Environment”), an early multi-sector dialogue. forward. If your company, We also sponsored British Columbia’s first cross- sector dialogue on climate change. In 2010, organization, or local government Tides began dedicating staff and resources to would like to endorse this energy solutions work through a new Energy Initiative. vision and document, please We have a strong track record building get in touch. successful outcomes from difficult challenges. Chief among these is the landmark Great Bear For more information contact: Rainforest Agreement. Signed in 2006, the Merran Smith agreement now protects some two million Director, Energy Initiative hectares of coastal British Columbia, while Tides Canada Foundation providing new economic opportunities for 400-163 West Hastings Street coastal aboriginal communities. Tides Canada Vancouver, BC V6B 1H5 helped raise $120 million from public and We have a [email protected] private sources in support of this agreement. 604-424-9981 Largely as a result of this work, and our efforts to support other multi-party discussions strong track and implementation initiatives—including support for the Canadian Boreal Forest Agreement—Tides Canada enjoys respect record building from multiple levels of government, aboriginal organizations, resource firms and other private-sector companies, academics, and successful nongovernment organizations. outcomes from difficult challenges.

40 | A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca A New Energy Vision for Canada newenergycanada.ca | 41 endnotes 1. “Renewable energy country attractiveness indices - Issue 25,” Ernst & Young, released July 17. In the 1990s, the Province of Alberta set a production target for 2020 of one million barrels endnotes 21 2010. Available at http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/Renewable_energy_country_ per day in the oil sands. At the time, this was considered visionary, and a stretch target. With attractiveness_indices_Issue_25/$FILE/Renewable_Energy_Issue_25.pdf favorable policy and global economic circumstances, that production target was achieved in 2. “Feds Should Clean Up Energy Sector, Poll Says,” Mike De Souza, Postmedia News, December 2004, sixteen years ahead of schedule. 27, 2010. Downloaded from http://www.canada.com/technology/Feds+should+clean+energy+sect 18. See “Clean Growth 2.0: How Canada Can Be A Leader in Energy and Environmental or+poll+says/4030225/story.html Innovation,” Task Force on Energy, The Enviroments, And Climate Change, Canadian Council of 3. OECD Factbook 2010: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics, ISBN 92-64-08356-1 - © Chief Executives, November 2010, available online at http://www.ceocouncil.ca. Also ibid., Energy OECD 2010. Summary available at http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org. Policy Institute of Canada. 19. 4. Ibid. In 2008, Canada consumed 8.07 tonnes of oil equivalent per capita, while Sweden used It is common practice to combine fiscal policy instruments with standard-setting and 5.4, Denmark used 3.5, while Australia used 6.11 in the same year. regulatory mechanisms. This is especially true in the area of energy and environment, where it is widely recognized that the pricing of carbon—although critical to drive consumer behavior 5. REN21. 2009. Renewables Global Status Report: 2009 Update (Paris: REN21 Secretariat). change—is best complemented by performance standards placed on energy-consuming devices. Copyright © 2009 Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH. 20. Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 6. Innovas, Low-carbon and Environmental Goods and Services: an industry analysis. (Cheshire: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its fifteenth session, held in Copenhagen from 7 to Innovas Solutions Ltd., 2009). 19 December 2009 - Addendum, Part Two: Action taken by the Conference of the Parties at its 7. “A Climate for Recovery: The Color of Stimulus Goes Green,” HSBC Global Research, February fifteenth session (Bonn, Germany: UNFCCC, 2010), Decision 2/CP.15. 25, 2009. Available at http://www.hsbc.com/1/PA_1_1_S5/content/assets/sustainability/090522_ Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2009/cop15/eng/11a01.pdf#page=4. green_recovery.pdf. 21. Ibid. Analysis suggests that Canada’s fair share of the emissions reductions required to meet 8. Raynolds, M. “Setting the Stage for a Sustainable Energy Strategy: Canada’s Necessary this goal would require net national emissions targets of 25% below the 1990 level by 2020, and Opportunity”, Trottier Energy Futures Project, 2010. 80% below the 1990 level by 2050. See Matthew Bramley, The Case for Deep Reductions: Canada’s Role in Preventing Dangerous Climate Change (Vancouver, BC, and Drayton Valley, AB: The 9. “Falling Behind: Canada’s Lost Clean Energy Jobs,” BlueGreen Canada: a partnership of Pembina Institute and David Suzuki Foundation, 2005). Environmental Defense and United Steelworkers, May 2010. Accesed January 24, 2011. Available online at http://www.climate.pembina.org/pub/536. 10. See “A Strategy for Canada’s Global Energy Leadership,” Energy Policy Institute of Canada, 22. Government of Canada, Fifth National Communication on Climate Change: Actions to Meet January 2011. Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Ottawa, ON: 11. See “The Energy Report: 100% Renewable Energy by 2050,” WWF International, Ecofys, and Government of Canada, 2010), 41. OMA, February 2011, from http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/ Available online at http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/can_nc5.pdf. energy_solutions/renewable_energy/sustainable_energy_report. Also see “Energy [Re]volution: 23. G20, Leaders’ Statement: The Pittsburgh Summit, September 24-25, 2009. Available online at A Sustainable Energy Outlook for Canada,” prepared by Greenpeace and the European Renewable http://www.pittsburghsummit.gov/mediacenter/129639.htm. Energy Council, in conjunction with specialists from the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre, and Ecofys, available from http://www.greenpeace.org/canada/en/ 24. “Who’s Winning the Clean Energy Race? Growth, Competition and Opportunity in the World’s recent/Energy-Revolution-A-Sustainable-Energy-Outlook-for-Canada/. Largest Economies,” The Pew Charitable Trusts, March 2010. Available from http://www.pewtrusts. org/uploadedFiles/wwwpewtrustsorg/Reports/Global_warming/G-20%20Report.pdf 12. Jacobson, M.Z., Delucchi, M.A., Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy (2010), doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.11.04 13. Beine, Michel, Bostand, Charles S., and Coulombe, Serge, Does the Canadian Economy Suffer from Dutch Disease? Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, November 2009. 14. “National Inventory Report 1990-2008: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada,” Environment Canada, 2010. Available online at http://www.ec.gc.ca/. 15. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, World Resources Institute, 2010. Available at http://cait.wri.org/. 16. “Existing and Proposed Canadian Commercial Oil Sands Projects,” Strategy West Inc., September 2010.

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