Trumpublicans Face Impeach Risks President Trump Will Survive Trial, but History Shows GOP Could Face a Brutal Election by BRIAN A

Home , Lev Parnas, Mara Candelaria Reardon, Peggy Noonan

V25, N18 Thursday, Jan. 23, 2020

Trumpublicans face impeach risks President Trump will survive trial, but history shows GOP could face a brutal election By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – President Trump doesn’t look to be in much danger of losing his office this winter. But if history teaches us anything from past 20th Century impeachment efforts, his reelection is on thin ice next Novem- ber and his Trumpublicans may face harrowing losses outside of Indiana. The latest polling comes for CNN and Monmouth that had 49% favoring impeachment, with 51% in CNN and Pew Research and 50% in Monmouth backing his removal from office. This doesn’t appear to be enough to dislodge any of the 53 Senate Republicans from voting for his acquittal (Sen. Mike Braun predicted acquittal on Chief Justice John G. Roberts, a native of Long Beach, Ind., heads to the Senate Wedneday), but it bodes ill for his reelection and impeachment trial of President Trump, admonishing both sides on the first day. the party’s prospects this November. is enough polling on this to establish a trend: Washington That 69% in the CNN/SRS Poll (including 48% Post/ABC News: 71% supporting witnesses to 22% who of Republicans) want witnesses in the Senate trial is also Continued on page 3 fascinating and portends ominously for the GOP. And there Notice is the basis By LINDA CHEZEM MARTINSVILLE – Yes, Indiana, better than believ- ing in Santa Claus, we can trust some of our legislators. Last week, I had a casual conversation with an intellectu- ally honest and smart legislator. We were discussing plan- “I thought our team did a very ning and zoning and local government. He made this reassuring good job. But honestly, we have and remarkable statement in his typical low-key fashion: “Notice is all the material. They don’t have the basis of everything.” the material.’’ I heard no sleigh bells or angels nor did I see stars in - President Trump, at a the sky. We wrapped the con- presser in Davos, bragging that he versation because he has a lot of work to do and I try not to be has withheld evidence sought by overly tedious. The representa- House Democrats for the impeach- tive’s words started to display on the screen in my head like a ment trial. Page 2 skywriting airplane circling the track. In the criminal justice world, As I have been in meetings and doing Miranda warnings are given, and other fun stuff like writing contracts rights are better protected. Why then this week, questions about proper would we settle for less when our notice keep appearing. civil constitutional rights are at risk This Hoosier representative and we have committed no crime? Howey Politics Indiana was right. His words should be re- Hoosiers appear to accept WWWHowey Media, LLC played at the start of every legislative opacity in lieu of transparency and c/o Business Office session. We need strong and intel- accountability. We voters need to PO Box 6553 lectually honest strategies to assure issue a wake-up call to all who would adequate notice. The usual political run for office this year, from court- Kokomo, IN, 46904 platitudes such as the nauseatingly house to schoolhouse to statehouse. www.howeypolitics.com overused word “transparency” are Voters should want to know what not adequate. Some days, I want to decisions our government is making Brian A. Howey, Publisher scream “hypocrite” at the officials who and how taxpayer money is being Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington pontificate about saving money and spent. Public notice has to be public then tout their transparency in the to be adequate notice. Mary Lou Howey, Editor next sentence. The foregoing paragraphs Susan E. Joiner, Editor The past masters of the wal- could serve as an introduction to nut shell game are in this notice game many topics of voter concern. Pas- Subscriptions bigtime. “Let me give you a web site. Oh, you cannot HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 find that consulting contract? HPI Weekly, $350 Oh, we are moving things Lisa Hounchell, Account Manager around.” Notice by U.S. mail (765) 452-3936 telephone is nice; while certified mail is (765) 452-3973 fax expensive, it may not always [email protected] be effective. When the mail is not picked up, there is no Contact HPI actual notice but the local [email protected] governments proceed as Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 though the failure of notice was a refusal of notice. Washington: 202.256.5822 No amount of convenience sage of ordinances and planning and Business Office: 765.452.3936 nor money is worth letting our con- zoning matters are the most egre- stitutional rights slide away under gious local problems, but the state © 2020, Howey Politics the flag of fiscal stringency. We must agencies do not deserve a pass on Indiana. All rights reserved. be alert to the threats to property their lack of meaningful notice. Some ownership and livelihood by govern- good work is underway to devise a Photocopying, Internet forward- ment, quasi-government, and private solution for the blending of electronic ing, faxing or reproducing in any entities. The single most important and print notice requirements. The form, whole or part, is a violation right that protects us from medieval need for a solution that supports the of federal law without permission serfdom is the right to own property. local gathering and reporting of the from the publisher. The Magna Carta started this owner- actions in the local communities is ship right but notice rights need more under-recognized, but imperative. work. More will be revealed after this legis- Jack E. Howey The non-elected of us also lative session. editor emeritus should be engaged in the notice is- But in the meantime, any 1926-2019 sues and must ask how might we legislator that wants to encourage protect the rights of ordinary people? better notice and information for The first answer is to assure adequate voters should vote “No” on these two notice. If a person does not receive bills: adequate notice of proposed actions 1. HOUSE BILL No. 1310: that impinge on one’s rights, then all Public notice requirements. Provides rights are meaningless. We cannot that a political subdivision may not defend our rights against threats of pay more than $300 for each inser- which we know nothing. tion of a public notice. Provides that Page 3 if: (1) the cost of a public notice that is required to be any adverse impact of the development on the agricultural published exceeds $300; or (2) a public notice corrects a nature of the neighborhood. That same information should previous public notice that contains an error or omission; be published electronically on web sites normally used by publication of the public notice on the political subdivision’s the community and in print media used by that govern- Internet web site satisfies the requirements applicable to mental unit for legal notices as displayed advertising, just the publication of such notices. like a political campaign ad, not the fine print cheap sec- 2. HOUSE BILL No. 1003: Education matters. tion. Eliminates the requirement that an annual performance To protect our constitutional rights, voters will report for a school corporation must be published in a have to demand adequate and meaningful notice require- newspaper. Makes conforming amendments. ments for government and other actions. Without notice, In contrast, the House Bill 1339 requiring the rights become meaningless. If we cannot defend our county legislative body’s approval of purchasing property rights, then we stand to lose them. The good news is that for redevelopment in an agricultural zone is a step in the Indiana has a few legislators that understand rights are right direction. In addition to the notice requirements in everything to a free people. And that “notice is the basis place for redevelopment purchases, a requirement should for everything.” v be added that that the landowners and residents of the area must be given a binding description of what the Chezem is a former Indiana appellate court judge. proposed development entails and a neutral evaluation of She practices law in Martinsville.

Little wonder that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell Impeachment, from page 1 is leery of allowing additional witnesses like former nation- don’t; Quinnipiac: 66% to 17%; and Morning Consult/Po- al security advisor John Bolton or Rudy Giuliani henchman litico: 57% to 24% Lev Parnas that could add sensational testimony into this Political Wire’s Taegan Goddard obseved, “By stew. repeatedly blocking Democratic amendments Why does this analysis portend to a GOP disaster, yesterday, Republicans are going against the particularly when our June 2016 warn- clear will of the people. ing of a blue wave reversed its course “An even bigger risk for Republi- when the final WTHR/Howey Politics cans is that additional evidence will almost Indiana Poll in November 2016 had certainly come out about the president’s Trump with an 11% lead in Indiana? wrongdoing. Late last night, new emails were Because President Trump is in released showing budget officials had already territory that President Nixon avoided laid the groundwork to freeze military aid the until the very end when his GOP base day before the president’s fateful phone call support collapsed, and President Clin- with Ukraine’s president. There will be more. ton never experienced. And the campaign ads will write themselves. In 1998-99, President Clinton Republicans are abetting a cover-up.” enjoyed wide popular support. Gallup House Intelligence Chairman Adam put his job approval at 60% in the Schiff, one of the House managers, warned summer of 1998 at a time of stained Tuesday, “The facts will come out in the blue dresses, while the commander- end. The documents, which the president is in-chief schooled us in the definition hiding, will be released through the FOIA or of what the word “is” was. His approv- through other means over time. Witnesses will tell their al spiked to 73% after the December House impeachment stories in book and film. The truth will come out. The vote. question is, will it come out in time?” In contrast, President Trump’s approve/ The danger for Republicans is that Senate trial disapprove numbers were 43/52% in the Monmouth Poll rules are supposed to keep them mute for the next couple while the national right/wrong track numbers are a dismal of weeks and the trial duration, while Democratic House 37/56%, despite the red hot economy. CNN put his job ap- managers lay out their case in detail against the president. proval at 45/51%. President Trump can be expected to weigh in via Twit- According to Pew Research, only 30% favored ter, which has already contributed to his low approval and Clinton’s removal from office prior to his Senate acquittal, national right/wrong track numbers. or 19% below where President Trump stands. The fact that nearly half of likely voters back As for President Nixon, in the spring of 1974 Gal- impeachment and/or removal from office is new territory. lup had just 44% who thought he should be removed from Page 4

office, while just 41% disagreed. After the Supreme Court denial of the Lewinsky affair allegations found that 71% ordered Nixon to surrender the so-called “smoking gun” of Americans approved of how he was handling his job audio tapes, 57% favored his removal. as president, 10 percentage points higher than a survey Why do we believe this could be a dicey predica- taken just before the scandal broke. Clinton benefited from ment for Republicans beyond Indiana (we do not be- widespread support for his policies and skepticism about lieve Gov. Eric Holcomb, any of the the media’s coverage of the allegations. congressional incumbents of the “While that initial boost faded over GOP’s legislative majorities are in any time, Clinton’s approval rating in August danger)? 1998 was still a robust 62%, where Because presidential it remained for months – throughout approval and the right/wrong track his admission of the affair, the release numbers translate into potential of the Starr report and the opening of down ballot races (right, Gov. Matt impeachment proceedings. Bevin?). Clinton’s approval hit 71% In 1998, Democrats actu- again in mid-December, after the House ally picked up five seats in the U.S. vote to impeach him,” Pew observed. House, seven in the Indiana House, “The Center’s results were consistent and did not pick up any Senate seats with polling by other organizations, despite it being President Clinton’s which typically found between a quar- second mid-term election. It was ter and a third of Americans favoring the first time since 1934 that the Clinton’s impeachment. That contrasted non-presidential party failed to gain with the Watergate situation, which congressional seats in a mid-term saw public support for Nixon’s impeach- election. It was also the first time ment steadily rise as more and more since 1822 that the non-presidential was learned about the scandal.” party had failed to gain seats in the Here’s another difference between mid-term election of a president’s the Nixon and Clinton impeachments, second term. according to Pew Research: “Unlike the Watergate hear- In 1974, Democrats won net gains of four seats in ings, which gripped much of the country in 1973, Ameri- the Senate, 49 seats in the House, and four seats in the cans largely tuned out the proceedings against Clinton.” gubernatorial elections. The Democrats won the nation- The TV networks, along with the cable channels, wide House popular vote by 16.8%. There were other carried the opening arguments on Wednesday, though elements at play, including President Ford’s pardon of viewership is unknown at this point. Nixon, and Ford’s WIN (Whip Inflation Now) program. But If there’s solace for Trump and his Republicans, it 1974 is known as the “Watergate election” and it resulted is that many Americans are not following his impeachment in far-reaching down ballot gains for Democrats, who won like they did Nixon’s. But in their peripheral vision, about majorities in the Indiana House and Senate. In fact, 1974 half of registered voters don’t like what they are seeing was the last time for Democratic Indiana Senate control. and hearing. And unlike 2016, the loathed Hillary Clinton Pew Research observed: “Trump’s approval will not be on the ballot. ratings have been fairly stable since the early days of his Who the Democrats nominate will certainly have presidency, but at a considerably lower level – around 40% an impact, but if you’re a Republican on the ballot this No- in a summer 2019 Pew Research Center survey. A Pew vember, best be prepared to batten down the hatches.v Center survey taken shortly after Clinton’s Jan. 26, 1998, Page 5

ous super PAC funder for the Trump campaign, to a prized station in Giuliani’s inner circle. “President Trump knew Vice President Pence’s exactly what was going on,” Parnas said in the Maddow in- terview. “That’s the secret that they were trying to keep,” very bad week he added. “I was on the ground doing their work.” “Their work” included President Trump’s shake- By BRIAN A. HOWEY down of the new Ukrainian President Zelensky. In the INDIANAPOLIS — When it became clear that spring of 2019, it was Parnas who demanded on behalf he was a rare Republican of stature willing to ante up to of Giuliani, Trump’s personal attorney and shadow secre- Donald Trump’s ticket in 2016, Mike and Karen Pence were tary of state, that Zelensky announce an investigation of warned by loving friends and allies of the risks being as- Hunter Biden. When Zelensky refused, the following day it sociated with a profane, unpredictable billionaire. was announced Pence would not attend his inauguration. Some three years later, this past week was one of “The announcement was the key at that time the worst for Vice President Pence’s tenure as President because of the inauguration and I told him Pence would Trump’s loyal sidekick. He was implicated by an indicted not show up, nobody would show up to his inauguration,” creature named Lev Parnas, who has emerged from under Parnas said. Asked if Pence Rudy Giuliani’s inner was aware of the quid pro circle, in the mush- quo, Parnas said, “I’m go- rooming Ukraine scan- ing to use a famous quote dal that has resulted in from [Ambassador Gordon] Trump’s impeachment. Sondland. Everybody was Pence was likened to in the loop.” a “wax museum guy” Parnas made in the new book on the same point to CNN’s Trump, “A Very Stable Anderson Cooper, who Genius.” And he was asked if Pence was aware rebuked by President that the administration John F. Kennedy’s was withholding military grandson when he ref- assistance to enforce its erenced JFK’s Pulitzer demand on Ukraine. “Of Prize-winning book, course,” he replied. “Profiles in Courage” in “I don’t know the a Wall Street Journal guy,” Pence told reporters op-ed in the context of in Tampa, Fla., when asked Trump’s Senate im- about Parnas, echoing a peachment trial. similar sentiment from Former Vice Trump. “These allegations President John Nance are being made by a man Garner once referred who is currently out on to his office as “not bail for federal crimes and worth a bucket of warm is desperate to reduce his piss.” For Pence, it is exposure to prison,” White a perceived path to Both President Trump and Vice President Trump have disavowed knowing House press secretary his dream job of being Lev Parnas, but a number of photos have surfaced showing otherwise. The Stephanie Grisham added. president, though he center photo is Parnas and Trump’s personal attorney Rudolph Giuliani with Should Democrats con- now finds his boss’s then Senate candidate Mike Braun in Warren County in October 2016. vince four Senate Repub- errant behavior, not to mention the aspirations of Donald licans to allow witnesses at the impeachment trial, Parnas Trump Jr., and the indignities of his perceived supplication is poised as a potentially sensational one. and descriptions of toadyism as impediments as opposed On Monday, Parnas’s attorney Joseph Bondy to future attributes for advancement. released a video showing his client with Vice President The Parnas implication came Tuesday on Mike Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence, saying, “Mike MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow Show. Parnas, who faces cam- Pence does indeed know the guy.” The video shows Parnas paign finance charges after traipsing around the country seated at a table as the Pences approaching. The Vice — including an October 2018 campaign stop for Hoosier President is seen talking to someone off-camera, while Republicans in Warren County including Senate candidate the Second Lady pats Parnas’ back. Bondy also included Mike Braun — with Giuliani. Parnas worked his way from the hashtags, “#LevRemembers,” “#LetLevSpeak,” and being a salesman for Trump’s father to becoming a gener- “#TheyAllKnew.” Page 6

In the book “A Very Stable Genius” by Washington Post reporters Philip Rucker and Carol Leonnig, Pence is depicted as a “deer-in-the- headlights” figure as they re- count the July 20, 2017, meeting in the Pentagon’s secure briefing room, The Tank. It was an effort by Defense Sec. Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and economic advisor Gary Cohn to school the new president in the value of post World War II alliances. The resulting fiasco prompted Tillerson to characterize Trump as a “f---ing moron.” “What happened in- sideTthe Tank that day crystal- lized the commander-in-chief’s berating, derisive and dismis- Vice President Pence and Second Lady Karen Pence with Lev Parnas in a video the indicted friend of sive manner, foreshadowing Rudy Giuliani’s attorney posted on Monday. decisions such as the one earlier this month that brought peachment trial conviction by one vote. the United States to the brink of war with Iran,” Rucker “In his book, Kennedy borrows his definition of and Leonnig write. “The Tank meeting was a turning point courage from Ernest Hemingway: ‘Grace under pressure.’ in Trump’s presidency. Rather than getting him to appreci- Edmund Ross showed such grace on that fateful day in ate America’s traditional role and alliances, Trump began 1868. Will we see it again?” Pence writes. “Now, as all eyes to tune out and eventually push away the experts who turn to the U.S. Senate and another partisan impeachment, believed their duty was to protect the country by restrain- the parallels between Ross’s time and our own are strik- ing his more dangerous impulses. ‘You’re all losers,’ Trump ing.” said. ‘You don’t know how to win anymore. I wouldn’t go While it wasn’t quite Sen. Lloyd Bentsen’s to war with you people,” Trump told the assembled brass. “You’re no Jack Kennedy” rebuke of Vice President Dan Addressing the room, the commander-in-chief barked, Quayle in the 1988 vice presidential debate, JFK’s grandson ‘You’re a bunch of dopes and babies.’ Jack Schlossberg said Saturday that Pence’s recent op-ed The account continues: “The more perplexing is a “total perversion of JFK’s legacy and the meaning of silence was from Pence, a leader who should have been courage.” able to stand up to Trump. Instead, one attendee thought, In a series of tweets, Schlossberg wrote that Pence ‘He’s sitting there frozen like a statue. Why doesn’t he stop “is right to celebrate Ross, a public servant who, foresee- the president?’ Another recalled the vice president was ‘a ing his own defeat, nonetheless summoned the courage wax museum guy.’ From the start of the meeting, Pence to vote his conscience, and put the national interest above looked as if he wanted to escape and put an end to the his own. But let’s not be confused.” Trump “was impeached president’s torrent. But some surmised Pence feared get- because he did the exact opposite -- he put his own inter- ting crosswise with Trump. ‘A total deer-in-the-headlights,’” ests ahead of our country’s national security and, in the recalled a third attendee. process, broke federal law.” As the week drew to a “Pence and congressio- close, Pence quoted from JFK’s nal Republicans have also “Profiles in Courage” on the failed the test of courage,” need for the Senate to dismiss Schlossberg wrote. “Rather the impeachment case against than risk their career or en- President Trump resulting from dure personal reprisal, they the Ukraine scandal. Pence excuse the president’s and cited Kansas Sen. Edmund V. others’ admitted wrongdo- Ross for defying his fellow Re- ing and disgraceful behav- publicans, preventing President ior.”. v Andrew Johnson’s 1868 im- Page 7

we need good-paying jobs and ways for Hoosiers to get the skills and training needed for them. We’re in the final Holcomb files; Myers, stages of qualifying for the ballot and will soon be turning our full energy to listening to Hoosiers everywhere and Owens say they are fundraising to support spreading our message to every corner of the state to win this election.” on signature pace Holcomb’s early filing came as the Morning Consult Poll put his approval at +28%. He is +57% among Repub- By BRIAN A. HOWEY licans, +17% with independents and +3 with Democrats. INDIANAPOLIS — With a $7 million money advan- tage, Gov. Eric Holcomb became the first candidate to file Congress ballot signatures. “Indiana is on a roll and we’re not taking our 1st CD: Reardon picks up Latino backing foot off the gas,” Holcomb said early Tuesday morning, The Latino Victory Fund announced the endorse- when he was greeted by Sec- ment of State Rep. Mara Candelaria Reardon, who made retary of State Connie Lawson. history in 2006, when she became the first Latina elected “While the names on the ballot to the Indiana General Assembly. If elected, Candelaria will be Suzanne’s and mine, we’re Reardon will make history once more and become the first representing a statewide team Latino/a elected to Congress from Indiana. Latino Victory that is mobilized, energized and Fund Executive Director Mayra Macías said, “Mara Cande- organized for victory in Indiana. laria Reardon is a formidable legislator who has devoted Teamwork will bring home the checkered flag on Election her life to public service. Candelaria Reardon’s family has a Day and teamwork will ensure we’re putting people first history of breaking barriers and serving their communities. for four more years.” Her father, Isabelino Candelaria, was the first Puerto Rican The key question is how are the governor’s po- appointed to a city council in Indiana and her mother tential challengers are doing on the signature front. WIBC is Victoria Soto, the first Latina elected president of the reported that Noblesville Republican Brian Roth was “clos- Indiana Federation of Teachers. We are thrilled to stand ing in” on getting the 4,500 signatures needed by Feb. 7 by Candelaria Reardon’s side as she continues to blaze the to qualify for the ballot. trail for future Latino leaders in Indi- The campaigns ana.” of Democrats Woody Myers and Josh Owens Mrvan files both told Howey Politics North Township Trustee Frank Mr- Indiana that they will van filed for office, joining Scott Costel- qualify by the Feb. 7 lo, Antonio (Tony) Daggett Sr., John deadline. “We are on Henry Hall, Hammond Mayor Thomas pace to submit the peti- M. McDermott Jr. and Reardon. Two tion signatures by the political novices are joining the increas- end of the month,” said ingly crowded field of candidates seek- Kate Shepherd, spokes- ing to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Pete woman for Dr. Myers. Visclosky, D-Gary, in Congress (Carden, Owens campaign NWI Times). Costello is a behavioral spokeswoman Cheryl Secretary of State Connie Lawson greets Gov. Eric health director at a local hospital. If Reed told HPI that the Holcomb and First Lady Janet Holcomb as he filed his elected, his agenda includes enacting a campaign is working on reelection ballot signatures on Tuesday. $15 per hour minimum wage, Medicare filing its ballot signa- for All, college debt forgiveness, free tures. “We’re actively submitting to counties, excited by public education through college and sustainable energy our progress and expect to have an announcement soon,” policies. He describes himself as a working-class candidate Reed told HPI. fighting for the working class. As such, he’s forgoing cam- Owens reacted to Gov. Holcomb’s filing, saying, paign donations from corporations or related interests. “We got into this race because we believe Indiana needs bold leadership and fresh ideas. As we travel the state, we’re hearing that Hoosiers agree with us that our teach- 2nd CD: Walorski posts $360K ers need and deserve support now, not later and that we U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski filed for reelection on need to do more than simply maintain a status quo when Tuesday. She also posted a personal record $360,000 on it comes to the environment and ensuring that Indiana is her fourth quarter FEC report. “As a lifelong Hoosier, I’m a state that welcomes all. We don’t just need more jobs, grateful to be able to fight for the hardworking people of Page 8

Indiana’s 2nd District,” Walorski said. “Politicians in Wash- campaign for Congress and know she’ll be a huge asset as ington are trying to divide the country with a radical agen- the City of Lawrence’s next U.S. representative.” da and a partisan impeachment charade, but I’m staying focused on what really matters. That’s why I’m committed 8th CD: No ‘cakewalk’ for Bucshon to working with President Trump to build on our nation’s Any Democrat nominee would seem destined to economic momentum, keep our country safe, fight for our face the same uphill battle this year against U.S. Rep. veterans, and make sure working families have a chance Larry Bucshon, a loyal Trump supporter, even as the to achieve the American Dream. Hoosiers know I’ll always president undergoes an impeachment trial in the Sen- stand up for our shared values and fight for farmers, ate (Bennett, Terre Haute Tribune-Star). Bucshon voted manufacturers, small businesses, workers, veterans, ser- against the two articles of impeachment approved in the vicemembers, and families across northern Indiana. I look Democratic House, which were submitted last week to forward to talking with my fellow Hoosiers about how we the Senate. Voters in can keep working together to build a brighter future and a the 8th favored Trump stronger America.” Walorski’s campaign raised more than in 2016 by nearly $360,000 during the fourth quarter of 2019 – the most the the same margin as campaign has ever raised in the final quarter of a non- Bucshon’s 2018 victory. election year – bringing total cash on hand to more than Bucshon isn’t presum- $850,000. ing his 2020 race will be a cakewalk victory. 3rd CD: Banks files “He doesn’t want to U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, a two-term incumbent, filed take any election for to run for reelection on Friday (WPTA-TV). During his time granted,” Andrew Han- on Capitol Hill, he’s served on the House Armed Services sen, Bucshon’s cam- Committee, Veteran Affairs Committee, and Education and paign spokesman, said Labor Committee. He issued a statement Friday on the fil- last week. “He doesn’t ing: “Our president is being dragged through a vindictive, automatically assume groundless impeachment trial. Our military is facing down he’s going to be reelected.” As for races beyond 2020, a murderous Iranian theocracy. Our economy is under Hansen said Bucshon is “going to run for 2020 and work assault by an exploitative Chinese regime that rejects the hard to earn the votes of the people of the 8th District, idea of fair trade. Our freedoms are under assault from a and we’ll go from there.” Thomasina Marsili has done a lot growing, radical left wing. I have no doubt that the next of that since October. That’s when she began her cam- two years will be some of the most consequential years in paign as a Democratic candidate for the 8th District seat. recent history. I’ve spent over three years now fighting for Marsili, a 44-year-old small business operator and regis- Hoosier values and interests in a rambunctious Congress. tered EMT from Spencer, filed with the FEC as a candidate I’m proud of my record, and I know what it takes to get last fall, and intends to file with the state this Thursday. things done. I hope northeast Indiana voters give me the She’ll also file current fundraising information with the opportunity to continue partnering with our president and FEC this week. “We’ve traveled nearly 13,500 miles since working to deliver results to northeast Indiana’s business- October,” Marsili said Friday afternoon. es, families, workers and service members.” 9th CD: Powell calls for Zody to resign 5th CD: Mayor endorses Mitchell Rev. Mark J. Powell, who currently serves as a The FEC has yet to post any of the fourth quarter Johnson County Democratic precinct committee member reports from 2019 nor have any of the campaigns released and is a CD candidate, called upon Chairmen John Zody totals. The Republican field that has filed with the secre- and 9th CD’s Adam Dickey to resign their party offices. tary of state’s office includes Andrew Bales, Micah Beck- Powell stated, “My staff received an official letter today with, Allen R. Davidson, Matthew Hook, Danny Nieder- from Mr. Dickey and copied to Mr. Zody stating a Democrat berger and Mark Small. Democrats to file include Christina District meeting was held Wednesday night, Jan. 15, 2020. Hale, Dee Thornton and Jennifer Christie. This gathering was held without my knowledge or ability Republican Indiana Treasurer Kelly Mitchell an- to share my perspective. The result was a unanimous vote nounced that Lawrence Mayor Steve Collier has endorsed which disavowed my candidacy. That means as a United her campaign for Congress. Steve Collier commented, States congressional candidate of a major political party, I “Strong partnerships between city, state, and federal will not be able to participate in party functions or forums, government is critical to ensuring we provide the best pos- receive party resources or utilize party services.” Powell sible value to taxpayers. Local governments across Indiana continued, “‘My behavior’ is to tell you violent elements of have seen the benefit of having Kelly Mitchell as a partner the Socialist Anarchist Antifa movement are in the party in the treasurer’s office. I’m thrilled to endorse Kelly’s and you disavow my congressional campaign? A select few party manipulators will not dissuade my gaining support Page 9 nor my efforts ahead.” school board, and championing proposals that help bring more high-paying jobs to District 35,” Rowray said in a Statewides news release.

Holcomb not backing AG candidate HD58: Rep. Burton to retire; Davis files Gov. Eric Holcomb isn’t yet throwing his support Educator and small business owner Michelle Davis behind a top official of his administration in challenging the announced her candidacy today to seek the Republican state attorney general who is awaiting the outcome from HD58 nomination. The seat is held by retiring State Rep. an investigation into allegations of drunkenly groping four Woody Burton. “Citizens of House District 58 are deserving women (AP). Holcomb filed paperwork Tuesday for the of an effective and conservative representative, someone Republican nomination seeking a second term in the 2020 who can build connections and strengthen the community. election but said afterward it was “all premature” to say District 58 needs a leader who will listen, be responsive whether he would endorse a challenger to embattled Re- and work diligently to collaborate with various community publican Attorney General Curtis Hill. Adam Krupp formally partners to continue to make District 58 a great place to announced last week he would resign as state revenue live, work and raise a family,” said Davis. She is a licensed commissioner to challenge Hill for the attorney general Indiana teacher and the director of adult education at Cen- nomination. tral Nine Career Center, who works with employee partners to upskill existing employees as well as provide industry- General Assembly recognized certifications for underemployed community members. Davis said she is committed to education and 3 more House rematches take shape developing the workforce to meet the demands of Hoosier Three more General Assembly rematches have employers. taken shape in primary filings with the Indiana secretary of state’s office. In HD19, former Republican Julie Olthoff HD75: Rep. Bacon to retire; Martin enters has filed. She was defeated by State Rep. Lisa Beck 50.5% Newburgh attorney Rick Martin announced Tues- to 49.5% in 2018. Democrat Aimee Rivera Cole has filed in day that he will run for HD75, which encompasses most of HD37, seeking a rematch with Speaker-elect Todd Huston, Warrick, southern Pike, and southwestern Spencer coun- who defeated her 54.5% to 45.5% in 2018. Democrat ties. While Martin is no stranger to Mark Hinton has filed, seeking a rematch with State Rep. politics, having served as GOP chair for Gerald Torr. Hinton will face Ashley Klein in the HD39 the 8th Congressional District and War- Democratic primary. Torr defeated Hinton in 2018, 57% to rick County, this is the first time that 43%. he has run for elected office. Martin’s announcement comes on the heels of HD26: Rep. Campbell seeks reelection current Rep. Ron Bacon’s announce- State Rep. Chris Campbell launched her reelection ment on Jan. 10 that he would not campaign on Sunday at the Democrat Headquarters in La- seek reelection. “Ron has done an ex- fayette (WLFI-TV). In the past year Campbell has worked cellent job representing the citizens of on 13 bills. Among many of those bills were issues like District 75 for the past 10 years. He has been thoughtful in seat belts on school buses, exotic or dangerous wild ani- the legislation that he has proposed and voted for and has mals and paid family medical leave. If reelected Campbell always been responsive to the needs of his constituents. I hopes to target mental illness, teacher wages and more. am excited about the upcoming campaign and, if elected, “I think it’s so important that people vote. Your vote is look forward to serving the people of Warrick, Pike and your voice and I want to be their voice in the statehouse,” Spencer counties at the Statehouse next year,” Martin said. said Campbell. At this time no one has filed to run against Campbell. Pfesidential 2020

HD35: Rowray to challenge Rep. Wright NH senator endorses Buttigieg Another Delaware County Republican running for State Senator Martha Hennessey (Hanover) an- a seat in the Legislature is making education a top priority nounced her endorsement of Pete Buttigieg, citing his abil- (Slabaugh, Muncie Star Press). Elizabeth Rowray, a school ity to defeat Donald Trump and heal a divided nation. Sen. board member in Yorktown, has filed her candidacy for the Hennessey is the first New Hampshire state senator to GOP nomination for state representative in House District endorse Buttigieg. She had previously endorsed Sen. Cory 35. The incumbent, Melanie Wright, D-Yorktown, who is Booker. “Pete Buttigieg’s values, honesty, temperament, a school teacher, is seeking reelection. “As a state repre- and intelligence make him the best candidate to turn the sentative, I will focus on directing more education dollars page on the Trump era and restore dignity and respect to into our classrooms like I have done while on the Yorktown the White House,” said Sen. Hennessey. v Page 10

2015. That is happening as utilities are shifting to cleaner, cheaper sources of fuel to generate electricity, including Medical transparency natural gas and renewables such as wind and power. bills advance Panel passes hands free driving bill Howey Politics Indiana Legislation that would prohibit individuals from INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana lawmakers on Wednes- holding a cell phone while driving has passed its first day moved forward several pieces of legislation aimed hurdle in the Indiana General Assembly (Erdody, IBJ). The at lowering health care costs and providing more price House Roads and Transportation Committee passed House transparency for patients (Erdody, IBJ). The measures Bill 1070, authored by Rep. Holli Sullivan, R-Evansville, are largely focused on ending surprise billing for patients, unanimously Wednesday morning. The committee listened creating an all-payer claims da- to about two hours of testimony, with many of the speak- tabase and requiring health care ers telling personal stories of car crashes that involved a providers to give patients costs driver being distracted by a mobile device. No one spoke estimates in advance. against the hands-free driving measure, which is a leg- House Bill 1004, authored by Rep. islative priority for Gov. Eric Holcomb. Rep. Jim Pressel, Ben Smaltz, R-Auburn, would R-Rolling Prairie, who is a co-author of the bill, said the prohibit a medical provider from intent is to stop drivers from holding their phones in their charging a patient more than his or her in-network rate hands. “Your cell phone cannot be in your hand as long if the facility where the procedure took place was in- as the vehicle is in motion and you are the driver of that network. The goal of the bill is to prevent a patient from vehicle,” Pressel said. “And that’s really all it does.” receiving a surprise bill for an out-of-network provider who practices at an in-network facility, but it might not apply ‘In God We Trust’ bill advances to individuals covered by self-funded plans because those Public schools across Indiana apparently will not are regulated by the federal government. Health insur- be forced to emblazon the phrase “In God We Trust” on ance experts estimate 43% of Hoosiers are on self-funded the walls of every classroom and library (Carden, NWI plans. The legislation also offers an exception, allowing Times).The Republican-controlled Senate Education Com- health care providers to charge the out-of-network rate mittee on Wednesday replaced the proposed unfunded if the patient is notified of the potential cost at least five mandate in Senate Bill 131 with language giving schools days in advance of the procedure and agrees to it in writ- the option to display in classrooms a poster with “In God ing. The House Insurance Committee passed the bill 12-0. We Trust” and representations of the U.S. and Indiana It heads to the full House for consideration. Similar legisla- flags. Existing state law already authorizes a principal or tion passed out of the Senate Health and Provider Services teacher to post the national motto in school buildings and Committee on Wednesday by an 11-0 vote. classrooms. Schools receiving state funds also already are required to fly the Indiana flag in a prominent place. Coal-fired power plant bill advances Nevertheless, state Sen. Dennis Kruse, R-Auburn, the A bill that would prevent Indiana utilities from sponsor of the measure, asked the committee to approve shutting down coal-fired power plants without state per- the revised proposal, signaling that he may try to restore mission was approved by a House panel on Wednesday, the mandate at another step in the legislative process. The despite widespread opposition from business, environmen- panel ultimately voted 9-2 to send the legislation to the tal, utility, ratepayer and social justice groups (Russell, full Senate. IBJ). The Republican-controlled House Utilities Committee voted 9-4, along party lines, in favor of House Bill 1414, Bill would give RDA non-profit ability which would prohibit utilities from shutting down plants The Northwest Indiana Regional Development without approval from state regulators. Coal accounts for Authority will have the power to create a subsidiary more than 60% of the state’s electricity generation, but agency that it hopes will enhance its ability to encour- several large Indiana utilities are planning to shut down age development around commuter rail stations, if a bill thousands of megawatts of coal-fired generating capac- approved Wednesday in Indianapolis by the Government ity in favor of cleaner or cheaper fuel sources in coming and Regulatory Reform Committee becomes law (NWI years. The bill’s sponsor Rep. Ed Soliday, R-Valparaiso, said Times). House Bill 1279, authored by state Rep. Ed Soli- coal mines around the nation are closing at an alarming day, R-Valparaiso, would give the RDA authority to create rate, putting the reliability and stability of the electricity a “nonprofit entity” that could “solicit and accept private or sector in question. In 2010, Indiana had 26 active coal- public funding” to help carry out the RDA’s mission to spur burning power units. By 2016, it had just 13. U.S. coal projects in the Transit Development Districts being created consumption is now at its lowest point in 40 years, and at in anticipation of the Northern Indiana Commuter Trans- least six major coal companies have gone bankrupt since portation District’s Double Track and West Lake Corridor. v Page 11

reach even 4 or 5 percentage points in polls. Well and In Iowa, a percentage good. The field was too big, including some with no chance and others who blew any chance with miserable campaign performances. But a one-point difference in a point means a lot poll or even a three-point lead in a poll with a 3.7 margin By JACK COLWELL for error is not a solid indication of where the candidates SOUTH BEND — What a difference a point will be when Iowa Democratic caucus goers finally have makes, even when it shouldn’t. In football, a last-second their say. field goal by a team that was trailing by two points makes Polling for the caucuses also is more difficult than a difference – from defeat to a one-point victory. That it is for a traditional election in which voters go to polls to one point does and should make a difference. But let’s cast their ballots. Voters go to the caucuses with aware- look at another type of ness that they may need to negotiate, may need to vote contest, the one for presi- more than once and that there is nothing secret about dent of the United States. their choices. A recent poll in If a candidate doesn’t get 15% in a head count Iowa on support for Demo- at one of the caucuses, that candidate is out and the can- cratic presidential candi- didate’s supporters then can go over to one of the front- dates in that state’s Feb. runners in a next round. There then is negotiating. For 3 caucuses, first test with example, if Amy Klobuchar gets only 10% at a caucus site, voters in the nomination her supporters then would be wooed by backers of those process, showed interest- reaching or exceeding the 15% threshold. They would ing but not precise stand- hear pleas like: ings. Bernie Sanders “won” n “Come over to Pete’s side. You agree more with in the poll, a respected him than with Bernie or Elizabeth.” poll conducted for the Des n “Get over here to count for Joe. He’s got the Moines Register and CNN. best chance to beat Trump.” Sanders, with 20%, was n “Hey, you know you should now support Eliza- three points ahead of Elizabeth Warren, at 17%. She was beth.” one point ahead of Pete Buttigieg, at 16%. Pete was one n “Just look at us in Bernie’s group. We’re young. point ahead of Joe Biden, who had 15%. We’re the future.” What does it mean? Well, a New York Times There’s no accurate way to poll how persuasive headline proclaimed: “In New negotiators would be or to find what last-minute deals will Poll, Sanders Surges Ahead be made among candidates of Democratic Rivals in Iowa.” for second-choice or third- Analysts on cable TV excitedly choice selections in additional analyzed the one-point differ- rounds. ences between the other top When the statewide contenders. results are in, as with the But what does it final score of a football game, really mean? The poll, though one point then can make a a good one, has a statistical difference, between winning margin for error of plus or mi- or losing or between going nus 3.7 percentage points. So, on with a strong second place one point doesn’t mean that or being written off as a poor much when any total could third. A victory by even less be 3.7 points too high or too than a point could propel low. The poll really shows that a candidate on to a better the race is too close to call. A chance in New Hampshire close race also was shown in a and on to the nomination. v CBS poll in which Biden, Butti- gieg and Sanders were tied for Jack Colwell is a col- first, each with the exact same umnist for The Tribune. percentage. Write to him in care of Polls mean a lot. The Tribune or by email at Candidates once thought to [email protected]. be top-tier prospects have dropped out after failing to Page 12

some remarkable intellects among our presidents, people like Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack How presidents get Obama, who were able to take in vast amounts of information and advice, understand it quickly, and sort through their information it effectively. By LEE HAMILTON Presidents and other policy makers pay attention BLOOMINGTON — Here’s a basic truth about peo- to the news, of course. Many of them have several televi- ple who make decisions on public policy: they rarely have sion sets in their offices, so that they can keep track both all the facts they want. Over the of the news of the day and how it’s covered. They follow years, I’ve sat in countless meet- the media pundits, who articulate the facts and present ings in which, after we’d reached them from their own slant, because many of these men a sticking point, someone said in and women have vast audiences and it’s important to exasperation, “Well, what are the know what they’re telling their followers. Social media and facts?” We’d all look around the online commentary are at a more bewildering and less de- room because, no matter how veloped stage, but there’s no question they can affect the much information was already on thinking of millions of Americans. Not surprisingly, presi- the table, a key fact that would dents differ on how systematically and thoroughly they do help us move forward was miss- this fact-gathering, but generally they seek out sources of ing. Yet policy has to get made information with different perspectives and biases. anyway. Presidents and members of Congress also rely No one is confronted on academics and think tanks: Places like the Brookings more often with this conundrum Institution, the Rand Corporation, the American Enterprise than the president of the United States, though members Institute and the Heritage Foundation — though which of Congress can come close. The challenge is that pur- they listen to depends on their ideology. All, however, are ported facts are dynamic — they keep changing. Additional in the game and strive hard to be presidential advisers. facts come to light. Others are found to be wrong. Some Most presidents, at least since the economist Walter Heller are clearly reliable, others dubious. Some plain facts are became a confidant of John F. Kennedy, have paid espe- highly controversial, while other “settled” facts are over- cially close attention to economists they trust. turned by time. And regardless, they come at high-level Faith leaders are also an important source of policy makers quickly, relentlessly, from all directions, and information and advice. Like well-known pundits, many from all kinds of sources. of them have significant influence among Americans on So how do presidents and others sort through questions of values, and presidents will often call several all this? They get a lot of information, of course, by together, often privately, to gather their insights. consulting with experts. Every president forms a cadre This whole process, of course, has immense value of men and women he relies on — sometimes limited in — you don’t want a president to make decisions based on number, sometimes quite extensive. In the chances I’ve false information. It goes on constantly behind the scenes, had to observe these people at work, I’ve been impressed often for weeks before we ordinary citizens hear the by how thoughtful, well-articulated, and solid the advice first presidential peep on a given subject. But I’d argue presidents receive usually is. Then, of course, there are it’s also getting more difficult as sources of reliable and the more formal sources of information, such as the Joint unreliable information multiply. That’s why, in the end, it is Chiefs, members of the Cabinet, so vital for a president to and the President’s Daily Brief, be able to rely on advisers which reviews the information, and professionals who can data, and intelligence rounded help the president sort out up by the CIA from all of the what’s true and what’s not. American security and surveil- v lance agencies. Presidents have a lot Lee Hamilton is a of memos prepared for them, Senior Advisor for the though not all read them. To be Indiana University sure, they need the information Center on Representa- to be condensed. They don’t tive Government Public have the time, patience, or and Environmental Af- inclination to delve deeply into fairs. He was a member a topic. Most policy makers are of the U.S. House of good listeners, able to absorb Representatives for 34 information quickly. We’ve had years. Page 13

We also tax most candy, but not candy that has flour in it. There’s a bill in the Indiana House to exempt Enjoying the feminine hygiene products from the sales tax. It’s a swell idea that has been rejected by legislators in the past. But, Indiana sales tax what about male hygiene? Are males so blessed by Mother Nature, that our hygiene should be neglected? It’s time By MORTON MARCUS for old men wearing diapers to rally at the Statehouse and INDIANAPOLIS — One night recently, in a mo- demand a sales tax exemption for our Depends! v ment of unusual calm, I sat down to read the 2019 Annual Report of the Indiana Department of Revenue. It’s hand- Mr. Marcus is an economist. Reach him at mortonj- somely produced. Lots of pictures with employees say- [email protected]. ing “cheese.” Far too short on meaningful data, as far as I’m concerned, but loaded with numbers only administrators could love. However, I was able to figure out that Indiana personal income taxes (state and local) Hospital monopolies amounted to $8.9 billion and accounted for 42% of the state’s are urgent concern $21 billion in revenue in fiscal 2019 (July 2018 to June 2019). By MICHAEL HICKS Add to that sum $8.1 billion in INDIANAPOLIS — Since the end of the Great sales taxes collected and you have Recession, more than a quarter of economic growth in households paying 81% of the Revenue Department’s col- Indiana has been swallowed by ballooning healthcare cost lections. growth. Our healthcare spending is a clear national outlier, This, of course, doesn’t count gambling, motor ranking only behind Alaska. Since the end of the Great fuel, and other taxes passed along to customers by the Recession, increased healthcare businesses building taxes into their prices. The direct tax costs absorbed a stunning one- on corporate income is a spectacular 4.7% of total tax col- third of growth in Hoosier family lections. incomes. For about half of Indi- Stimulated by all these jolly numbers, I licked my ana families, just the extra cost chops and dove into the exciting tales of sales taxes. Did of healthcare monopoly prices is you know, I didn’t, Indiana is tied for second place behind more than their combined prop- only California’s 7.25% state sales tax? That’s correct, erty and income taxes. we’re at 7%, right in there with Mississippi, Rhode Island One effect of this is that and Tennessee. for a decade, Indiana’s economy But wait. That California 7.25% figure includes a grew at only half the pace of the 1% statewide tax collected by the state and distributed to nation as a whole. Healthcare local governments. Utah and Virginia also have these add- cost growth is a top three lead- on state/local sales taxes. That makes Indiana’s 7% the ing cause of our dismal economic recovery, and a drag on highest exclusively state sales tax in the nation. Hoosier families and businesses. Please note many states allow localities to add Of course, higher healthcare costs have helped their own sales taxes. Illinois, that nexus of fiscal follies, one part of our economy. The most profitable industry in has a maximum local sales tax of 4.75% and, therefore, Indiana is the not-for-profit healthcare sector. For example, a potential for a total sales tax of 11%. Tennessee has an one well-known not-for-profit network in the state earned average local add-on sales tax of 2.469%, which puts its $25,000 in profit per employee in 2019. That’ll be about a average sales tax up to nearly 9.5%, currently the highest billion dollars in 2019, even after their generous $500 per in the nation. worker year-end bonus. Indiana does not have local add-on sales taxes, The healthcare lobby wants you to believe that except where it deems Marion County as sufficiently ma- they are so profitable because Hoosiers are much less ture to impose such taxes for sports facilities. And we do healthy than other Americans. That is condescending and have accommodation and rental car taxes, but those are pompous nonsense. While there’s plenty of need for better only to fleece visitors. health among our state’s population, the cost problem in However, state sales taxes offer more fun than Indiana healthcare is due primarily to monopoly pricing just their rates. What is and what is not taxed? Indiana among our state’s large not-for-profit networks. exempts sales of gold and silver bullion from the sales tax. Thankfully, the General Assembly is taking action Page 14 and there are several bills designed to weaken the monop- come to pass this year. Still, that won’t be enough to shield oly power of hospitals. While these bills are nowhere near Indiana from painful national scrutiny over the monopoliza- enough to remedy the problem, the most promising is a tion of its healthcare markets. As one political consultant bill requiring broad healthcare price transparency. This leg- told me, it would be political malpractice to ignore Indiana’s islation would require every transaction, from every medi- healthcare cost crisis in the midst of a national election. To cal facility to be reported to an independent contractor put this in context, the New York Times has been far more who will report prices online for all the world to see. The aggressive about reporting Indiana hospital monopolies law would also end gag rules that prevent price informa- than any media outlet in the state. tion from making it to consumers, businesses, insurance Perhaps the most interesting legislation of the companies and competitors. session involves “surprise billing.” For those of you who Monopoly hospital systems tremble at the prospect don’t know, surprise billing is what often happens on vaca- of this. The very basis of their ability to create and sus- tion. Many of you have experienced taking a kid to a local tain their monopolies comes from withholding competitive clinic away from your local hospital for something routine, pricing information from the people who pay medical bills: like an ear infection only to be billed the equivalent of a Insurers, businesses and families. They are also worried year of car payments. Two proposed bills would cap the about another part of this bill that would require non-profit price a provider can charge in such “out of network” cases. hospital boards to hold semi-annual public meetings to This bill offers plain, old-fashioned price controls. discuss rising cost. This is a stunning, if unwitting, admission that the current This bill is not a panacea. Few of us consumers efforts to deliver reasonable market-based healthcare in will be able to pick and choose our healthcare according Indiana have failed miserably. Of course, the hospital lobby to price. What the price transparency bill will accomplish, opposes the heart of this bill. That is a cynical and myopic is to pull back the veil of ignorance about pricing that view of a very real healthcare problem that will worsen in Indiana’s hospital monopolies have exploited over the past the years to come. v two decades. The bill also helps remind somnolent not- for-profit hospital board members about their obligations Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Center under the state’s non-profit law. It will also force them to for Business and Economic Research and the George answer questions in the communities in which they live. and Frances Ball distinguished professor of econom- Of course, this bill has not passed, and hospital ics in the Miller College of Business at Ball State lobbyists are busy trying to weaken it to the point of ir- University. relevancy. It remains to be seen if this much first step will

presided over steep losses, The White House’s while fellow one- termer George down ballot blues H.W. Bush saw By LOUIS JACOBSON only small gains CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – On Monday, President in the House and Donald Trump began his fourth year in office. His presi- in state legisla- dency has been unique in many ways, but he’s been like tures. other presidents in at least one respect: His party has “The generally lost ground down the ballot since he took office. surest price the In recent decades, presidents have typically seen winning party will an erosion of their party’s seats in the U.S. Senate, U.S. pay is defeat of hundreds of their most promising candi- House, the gover- dates and officeholders for Senate, House, governorships, norships, and the and state legislative posts,” this newsletter’s editor, state legislatures. Larry J. Sabato, wrote in 2014. “Every eight- In fact, to one year presidency has emptied the benches for the degree or an- triumphant party, and recently it has gotten even other, every post- worse.” World War II two-term president has bled seats in these The Crystal Ball last looked at this phenomenon categories, and so have the two-term, same-party combi- after the 2016 election, when we noted the massive scale nations of John F. Kennedy-Lyndon B. Johnson and Richard of down-ballot losses under President Barack Obama. Nixon-Gerald Ford. One-term president Jimmy Carter also Here, we update the figures to reflect Trump, using the same methodology. Page 15 The pattern under Trump is clear: hard: Only once since World War II has In just three years, Trump is presid- one party won three consecutive presi- ing over down-ballot seat erosion for dential elections -- the Republicans from Republicans that, in some categories, is 1980 to 1988, when Ronald Reagan won approaching the scale of what his recent twice and his vice president, George H.W. predecessors experienced over a full Bush, succeeded him. eight years. As I speculated in Governing Let’s take a look at the numbers. in 2014, “Presidents try to accomplish In the Senate, Trump was fortu- things, but not everyone likes what they nate in 2018 to have a highly favorable do. Even if they have support from the map for Republicans -- this enabled him majority of voters, it’s always easier for to survive his first midterm election with critics — even if they’re in the minority a net gain of one Senate seat. -— to block major initiatives than it is for Beyond that, though, Trump’s supporters to pass them. Once a presi- down-ballot losses have mirrored those dent’s agenda has been blocked, their of his predecessors, especially his most supporters grow disappointed, joining recent ones. Here’s a comparison of critics in their unhappiness. The presi- Trump’s down-ballot losses to those dent’s overall approval ratings sag, and under President Bill Clinton, President voters take out their anger on whichever George W. Bush, and President Barack party that controls the White House.” Obama: Exacerbating this is the ten- Beyond the unusual results in the dency for presidents to accumulate Senate -- where Trump’s party is actu- popularity-sapping scandals the longer ally up a seat so far -- Trump’s three-year they stay in office, from Nixon’s Water- losses for the other offices are quite close gate to Reagan’s Iran-Contra to Clinton’s to those experienced over eight years by Monica Lewinsky. Not only do such scan- the younger Bush, the only other Repub- dals sour voters on the president’s party, lican in this chart. but presidents who are fighting for their Losses under the recent Demo- own political standing don’t have a lot of crats -- Clinton, and especially Obama -- political capital to share with those from have mostly been larger than those under their party who serve at lower levels. By Bush. becoming the first postwar president to One explanation could be that face impeachment in his first term, Trump the Democrats experienced a wholesale has reached this stage at hyper speed. loss of seats in an entire region -- the It’s important to note that it’s South -- that is unlikely to swing back any premature to say how punishing Trump’s time soon. By contrast, suburban losses down-ballot losses will be by the time he for Republicans, a comparable seismic leaves office. For starters, Trump may event for the GOP, only really acceler- not win reelection, which would keep him ated beginning in 2016, meaning they from reaching the two-term threshold, could snowball the same way in the years and the usual presidential down-ballot ahead. penalty would transfer to the Democrats. Another explanation could be In addition, it’s unclear how much of a that voters in midterm elections tend to positive coattail effect Trump will have on be older, whiter, and more conservative, fellow Republican candidates in 2020; a which would give Republicans some pro- president’s party typically fares better in tection from midterm headwinds. down-ballot races when the president is Why do presidents suffer on the ballot themselves. down-ballot losses so consistently? The Still, it’s fair to say that while biggest factor is likely the public’s fa- Trump took an unconventional path to tigue with the president’s party and the the White House, he’s looking very much policy decisions it has made. With only a like his predecessors in presiding over small number of exceptions, voters have difficulties down the ballot. The White regularly punished the president’s party House is very much worth winning, but in midterm elections, seemingly register- generally speaking, there are conse- ing their displeasure with the status quo. quences for holding it. v Indeed, staying comfortably in power is Page 16

Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal: Impeach- of his political action committee, Team Holcomb, by the ment is moving forward and going nowhere. There is new Indiana Republican Party Businessman Josh Owens raised information but it doesn’t really tell those who’ve paid less than $84,000, and spent about $68,000, leaving him attention anything they didn’t know. Putative administra- only about $16,000. At least he doesn’t owe any money. tion operative Lev Parnas said on “The Rachel Democrats have pulled out some surprise victories be- Maddow Show” Wednesday that the president fore, but never against such steep odds in a high knew everything about efforts to lean on Ukraine. profile race like that for governor. And, yes, they But this was clear in testimony throughout the likely will make some gains in legislative seats, impeachment hearings. His own ambassador to especially in the House where they just need one the European Union said it! The ambassador to more district to be out of the purgatory of super- Ukraine knew she was being schemed against, minority status. But they will need a national blue lost her job because of it, and spelled it out under oath. wave to help them, and right now that shows no signs of It’s icing on a cake that’s already sagging. The president even getting Holcomb’s shoes wet, much less submerging will be acquitted for a host of reasons, from partisanship him. v to a prudential judgment that his actions don’t warrant removal with a presidential election 10 months away. What Robert Zoellnick, Wall Street Journal: Histori- did Speaker Nancy Pelosi gain by playing her monthlong ans will puzzle over this turn of events: A Republican U.S. game of peekaboo, waiting to send the charges to the president endorses central planning for trade, while a com- Senate? She withheld from Majority Leader Mitch McCon- munist government in China cautions, in its trade deal with nell papers he didn’t wish to receive and she saw that as the U.S., that international commerce must reflect “market leverage? It appears she was playing for time as investiga- conditions.” The American president boasts about raising tors tried to develop more evidence. But again, for what? import taxes on Americans and restricting immigration, The president couldn’t look more guilty. v while the Chinese lower trade barriers, encourage foreign investment and rely more on open-source software. Mary Beth Schneider, Statehouse File: One The administration’s “phase one” deal with China com- of my favorite songs by Mary Chapin Carpenter notes: mits the government in Beijing to prescribe amounts of “The stars might lie, but the numbers never do.” Demo- purchases of U.S. agricultural and manufacturing goods, crats hoping to win back the governor’s office after having which only magnifies the Communist Party’s role in the been shut out since 2004 may tell themselves that some- economy. The deal permits each side to use its own sta- how, some way, the stars will align and voters will decide tistics, so China will likely “meet” some quotas by reclas- they’re ready for a change. But the numbers tell me that, sifying U.S. exports to Hong Kong that middlemen sell to at least so far, they’re dreaming. In campaign finance the mainland. Beijing will redirect commodity purchases— reports filed Wednesday, Republican Gov. Eric Holcomb — fuels, food, chemicals—but other importers will shift from this time seeking election not as an unknown but with a U.S. producers to third countries. Mr. Trump is paying record of accomplishments — reported raising nearly $2 a price to manipulate the bilateral trade balance, and it million between July 1 and Dec. 31 of last year. He spent won’t affect America’s overall trade deficit. The numbers about $770,000 and, combined with funds he had raised will likely conflict, leading to more fights — after the elec- earlier, starts this election year with about $7.25 million in tion. Mr. Trump’s protectionism is certainly expensive. His campaign funds. In the last six months alone, he’s pulled new tariffs will cover almost two-thirds of U.S. imports in about $150,000 from corporations and — unusual for from China, with an average tax of almost 20%, compared a Republican — $20,000 from labor unions. The three with 3% before. China’s retaliatory tariffs hit almost 60% Democrats who have been seeking to challenge Holcomb of U.S. exports, with an average rate of 20.5%, up from have, by comparison, pocket change. Dr. Woody Myers, 8% before the current administration. And remember Mr. the former state health commissioner, reported raising Trump has had to pay about $25 billion to compensate $180,000, but spent about $178,000. His cash-on-hand? farmers hurt by his trade war. Farmers suffered a 24% $1,886.15. Most of us have more than that in our checking surge in bankruptcies in 2019, and the U.S. lost about a accounts. Myers’ numbers look even worse when you see percentage point of growth (another $200 billion), accord- that his campaign owes him about $62,400 to repay loans ing to a Federal Reserve study. The president’s China tally he’s made to himself. And much of his money came from is part of his belief in command economics for trade and people who can’t even vote for him. About two of every investment. New administration directives are also adding three checks that came in for Myers came from out-of- controls on exports, supply chains and foreign investment. state residents. Myers said he made a “conscious decision Mr. Trump personally badgers companies not to invest not to solicit donations from larger Indiana donors” until abroad when he is displeased. The U.S. needs security after the November 2019 elections. In contrast, about checks, but he has wielded national security indiscrimi- 80% of Holcomb’s individual contributors live in Indiana, nately as a club to bludgeon allies. Companies will have to according to a tally of Holcomb’s campaign report and that pay political favors to placate regulators. v Page 17

WISH-TV. “The impeachment process by his conviction in the Senate, and Braun says Trump began with Democrats took control removal from office, President Trump’s of the House of Representatives and abuse of his office and obstruction of will be acquitted began talking about impeachment Congress will permanently alter the WASHINGTON — The presi- before there any articulable impeach- balance of power among the branches dent will be acquitted, said Sen. able offenses.” The attorneys gen- of government,” Mr. Schiff said in Mike Braun (R-Ind.), joining senators eral all signed a 14-page document his opening remarks. “The president Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and Steve stating why the Senate must end the has shown that he believes that he’s Daines (R-Montana), for impeachment trial. They include above the law and scornful of con- a brief news conference AGs from South Carolina, Loui- straint.” during a lunch break siana, Utah, Alabama, Alaska, in the impeachment Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Indi- Lake coroner trial of President Trump ana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississip- (Davis, WIBC). “I didn’t pi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, probed over email realize the vitriol that Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, CROWN POINT — The Lake we’ve got in this country. Now being Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. County coroner may have sent a po- here I year, I wonder how we’re gon- litical campaign announcement on the na get through it,” said Braun. “We’re Senators dig in county’s email network in violation of polarized and we should be sinking as testimony begins government policy (NWI Times). Coro- on things like the cots of health care, ner Merrilee Frey said she inadvertent- infrastructure, stabilizing entitle- WASHINGTON — As House ly used her office’s email system Jan. ments.” “It was full of visual aids. It Democrats prepared for a second day 17 to publicize her son’s entry into the was full of regurgitation of information of opening arguments in the impeach- Lake County Democratic primary as we’ve already heard because a lot f ment trial of President Trump, some a candidate for coroner himself. Lake times when your case is weak, you try senators were readying for the long County Prosecutor Bernard Carter to repeat it over and over and wear haul. “We’ve still got a long way to confirmed Wednesday his office is re- the opposition out.” Braun said he will go,” said Sen. Doug Jones (D., Ala.), viewing the matter. Democrats Clayton pay attention to all of the testimony who is up for re-election this year in Frey, Terri McNary and David Pastrick and that his hope is for the trial to be a state Mr. Trump won by almost 30 are running in the May 5 primary to fair and end with a verdict, one which percentage points (Wall Street Jour- succeed Merrilee Frey, who cannot run he believes will mean an acquittal for nal). “I don’t want anybody to think for re-election as coroner because of Trump. “I hope when we’re all through that this is over because you hear one the state’s term limits. this...that we come back together and side. There’s gonna be another side unite on the common elements,” he of this. While most Republicans and Terre Haute may said. When a reporter asked Braun if Democrats have quickly settled into he was ok with the president asking familiar partisan crouches, Sen. John end PD show a foreign leader to investigate a rival Kennedy (R., La.) said some members TERRE HAUTE — Terre Haute and to withhold foreign aid to coerce of the upper chamber are finding Mayor Duke Bennett says he was him, Braun responded, “No, I’m not the presentations edifying. “We’re surprised to learn from media reports saying it’s okay. I’m not saying it’s ap- listening, and we’re learning,” he said. last week the NAACP is asking the city propriate. I’m saying it didn’t happen.” “Those of you who have sat through a to stop the city’s contract with A&E’s trial before know that there are peaks ‘Live PD’ TV show (Indiana Public Hill calls for end of and valleys, and a trial is a narrative, Media). The show has been recording impeachment it’s a story. And you’ve got to really episodes following the Terre Haute evaluate the consequences of the police department. A letter from the WASHINGTON — Urging the story.” Invoking the nation’s founders Terre Haute branch of the NAACP says Senate to reject the impeachment and their fears that a self-interested the show exploits residents at their case against President Trump is the leader might subvert democracy for most vulnerable time while conveying goal of 21 attorneys general who were his own personal gain, House Manager guilt prematurely. Bennett says he’s in Washington Wednesday to state Schiff argued that the president’s con- heard mostly all positive feedback their case (WIBC). One of them was duct was precisely what the framers from the show. “We hope that helps Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill, of the Constitution had in mind when with recruiting, it also helps with who said the impeachment trial was they devised the remedy of impeach- transparency so people can see who essentially pre-meditated. “The pro- ment, one he said was “as powerful watch the show can say, wow I didn’t cess itself has demonstrated it’s bee as the evil it was meant to combat” realize these are the things they deal partisan from the beginning,” Hill told (New York Times). “If not remedied with.”