Tr a N S P O Rtation Research at the University of California

Tr a n s p o r tation Research at the University of California

F A L L 2 0 0 0

N U M B E R 1 7 C O N T E N T S

A C C E S S NO. 1 7 F A L L 2 0 0 0

2 Brooklyn’s Boulevards

ELIZABETH MACDONALD

9 A Question of Timing

ROSELLA PICADO

1 4 Taking Turns: Rx for Congestion CARLOS DAGANZO

2 0 What Can a Trucker Do?

AMELIA REGAN

2 6 The Road Ahead: Managing Pa v e m e n t s

SAMER MADANAT

4 0 TH E AC C E SS AL M A N AC: The Parking of Nations

DONALD SHOUP AND SETH STA R K

3 0 Papers in Pr i n t

3 7 Order Fo r m

3 8 Back Issues

The University of California Tr a n s p o rtation Center, founded in 1988, facilitates re s e a rch, education, and public service for the entire UC system. Activities have centered on the Berkeley, Davis, Irvine, Los Angeles, Riverside, and Santa Barbara campuses.

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Front Cover: San Francisco–Oakland Bay Bridge Toll Plaza C O M M E N T

Autonomous Decongestants

E S P I T E universal complaints and many Relocation and attractive public transit help to make pr oposed remedies, it seems there’ s still t r a ffic congestion self-ameliorating, even if not self- no cure for traffic congestion. As a mirror co r recting. When commuters remove themselves from Don a city’s economic vitality and the pace the traffic stream, they help reduce traffic jams to levels of its social life, congestion is a built-in attribute of that remaining motorists may judge acceptable. the pros p e r ous metropolis. Heavy traffic volumes are a O r, instead of relocating, they may voice their positive index of a city’s range of opportunities and the di s p l e a s u r e politically, demanding that public offi c i a l s richness of its residents’ lives. The city with but little be more res o u r ceful in seeking therapies. In res p o n s e , tr a f fic is a city that may be stagnating. go v e r nments might build more roads, price the roa d s , Although congestion is an intrinsic attribute of suc- push for effective transit, develop automated highways, cessful cities, it is not also a lethal attribute. In common or initiate other remedies that seem likely to make a with other large and complex open systems that operate d i ff e rence. upon themselves to lighten their problems, cities rea c t So long as there ’s both freedom to relocate and spontaneously to relieve their worst ailments, prev e n t - fr eedom to revolt, congestion levels are likely to rem a i n ing them from becoming truly dreadful. Like other tolerable for the many who live or work in central area s , vexing city problems, congestion is self-limiting. as well as for those who leave. So long as land markets Although lots of traffic is a good sign, traffic con- and political systems are responsive to citizens’ pref e r - gestion entails substantial costs—costs of living and ences, the adaptive behavior of individuals and govern- costs of doing business. When persons or ﬁrms judge ments makes it unlikely that the dreaded “gridlock” costs to be excessive, they have at least three options. will ever occur in America—outside news-media exag- As Albert O. Hirschman once put it, their choices are geration, that is. “exit, voice, and loyalty.” They can leave; they can So, where congestion is severe over an extended complain; or they can stay and bear it. period and citizens neither rebel nor leave—where they They may choose to move into outlying suburbs or continue to endure the costs of overcr owding—in effe c t distant small towns where there ’s less traffic; but, of they are individually and collectively saying they pref e r course, moving implies costs and lost opportunities as to live with the congestion rather than change jobs or well. So individuals must compare the disadvantages of houses or take other drastic measures. That’s not to staying versus leaving. If the costs of enduring conges- suggest that traffic congestion is not annoying or costly tion seem too large, moving may be better than staying. or exasperating. It’s obviously all these. But it’s also a Continuing expansion in the exurbs over a great many no r mal condition of urban life—a price people willingly years is evidence that a great many people have found pay for the many advantages of urban life. these costs too high. To be sure, many other motiva- We’ll know congestion has gotten really bad when tions also induce people to relocate. It’s also true that popular revolts compel political leaders to try taming it travel distances are greater in the outlying suburbs and by building more roads and introducing congestion exurbs and so are miles traveled. But commuting times pricing. Until then, things can’t be as bad as they seem. ar e stable, and may even be shrinking. Melvin M. We b b e r B r o okl y n’s Boulevards

BY ELIZABETH MACDONALD

R O O K LY N is not known for its great streets.

And yet, like Paris, it enjoys a remarkable Blegacy of several mid-19th century boulevards. At the same time that Baron Haussmann was building

boulevards in Paris, Frederick Law Olmsted and Calvert

Vaux, landscape architects for the Brooklyn Park

Commission, designed and supervised construction of

two major landscaped thoroughfares in Brooklyn.

Elizabeth Macdonald holds the Ph.D. degree in City and Regional Planning from the University of California, Berkeley ( e m a c d o n a @ c i r c q u e . g e o g . u t o r o n t o . c a )

A C C E S S 2 They called them parkways, and they didn’t picture them lined with six-story empire style m a n h a t t a n buildings as Haussmann’s boulevards came to be. Olmsted and Vaux envisioned single-family houses on large lots. But the right-of-way cross section they designed for Eastern Parkway and Ocean Parkway was similar to that of the larger boulevards Haussmann was building in the western part of Paris, and almost identical to the extension of the Avenue des Champs e a s t e r n Elysées west of the Etoile. These were wide and impressive streets with multiple ro a d w a y s p a r k w a y and many rows of closely planted tre e s . c a n a r s i e f l a t b u s h

A Grand Design p a r k v i l l e o c e a n Like Haussmann, Olmsted and Vaux conceived their parkways as part of a grand design. p a r k w a y E a s t e rn and Ocean were the ﬁrst pieces of an extensive system of parkways that would weave t h roughout all of western Long Island, connecting parks and other public open spaces and giving stru c t u re to the anticipated suburban expansion of Brooklyn. The rest of the parkway system was never realized as Olmsted and Vaux imagined it, but Eastern Parkway and Ocean coney island Parkway were built in their entire t y, over eight miles in combined length. They function today as major traffic arteries in Brooklyn, and yet they are also friendly to pedestrians and do not impose barriers that divide the city. While carrying exceptionally l a rge volumes of through traffic—between 50,000 and 70,000 vehicles per day—they also s e rve as local traffic carriers, neighborhood parks, and re c reational greenways. In addition, they are valued residential streets, despite the traffic. Such multiple functions are unusual for heavily traveled streets in American cities. Indeed, accepted street-design practice today would not allow either of these parkways to be built because their physical form is too complex according to modern arterial street standard s . That form provides space for diff e rent activities to occur in close proximity but within separate zones. Both streets have essentially the same physical conﬁguration. They are 210 feet wide and have three roadways: a wide roadway in the center (65 feet on Eastern Parkway and 70 feet on Ocean Parkway) and narrow roadways along each side (25 feet on both stre e t s ) . Two malls (35 feet wide on one and 30 feet wide on the other) separate the three ro a d w a y s , each lined with two rows of trees. There is another row of trees lining the sidewalks in fro n t of the houses. ➢

C ross section of Eastern Parkway

30' 12 .5' 25' 35' 65' 35' 25' 12 .5' 30' 210'

3 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 Ocean Parkway in the 1990s

The scale and diversity of activity along the six rows of trees is remarkable. Fast t r a ffic moves in three lanes in each direction in the center ro a d w a y, while slower local t r a ffic moves on a single one-way lane on each of the access roadways. But forget the t r a ffic for a moment and look at the people. The separating malls are much more than roadway dividers: they are the realm of pedestrians and bicyclists. Walkways run down the length of each mall, and one mall on each street also has a bicycle path. On Ocean Parkway the malls are lined with an almost u n b roken line of concrete and wood-slat benches, each over twenty feet long, facing t o w a rd the center. Eastern Parkway has newer, more widely spaced benches. On both streets, people congregate on the benches in large numbers; at any given time there are lots of people walking or bicycling—older people, families with children, young people. The trees on the malls provide a transparent fence between these slower-paced activities and the faster traffic moving in the center ro a d w a y. The reason it would be difficult to build Eastern Parkway and Ocean Parkway today is the very complexity of activities their design accommodates. Streets designed today to c a rry large volumes of through traffic are also designed to discourage other uses, the rationale being efficiency and safety. Eliminate complexity, and traffic will move faster, the planners say; remove pedestrians and there will be fewer traffic conflicts. With malls designed to encourage pedestrian use and a multiple roadway configuration that calls for complex intersections, these parkways defy conventional planning guidelines. And yet, our analysis of accident data for both parkways found no more accidents here than on comparable, normally configured streets carrying similar volumes of traffic. And, because it is given clear priority at intersections, traffic flows as easily on the center roadway as on modern arterial streets elsewhere .

A C C E S S 4 Planned for an Unforeseeable Future So, what can we learn from Eastern and Ocean Parkways? They may be anomalies, even curiosities, but they are not anachronisms. To d a y, many people—city planners, t r a ffic engineers, and lay citizens alike—question the wisdom of building streets that divide cities, and single-purpose major traffic roads designed to today’s standards tend to do just that. Likewise, many are questioning the wisdom of planning streets solely for car movement at the expense of other uses. B ro o k l y n ’s parkways prove that complex major traffic streets can function well in t o d a y ’s cities. Eastern Parkway and Ocean Parkway are working examples that manage to serve significant volumes of through traffic while also supporting diff e rent types of s t reet use. They suggest we should expand our re p e rt o i re of major street designs to include a wider range of civic purposes than simply moving traff i c . E a s t e rn and Ocean Parkways are exemplars of public works designed for fle x i b i l i t y and adaptability over the long term. During the 125 years since they were built, these s t reets have accommodated a variety of traffic types, ranging from horse-and-carriage to automobile. Olmsted and Vaux specifically designed them to serve emerging ro a d w a y uses. The physical form has proved resilient as the diff e rentiated zones have accommodated unforeseeable changes in transport technology and human activity without the need to re c o n fig u re the roadways. At various times, various groups of people with diff e rent agendas, using various means of transportation, have vied for rights to use certain spaces on the parkways in particular ways. Customs developed which eventually became codified into regulations. ➢

Ocean Parkway in 1894

5 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 Evolution of uses on Ocean Parkway On Ocean Parkway, the center roadway was originally the exclusive domain of fast horse-drawn carr i a g e s , while two-way commercial wagon traffic used one of the side roads. Equestrians filled the other, and pedestrians used the malls. Around the turn of the century, when bicycling became popular, the malls were desig- nated exclusively for bicyclists, while pedestrians used the sidewalks. The current use pattern was established in the 1930s, after automobiles came into general use. R e c e n t l y, people using rollerblades have joined bicy- 18 75 clists on the bike path. The physical form of these streets allows them to c a rry lots of traffic without turning the area into a traffic wasteland. With trees, benches, and houses facing the street rather than turning their backs to it, the parkways are places that local people want to inhabit. These attributes also encourage those living in sur- rounding neighborhoods to claim the streets as their t e rr i t o ry as well, and thus to value and care for them. 1895 A Higher Purpose The head park commissioner when the plans were p roposed, James Strannahan, enthusiastically adopted the Olmsted-Vaux plan and pressed for construction. A lot of opposition initially raised doubts about the p ro j e c t ’s fate, however. Understandably, many opposed the tax assessments attached to the pro j e c t . ( T h e re was more resistance along Ocean Parkway than Eastern, because the latter was built within the 1905 city limits while the former was built outside them. Also, Eastern Parkway lands were owned by real estate e n t re p reneurs, while Ocean Parkway’s were held by f a rmers who favored a new ro a d w a y, albeit not such a wide one.) But once the assessments were trans- f o rmed into a general tax, to be borne by all Bro o k l y n p ro p e rty owners, opposition declined. The shift of financial burden to the entire citizenry was in keeping with the spirit behind the parkways. Yes, they were 1930 intended to pave the way for suburban expansion, but their higher purpose was to serve as re c re a t i o n a l p romenades for all residents of the city. They were to be park-like spaces where gregarious, community- building activities could take place.

A C C E S S 6 Under Strannahan’s guidance, the streets were completely built within the space of just a few years, reaching out beyond the already developed areas of the city in expec- tation that expanding suburbs would eventually grow to re q u i re them. Imagine the u n d e rtaking—a right-of-way 210 feet wide, extending 21⁄2 miles on Eastern Parkway and

51⁄2 miles on Ocean Parkway. Imagine planting the six rows of trees—thousands of them spaced 25 feet apart in continuous lines through open countryside. This was surely an exceptionally farsighted civic achievement, especially considering that but little development would occur around either street for almost ﬁfty years.

The Value of a Park Initial jurisdictional arrangements fundamentally shaped the projects. When built, the streets were controlled by the parks department rather than the public works department. This arrangement lasted until well into the late 20th century, when the public works department took over roadway maintenance. The long-standing jurisdictional a rrangement meant that engineers could not have their way with these streets as easily as with other streets. However, at various times, selected people simultaneously con- t rolled both the parks department and highway construction entities—notably during the reign of Robert Moses. During these periods a bit of luck, combined with public understanding that the parkways were parks as well as trafficways, saved the stre e t s f rom reengineering. In the end, the value that local residents placed on the special qualities of these s t reets saved them from destruction. Ocean Parkway almost lost its malls in the 1970s because conditions attached to a federal paving grant re q u i red adherence to curre n t a rterial street standards. That meant adding about eighteen feet to the center ro a d w a y, t h e reby reducing each mall by nine feet and eliminating a line of hundreds of trees. The t rees had, for years, not only shaded pedestrian activities on the malls, but also acted as a buffer between pedestrians and the fast traffic in the center ro a d w a y. Residents did not want these drastic changes and were willing to forgo repaving to keep the malls. It took a great deal of political engagement, but the residents won the day: they successfully fought the reengineering initiative as well as a compromise proposal that called for building twenty-inch-high concrete curbs along the edges of the malls. Incidentally, they also managed to retain the paving grant.

Can We Have More? How might such streets get built today, given the enormity of the costs associated with wide rights-of-way and extensive tree planting? In some circumstances expendi- t u res might be even less than for streets built for similar traffic loads—for instance, limited-access urban expressways that re q u i re expensive concrete stru c t u res. Furt h e r, the rights-of-way could be narrowed without losing all the qualities that make Eastern and Ocean Parkways desirable. There are many examples of Parisian multi-way boule- v a rds that are only 120 to 150 feet wide. Several appropriate locations and circumstances for such boulevards suggest themselves, such as New Urbanism planned developments, existing urban areas where ➢

7 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 FURTHER READING obsolete infrastru c t u re needs to be replaced, and even existing suburban areas where citizens want to improve the physical quality of their environments. Or, more likely still, Allan B. Jacobs, Great Streets (Cambridge: suburbs that, like Brooklyn in 1870, anticipate further expansion and insist that it be MIT Press, 1993). decent and humane, as well as eff i c i e n t . Peter Bosselmann and Elizabeth Macdonald, Because they were never “modernized,” Eastern Parkway and Ocean Parkway pro v e “Livable Streets Revisited,” Journal of the American Planning Association, v. 65, no. 2, that seemingly antiquated designs can be as desirable for our time as for theirs. More pp. 168-180, 1999. than that, the currently rapid pace of technological development and shifting life styles should be enough to induce considerable humility among those who would plan infra- Ken Greenberg, “The Street, A Creature of Compromise,” Places, v. 11, no. 2, pp. 8-11, s t ru c t u re that will last a long time. The success of these parkways, so long after they were 1997. conceived and installed, is evidence enough, if any were needed, that public works can

Allan B. Jacobs, Elizabeth Macdonald, and be adaptable to large-scale changes. Yodan Rofé, The Boulevard Book (Cambridge: None of us can yet predict what shapes the automobile’s successors and their ro a d- MIT Press, forthcoming). ways will take or how they’ll be used. So, we face a major challenge: to design public works in adaptive forms that will be likely to accommodate future surface transport as it evolves over the long-term. Olmsted and Vaux succeeded precisely because they designed the parkways to accommodate many diverse activities, thereby creating an i n f r a s t ru c t u re that could adapt to an unpredictable future. ◆

A C C E S S 8 A Question of Timing

BY ROSELLA PICADO

O H E L P W O R K E R S avoid the peak-hour commute, employers have been adopting flextime work schedules. Some workers’ jobs already permit flexible T work hours, so a lot of employees should be commuting during off-peak hours. But, alas, the survey I’ve just completed finds it ain’t necessarily so. Given the opportunity to avoid heavy traffic, I had to ask: why does anyone still commute during the peak hours?

RUSHING INTO THE RUSH HOUR P e rhaps the question is not as outrageous as it seems. Patricia Mokhtarian and Ilan Solomon re p o rted in a recent issue of AC C E S S that people don’t mind commuting as much as conventional wisdom suggests, indeed that some rather enjoy it. To deal specific a l l y with the flextime question, I surveyed faculty and staff at the Berkeley campus of the University of California, where both flextime and normally permissive work schedules make it easy to avoid the peak. The campus is a pertinent site also because most commuting routes are highly congested, making for further incentives to travel off - p e a k . I asked a sample of people about their regular work hours, their work-scheduling d i s c retion, the purposes and timing of their nonwork activities, their freedom to choose and schedule those activities, their travel times, and related matters. Only twenty perc e n t of them are officially on flextime, yet more than two-thirds describe their schedules as fle x i b l e . In keeping with popular understanding, I found that commuters with rigid work schedules do indeed travel during peak commute times. But, to my surprise, it turns out that the reverse isn’t true. Many who are not limited to rigid work schedules also travel during peak hours. Why so? In addition to paid work, the typical person participates both in optional nonwork activities and in obligatory personal activities. Optional nonwork activities limit the choice of commute schedules about as much as do paid work and mandatory personal activities, and all three are likely to put a commuter into the peak-hour traffic stre a m . Only a q u a rt e r of commuters who have flexible work schedules successfully avoid t r a ffic congestion. Despite the option of varying their work schedules, a few of the ➢

Rosella Picado holds the Ph.D. degree in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley ([email protected])

9 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 p e ople I surveyed choose peak-hour over off-peak-hour travel because of work- related considerations, such as the need to interact with colleagues, to make telephone contacts elsewhere, or to supervise subordinates. A few workers give up the option of off-peak travel in exchange for the pre f e rential and less-expensive parking available to carpoolers. (At the time of the surv e y, only one useable freeway had high-occupancy lanes, so carpooling off e red no significant time-saving advantage for f reeway commuters). For the majority of commuters with flexible work schedules, timing of the work trip depends on the timing of no n w o r k activities. These include driving children to and from school, dropping off or picking up a spouse, in-home leisure or family time, p re f e rred sleeping schedules, and out-of-home activities such as a second job, exercise, religious meetings, and volunteer work. On average, workers who commute in the peak hour, primarily because nonwork activities re q u i re it, are spending seven more minutes per day than are off - p e a k commuters. Although seven minutes may not seem much, it re p resents between 15 and 25 percent of a worker’s one-way commute. Compared to workers without any fle x i b i l i t y, there ’s only a one-minute diff e rence, suggesting that nonwork activities compel workers with flexible schedules to travel in about as much congestion as workers with rigid schedules.

A PERSONAL CHOICE Four main factors seem to account for ﬂe x t i m e ’s modest effectiveness: one’s d e g ree of freedom in choosing nonwork activities; one’s discretion in scheduling those activities; personal pre f e rences for spending one’s time; and the timing and duration of peak traffic congestion.

Fr eedom to Choose Activities Some nonwork activities are mandatory, and their schedules are determined by people or institutions a commuter can’t control. For example, one of our subjects works as a re s e a rch assistant. Although she has almost unlimited work-scheduling fle x i b i l i t y, she travels during peak hours both in the morning and in the evening because daycare for her son is available only between certain fixed hours—as it is for school-age children. Work-scheduling fle x i b i l i t y, however, does allow our subjects to time their work schedules to suit their childre n ’s transportation needs. Among workers with rigid schedules, it is common to drop children off at school t h i rty or even sixty minutes before school starts.

Di s c r etion in Scheduling Activities Some activities may be highly discre t i o n a ry. Yet, once chosen, they must be p e rf o rmed at speciﬁc times of day. Some activities are off e red only at a part i c u l a r h o u r. For example, one of our subjects can shift her work schedule about thirty minutes, either earlier or later. A late shift would allow her to avoid heavy traffic, but p revent her from participating in her evening ﬁtness class that meets at no other time. Or, one’s schedule may depend on others.’ Carpool members, for example, must conform to the schedules of fellow carpoolers. Tennis partners have to be on the court at the same time.

A C C E S S 10 Personal Pref e re n c e s Some say they just can’t wake up early enough to avoid the morning peak. Why does Others say they leave work early to avoid walking to the parking lot in the dark. Others explain that their family members insist they be home in time for supper, and of course some must be home early enough to cook it. Obviously, each of us is anyone still beholden to others in our lives, and our schedules must conform to theirs.

Time and Duration of the Tra f fic Peak commute Characteristics of traffic flow—the interval between am and pm peaks and the duration of the peaks—interact with regular business hours to determine when individuals will choose to travel. If work hours differ from inter-peak hours, miss- during the ing one peak may still not make it possible to miss the other. Consider the example of an upper-level administrator in my sample who comes to work before the morning peak in an attempt to get work done before others arrive. But he then finds he peak hours? c a n ’t leave early enough to avoid the evening peak. He won’t stay until after the peak, either. He says that, after spending ten or twelve hours in his office, he’s re a d y to quit, even if everyone else is on the highway with the same idea in mind. It’s become clear that the longer the duration of the peaks and the shorter the interv a l between peaks, the less likely it is that people like him will be able to re s c h e d u l e their trips to off-peak hours.

For the most part, these factors are unrelated to scheduling re q u i rements in the workplace. It’s clear that policies aiming to relax constraints on work-re l a t e d schedules are not sufficient to shift commuters into off-peak travel. Tw o - t h i rds of our sample said they have some flexibility in choosing their work schedules, yet less than twenty percent of them are able and willing to reschedule work so they travel during off-peak hours. Even if some people who currently lack this discre t i o n w e re allowed work-scheduling flexibility, they would not necessarily choose off - peak commute times. In our sample, more than half these people participate in activities either before work or after, and they say they can’t easily cancel or reschedule those activities. ➢

Average time diff e rence from trips taken in the peak of the peak for workers...

...with nonflexible 3.3 minutes less s c h e d u l e s

...with flexible schedules, but constrained by 4.5 minutes less personal/family activities

...with flexible schedules 11.1 minutes less and no constraints

11 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 Only a quarter of commuters with flexible work schedules successfully avoid traffic congestion. W H AT’S TO BE DONE? Positive remedies might include employer-based childcare facilities that allow workers to match daycare hours to their work schedules. At least one large manufacturer in Silicon Valley has talked about siting a public school on its own campus so employees and their children could commute together. With extended before- and after-school activities, p a rents would then have more discretion for setting work hours, experience less personal stress caused by mismatched childre n ’s schedules, and perhaps even get to travel at off-peak hours. It would help too if firms offering consumer goods and services were to stay open longer hours. If there were more opportunities throughout the day and evening for shopping, daycare, exercise, visits to the dentist and other personal services, individuals would have broader scheduling options. In turn, traffic peaks might flatten somewhat and individuals’ sense of well-being might rise somewhat. A l re a d y, the timing of nonwork activities re flects the increasing number of women in the workforce and recent changes in workers’ lifestyles. These trends seem likely to continue. Witness, for examples, sports facilities, supermarkets, and other retail estab- lishments that open early in the morning and/or close late in the evening—or not at all! M o re and more personal business such as banking, shopping, and even medical advis- ing can now be conducted by telephone or online 24 hours a day. I n c reasingly flexible schedules of nonwork activities should re i n f o rce flexible work schedules and thus increase flexibility in individuals’ commute times. These changes may not help the majority of commuters. As some trips shift from present peak to pre s- ent nonpeak hours, the peaks will shift even as they flatten. More o v e r, a reduction in some types of peak-hour trips might be countered by increased trips for other purposes at those times as motorists fill vacated spaces. The net result might be little, if any, savings in average travel time. Nevertheless, those whose schedules are made more fle x- ible will surely be better off for it. So, although my study has found that flextime on the job has not turned out to be the magic wand many had expected, I’m nevertheless led to speculate that increased flexibility in the scheduling of both work and nonwork activities continues to hold out promises for improved quality of life for some. Schedules that are ever more elastic may yet lead to somewhat reduced traffic congestion during peak hours and, equally important, to wider ranges of opportunity in those fortunate individuals’ daily lives as well. ◆

FURTHER READING

Carlos Daganzo, “Restricting Road Use Can Beneﬁt Everyone” and “Restricting Road Use Can Beneﬁt Everyone—Part II: Time-Of-Day Restrictions That Encourage Earlier Arrivals,” Institute of Transportation Studies Research Report UCB-ITS-RR-92-6, and Working Paper UCB-ITS-WP-92-8, University of California, Berkeley, CA, December 1992.

Carlos Daganzo, “A Pareto Optimum Congestion Reduction Scheme,” Transportation Research, v. 29B, no. 2, April 1995.

Reinaldo C. Garcia, “A Pareto-Improving Strategy for the Time-Dependent Morning Commute Problem,” Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, CA, December 1999.

Carlos Daganzo and Reinaldo C. Garcia, “A Pareto-Improving Strategy for the Time-Dependent Morning Commute Problem,” Transportation Science, v. 34, no. 3, August 2000.

19 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 What Can a Trucker Do?

BY AMELIA REGAN

R U C K S play critically important roles in the US economy. Measured by its Tvalue, nearly seventy percent of freight is carried exclusively by truck while another eighteen percent spends at least part of its journey on the road. For most motorists, traffic congestion is a nuisance; for truckers, it can be crippling. If tru c k e r s a re inconvenienced, costs rise for everyone. The strength of each re g i o n ’s industrial base depends on the ability of fre i g h t - t r a n s p o rt companies to provide swift and re l i a b l e goods movement at tolerable costs. In addition, trucks caught in traffic congestion generate signiﬁcant negative externalities including pollution, lost pro d u c t i v i t y, accident costs, and stre s s . Truckers are well-informed on the workings and failings of the US transportation system, and also are major political actors, constituting a p o w e rful lobby on issues that affect their industry. Both their level of concern about the issue of congestion and their expertise on the ground give policymakers plenty of reason to seek their opinions on the subject, asking which policies t ruckers would be likely to support .

A C C E S S 20 In an eff o rt to discover how they judge various congestion-mitigation strategies For most p roposed by traffic managers, analysts, and re s e a rchers, we conducted a study that just asked them. The trucking industry is diverse, not only in terms of sizes of companies but in the parts of the freight trip they handle and how they handle it. So to understand why motorists, they prefer certain policies over others, we ﬁrst had to learn how trucking companies function. We soon found some consistent links between types of trucking operations and traffic t ruckers’ opinions. It proved useful to identify these links because it allows us to see which truckers prefer which policies. With this information, government investments n e e d n ’t favor one segment of the industry over another. congestion is We also found that the industry is changing at a rapid clip. Historically the fre i g h t i n d u s t ry has changed slowly, but with the emergence of e-commerce, new inform a t i o n technologies, and advanced traveler information systems, trucking is undergoing a a nuisance; p rofound transformation.

DIVERSITY OF OPERAT I O N S for truckers, The trucking industry is already highly diverse. It includes companies with several thousand vehicles as well as owner operators who lease, own, or control only a single vehicle. Private fleets, typically under the control of a large company, account for a larg e it can be p o rtion of the industry. Some trucking companies move full containers or tru c k l o a d s e x c l u s i v e l y, while others move smaller shipments or manage networks of consolidation crippling. and distribution facilities. At the extreme, companies like UPS and FedEx move exclusively small shipments through vast networks and hubs. Some companies provide specialized services, like moving refrigerated goods. Others manage fleets of tank trucks carrying various liquids. Others move high-value, expedited, or hazardous loads. Some, known as dray carriers or drayers, focus on short moves as part of intermodal operations—that is, operations involving ground-and-sea or road-and-rail operations. Other truckers focus on ground moves associated with air cargo operations. Companies may be engaged in local, regional, national, or international traffic. Some companies have long lead times (the time between requests for service and the time when delivery is re q u i red), while others primarily react to requests within several hours. Truckload carriers move whole containers only, while less-than-truckload (LTL) c a rriers contract shipments of any size. Private carriers are typically part of a larger c o m p a n y, such as a gro c e ry chain, while for- h i re carriers simply provide transport a t i o n or both transportation and logistical services. For- h i re carriers may be contract carr i e r s , working under contract with one or more customers, or common carriers, available to s e rve any customer. Tank and refrigerated carriers have specialized fleets and high ➢

Amelia Regan is assistant professor of Transportation Systems Engineering at the University of California, Irvine ([email protected])

21 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 operating costs. Household movers have rather long loading and unloading times re l a- tive to other carriers and typically make ﬁnal deliveries with the help of at least one driver who is familiar with the delivery area. Bulk carriers move high-volume, low-value goods.

THE CHANGING INDUSTRY C u rrent industry changes are being driven by emerging e-commerce and re l a t e d i n f o rmation technologies, including advanced traveler information services (AT I S ) aimed specifically at commercial vehicle operators. E - c o m m e rce is generating many changes in the industry. Some trucking companies a re becoming full-service providers, managing warehouses, distribution channels, and in some cases even final assembly of goods. Others are taking advantage of on-line load- matching services, making it easier for small carriers and independent owner operators to find loads on a day-to-day basis. (These load-matching services may be fee-based or f ree. Some are managed by large trucking companies or consortia of trucking companies, who find it pro fitable to contract practically all loads that come their way but then subcontract unpro fitable or excess loads to small carriers on a load-by-load basis. Others a re simply web sites supported by modest fees or advertising.) In addition, niche carr i- ers are emerging to support local same-day or next-day delivery of goods re q u i red by “e-tailers,” most of whom are not equipped to provide distribution services. I n f o rmation technology for commercial vehicle operators aimed at making travel safer and more efficient includes many commercial software packages. Examples include routing and scheduling optimization, fleet location and status monitoring, container management, marginal and average cost modeling and freight rating, and ATIS, which may be publicly or privately financed and managed. Automated message signs are an example of publicly developed ATIS. Automated weigh/inspection station bypass systems have been developed by public/private sector partnerships. More and more private ATIS technologies are being bundled with commercial communications and software packages.

THE STUDY We wanted to understand the relationships between the characteristics of tru c k i n g ﬁrms and the policy measures they favor. We looked at many diff e rent characteristics, such as truckload vs. less-than-truckload (LTL), private vs. for- h i re, contract vs. common c a rr i e r. We identiﬁed the primary service provided by these companies (general tru c k- load, general LTL, tank carr i e r, refrigerated carr i e r, household mover, bulk carrier), and the types of services provided (all of the above plus high-value, just-in-time, rail, air and maritime intermodal, and hazardous materials movements).

A C C E S S 22 Our survey asked truckers about alternative policies for mitigating congestion, essentially six strategies: (1) new dedicated truck facilities, (2) improved operations, (3) improved traffic management, (4) enhanced priority for trucks in urban settings, (5) increased road capacity, and (6) congestion tolls.

Class One: Dedicated Truck Facilities This class includes special arterial lanes for trucks, special freeway lanes for tru c k s , and dedicated truck streets. In general, the larger the ﬁrm, the more likely it is to oppose this group of remedies. That’s so because large companies make a high pro p o rtion of long distance journeys, so their drivers do not spend a lot of their time in congested urban a reas, whereas small companies are likely to operate largely in town. The trucking ﬁrm s that support these policies are typically the users of intermodal rail and maritime facilities, common carriers, and operators engaged in just-in-time deliveries.

Class Two: Improvements in Operating Efficiency Such remedies would reduce waiting time at ports and distribution centers, speed vehicle clearance at weigh stations and border crossings, and create truck-only stre e t s for access to ports and rail terminals. Some of these policies are already being implemented. Weigh stations and border crossings are moving quickly towards advanced vehicle clearance systems. Truck-only streets might have sounded unlikely a few years ago, but implementation of the Alameda corridor at the busy ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach suggest that large cooperative private/public projects are possible. Such investment naturally has the support of the system’s users and may be an attractive option for other severely congested freight hubs. This class of policies is supported by users of all three types of intermodal facilities (rail, air, and maritime), by those engaged in long-haul operations, and by truckload carriers. Private ﬂeets, on the other hand, are not as intere s t e d .

Class Three: Improvements in Tra f fic Management Policies that fit fre i g h t - i n d u s t r y perceptions of improved traffic management include, first and foremost, traffic-signal optimization, followed by electronic pre - c l e a r- ance systems at checkpoints, parking bans on some streets, and a database that tracks h a z a rdous materials loads (for use in clearing accidents). LTL operators, and small operators in general, hold the most positive attitudes toward this class of traff i c - management policies; but contract carriers and truckload operators don’t favor them. Contract carriers tend to work established, familiar routes, relying on experience ➢

23 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 and familiarity to negotiate traffic congestion; truckload carriers tend to spend most of their time on relatively less-congested highways.

Class Four: Priority for Trucks on Urban Stree t s Truck priority schemes include those allowing trucks to preempt certain traffic signals, eliminating on-street parking during certain periods, and dedicating art e r i a l lanes to truck-only traffic. Common carriers, long-haul operators, and household movers p refer this class of policies. Household movers in part i c u l a r, who regularly negotiate unfamiliar residential neighborhoods and for whom parking may be extremely diff i c u l t , stand to gain from reduced urban congestion and competition for parking.

Truckers are well- Class Five: Increased Road Capacity Operators with short hauls strongly favor strategies that increase road capacity, informed on the while long haulers do not. LTL operators and household movers are somewhat in favor of such strategies while private ﬂeet, truckload, and tank operators are not. Short haulers workings and tend to spend much of their time near urban areas or between maritime ports and railheads; and, in California and indeed in most states, the areas around major ports are failings of the US seriously congested. Long haulers tend to spend more time on the open road.

Class Six: Congestion Tol l s transportation Congestion pricing, in the form of peak-hour tolls, has some support from carr i e r s who provide just-in-time pickups and deliveries, those with short hauls and average system, and a loads, and household goods movers. Private fleets do not favor congestion pricing.

powerful lobby I M P L I C AT I O N S By concentrating on three classes of policy—those related to improved traffic on issues that management, truck priority, and better operational efficiency at truck facilities— planners can implement strategies promising to appeal to all industry segments. The ﬁr s t two seem to be most cost-effective, and all three groups can be implemented in small affect them. pieces and targeted to severely congested places. Our study elicits pre f e rences fro m a c ross the entire spectrum of the industry, allowing smaller companies to have more of a voice than they otherwise would. With this information, policy makers can choose investments that beneﬁt large segments of the industry without favoring the most vocal sector at the expense of those without as much political muscle. ◆

A C C E S S 24 F U R T H E R R E A D I N G

David A. Hensher and Tom F. Golob, “Searching for Policy Priorities in the Formulation of a Freight Transport Strategy: A Canonical Correlation Analysis of Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policy Initiatives,” Transportation Research Part E, Logistics and Transport Review, v. 35, no. 4, pp. 241-267, 1998.

Tom F. Golob and Amelia C. Regan, “Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policies to Reduce Congestion,” Transportation Research Part E , Logistics and Transportation Review, v. 36, no. 1, pp. 55-77, 1999.

Amelia C. Regan and Tom F. Golob, “Maritime Intermodal Trucking Operations in California: Industry Perceptions of Congestion Problems and Potential Solutions,” Transportation Research Part A, Policy and Practice, v. 34, no. 8, pp. 587-605, 2000.

Tom F. Golob and Amelia C. Regan, “Impacts of Highway Congestion on Freight Operations: Perceptions of Industry Managers,” Transportation Research Part A, Policy and Practice, forthcoming.

Tom F. Golob and Amelia C. Regan, “Trucking Industry Demand for Information Technologies: A Multivariate Discrete Choice Model,” Transportation Research, Part C, Emerging Technologies, forthcoming.

25 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 THE ROA D AHE A D : Managing Pavements

BY SAMER MADANAT

N E W-L A I D S T R E T C H O F PAV E M E N T is not a finished p roduct. Tr a ffic pounds it; hot sun heats and expands A it; water gets inside and washes away the soil beneath it. Depending on these forces and the quality of its design and c o n s t ruction, a pavement will last only a limited time before it needs repair or replacement. Because there are so many factors involved, it’s not possible to just schedule a replacement in x number of years. The pavement has to be checked periodically for potholes and cracks and ruts. Visual and manual inspections can be slow, hazardous, and fraught with uncert a i n t y. But that’s the way it’s always been done. N o w, however, there is a whole range of new technologies available that can quickly, accurately, and safely check the c u rrent condition of a pavement. Although the tools and techniques are not cheap, they can potentially save a lot of money by p e rmitting accurate diagnosis and rational management, thus eliminating unnecessary repairs. But the technology itself is not enough. Agencies in charge of maintaining pavements need first to accept these technological developments and then the o rganizational changes they imply.

Samer Madanat is associate professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the University of California, Berkeley ([email protected]. e d u )

A C C E S S 26 High-speed

surveying

systems

can provide

in-depth

pavement

CURRENT PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT inspection Highway agencies developed what they call pavement management systems to p rovide systematic pavement maintenance and re p a i r. Regular inspections re c o rd current conditions such as cracking, rutting, roughness, and skid resistance. A common way with a level to use this information is to consolidate it into a single number, such as the Pavement Condition Index. Managers then correlate the PCI with the pavement’s age and pre d i c t when the PCI will fall below a standardized level. Then, plans can be made for future of detail and maintenance, re p a i r, or re c o n s t ruction of the pavement. But there ’s lots of room for uncertainty in these methods. Surface conditions only hint at a pro b l e m ’s underlying causes. Although an experienced engineer can make accuracy a very good guess about what makes a road crack in a particular way, it’s still a guess. The information that goes into the index is subject to errors, from sources as diverse as technological limitations of inspection equipment, imprecise data, and human error in never before p rocessing. The perf o rm a n c e - p rediction models themselves create some uncert a i n t y. These possible errors compound, increasing the likelihood of a wrong maintenance decision. Prediction models try to account for these uncertainties by creating a broad range attainable. of decision possibilities, but basically it’s difficult to choose precisely the right re p a i r. And any time a wrong choice is made, costs go up.

NEW INSPECTION TECHNOLOGIES During the past ten to ﬁfteen years there has been rapid introduction of automated high-speed pavement-condition inspection technologies. Commercial systems now available can continuously measure and re c o rd the type, degree, and intensity of cracking; the width, depth, and pro ﬁle of rutting; and the thickness of the pavement layer, all at n o rmal driving speed. These high-speed surveying systems can provide in-depth pavement inspection with a level of detail and accuracy never before attainable. ➢

27 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 Because they can collect information at driving speed, they dispense with the need to block lanes, disrupt traffic, and endanger workers. They also are not subject to the same limitations as older methods, as for example when estimating cracking, conven- tionally a slow process involving visual observation and manual measurement. Video and laser crack detectors now identify and measure cracks quickly and accurately. Gro u n d - penetrating radar provides invaluable and here t o f o re unattainable information about pavement layer thickness. And rutting can be spotted and accurately measured with optical, laser, or ultrasonic sensors. The re v o l u t i o n a ry aspect of these new technologies, the thing that could change the way pavements are re p a i red and maintained, is the simultaneous collection of all these separate bits of information over a single stretch of pavement. No longer is it necessary to correlate piecemeal evaluations of separate factors and then guess at underlying causes. These new methods can create a complex picture of a pavement’s condition, evaluating multiple factors over a speciﬁc distance.

Although an THE INSTITUTIONAL CHALLENGE C u rrent pavement management systems work well enough, given the real limitations of equipment. Even the PCI is an acceptable, if cumbersome, way to use complex experienced and uncertain information. But the advent of new technologies offers an opportunity and a challenge to highway agencies to do better. M e rely obtaining equipment and training is not enough to assure cost savings fro m engineer can these new methods. Instead, the pavement management system itself needs to be re f o rmulated. I recommend four institutional changes to exploit all this newly available make a very i n f o rmation and promote better maintenance decisions. First, stop compiling and summarizing the information into a single index. Clearly, all the information pouring out of these new machines will go to waste if managers good guess continue to reduce the information to one generic number. Instead, develop a 3-D image that connects the various kinds of information and gives a more complete picture of pavement condition. about what Second, because we can see a deeper and more complex picture of the pavement, we can develop new computer-based predictions that eliminate much of the uncert a i n t y managers must now account for in their plans. For example, cracking is caused either by makes a road fatigue or by rapidly changing temperatures. Fatigue is a result of strain in the pavement s t ru c t u re, which in turn is a result of load (vehicle number and weight), layer thickness, and layer stiffness. On the other hand, thermal cracking is caused by thermal stre s s e s crack in a resulting from daily temperature variations. Since load, temperature, and cracking can now be continuously and accurately measured, there is enough information to determ i n e the exact cause of cracking. As a result of better understanding the causes, we can also particular way, p redict the future rate of cracking and thus allow managers to make more exact maintenance decisions. T h i rd, change the process of making maintenance decisions. With less uncert a i n t y, it’s still a guess. the need for caution in planning is lessened, so managers will be less inclined to over- compensate by ordering repairs that are pre m a t u re and too extensive. For example, if managers have more conﬁdence in their ability to predict pavement life, they can re d u c e the amounts of funds that are often set aside for emergency repair work.

A C C E S S 28 F o u rth, and perhaps most useful, develop adaptive models that can learn over time, FURTHER READING c reating an institutional memory. That is, instead of relying solely on the practiced eye Samer Madanat, “Incorporating Inspection of a human inspector who, through experience, has learned the likely causes of pavement Decisions in Pavement Management Systems,” p roblems, create a self-learning system. Adapting to feedback from real conditions as Transportation Research, v. 27B, no. 6, Pergamon they change, such a system can adjust its predictions accord i n g l y. Thus more and more Press, 1993. accurate predictions based on complex information will become available over time. Samer Madanat and Moshe Ben-Akiva, “Optimal Inspection and Repair Policies for Transportation Facilities,” Transportation Science, v. 28, no. 1, THE REAL FIX 1994. As they must in virtually every field, technological developments compel the agencies that adopt them to also adapt to them. New ways of attacking problems call for Ken Maser, Brian Bradmeyer, and Richard Littlefield, “Pavement Condition Diagnosis Based new styles of management and hence new modes of organization. As pavement manage- on Multisensor Data,” Transportation Research ment shifts from visual and manual inspection to automated monitoring, the roles of Record 11, 96 (Transportation Research Board, Washington DC, 1989). inspectors will necessarily shift as well. With demands for diff e rent skills than were f o rmerly sufficient, there will inevitably be demands for new staff equipped to superv i s e Mohammad Shahin and Steve Kohn, “Pavement and apply the new electronics and optics. In turn there will be demands for revised Maintenance Management for Roads and Parking Lots,” Technical Report M-294 (Construction methods of decision making and changed channels of authority. Engineering Research Laboratory, US Army Corps These necessary changes will not happen simply because they should. There is a of Engineers, Urbana-Champaign, IL, 1981). v e ry serious need for the re s e a rch community to assist state and federal transport a t i o n Kelvin Wang, “Designs and Implementations of agencies to improve their data-collection schemes, perf o rm a n c e - p rediction models, and Automated Systems for Pavement Surface decision-making pro c e d u res. In the 1980s, substantial re s e a rch eff o rt was dire c t e d Distress Survey,” ASCE Journal of Infrastructure Systems, v. 6, no. 1, 2000. t o w a rds developing the first generation of pavement and bridge management systems. A similar endeavor is needed now to modernize these systems, so that they can make the most of new technologies. It will no doubt take a while before the new pavement-management techniques can be fully adopted, because responsible agencies will need time to adapt themselves to the new tools and techniques. There can be no question that they will—preferably sooner than later of course. And, once the institutions do adapt, the potholes and cracks will get fixed sooner, the maintenance budgets will be smaller, and the ride will be smoother. ◆

29 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT

w Anas, Alex, Richard Arnott, and ✹ B o a rnet, Marlon G. and B rownstone, David, C e rv e ro, Robert, Alfred Round, • Kenneth A. Small Saksith Chalerm p o n g David S. Bunch and Todd Goldman, and Kang-Li Wu “Urban Spatial Stru c t u re ” “New Highways, Urban Thomas F. Golob “ B A RT @ 20: Rail Access Modes 1 9 9 7 UCTC 357 Development, and Induced Tr a v e l ” “A Demand Forecasting System for and Catchment Areas for the BART 2 0 0 0 UCTC 426 Clean-Fuel Ve h i c l e s ” S y s t e m ” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 221 1 9 9 5 UCTC 307 B a g l e y, Michael N. and Patricia L. Mokhtarian B o a rnet, Marlon G. and “Analyzing the Pre f e rence for Non- Nicholas S. Compin Burke, Andrew F. and C e rv e ro, Robert and Alfred Round Exclusive Forms of Te l e c o m m u t i n g : “ Transit-Oriented Development in Marshall Miller “ F u t u re Ride: Adapting New Modeling and Policy Implications” San Diego County: Incre m e n t a l l y “Assessment of the Greenhouse Gas Technologies to Paratransit in the 1 9 9 7 UCTC 370 Implementing a Compre h e n s i v e Emission Reduction Potential of United States” I d e a ” Ultra-Clean Hybrid-Electric Ve h i c l e s ” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 306 1 9 9 7 UCTC 343 1 9 9 7 UCTC 376 B a rth, Matthew J. and Ramakrishna R. Ta d i C e rv e ro, Robert and “An Automobile/Transit Emissions B o a rnet, Marlon G. and B u rns, Elizabeth K. C a rolyn Radisch Evaluation of Southern Californ i a ’s Randall Crane “Employee and Student Tr i p “ Travel Choices in Pedestrian M e t ro l i n k ” “L.A. Story: A Reality Check for Reduction: First Year Results fro m Versus Automobile Oriented 1 9 9 5 UCTC 279 Transit-Based Housing” M e t ropolitan Phoenix” N e i g h b o rh o o d s ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 250 1 9 9 4 UCTC 226 1 9 9 5 UCTC 281

w B l u m e n b e rg, Evelyn, Steven Moga, • and Paul M. Ong B o a rnet, Marlon G. and B u rns, Elizabeth K. C e rv e ro, Robert and “Getting We l f a re Recipients to Wo r k : Randall Crane “ I n v o l u n t a ry Mobility, Gender, and Jonathan Mason Tr a n s p o rtation and We l f a re Reform ” “Public Finance and Tr a n s i t - O r i e n t e d Travel Demand Management in “ Tr a n s p o rtation in Developing 1 9 9 8 UCTC 389 Planning: New Evidence fro m M e t ropolitan Phoenix” Countries: Conference Pro c e e d i n g s ” S o u t h e rn Californ i a ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 332 1 9 9 8 UCTC 387 1 9 9 5 UCTC 304 w B o a rnet, Marlon G. • “Business Losses, Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n B u rns, Elizabeth K. C e rv e ro, Robert and Damage, and the Nort h r i d g e w B o a rnet, Marlon G. and “Linking Geographic Inform a t i o n Peter Bosselmann E a rt h q u a k e ” • S h a ron Sarm i e n t o Systems and Trip Reduction: “An Evaluation of the Market 1 9 9 7 UCTC 341 “Can Land Use Policy Really Aff e c t Limitations in a Pilot Application” Potential for Tr a n s i t - O r i e n t e d Travel Behavior? A Study of the Link 1 9 9 4 UCTC 241 Development Using Visual Between Non-Work Travel and Land Simulation Te c h n i q u e s ” B o a rnet, Marlon G. Use Characteristics” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 247 “Geography and Public C e rv e ro, Robert 1 9 9 7 UCTC 342 I n f r a s t ru c t u re ” “ C o m m e rcial Paratransit in the 1 9 9 6 UCTC 305 United States: Service Options, C e rv e ro, Robert and Val Menotti Bosselmann, Peter and Markets and Perf o rm a n c e ” “Market Pro ﬁles of Rail-Based Elizabeth Macdonald 1 9 9 6 UCTC 299 Housing Projects in Californ i a ” B o a rnet, Marlon G. “ E n v i ronmental Quality of Multiple 1 9 9 4 UCTC 242 “Highways and Economic Roadway Boulevard s ” P roductivity: Interpreting Recent C e rv e ro, Robert 1 9 9 7 UCTC 354 E v i d e n c e ” “Subcentering and Commuting: C e rv e ro, Robert, 1 9 9 5 UCTC 291 Evidence from the San Francisco Carlos Castellanos, ✹ B rodrick, Christie-Joy, Bay Area, 1980-1990” Wicaksono Sarosa, and Daniel Sperling, and 1 9 9 6 UCTC 331 Kenneth Rich w B o a rnet, Marlon G. Christopher We a v e r “ B A RT @ 20: Land Use and • “The Direct and Indirect Economic “Multiple Smoke Opacity Development Impacts” E ffects of Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n ✹ C e rv e ro, Robert and John Beutler M e a s u rements as Indicators of 1 9 9 5 UCTC 308 I n f r a s t ru c t u re ” “Adaptive Transit: Enhancing P a rticulate Emissions for Heavy-Duty 1 9 9 7 UCTC 340 Suburban Transit Serv i c e s ” Diesel Vehicle Inspection and 1 9 9 9 UCTC 424 C e rv e ro, Robert, Michael Bern i c k Maintenance Pro g r a m s ” and Jill Gilbert B o a rnet, Marlon G. 1 9 9 9 UCTC 421 “Market Opportunities and Barr i e r s “The Economic Effects of Highway C e rv e ro, Robert, Alfred Round, to Transit-Based Development in C o n g e s t i o n ” C a rma Reed, and Brian Clark ✹ B rown, Jeff re y, Daniel Hess, and C a l i f o rn i a ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 292 “The All-Electric Commute: An Donald Shoup 1 9 9 4 UCTC 223 Assessment of the Market Potential “Unlimited Access” for Station Cars in the San Francisco B o a rnet, Marlon G. 1 9 9 8 UCTC 420 Bay Are a ” C e rv e ro, Robert, Thomas Kirk, “ Tr a n s p o rtation Infrastru c t u re , 1 9 9 4 UCTC 249 Douglas Mount, and Carma Reed Economic Pro d u c t i v i t y, and “Paratransit in the San Francisco Geographic Scale: Aggregate Gro w t h Bay Area: Providing Feeder versus Spatial Redistribution” Connections to Rail” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 255 1 9 9 5 UCTC 252

✹ Not previously listed •w Available at UCTC website

A C C E S S 30 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT

w C e rv e ro, Robert, Timothy Rood, Delucchi, Mark A. Delucchi, Mark A. and D reher, David B. and • and Bruce Appleyard “Emissions of Criteria Pollutants, Don McCubbin R o b e rt A. Harley “Job Accessibility as a Perf o rm a n c e Toxic Air Pollutants, and Gre e n h o u s e “The Contribution of Motor Ve h i c l e s “A Fuel-Based Inventory for Heavy- Indicator: An Analysis of Trends and Gases, from the Use of Altern a t i v e to Ambient Air Pollution” Duty Diesel Truck Emissions” their Social Policy Implications in the Tr a n s p o rtation Modes and Fuels” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 326 1 9 9 7 UCTC 367 San Francisco Bay Are a ” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 344 1 9 9 7 UCTC 366 Delucchi, Mark A. and Fielding, Gordon J. Delucchi, Mark A. James Murphy “Congestion Pricing and the Future w Chan, Evelyn, Adib Kanafani, and “ M o n e t a ry Externalities of Motor- “General Taxes Paid by Pro d u c e r s of Tr a n s i t ” • Thomas Canetti Vehicle Use” and Consumers of Motor Ve h i c l e s , 1 9 9 5 UCTC 330 “Transportation in the Balance: A 1 9 9 6 UCTC 318 Motor Fuels, and Other Motor- Comparative Analysis of Costs, User Vehicle Goods and Serv i c e s ” Gärling, To m m y, Mei-Po Kwan and Revenues, and Subsidies for Highway, 1 9 9 6 UCTC 328 Delucchi, Mark A. Reginald G. Golledge Air, and High Speed Rail Systems” “ M o t o r- Vehicle Goods and Serv i c e s “ C o m p u t a t i o n a l - P rocess Modelling 1 9 9 7 UCTC 363 Priced in the Private Sector” Delucchi, Mark A. and of Household Activity Scheduling” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 315 James Murphy 1 9 9 3 UCTC 217 Chan, Shirley, Matthew Malchow, “ M o t o r- Vehicle Goods and Serv i c e s and Adib Kanafani Bundled in the Private Sector” Delucchi, Mark A. G a rrison, William L. and “An Exploration of the Market for 1 9 9 6 UCTC 316 “Payments by Motor- Vehicle Reginald R. Souleyrette II Tr a ffic Inform a t i o n ” Users for the Use of Highways, “The Relationship Between 1 9 9 7 UCTC 390 Fuels, and Ve h i c l e s ” Delucchi, Mark A. and Tr a n s p o rtation and Innovation” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 327 James Murphy 1 9 9 4 UCTC 230 Chatti, Karim, John Lysmer and “ M o t o r- Vehicle Infrastru c t u re and Carl L. Monismith S e rvices Provided by the Public Delucchi, Mark A. Giuliano, Genevieve and “Dynamic Finite-Element Analysis of S e c t o r ” “Personal Nonmonetary Costs Kenneth A. Small Jointed Concrete Pavements” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 317 1 9 9 4 UCTC 283 of Motor- Vehicle Use” “The Determinants of Growth of 1 9 9 6 UCTC 314 Employment Subcenters” Delucchi, Mark A. and 1 9 9 4 UCTC 220 C h o y, Manhoi, Mei-Po Kwan and James Murphy Delucchi, Mark A. Hong Va Leong “U.S. Military Expenditures to “Some Comments on the Beneﬁts Glazer, Amihai and Charles Lave “On Real-Time Distributed P rotect the Use of Persian-Gulf Oil of Motor- Vehicle Use” “Regulation by Prices and by Geographical Database Systems” for Motor Ve h i c l e s ” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 329 C o m m a n d ” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 216 1 9 9 6 UCTC 325 1 9 9 5 UCTC 276

Delucchi, Mark A. Crane, Randall Delucchi, Mark A. and “Some Conceptual and Glazer, Amihai, Daniel B. Klein “Cars and Drivers in the New Shi-Ling Hsu Methodological Issues in the and Charles Lave Suburbs: Linking Access to Travel “The External Cost of Noise fro m Analysis of the Social Cost of “Clean on Paper, Dirty on the Road: in Neotraditional Planning” Motor Ve h i c l e s ” Mo t o r- V ehicle Use” Troubles with Californ i a ’s Smog 1 9 9 4 UCTC 239 1 9 9 6 UCTC 324 1 9 9 6 UCTC 312 C h e c k ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 275 Crane, Randall Delucchi, Mark A., James Murphy, Delucchi, Mark A. “On Form Versus Function: Will the Jin Kim, and Don McCubbin “ S u m m a ry of the Nonmonetary Golledge, Reginald D. ‘New Urbanism’ Reduce Tr a ffic, or “The Cost of Reduced Visibility Due E x t e rnalities of Motor- Vehicle Use” “ D e ﬁning the Criteria Used in I n c rease It?” to Air Pollution from Motor Ve h i c l e s ” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 319 Path Selection” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 266 1 9 9 6 UCTC 323 1 9 9 5 UCTC 278

Delucchi, Mark A. Crane, Randall Delucchi, Mark A., Jin Kim, “The Allocation of the Social Costs Golledge, Reginald G. “The Inﬂuence of Expected James Murphy, and Don of Motor- Vehicle Use to Six Classes “Object-Oriented Dynamic GIS for Suburbanization on Urban Form M c C u b b i n of Motor Ve h i c l e s ” Tr a n s p o rtation Planning” and the Journey to Wo r k ” “The Cost of Crop Losses Caused 1 9 9 6 UCTC 320 1 9 9 6 UCTC 337 1 9 9 4 UCTC 240 by Ozone Air Pollution from Motor Ve h i c l e s ” w Delucchi, Mark A. 1 9 9 6 UCTC 322 Golledge, Reginald G. w Crane, Randall and • “The Annualized Social Cost of “Path Selection and Route Pre f e re n c e • R i c h a rd Cre p e a u M o t o r- Vehicle Use in the U.S., in Human Navigation: A Pro g re s s “Does Neighborhood Design Dill, Jennifer, Todd Goldman, 1990-1991: Summary of Theory, R e p o rt ” I n ﬂuence Travel? A Behavioral and Martin Wa c h s Methods, Data, and Results” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 277 Analysis of Travel Diary and GIS “The Incidence of the Californ i a 1 9 9 6 UCTC 311 D a t a ” Vehicle License Fee” 1 9 9 8 UCTC 374 1 9 9 9 UCTC 414

31 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT

Golledge, Reginald G. Gould, Jane and Thomas F. Golob Henderson, Dennis K. and Jacobs, Allan B., Yodan Y. Rofé “ Time and Space in Route “Shopping Without Travel or Tr a v e l Patricia L. Mokhtarian and Elizabeth S. Macdonald P re f e re n c e ” Without Shopping? An Investigation “Impacts of Center- B a s e d “Multiple Roadway Boulevards: Case 1 9 9 3 UCTC 213 of Electronic Home Shopping” Telecommuting on Travel and Studies, Designs, and Design 1 9 9 7 UCTC 369 Emissions: Analysis of the Puget G u i d e l i n e s ” Sound Demonstration Pro j e c t ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 300 Golledge, Reginald G., 1 9 9 6 UCTC 349 Mei-Po Kwan and Tommy Gärling H a n d y, Susan L. “ C o m p u t a t i o n a l - P rocess Modelling of “A Cycle of Dependence: w Jia, Wenyu and Martin Wa c h s Household Travel Decisions Using a Automobiles, Accessibility, and the Henderson, Dennis K., • “Parking Requirements and Housing Geographical Information System” Evolution of the Tr a n s p o rtation and B rett E. Koenig and A ff o rdability: A Case Study of San 1 9 9 4 UCTC 218 Retail Hierarc h i e s ” Patricia L. Mokhtarian F r a n c i s c o ” 1 9 9 3 UCTC 233 “Using Travel Diary Data to Estimate 1 9 9 8 UCTC 380 the Emissions Impacts of Golledge, Reginald G., Tr a n s p o rtation Strategies: The Valerie Dougherty and Scott Bell H a n d y, Susan L. Johnston, Brian, et al. Puget Sound Te l e c o m m u t i n g “ S u rvey Versus Route-Based “Regional versus Local Accessibility: “The Design and Development of Demonstration Pro j e c t ” Wa y finding in Unfamiliar Implications for Nonwork Tr a v e l ” the University of California, Davis 1 9 9 6 UCTC 265 E n v i ro n m e n t s ” 1 9 9 3 UCTC 234 F u t u re Car” 1 9 9 3 UCTC 214 1 9 9 7 UCTC 375 H e s t e rmann, Dean W., H a n d y, Susan L. Joseph F. DiMento, w Golob, Thomas F. “Regional versus Local Accessibility: Johnston, Robert A. D rusilla van Hengel, and • “A Model of Household Demand for N e o - Traditional Development and Its “The Evaluation of Multimodal B renda J. Nord e n s t a m Activity Participation and Mobility” Implications for Non-Work Tr a v e l ” Tr a n s p o rtation Systems for “Public Works, the Courts, and the 1 9 9 6 UCTC 335 1 9 9 3 UCTC 235 Economic Efficiency and Other Consent Decree: Environmental I m p a c t s ” and Social Effects of the ‘Fre e w a y 1 9 9 4 UCTC 272 Golob, Thomas F. and Hansen, Mark and Qiang Du With a Heart ’ ” Michael G. McNally “Modeling Multiple Airport Systems: 1 9 9 7 UCTC 348 “A Model of Household Interactions A Positive Feedback Appro a c h ” Johnston, Robert A. in Activity Participation and the 1 9 9 3 UCTC 404 “The Evaluation of Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n Hsu, Shi-Ling and Daniel Sperling Derived Demand for Tr a v e l ” and Land Use Plans Using Linked “ U n c e rtain Air Quality Impacts of 1 9 9 7 UCTC 287 Economic and GIS Models” Hansen, Mark, David Gillen, Automobile Retirement Pro g r a m s ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 268 Allison Dobbins, Yuanlin Huang, 1 9 9 4 UCTC 260 w Golob, Thomas F., and Mohnish Puvathingal • Mark A. Bradley and “The Air Quality Impacts of Urban ✹ Johnston, Robert A. and Huang, William S. John W. Polak Highway Capacity Expansion: Tr a ff i c D o rriah L. Page “ B A RT @ 20: Transit and Regional “ Travel and Activity Participation Generation and Land Use Change” “Automating Urban Fre e w a y s : Economic Growth: A Review of the as Influenced by Car Availability 1 9 9 3 UCTC 398 Financial Analysis for User Gro u p s ” L i t e r a t u re ” and Use” 1 9 9 3 UCTC 427 1 9 9 5 UCTC 310 1 9 9 5 UCTC 286 Hansen, Mark, Mohammad Q u reshi and Daniel Ry d z e w s k i Johnston, Robert A. and Jacobs, Allan B., Golob, Thomas F., Seyoung Kim “ I m p roving Transit Perf o rmance with Raju Ceerla Elizabeth S. Macdonald, and Weiping Ren Advanced Public Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n “ E ffects of Land Use Intensific a t i o n Diana Marsh, and “A Structural Model of Vehicle Use System Te c h n o l o g i e s ” and Auto Pricing Policies on Regional Clark Wi l s o n in Tw o - Vehicle Households” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 392 Travel, Emissions, and Fuel Use” “The Uses and Re-uses of Major 1 9 9 4 UCTC 224 1 9 9 5 UCTC 269 Urban Arterials: A Study of Hårsman, Björn Recycling, Revitalizing, and Golob, Thomas F., Seyoung Kim, “ Worker and Wo r k p l a c e R e s t ructuring ‘Gray Are a ’ ✹ Johnston, Robert A. and and Weiping Ren H e t e ro g e n e i t y, Tr a n s p o rt Access, Tr a n s p o rtation Corr i d o r s ” Raju Ceerla “How Households Use Diff e re n t and Residential Location: A Historical 1 9 9 7 UCTC 371 “Systems-Level Evaluation of Types of Vehicles: A Stru c t u r a l Perspective on Stockholm” Automated Urban Fre e w a y s ” Driver Allocation and Usage Model” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 289 1 9 9 4 UCTC 428 Jacobs, Allan B., Yodan Y. Rofé 1 9 9 6 UCTC 361 and Elizabeth S. Macdonald Hårsman, Björn and “ B o u l e v a rds: A Study of Safety, ✹ Johnston, Robert A. and Gottlieb, Robert, et al. John M. Quigley B e h a v i o r, and Usefulness” Raju Ceerla “ H o m e w a rd Bound: Food-Related “Education, Job Requirements, and 1 9 9 4 UCTC 248 “ Travel Modeling With and Wi t h o u t Tr a n s p o rtation Strategies in Low- Commuting: An Analysis of Network Feedback to Trip Distribution” Income and Tr a n s i t - D e p e n d e n t F l o w s ” 1996 UCTC 431 C o m m u n i t i e s ” 1 9 9 8 UCTC 378 1 9 9 6 UCTC 336

✹ Not previously listed •w Available at UCTC website

A C C E S S 32 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT

✹ Johnston, Robert A. and K i rchstetter, Thomas W., Kwan, Mei-Po and Landis, John D., Raju Ceerla B rett C. Singer and Reginald G. Golledge Subhrajit Guhathakurta, “The Effects of New High-Occupancy R o b e rt A. Harley “Contributions of GIS to AT I S ” William Huang, and Ming Zhang Vehicle Lanes on Travel and “Impact of California Reform u l a t e d 1 9 9 4 UCTC 215 “Rail Transit Investments, Real Estate E m i s s i o n s ” Gasoline On Motor Ve h i c l e Values, and Land Use Change: 1 9 9 6 UCTC 429 Emissions. 1. Mass Emission Rates” A Comparative Analysis of Five Kwan, Mei-Po and 1 9 9 9 UCTC 411 C a l i f o rnia Rail Transit Systems” Reginald G. Golledge 1 9 9 5 UCTC 285 Johnston, Robert A. and “Integration of GIS with Activity- C a roline J. Rodier Klein, Daniel B., Adrian Moore , based Model in AT I S ” “Critique of Metropolitan Planning and Binyam Reja 1 9 9 5 UCTC 254 Lave, Charles O rganizations’ Capabilities for “ P ro p e rty Rights Transit: The “State and National VMT Estimates: Modeling Tr a n s p o rtation Contro l E m e rging Paradigm for Urban It Ain’t Necessarily So” Kwan, Mei-Po, Jon M. Speigle, M e a s u res in Californ i a ” Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n ” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 231 and Reginald G. Colledge 1 9 9 4 UCTC 271 1 9 9 6 UCTC 382 “Developing an Object-Oriented Testbed for Modeling Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n Leavitt, Daniel, Peter Cheng, ✹ Johnston, Robert A. and Klein, Daniel B. and N e t w o r k s ” Erin Vaca, and Peter Hall C a roline J. Rodier Adrian T. Moore 1 9 9 7 UCTC 409 “Potential for Improved Interc i t y “Regional Simulations of Highway “A Pro p e rty Rights Framework for Passenger Rail Service in Californ i a : and Transit ITS: Travel, Emissions, Transit Serv i c e s ” Study of Corridors,” Calspeed Series Kwan, Mei-Po, and Economic We l f a re Eff e c t s ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 303 1 9 9 4 UCTC 222 Reginald G. Golledge, and 1 9 9 8 UCTC 430 Jon M. Speigle Klein, Daniel B. and “A Review of Object-Oriented Lem, Lewison Lee, Jian-Ling Li Johnston, Robert A., Jay R. Lund Adrian T. Moore A p p roaches in Geographical and Martin Wa c h s and Paul P. Craig “Schedule Jockeying and Route I n f o rmation Systems for “ C o m p rehensive Tr a n s i t “Capacity-Allocation Methods for Swamping: A Pro p e rty Right Tr a n s p o rtation Modeling” P e rf o rmance Indicators” Reducing Urban Tr a ffic Congestion” I n t e r p retation of British Bus 1 9 9 6 UCTC 412 1 9 9 4 UCTC 225 1 9 9 5 UCTC 270 D e re g u l a t i o n ” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 302 Kwan, Mei-Po, Reginald G. Levine, Ned and Martin Wa c h s Kanafani, Adib, Asad Khattak, Golledge and Jon Speigle “Factors Affecting Vehicle Occupancy Melanie Cro t t y, and Joy Dahlgre n Klein, Daniel B. and Chi Yi n “ I n f o rmational Representation for M e a s u re m e n t ” “A Planning Methodology for “The Private Provision of Fro n t i e r Driver Decision Support Systems” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 350 Intelligent Urban Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n I n f r a s t ru c t u re: Toll Roads in 1 9 9 6 UCTC 333 S y s t e m s ” C a l i f o rnia, 1850-1902” Lipman, Timothy E., 1 9 9 3 UCTC 395 1 9 9 4 UCTC 238 Landis, John D. Kenneth S. Kurani and “The California Urban Future s Daniel Sperling (editors) Kiesling, Max K. and Klein, Daniel B. and Model: A New Generation of “Proceedings of the Neighborhood Mark Hansen John Majewski M e t ropolitan Simulation Models” Electric Vehicle Workshop: A “Integrated Air Freight Cost “Plank Road Fever in Antebellum 1 9 9 4 UCTC 244 Policy, Technology, and Research S t ru c t u re: The Case of Federal America: New York State Origins” Conference” E x p re s s ” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 243 1994 UCTC 258 Landis, John D. and 1 9 9 3 UCTC 400 David Loutzenheiser Klein, Daniel B. and “ B A RT @ 20: BART Access and Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia K i rchstetter, Thomas, Bre t t Pia Maria Koskenoja O ffice Building Perf o rm a n c e ” “Hot Spots of Bus Stop Crime: Singer, and Robert Harley “The Smog-Reduction Road: Remote 1 9 9 5 UCTC 309 The Importance of Enviro n m e n t a l “Impact of California Reform u l a t e d Sensing Versus the Clean Air Act” A t t r i b u t e s ” Gasoline on Motor Ve h i c l e 1 9 9 6 UCTC 301 1 9 9 8 UCTC 384 Landis, John D. and Ming Zhao Emissions. 2. Volatile Org a n i c “Pilot Study of Solano and Sonoma Compound Speciation and Reactivity” Kurani, Kenneth S., Land Use and Development Policy Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia 1 9 9 9 UCTC 413 Thomas Tu rrentine and A l t e rn a t i v e s ” “ I n n e r-City Commercial Strips: Daniel Sperling 1 9 9 4 UCTC 245 Evolution, Decay—Retro ﬁt ? ” K i rchstetter, Thomas W., “Demand for Electric Vehicles in 1 9 9 7 UCTC 353 B rett C. Singer and Hybrid Households: An Exploratory Landis, John D., R o b e rt A. Harley A n a l y s i s ” Subhrajit Guhathakurta and ✹ Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia and “Impacts of Oxygenated Gasoline Use 1 9 9 4 UCTC 232 Ming Zhang Tridib Banerjee on California Light-Duty Ve h i c l e “Capitalization of Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n “The Blue Line Blues: Why the E m i s s i o n s ” Kwan, Mei-Po and Investments into Single Family Home Vision of Transit Village May Not 1 9 9 6 UCTC 280 Reginald G. Golledge Prices: A Comparative Analysis of Materialize Despite Impre s s i v e “Computational Process Modeling C a l i f o rnia Transit Systems and G rowth in Transit Ridership” of Disaggregate Travel Behavior” H i g h w a y s ” 2000 UCTC 425 1 9 9 6 UCTC 334 1 9 9 4 UCTC 246

33 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT

Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia and Mokhtarian, Patricia L. and M u r p h y, James and ✹ Rodier, Caroline J. and Tridib Banerjee Ilan Salomon Mark A. Delucchi R o b e rt A. Johnston “ F o rm Follows Transit? The Blue “Modeling the Choice of “Review of Some of the Literature on “Method of Obtaining Consumer Line Corr i d o r ’s Development Telecommuting 2: A Case of the the Social Cost of Motor- Vehicle Use” We l f a re from Regional Tr a v e l P o t e n t i a l s ” P re f e rred Impossible Altern a t i v e ” 1 9 9 6 UCTC 313 Demand Models” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 259 1 9 9 5 UCTC 263 1 9 9 8 UCTC 432

w Noland, Robert B. and Maillebiau, Eric and Mark Hansen Mokhtarian, Patricia L. and • Kenneth A. Small ✹ Rodier, Caroline J. and “Demand and Consumer We l f a re Ilan Salomon “Simulating Travel Reliability” R o b e rt A. Johnston Impacts of International Airline “Modeling the Choice of 1 9 9 7 UCTC 372 “ Travel, Emissions, and We l f a re Liberalization: The Case of the Nort h Telecommuting 3: Identifying the E ffects of Travel Demand A t l a n t i c ” Choice Set and Estimating Binary Management Measure s ” O’Regan, Katherine M. and 1 9 9 3 UCTC 403 Choice Models for Te c h n o l o g y - B a s e d 1 9 9 8 UCTC 433 John M. Quigley A l t e rn a t i v e s ” “Accessibility and Economic 1 9 9 5 UCTC 264 Majewski, John, Christopher Baer O p p o rt u n i t y ” Rosenbloom, Sandra and and Daniel B. Klein 1 9 9 7 UCTC 362 Elizabeth Burn s “Responding to Relative Decline: The Mokhtarian, Patricia L. and “Gender Diff e rences in Commuter Plank Road Boom of Antebellum New Ilan Salomon Travel in Tucson: Implications for O’Regan, Katherine M. and Yo r k ” “Modeling the Desire to Travel Demand Management John M. Quigley 1 9 9 3 UCTC 267 Telecommute: The Importance of P ro g r a m s ” “Spatial Effect upon Employment Attitudinal Factors in Behavioral 1 9 9 3 UCTC 273 Outcomes: The Case of New Jersey M o d e l s ” M a l c h o w, Matthew, Adib Kanafani Te e n a g e r s ” 1 9 9 4 UCTC 284 and Pravin Va r a i y a 1 9 9 6 UCTC 359 Rosenbloom, Sandra and “Modeling the Behavior of Tr a ff i c Elizabeth Burn s I n f o rmation Pro v i d e r s ” Mokhtarian, Patricia L. and “Why Working Women Drive Alone: O’Regan, Katherine M. and 1 9 9 7 UCTC 396 Ilan Salomon Implications for Travel Reduction John M. Quigley “Modeling the Pre f e rence for P ro g r a m s ” “ Teenage Employment and the Telecommuting: Measuring Attitudes 1 9 9 4 UCTC 274 M a l c h o w, Matthew, Adib Kanafani Spatial Isolation of Minority and and Other Va r i a b l e s ” and Pravin Va r a i y a P o v e rty Households” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 293 “The Economics of Tr a ff i c 1 9 9 6 UCTC 290 Rubin, Jonathan D. and I n f o rmation: A State-of-the-Art Catherine Kling R e p o rt ” Mokhtarian, Patricia L., “An Emission Saved Is an Emission w O’Regan, Katherine M. and 1 9 9 6 UCTC 393 Elizabeth A. Raney and E a rned: An Empirical Study of • John M. Quigley Ilan Salomon Emission Banking for Light Duty “ W h e re Youth Live: Economic Eff e c t s “Behavioral Response to Congestion: Vehicle Manufacture r s ” Mannering, Jill S. and of Urban Space on Employment Identifying Patterns and Socio- 1 9 9 3 UCTC 253 Patricia L. Mokhtarian P ro s p e c t s ” Economic Diff e rences in Adoption” “Modeling the Choice of 1 9 9 7 UCTC 358 1 9 9 7 UCTC 373 Telecommuting Frequency in Ruud, Paul A. C a l i f o rnia: An Exploratory Analysis” “Restricted Least Squares Subject Rhoades, Krista, 1 9 9 5 UCTC 282 w Mokhtarian, Patricia L., et al. to Monotonicity and Concavity Shomik Mehndiratta, and • “Adoption of Telecommuting in Tw o C o n s t r a i n t s ” Mark Hansen C a l i f o rnia State Agencies” 1 9 9 5 UCTC 288 ✹ Marston, James R. and “Airlines and Airport Ground Access: 1 9 9 6 UCTC 338 Reginald G. Golledge C u rrent Arrangements and Future “To w a r ds an Accessible City: O p p o rt u n i t i e s ” Salomon, Ilan and Removing Functional Barriers for the Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 1 9 9 4 UCTC 399 Patricia L. Mokhtarian Blind and Vision Impaired: A Case for Michael N. Bagley, and “Coping with Congestion: A u d i t o ry Signs” Ilan Salomon Understanding the Gap Between Rodier, Caroline J. and 2 0 0 0 UCTC 423 “The Impact of Gender, Occupation, Policy Assumptions and Behavior” R o b e rt A. Johnston and Presence of Children on 1 9 9 7 UCTC 360 “Incentives for Local Governments Telecommuting Motivations and McCubbin, Don and to Implement Travel Demand C o n s t r a i n t s ” Mark A. Delucchi Management Measure s ” Schipper, Lee, 1 9 9 8 UCTC 383 “The Cost of the Health Effects of 1 9 9 5 UCTC 251 Maria Joseﬁna Figueroa, Air Pollution from Motor Ve h i c l e s ” Lynn Price, and Molly Espey. 1 9 9 6 UCTC 321 Mokhtarian, Patricia L. “Mind the Gap: The Vicious Circle of ✹ Rodier, Caroline J. and and Dennis Henderson Measuring Automobile Fuel Use” R o b e rt A. Johnston “Analyzing the Travel Behavior of 1 9 9 3 UCTC 228 w McCullough, William Shelton III, “A Comparison of High Occupancy Home-Based Workers in the 1991 • Brian D. Taylor, and Vehicle, High Occupancy Toll, and C A LTRANS Statewide Travel Surv e y ” M a rtin Wa c h s Truck-Only Lanes in the Sacramento 1 9 9 8 UCTC 415 “ Transit Service Contracting and R e g i o n ” Cost Eff i c i e n c y ” 1 9 9 9 UCTC 422 1 9 9 7 UCTC 365 ✹ Not previously listed •w Available at UCTC website

A C C E S S 34 RECENT PAPERS IN PRINT B O O K S

S h a w, John Small, Kenneth and w Wachs, Martin and Jennifer Dill Please contact the publishers “ Transit-Based Housing and José A. Gómez-Ibáñez • “Regionalism in Tr a n s p o rtation and for information about the Residential Satisfaction: Review of “Road Pricing for Congestion Air Quality: History, Interpre t a t i o n , books listed her e . the Literature and Methodological Management: The Transition and Insights for Regional A p p ro a c h ” f rom Theory to Policy” G o v e rn a n c e ” C e rv e ro, Robert 1 9 9 4 UCTC 262 1 9 9 8 UCTC 391 1 9 9 7 UCTC 355 Paratransit in America: Redeﬁni n g Mass Tra n s p o r tation (We s t p o r t, CT: Praeger Press, 1997) Shoup, Donald C. S o u t h w o rth, Michael and Wang, Quanlu, Daniel Sperling “Evaluating the Effects of Cashing Raymond Isaacs and Janis Olmstead Out Employer-Paid Parking: Eight “ S m a rtMaps for Advanced Tr a v e l e r “Emission Control Cost- C e rv e ro, Robert and Case Studies” I n f o rmation Systems Based on User E ffectiveness of Altern a t i v e - F u e l Michael Bern i c k 1 9 9 7 UCTC 352 Characteristics” Final Report Ve h i c l e s ” Transit Villages for the 21st Century 1 9 9 4 UCTC 236 1 9 9 3 UCTC 227 (New York: McGraw Hill, 1996)

Shoup, Donald C. Daganzo, Carlos F., ed. “Evaluating the Effects of Parking Sperling, Daniel w Washington, Simon P. and Tra n s p o r tation and Tra f fic Theory Cash Out: Eight Case Studies” “ P rospects for Neighborh o o d • Randall Guensler ( A m s t e rdam: Elsevier Science 1 9 9 7 UCTC 377 Electric Ve h i c l e s ” “Carbon Monoxide Impacts of Publishers, 1993) 1 9 9 4 UCTC 261 Automatic Vehicle Identiﬁc a t i o n Applied to Electronic Ve h i c l e Shoup, Donald C. To l l i n g ” DeCicco, John and “The High Cost of Free Parking” Sperling, Daniel and 1 9 9 4 UCTC 297 Mark Delucchi, ed. 1 9 9 6 UCTC 351 Mark A. Delucchi Tra n s p o r tation, Energy , and “ A l t e rnative Tr a n s p o rtation Energ y ” En v i r onment: How Far Can 1 9 9 3 UCTC 256 w Washington, Simon P. and Singer, Brett C. and Technology Take Us?(Wa s h i n g t o n , • Troy M. Yo u n g R o b e rt A. Harley D.C.: American Council for an “‘Modal’ Activity Models for “A Fuel-Based Motor Ve h i c l e Swan, D.H., B.E. Dickinson and En e rg y - E f ficient Economy, 1997) P redicting Carbon Monoxide Emission Inventory ” M . P. Arikara Emissions from Motor Ve h i c l e s ” G a rrett, Mark and Martin Wa c h s 1 9 9 6 UCTC 296 “ P roton Exchange Membrane Fuel 1 9 9 5 UCTC 295 Cell Characterization for Electric Tra n s p o r tation Planning on Tri a l : Vehicle Applications” The Clean Air Act and Tra v e l Small, Kenneth A. 1 9 9 4 UCTC 257 Washington, Simon P., Fo r ecasting (Beverly Hills: Sage “Economics and Urban Randall Guensler, and Publications, 1996) Tr a n s p o rtation Policy in the Daniel Sperling United States” Taylor, Brian D. “Assessing the Emission Impacts of 1 9 9 3 UCTC 219 “Public Perceptions, Fiscal Realities, G reene, David L. and IVHS in an Uncertain Future ” and Freeway Planning: Danilo J. Santini, ed. 1 9 9 3 UCTC 298 The California Case” Tra n s p o r tation and Global Climate w Small, Kenneth A. 1 9 9 5 UCTC 385 Change (American Council for an • “Economies of Scale and Self- Youssef, Waleed and Mark E n e rgy Efficient Economy, 1993) Financing Rules with H a n s e n Noncompetitive Factor Markets” Taylor, Brian D. and Paul M. Ong “The Consequences of Strategic Jacobs, Allan B. 1 9 9 6 UCTC 339 “Spatial Mismatch or Automobile Alliances Between Intern a t i o n a l Gr eat Streets (Cambridge: MIT Mismatch? An Examination of Race, Airlines: The Case of Swissair P ress, 1993) Residence and Commuting in US w Small, Kenneth A. and SAS” M e t ropolitan Are a s ” • “ P roject Evaluation” 1 9 9 3 UCTC 405 1 9 9 5 UCTC 386 Klein, Daniel B., Adrian T. 1 9 9 8 UCTC 3 7 9 M o o re, and Binyam Reja Curb Rights: A Foundation for Free Ve t ro v s k y, Dan and Small, Kenneth A. and Enterprise in Urban Tra n s i t Adib Kanafani Camilla Kazimi ( Washington, DC: The Bro o k i n g s “The Potential Role of Airports as “On the Costs of Air Pollution Institution, 1997) I n t e rmodal Te rminals: Lessons f rom Motor Ve h i c l e s ” f rom International and Domestic V I D E O S 1 9 9 5 UCTC 237 Sperling, Daniel E x p e r i e n c e s ” Fu t u r e Drive: Electric Vehicles and 1 9 9 4 UCTC 406 Sustainable Tra n s p o rt a t i o n w Small, Kenneth A. and Jacobs, Allan B., Yodan Y. Rofé ( Washington, DC: Island Pre s s , • Shunfeng Song and Elizabeth S. Macdonald w Wachs, Mart i n 1 9 9 5 ) “ ‘ Wasteful’ Commuting: “ B o u l e v a rds: Good Streets for Good • “Critical Issues in Tr a n s p o rtation in A Resolution” Cities” (20 min.) C a l i f o rn i a ” 1 9 9 2 UCTC 368 1 9 9 5 Video 1 Sperling, Daniel and 1 9 9 7 UCTC 347 Susan Shaheen, ed. Tra n s p o r tation and Energy : Small, Kenneth A. and w Wachs, Martin and Strategies for a Sustainable Xuehao Chu • Brian D. Ta y l o r Tra n s p o r tation System( A m e r i c a n “ H y p e rc o n g e s t i o n ” “Can Tr a n s p o rtation Strategies Help Council for an Energy Eff i c i e n t 1 9 9 7 UCTC 356 Meet the We l f a re Challenge?” E c o n o m y, 1995) 1 9 9 7 UCTC 364

35 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 RECENT DISSERTATIONS AND THESES

D i s s e rtations have not been reprinted, owing to their length. However, copies are available for $15, payable to UC Regents.

A b d e l - A t y, Mohamed Ahmed G a rcia, Reinaldo C. Levine, Jonathan Charles Rubin, Jonathan D. “Investigating the Factors Inﬂu e n c i n g “A Pareto Improving Strategy for the “Employment Suburbanization and “Marketable Emission Perm i t Route Choice: New Approaches in Time-Dependent Morning Commute the Journey to Wo r k ” Trading and Banking for Light-Duty Data Collection and Modeling” P ro b l e m ” 1 9 9 0 Diss 12 Vehicle Manufacturers and Fuel 1 9 9 5 Diss 27 1999 Diss 45 S u p p l i e r s ” 1 9 9 3 Diss 13 Levinson, David Matthew Adler, Jeff rey L. Goulias, Konstadinos G. “On Whom the Toll Falls: A Model of “An Interactive Simulation Appro a c h “Long Te rm Forecasting with Network Financing” S h a w, John to Systematically Evaluate the Dynamic Micro s i m u l a t i o n ” 1 9 9 8 Diss 39 “ Transit, Density, and Residential Impacts of Real-Time Tr a ff i c 1 9 9 1 Diss 21 S a t i s f a c t i o n ” Condition Information on Driver 1 9 9 4 Diss 28 Li, Jianling Behavioral Choice” Guensler, Randall “ I n t e r-Modal Transit Perf o rm a n c e 1 9 9 3 Diss 18 “ Vehicle Emission Rates and Av e r a g e I n d i c a t o r s ” Smith, James E. Vehicle Operating Speeds” 1 9 9 7 Diss 35 “A Comparative Study of Ben-Joseph, Eran 1 9 9 4 Diss 19 E n t re p reneurial Strategies among “Subdivision Guidelines and African-American and Latino Macdonald, Elizabeth Suzanne S t a n d a rds for Residential Streets and Truckers in the Los Angeles and H a n d y, Susan L. “Enduring Complexity: A History of their Impact on Suburban Long Beach Port s ” “Regional versus Local Accessibility: B ro o k l y n ’s Parkways” N e i g h b o rh o o d s ” 1 9 9 3 Diss 23 Variations in Suburban Form and the 1 9 9 9 Diss 46 1 9 9 5 Diss 29 E ffects on Non-Work Tr a v e l ” 1 9 9 2 Diss 5 Song, Shunfeng Mannering, Jill S. B rown, Jeff rey Richard “Spatial Stru c t u re and Urban “ D e t e rminants of the Decision to “ Trapped in the Past: The Gas Ta x C o m m u t i n g ” Kim, Seyoung Telecommute: An Empirical Analysis” and Highway Finance” 1 9 9 2 Diss 8 “Commuting Behavior of Tw o - 1 9 9 4 Thesis 43 1 9 9 8 Thesis 38 Worker Households in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Are a ” S o u l e y rette, Reginald R. II McCullough, William Shelton III Chatti, Karim 1 9 9 3 Diss 22 “ Tr a n s p o rtation Services and “ Transit Service Contracting and “Dynamic Analysis of Jointed Innovation in the Housing Industry: A Cost Eff i c i e n c y ” C o n c rete Pavements Subjected to Study of the Relations Between Kockelman, Kara Maria 1 9 9 7 Thesis 36 Moving Transient Loads” Tr a n s p o rtation and Pro d u c t i o n ” “A Utility-Theory-Consistent System- 1 9 9 2 Diss 9 1 9 8 9 Diss 7 of-Demand-Equations Approach to Nesbitt, Kevin Abolt Household Travel Choice” “An Organizational Approach to Chen, Wa n - H u i 1 9 9 8 Diss 41 Steiner, Ruth Lorr a i n e Understanding the Incorporation of “Contributing Factors in Tr a ff i c “ Traditional Neighborhood Shopping Innovative Technologies into the Crashes: A Method for Va r i a b l e Districts: Patterns of Use and Modes Kurani, Kenneth Stuart Fleet Vehicle Market with Dire c t I d e n t i ﬁcation and Selection in of Access” “Application of a Behavioral Market Application to Alternative Fuel Statistical Models” 1 9 9 6 Diss 37 Segmentation Theory to New Ve h i c l e s ” 1 9 9 8 Diss 40 Tr a n s p o rtation Fuels in New 1 9 9 6 Diss 33 Z e a l a n d ” Tu rrentine, Thomas Chu, Xuehao 1 9 9 2 Diss 15 “Lifestyle and Life Politics: To w a rds a Newman, Alexandra Mary “ Trip Scheduling and Economic G reen Car Market” “Optimizing Intermodal Rail Analysis of Tr a n s p o rtation Policies” 1 9 9 5 Diss 26 Kwan, Mei-Po O p e r a t i o n s ” 1 9 9 3 Diss 16 “GISICAS: A GIS-Interf a c e d 1 9 9 8 Diss 42 C o m p u t a t i o n a l - P rocess Model for van Hengel, Dru s i l l a D a h l g ren, Joy W. Activity Scheduling in Advanced “Citizens Near the Path of Least Pendyala, Ram Mohan “An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Traveler Information Systems” Resistance: Travel Behavior of “Causal Modeling of Travel Behavior High Occupancy Vehicle Lanes” 1 9 9 4 Diss 24 C e n t u r y Freeway Corr i d o r Using Simultaneous Equations 1 9 9 4 Diss 25 R e s i d e n t s ” Systems: A Critical Examination” 1 9 9 6 Diss 31 Lee, Richard W. 1 9 9 3 Diss 14 Delucchi, Mark A. “ Travel Demand and Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n “Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Policy Beyond the Edge: An Inquiry Walls, W. David Picado, Rosella f rom the Use of Tr a n s p o rtation Fuels into the Nature of Long-Distance “Open Access Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n , “ N o n - Work Activity Scheduling and Electricity” I n t e rregional Commuting” Network Competition, and Market E ffects in the Timing of Work Tr i p s ” 1 9 9 1 Diss 6 1 9 9 5 Diss 30 Integration in the Natural Gas 1 9 9 9 Diss 47 Pipeline Industry ” 1 9 9 2 Diss 17 Du, Ya f e n g Lem, Lewison Lee Raphael, Steven Paul “Fleet Sizing and Empty Equipment “ F a i rness or Favoritism? Geographic “An Analysis of the Spatial Redistribution for Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n Redistribution and Fiscal Equalization Yim, Yo u n g b i n D e t e rminants and Long-Te rm N e t w o r k s ” Resulting From Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n “The Relationship between Consequences of Youth Joblessness” 1 9 9 3 Diss 11 Funding Form u l a s ” Tr a n s p o rtation Services and Urban 1 9 9 6 Diss 32 1 9 9 6 Diss 34 Activities: The Food Retail Distribution Case” 1 9 9 0 Diss 20

A C C E S S 36 O R D E R F O R M ACCESS NUMBER 17, FALL 2000

U C T C # A U T H O R T I T L E Q U A N T I T Y C en ter Di r e c t o r Elizabeth E. Deakin

E d i t o r

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37 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 ACCESS BACK ISSUES

ACCESS NO. 1, FALL 1992 ACCESS NO. 4, SPRING 1994 ACCESS NO. 7, FALL 1995

Cars and Demographics Time Again for Rail? The Tr a n s p o rtation–Land Use Connection Still Matters Charles Lave Peter Hall Robert Cervero and John Landis

C o m p u l s o ry Ridesharing in Los Angeles No Rush to Catch the Train New Highways and Economic Growth: Rethinking the Link Martin Wachs and Genevieve Giuliano Adib Kanafani Marlon G. Boarnet

Redundancy: The Lesson from the Loma Prieta Eart h q u a k e Will Congestion Pricing Ever Be Adopted? Do New Highways Generate Tr a ffic? Melvin M. We b b e r Martin Wa c h s Mark Hansen

E n v i ronmentally Benign Automobiles Cashing in on Curb Parking Higher Speed Limits May Save Lives Daniel Sperling, et al. Donald C. Shoup Charles Lave

Pavement Friendly Buses and Trucks Reviving Transit Corridors and Transit Riding Is Oxygen Enough? J. Karl Hedrick, et al. Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris Robert Harley

Commuter Stress TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Love, Lies, and Tr a n s p o rtation in LA Raymond W. Novaco Charles Lave ACCESS NO. 8, SPRING 1996

F ree To Cruise: Creating Curb Space for Jitneys ACCESS NO. 2, SPRING 1993 (Out of Print)* ACCESS NO. 5, FALL 1994 Daniel B. Klein, Adrian T. Moore, and Binyam Reja

Cashing Out Employer-Paid Parking, Highway Blues: Nothing a Little Accessibility Can’t Cure Total Cost of Motor- Vehicle Use Donald C. Shoup Susan Handy Mark A. Delucchi

Congestion Pricing: New Life for an Old Idea? Transit Villages: From Idea to Implementation A re Americans Really Driving So Much More ? Kenneth A. Small Robert Cervero Charles Lave

Private Toll Roads in America—The First Time Aro u n d A New Tool for Land Use and Tr a n s p o rtation Planning S m a rtMaps for Public Transit Daniel B. Klein John D. Landis Michael Southworth

Investigating Toll Roads in California It Wa s n ’t Supposed to Tu rn Out Like This: Federal Decision-Making After Disasters: Responding to the Subsidies and Declining Transit Pro d u c t i v i t y N o rthridge Eart h q u a k e Gordon J. Fielding Charles Lave Martin Wachs and Nabil Kamel Telecommuting: What’s the Payoff? The Marriage of Autos and Transit: How to Make Tr a n s i t TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Autos Save Energy Patricia L. Mokhtarian Popular Again Sharon Sarmiento S u rviving in the Suburbs: Tr a n s i t ’s Untapped Fro n t i e r Melvin M. We b b e r Robert Cervero TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: The C A F E S t a n d a rds Wo r k e d ACCESS NO. 9, FALL 1996 Amihai Glazer ACCESS NO. 3, FALL 1993 T h e re ’s No There There: Or Why Neighborhoods Don’t Readily Develop Near Light-Rail Transit Stations Clean for a Day: California Versus the EPA’s Smog Check ACCESS NO. 6, SPRING 1995 Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris and Tridib Banerjee M a n d a t e The Weakening Tr a n s p o rtation–Land Use Connection The Century Freeway: Design by Court Decre e Charles Lave Genevieve Giuliano Joseph DiMento, Drusilla van Hengel, and Sherry Ryan S o u t h e rn California: The Detroit of Electric Cars? Bringing Electric Cars to Market Transit Villages: Tools For Revitalizing the Inner City Allen J. Scott Daniel Sperling Michael Bernick The Promise of Fuel-Cell Vehicles Who Will Buy Electric Cars? Food Access for the Transit-Dependent Mark Delucchi and David Swan Thomas Tu r r e n t i n e Robert Gottlieb and Andrew Fisher G reat Streets: Monument Avenue, Richmond,Vi rg i n i a A re HOV Lanes Really Better? The Full Cost of Intercity Tr a v e l Allan B. Jacobs Joy Dahlgren David Levinson Why California Stopped Building Freeways TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Slowdown Ahead for the Domestic The Fre e w a y ’s Guardian Angels Brian D. Taylor Auto Industry Robert L. Bertini TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Trends in Our Times Charles Lave TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Travel by Carless Households Charles Lave Richard Crepeau and Charles Lave

*Photocopies of AC C E S S No. 2 can be obtained for $10, payable to UC Regents.

A C C E S S 38 ACCESS BACK ISSUES

ACCESS NO. 10, SPRING 1997 ACCESS NO. 13, FALL 1998 ACCESS NO. 15, FALL 1999

The High Cost of Free Parking C o n g ress Okays Cash Out Requiem for Potholes Donald C. S h o u p Donald C. Shoup Carl Monismith as told to Melanie Curry

Dividing the Federal Pie Global Tr a n s p o rt a t i o n Instead of Free Parking Lewison Lee Lem Wilfred Owen Donald Shoup

Can We l f a re Recipients Aff o rd to Work Far From Home? Taxing Foreigners Living Abro a d P a rtners in Tr a n s i t Evelyn Blumenberg David Levinson Eugene Bardach, Timothy Deal, and Mary Wa l t h e r

Telecommunication vs. Tr a n s p o rtation Parking and Aff o rdable Housing Pooled Cars Pnina Ohanna Plaut Wenyu Jia and Martin Wa c h s Susan Shaheen

Why Don’t You Te l e c o m m u t e ? Lost Riders Travel for the Fun of It Ilan Salomon and Patricia L. Mokhtarian Brian D. Taylor and William S. McCullough Patricia L. Mokhtarian and Ilan Salomon

TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Speed Limits Raised, Fatalities Fall Charles Lave ACCESS NO. 14, SPRING 1999 ACCESS NO. 16, SPRING 2000

Middle Age Sprawl: BART and Urban Development What If Cars Could Drive Themselves? ACCESS NO. 11, FALL 1997 John Landis and Robert Cervero Steven E. Shladover

A New Agenda Access to Choice Power from the Fuel Cell Daniel Sperling Jonathan Levine Timothy E. Lipman

Hot Lanes: Introducing Congestion-Pricing One Splitting the Ties: The Privatization of British Rail Should We Try to Get the Prices Right? Lane at a Ti m e José A. Gómez-Ibáñez Mark Delucchi Gordon J. Fielding and Daniel B. Klein Objects in Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear An Eye on the Fast Lane: Making Freeway Systems Wo r k Balancing Act: Traveling in the California Corr i d o r Theodore E. Cohn Pravin Va r a i y a Adib Kanafani TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: Gas Tax Dilemma On Bus-Stop Crime Does Contracting Transit Service Save Money? Mary Hill, Brian Ta y l o r, and Martin Wa c h s Anastasia Loukaitou-Sideris and Robin Liggett William S. McCullough, Brian D. Ta y l o r, and Martin Wa c h s

Tracking Accessibility Robert Cervero

TH E AC C E S S AL M A N A C: The Pedigree of a Statistic Donald C. S h o u p

ACCESS NO. 12, SPRING 1998

Travel by Design? Randall Crane

Traditional Shopping Centers Ruth L. Steiner

Simulating Highway and Transit Eff e c t s John D. Landis

Cars for the Poor Katherine M. O’Regan and John M. Quigley

Will Electronic Home Shopping Reduce Tr a v e l ? Jane Gould and Thomas F. Golob

39 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000 THE ACCESS ALMANAC The Parking of Nations

BY DONALD SHOUP AND SETH ST A R K

You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone. They paved paradise and put up a parking lot. — Joni Mitchell

E H I C L E O W N E R S H I P i n c reased much faster in the US than in other nations during the 20th century. For every 1,000 persons, the US had 87 vehicles in 1920, 325 vehicles in 1950, and 767 in 1995. Ownership rates in 28 other V nations in 1995 are noted in the accompanying graph to correspond with the year in which the US had the same rate. For example, in 1995 Bangladesh had the same vehicle-ownership rate as the US in 1905, Argentina the same as the US in 1925, and Denmark the same as the US in 1956. T h e re were 647 million vehicles on earth in 1995. If the rest of the world had matched the 1995 US ownership rate, there would have been 4.4 billion vehicles. Parking would be a global problem. How much space does it take to park 4.4 billion cars? A typical parking lot holds about 130 cars per acre. At this density, 4.4 billion parked cars re q u i re a parking lot about the size of England or Greece. There are currently at least four parking spaces per car in the US. At four spaces per car, 4.4 billion cars re q u i re a parking lot about the size of France or Spain. More cars also re q u i re more land for highways, service stations, used car dealers, repair shops, automobile graveyards, and tire dumps. F o rt u n a t e l y, the rest of the world is still far behind the US in vehicle ownership. Wi t h only 5 percent of the world’s population in 1995, the US owned 31 percent of the world’s motor vehicles. The rest of the world had the average vehicle-ownership rate in 1995 that the US had in 1920—only 82 vehicles per 1,000 persons. The rate in the US was nine times higher than in the rest of the world in 1995, but other countries are following the vehicle- acquisition trail the US blazed through the 20th century. Outside the US, the number of vehicles grew 2.7 times faster than the number of people between 1980 and 1995. P rojections are not necessarily good forecasts, of course. For example, transport a- tion created huge piles of horse manure in cities a century ago, and disaster seemed imminent. Then the horseless carriage came along and solved that problem. Horseless c a rriages now create a parking problem, but new remedies may yet arrive. After all, we don’t want to pave France or Spain to put up a parking lot. ◆

S o u rce: World Statistics Pocketbook (New York: United Nations, 1997)

A C C E S S 40 800

GUAM 7 6 3 750

700 Vehicle Ownership Rates in Other LUXEMBOURG 6 5 5 650 Countries, 1995

600 CANADA 5 9 8 AUSTRALIA 5 9 0

I TA LY 5 6 6 NEW ZEALAND 5 5 8 550 GERMANY 5 2 9 J A PAN 5 2 3

500 FRANCE 5 0 1 SWEDEN 4 8 7 BELGIUM 4 6 7 450 S PAIN 4 3 6 UNITED KINGDOM 4 2 8 FINLAND 4 2 3 NETHERLANDS 4 0 6 400 DENMARK 3 8 7 Q ATAR 3 7 8

350 SAUDI ARABIA 3 3 5 CZECH REPUBLIC 3 3 9

IRELAND 3 0 9 300 GREECE 2 9 1

BAHAMAS 2 6 8 250 ISRAEL 2 4 6 US Ve h i c l e POLAND 2 3 2 BULGARIA 2 1 6 Ownership Rate, 200 1900 – 1995 ARGENTINA 1 7 0

150 SINGAPORE 1 5 1 MEXICO 1 3 6

100 BRAZIL 6 4

INDIA 6 50 CHINA 5 B A N G L A D E SH 1

0 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

41 A C C E S S NUMBER 17, FALL 2000