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US Equities Seven Themes for the Post-Pandemic Economy

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US Equities Seven Themes for the Post-Pandemic Economy US equities Seven themes for the post-pandemic economy Chief Investment Office GWM | 23 April 2020 4:50 pm EDT Laura Kane, CFA, CPA, Head Thematic Research Americas, [email protected]; Michelle Laliberte, CFA, Thematic Investment Associate, [email protected]; Bradley Ball, Financials Analyst Americas, [email protected]; Robert Samuels, Consumer Analyst Americas, [email protected]; Adam Scheiner, CFA, Industrial and Materials Analyst Americas, [email protected]; Kevin Dennean, CFA, Technology & Communication Services Analyst Americas, [email protected]; Jonathan Woloshin, CFA, Real Estate & Lodging Analyst Americas, [email protected]; James Dobson, CFA, MLP and Utilities Analyst Americas, [email protected]; David Lefkowitz, CFA, Sr. Equity Strategist Americas, [email protected]; Reid Gilligan, Equity Associate Analyst Americas, [email protected] • We believe that the COVID-19 pandemic will have lasting economic consequences. • We anticipate changes to consumer behavior, corporate strategy, and government policy and spending decisions. • At the same time our relationships with key trading partners will experience disruption. • In this report we provide equity investment ideas for a post pandemic world. • For more information on how COVID-19 will influence the global economy and cross-asset class strategy going forward, please see our global whitepaper, After COVID-19. • For further context around how COVID-19 has accelerated certain secular trends and longer-term investment (LTI) themes, see our report, Decade Ahead and COVID-19. In a short time, the COVID-19 outbreak has brought many changes to markets, the economy, and our daily lives. Some of these changes, like extreme financial market volatility, rapidly rising unemployment, and strict social distancing, will be temporary. Others will be long-lasting. Specifically, we believe that the experience of this pandemic will leave a lasting imprint on consumer behavior, corporate decision-making, and government policy and spending decisions. At the same time our relationships with key trading partners will experience disruption. The ripple effects from these changes will touch nearly every industry from healthcare to real estate. In the following pages, we explore these shifting currents and discuss how to position US equity portfolios for the post-pandemic world. There are seven investment themes that we see arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. 1. Virtual becomes "at-home" reality 2. Clicks over bricks 3. Keeping the change in payments 4. Pandemic preparedness is the new counter-terrorism 5. Rethinking business practices – localizing and digitizing 6. Sharing is not always caring 7. Depending on dividends This report has been prepared by UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS). Analyst certification and required disclosures begin on page 13. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. US equities 1. Virtual becomes "at-home" reality Across the country, social distancing has become the norm in the col- lective fight against the spread of COVID-19. As a result, most of our daily activities – from work to leisure – have quickly transitioned from the physical to the virtual world. While we expect quarantining mea- sures to eventually be lifted, we believe that some habits formed dur- ing this time spent indoors may endure. Specifically, we expect to see less personal travel (for now), more in-home, digital leisure experi- ences, and ongoing shifts toward telecommuting. In previous thematic reports, we had discussed the growing share of consumer dollars being spent on experiences vs. physical goods. This trend has been temporarily disrupted as restaurants, theme parks, and stadiums have closed their doors, and travel has ground to a halt amid health safety concerns. While we do believe that air travel will return to normal at some point, it could take as much as one to two years (or more) for air travel to get back to 2019 level (with domestic travel recovering faster than international), assuming no further outbreak later this year. This would mean potentially little near-term demand for aircraft outside of replacement orders, which would be negative for aircraft manufacturers. The airlines would also see a drag from reduced leisure travel, as well as the slow return of business travel, which is the highest margin segment. We note that some airline stock prices already reflect this highly uncertain outlook. Without travel plans to look forward to, consumers are finding ways to enjoy their leisure time at home in the virtual realm. Fortunate- ly, internet connectivity is ubiquitous in the US, with more than 112mn wired broadband connections and 490mn wireless connec- tions (greater than the US population of 330mn). This has led to wide range of entertainment options while sheltering-in-place. For exam- ple, over-the-top (OTT) video consumption, which was a secular force pre-COVID-19, has only gained momentum due to the pandemic. Paid services such as Netflix have likely gained a significant number of new subscribers, but we believe free-to-stream such as Pluto TV, Crackle, Tubi TV, Vudu, and Xumo have also gained awareness and subscribers. The impact on traditional media is likely negative on bal- ance, but with some potential benefits. Further reduced viewership of traditional video will pressure the highly profitable advertising rev- enues, but at the same time a dearth of quality content against a vast (more than 200 globally with more launching every month) creates the opportunity for licensing back catalogs of content. Another area that has seen an uptick is video gaming. The video game industry is experiencing a surge in new users and significantly increased engagement. We can see this by looking at games down- loaded, both on consoles and smartphones, data traffic from the connectivity-focused companies, and through hours of video games watched on platforms such as Amazon's Twitch and Alphabet's Youtube. While the current level of user level and engagement will be unsustainable when kids go back to school and employees return to work, the recent uptick has more clearly shown the opportuni- ty that exists within gaming and e-sports, including on the advertis- ing side. We are seeing major brands running marketing partnerships CIO GWM 23 April 2020 2 US equities with popular games, such as Fortnite and Animal Crossing, and more companies are considering advertising on streaming platforms. The trend towards a more mainstream video game and e-sports culture was already under way but the global quarantine has sped up the pace. Longer term we would expect e-sports leagues to grow in pop- ularity, advertising strategies to shift, and the industry to consolidate. A number of large companies are coming to market with cloud game streaming platforms without major publishers behind them and could potentially see AAA publishers be acquired to bolster the offering. Looking forward, we expect the trend toward at-home, virtual experi- ences, from streaming to gaming, to continue until a vaccine is discov- ered. As a result, we could see consumers investing more discretionary dollars in making their "nests" as comfortable as possible, leading to home furnishing purchases and do-it-yourself home improvement projects. This trend could benefit home improvement retailers. Next, shifting to the professional world, many employers have required or encouraged workers to telecommute until virus concerns abate. In light of this, we expect a longer-reaching impact of COV- ID-19 will be companies provisioning remote workforces, both as a disaster recovery strategy and as part of an ongoing effort to bet- ter balance real-estate costs and geographically diversify headcount. Traditional disaster recovery strategies typically require the provision- ing of redundant systems in secondary locations, tying up capital while often requiring significant employee travel. Looking forward, we expect companies, particularly larger enterprises, will harness the power of cloud computing to enable increased remote working and work-from-home capabilities. This will require investment in data cen- ters, and in our view, will benefit providers of key semiconductors, communications equipment, software, and security used in cloud computing environments. The implications of remote working trends for the office real estate market are mixed. It is likely that a percentage of firms will allow an increased level of remote working, and we could see sales/client- focused businesses reducing their office footprints. That being said, the potential reversal of the office densification trend (i.e. reducing square footage per employee) could offset some of this weakening demand for office space, as employers seek to provide greater physi- cal distance between employees for health purposes. We could also see increased demand for office space coming from the life-sciences and research segment in response to additional funding and demand for pharmaceutical and biotechnology research going forward. Finally, if the trend toward increased remote working arrangements persists, we could see the need for additional antenna and tower capacity. Additional antennas on an existing tower carry extreme- ly high incremental margins for the tower companies (which were already benefiting from 5G trends). CIO GWM 23 April 2020 3 US equities 2. Clicks over bricks The current pandemic will have long-lasting effects on the consumer and will likely accelerate the growth in online sales. Online shop- ping, which currently represents roughly 12% of total retail sales, has soared during the economic shutdown and we believe this trend will endure. Grocery shopping online will likely be a major beneficiary of "quarantine-life." Pre-virus, roughly 3% of groceries were purchased online. Post-virus, some experts think this percentage could rise to as much as 30%, as consumers become accustomed to this modern-day convenience.
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