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Malaysia Daybreak | 8 September 2014

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Malaysia Daybreak | 8 September 2014 REGIONAL DAILY December 26, 2012 MALAYSIA Malaysia Daybreak | 8 September 2014 Key Metrics ▌What’s on the Table… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— FBMKLCI Index Ahmad Zaki Resources Bhd - A laggard and deep value play 1,900 AZRB fits squarely into the category of a smaller-cap pure contractor with 1,850 decent order book growth and new recurring income assets, and that is hugely undervalued relative to its RNAV. Longer-term recovery prospects are 1,800 underappreciated, in our view. AZRB is worth double its market value. AZRB 1,750 is the concessionaire of the RM1.6bn EKVE whose DCF value is arguably almost equivalent to AZRB's market cap. Today, investors would be paying for its 1,700 construction and oil & gas bunkering businesses, but getting its other assets for Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 free. The stock trades at a massive 75% discount to its RNAV. A 50% RNAV ——————————————————————————— discount implies 103% upside. FBMKLCI 1868.46 -0.75pts -0.04% Felda Global Ventures - Explains rationale for APL Sep Futures Oct Futures 1858 - (-0.03%) 1861 - (1.00%) At FGV's recent analysts’ briefing, management provided more details of its ——————————————————————————— proposed acquisitions of APL and biodiesel. We concur with the management's Gainers Losers Unchanged 507 304 333 view that APL's estates have good output growth prospects due to their young ——————————————————————————— age profile. However, we still feel the estates are pricey when compared to other Turnover estates transactions in Sarawak, and expect the acquisition to be earnings 2710.06m shares / RM2255.279m 3m avg volume traded 2452.37m shares dilutive in the near term. FGV indicated that APL will only turn profitable in 3m avg value traded RM2128.01m FY17. As such, we maintain our Reduce call and target price of RM3.69, based ——————————————————————————— Regional Indices on a 20% discount to its SOP. FBMKLCI FSSTI JCI SET HSI Plantations - Malaysia scraps CPO export tax for two months 1,868 3,342 5,217 1,584 25,240 ———————————————————————————————— Market Indices We view Malaysia's decision to exempt CPO from export taxes in Sep and Oct as Close % chg YTD % chg positive for CPO exports in the near term as the CPO export tax will be much FBMKLCI 1,868.46 (0.0) 0.1 lower compared to Indonesia's 9% for Sep 14. However, this is negative for FBM100 12,635.67 0.2 0.4 FBMSC 18,793.07 1.0 19.7 Malaysian refiners as it will erode their competitiveness against Indonesia's FBMMES 6,939.71 0.8 22.3 refiners in September. This measure will help keep palm oil stocks manageable Dow Jones 17,137.36 0.4 3.4 NASDAQ 4,582.90 0.5 9.7 but may not be able to lift the current bearish sentiment engulfing the CPO FSSTI 3,341.73 (0.1) 5.5 market due to concerns over rising edible oil supply in the coming months. FTSE-100 6,855.10 (0.3) 1.6 SENSEX 27,026.70 (0.2) 27.7 Furthermore, there is a possibility that Indonesia will cut its CPO tax rate to Hang Seng 25,240.15 (0.2) 8.3 zero in Oct if CPO prices stay below US$750 per tonne. We retain our Neutral JCI 5,217.34 0.2 22.1 KOSPI 2,049.41 (0.3) 1.9 sector rating and preference for First Resources. Nikkei 225 15,668.68 (0.0) (3.8) PCOMP 7,263.58 0.8 23.3 Economic Update - Jul exports continue to slow SET 1,584.32 0.3 22.0 Shanghai 2,326.43 0.8 9.9 Export growth moderated to 0.6% yoy in Jul (+7.9% in Jun), which was lower Taiwan 9,407.94 (0.2) 9.2 ———————————————————————————————— than our estimate (+5.0%) and market expectations (+6.4%). Nonetheless, this Top Actives still marked the 13th consecutive month of expansion. The slowdown was due Close % chg Vol. (m) PDZ HOLDINGS 0.340 19.3 204.6 to last year's high base and a decline in E&E exports (-1.0% yoy vs. +5.5% in SUMATEC 0.465 3.3 157.3 Jun), though partly offset by expansion of non-E&E exports (+1.5% vs. +9.1% in GLOBALTEC 0.105 0.0 134.7 EFFICIENT 0.325 10.2 107.8 Jun). The slowdown could also be explained by the shorter working festive TEK SENG 0.750 8.7 68.3 month. On a positive note, Jul recorded the smallest mom decline in exports in MARCO HOLDINGS 0.210 2.4 58.4 COMPUGATES 0.065 18.2 57.5 the past three months (-0.2% mom vs. -5.5% in Jun) and imports of DAGANG 0.365 5.8 51.7 intermediate goods remained encouraging (+2.6% yoy vs. +2.3% in Jun), ———————————————————————————————— Economic Statistics presaging that export growth in the coming months will still be supported. Close % chg US$/Euro 1.2955 0.03 RM/US$ (Spot) 3.1825 (0.03) ▌News of the Day… —————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— RM/US$ (12-mth NDF) 3.2470 (0.42) OPR (% ) 3.25 0.00 • The price of a cigarette pack of 20s will go up by RM1 to RM13 today BLR (% , CIMB Bank) 6.85 0.00 GOLD ( US$/oz) 1,270.22 0.10 • E&O proposed 1-for-10 bonus issue and free 1-for-5 warrants WTI crude oil US spot (US$/barrel) 93.29 (1.23) • Mah Sing expects to clinch RM1.5bn sales during two-month sales campaign CPO spot price (RM/tonne) 1,980.00 0.00 ———————————————————————————————————————— • GST stimulate demand for vehicles with the reduction of prices, says MAI Terence WONG, CFA • Khazanah looking to divest its stake in Westports Holdings? T (60) 3 2261 9088 E [email protected] • US nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 in Aug (212,000 in Jul) Show Style "View Doc Map" Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT. Sources: CIMB. COMPANY REPORTS Daybreak│Malaysia September 8, 2014 Global Economic News The US Federal Reserve has consistently fallen short of its inflation and employment goals, suggesting borrowing costs are still too high and the country is still not making full use of its productive resources, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said. (WSJ) The US Federal Reserve will accelerate its search for a substitute to the Libor benchmark interest rate to stave off what would be "a horrible mess" if the current system collapses with no alternative, Fed Governor Jerome Powell said. The unsecured interbank lending market on which Libor is based "has been in a secular decline," making it difficult for banks to credibly set the benchmark lending rate that has been wired into an estimated US$150tr in dollar-based contracts worldwide, he said. (Reuters) US Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher said he has doubts that inflation has cooled, despite some recent signs of a decline, noting that some economic data has given hints of underlying inflationary pressure.He noted that his preferred measure of underlying inflation, which strips out the most volatile price movements, showed fast increases in Jul in some the index's largest, least volatile components. (Reuters) US unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in Aug (6.2% in Jul). (Bloomberg) US nonfarm payrolls increased 142,000 in Aug (212,000 in Jul). (Reuters) US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser said the economy has “moved much closer” to the Fed’s goals and keeping rates near zero until achieving them is a “risky strategy.” (Bloomberg) Given the "significant" slack in US labor markets, the Federal Reserve should be patient about reducing monetary policy stimulus and refrain from telling markets exactly when it may raise rates, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren said. (Reuters) Japan’s leading index rose to 106.5 in Jul (105.9 in Jun). The coincident index edged up to 109.9 in Jul (109.7 in Jun) while the lagging index dropped to 117.5 in Jul (118.3 in Jun). (RTT) A fresh round of negotiations for a three-way free trade agreement (FTA) between South Korea, China and Japan on Sep 5 ended without a clear breakthrough, although the South Korean side said the talks were productive. (Korean Herald) Taiwan's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.07% yoy in Aug to hit an 18-month high (+1.76% yoy in Jul). The wholesale price index (WPI) rose 0.12% yoy (+0.92% yoy in Jul). (Focus Taiwan, Bloomberg) Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves fell to US$423.07bn in Aug (US$423.66bn in Jul), stopping an eight-month gaining streak. (Focus Taiwan) 2 Daybreak│Malaysia September 8, 2014 Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves rose to US$111.2bn by the end of Aug (US$110.5bn in end Jul), fueled by strong oil and gas export revenue, Bank Indonesia said. (Reuters) Consumer prices in Philippines accelerated by 4.9% yoy in Aug, the same rate in Jul. On month, inflation rose 0.3% mom in Aug (+0.6% mom in Jul). Core inflation rose 3.4% yoy in Aug (+3.0% yoy in Jul). (Philippines Star) The Philippines gross international reserves ( GIR) expanded to US$80.78bn in Aug (US$80.64bn in Jul). (Philippines Star) Malaysian Economic News The 11th Malaysia Plan (2016-2020), which charts the country’s economic and social direction, will be tabled in Parliament in May next year. Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar said the government has collected data from all states except Sabah.
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