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PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSCURRENT OF HISTORY related titles from oneworld Argentina: A Short History, Colin M. Lewis, ISBN 1–85168–300–3 Britain: A Short History, T.A. Jenkins, ISBN 1–85168–266–X Egypt: A Short History, James Jankowski, ISBN 1–85168–240–6 India and South Asia: A Short History, David Ludden, ISBN 1–85168–237–6 Ireland: A Short History, Joseph Coohill, ISBN 1–85168–238–4 Japan: A Short History, Mikiso Hane, ISBN 1–85168–239–2 Morocco: A Short History, C.R. Pennell, ISBN 1–85168–303–8 The Palestine Israeli Conflict: A Beginners Guide, Dan Cohn-Sherbok and Dawoud El-Alami, ISBN 1–85168–332–1 Pre-Industrial Societies: Anatomy of the Pre-Modern World, Patricia Crone, ISBN 1–85168–311–9 Russia: A Short History, Abraham Ascher, ISBN 1–85168–242–2 Slavery and Freedom in Colonial Brazil, A.J.R. Russell-Wood, ISBN 1–85168–288–0 Turkey: A Short History, Feroz Ahmad, ISBN 1–85168–241–4 PAKISTAN AT THE CROSSCURRENT OF HISTORY Lawrence Ziring PAKISTAN: AT THE CROSSCURRENT OF HISTORY Oneworld Publications (Sales and Editorial) 185 Banbury Road Oxford OX2 7AR England www.oneworld-publications.com # Lawrence Ziring 2003 All rights reserved. Copyright under Berne Convention A CIP record for this title is available from the British Library ISBN 1–85168–327–5 Cover design by Design Deluxe Cover photograph: The Pakistani Army base in Mushong # Siem Vaessen/Corbis Sygma Typeset by LaserScript, Mitcham, UK Printed and bound in China by Sun Fung Offset Binding Co. Ltd NL08 For Anya Ranae That her generation will possess wisdom CONTENTS List of maps x Preface xi ONE THE ORIGINS OF PAKISTAN 1 Jinnah and Gandhi and the struggle for a secular 4 state The emergence of the Pakistan movement 13 The British role in the emergence of Pakistan 26 Defining the Pakistan ethos 39 Bibliography 43 TWO POLITICAL ASPIRATIONS 45 The center and the periphery 47 The Jinnah legacy 51 The violence factor 58 The demise of the Muslim League 62 Bibliography 66 THREE THE MILITARY AND POLITICS 68 The road to martial law 73 The Ayub Khan era 81 Bibliography 91 viii Pakistan: At the Crosscurrent of History FOUR YEARS OF WAR: THE TURNING POINT 92 The gathering storm 97 The Pakistan–India war of 1965 and its aftermath 103 The end of the Ayub era 108 The Yahya Khan interregnum and the civil war 114 Internationalizing a civil war 123 Bibliography 128 FIVE REDEFINING PAKISTAN 130 Bhutto’s Pakistan: the external dimension 133 Bhutto’s Pakistan: the internal dimension 139 The fall of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto 145 The elections and the aftermath 157 Bibliography 160 SIX ISLAMIZATION 163 Zia and Islamist politics 169 The realities of Zia’s Islamist policy 173 The Zia legacy 182 The end of the Zia era 198 Bibliography 202 SEVEN DEMOCRACY AND HYPOCRISY 204 Political revival 207 Democracy revisited? 216 The Afghanistan factor 222 The politics of chaos 225 Bibliography 228 EIGHT THE EXTERNALITIES OF DOMESTIC CHANGE 229 The caretaker government 231 The second Benazir Bhutto administration 233 The end of the Benazir Bhutto era 238 The second Nawaz Sharif administration 244 Anatomy of a coup 251 Bibliography 257 Contents ix NINE THE POLITICS OF TERRORISM 259 The Musharraf factor 265 Political evolution and revolution 273 Antecedents to September 11 276 A summing up 287 Bibliography 292 TEN CHOOSING SIDES 294 The road to September 11 301 The war on terrorism 303 Terrorism and the nation-state 315 ELEVEN DEFINING THE FUTURE 320 The Musharraf reforms? 325 The real Musharraf reforms? 332 Prelude to an election 348 Electronic sources and writers consulted for 356 chapters 10 and 11 TWELVE STILL ANOTHER CROSSROADS 359 Immediate and long-term consequences 365 Index 371 MAPS Pakistan, 1947–71 xvi Pakistan today xvi Major ethnic groups 162 Pakistan: topography 162 Pakistan and the World 358 x PREFACE Pakistan: At the Crosscurrent of History was completed approxi- mately six years after publication of my Golden Jubilee volume Pakistan in the Twentieth Century, published by Oxford University Press in 1997. This smaller volume traces many of the events described in that earlier work, but the focus of Pakistan in the Twentieth Century did not anticipate the ongoing impact on Pakistan’s overall development of its venture into Afghanistan well after the last Soviet soldier departed from the neighboring mountain state. When that more detailed history was nearing completion the Taliban had not yet occupied Kabul and therefore it was not yet clear what their role would be in that troubled country, let alone what Pakistani leaders, notably in the army, intended to accomplish by their intimate association with militant Islamic students. Also not clarified at the time was the role to be played by the non-Afghan Muslims (especially Arabs) and thousands of Pakistani volunteers who had filtered back into Afghanistan following the Red Army withdrawal. The latter’s assistance in the consolidation of Taliban gains as well as in transforming the country from a loosely knit and conflicted tribal order into a centralized Islamic emirate could not have been foreseen. Nor was it possible to predict Osama bin Laden’s return to Afghanistan in 1996, or, for that matter, the extent to which Taliban and bin Laden’s al-Qaeda intertwined. Pakistan’s continuing role in Afghanistan was expressed in xi xii Pakistan: At the Crosscurrent of History Islamabad’s security interests, but here again it was not yet public information the extent to which Pakistan, the Taliban, and al- Qaeda, had overlapping interests. Also not realized at the time was the shift in the importance given to Pakistan’s Islamist organiza- tions, how they related to Muslim movements elsewhere, or how they became central to Pakistan’s political experience. Since they were never successful at the polls, it was only later that one could argue that the real power of the Islamists did not turn on success or failure in the electoral process. Pakistan’s conventional political parties, that is, the more secular organizations, had become less significant in a country forced to accept frequent and extended periods of military rule. Moreover, only later was it fathomed how far the traditional political parties had been neutered by the Pakistan army, and, in light of this development, how the Islamists were able to elevate their profile by more intimate association with the country’s armed forces. Kashmir factored into this equation. An old problem, the Kashmir issue was ready made for the Islamists and also connected them and the Pakistan armed forces with the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Nor could anyone have forecast the events of September 11, 2001. The destruction of the World Trade Center in New York City and the bombing of the Pentagon in Washington trailed back to Afghanistan, and hence to Pakistan as well. It is generally assumed that the events of September 11, 2001 changed the world. They certainly changed Pakistan. If Pakistan was ever judged remote and on the margins of history, 9/11 altered attitudes and perceptions, and for a great many brought an end to such thoughts. For contemporary observers of the world condi- tion, Pakistan today is a pivotal country, a demonstrated nuclear power since 1998, that can no longer be taken for granted or denied access to the inner sanctum of world powers. Pakistan’s past and present are equally important because neither one or the other alone can inform the concerned world about the challenges burdening that large Muslim country. To understand Pakistan today is to read the history of the country from its roots in the early years of the twentieth century to the current period a century later. This volume represents almost two years of labor and more than four decades of exposure to this fascinating land. The book is meant to edify the uninformed as well as to assist the scholar in charting the course of Pakistan’s history. Preface xiii The book, like so many other brief histories, has required compression, and therefore much is left unsaid. Nevertheless, the essential details are to be found in this text, as well as the author’s attempt to interpret what events mean and what they are likely to indicate for the future. There is much therefore in this small volume to inform as well as to provoke thinking. It is impossible to spend so much of your life chronicling a nation and not to be left with impressions and some rather strong points of view. This volume therefore is also an interpretive essay, intended to broaden understanding, but also meant to explore consequences. So I have avoided using the usual format of including citations and footnotes. My objective was the production of a quick read, a book that could be read as one would read a story rather than a scholarly tract. I decided when I began that the book should be read without interruptions. Whatever needed saying would be incorporated in the ongoing narrative, and readers sufficiently energized could then find more detailed discussions in other works already or yet to be written. Mindful, however, of my obligations to the academic community, I have included a list of sources used or consulted in every chapter through chapter 9. Chapters 10 and 11, however, were prepared exclusively from electronic sources; a list of websites and writers that have provided me with a chronology of events as well as influenced my analysis is found at the end of chapter 11. Finally, let me note that writing Pakistan: At the Crosscurrent of History has been a long, difficult, even grueling experience.