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Technological and Environmental Leapfrogging in China

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Leapfrogging in China's Renewable Electricity Development Pathway? The roles of policy frameworks, innovation and international cooperation partnerships in fostering renewable electricity by Patrick Schroeder A thesis submitted to Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Studies Victoria University of Wellington 2010 1 Abstract The topic of this thesis is China‘s transition to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system based predominantly on renewable electricity supply. The specific focus is the concept of leapfrogging, frequently proposed as an alternative development strategy for China and other large developing countries to bypass the historical energy-intensive and polluting stages of development of the already industrialised countries. The thesis poses the question whether leapfrogging in China‘s renewable electricity sector occurred in the period from 2005 to 2010 and what the future potential for leapfrogging is. The specific technology focus of the thesis is renewable electricity and to some lesser degree renewable energy for heating. In this context five main areas have been looked at in detail: decentralised renewable energy technologies for rural development, innovative capacity and development of China‘s emerging renewable energy companies, application of renewable electricity and electricity saving technologies in China‘s cities, application and use of renewable technologies for large-scale electricity generation and China‘s national energy system as a whole. Two main bodies of theory are used as a conceptual framework to support the analysis: socio- technical innovation systems and global environmental governance with a focus on multi-stakeholder partnerships. This multi-disciplinary approach is applied to identify and analyse the roles of domestic policies, socio-technical innovation and international cooperation partnerships for renewable electricity development. In this context the thesis specifically analyses the effectiveness of China‘s national and local policy frameworks in facilitating transition processes and supporting innovation for renewable electricity development. Furthermore, the contribution of international cooperation initiatives and partnerships to renewable electricity development and leapfrogging is analysed. The research results show that leapfrogging in China‘s renewable electricity development to date has occurred only in some selected cases. Environmental leapfrogging, a reduction of environmental impacts through renewable energies replacing fossil fuels, has not yet occurred. China‘s policy frameworks and national targets have been crucial for fast development of renewable electricity technologies in the period 2005-2010. Further refinements and more ambition would be required to facilitate leapfrogging as national development strategy. China‘s institutional framework for energy governance is still fragmented, which impacts on the effectiveness and implementation of policies. International partnerships for technology transfer, capacity building and policy dialogues are a key element in the transition to an energy system based on renewables and are interlinked with 2 China‘s national innovation system and support policies for renewable electricity. Despite China‘s rapid development of renewable electricity, further cooperation for technology transfer, specifically policy dialogues and capacity building, will be crucial in the future. On a conceptual level, the research shows that the concept and definitions of leapfrogging so far are still very vague and would require further research in order to develop the concept of leapfrogging into an analytical framework and practical guiding principle for developing countries. 3 Acknowledgments In the first place I would like to thank my primary supervisor Ralph Chapman for his tireless support and helpful feedback despite the long distances between Wellington, Beijing and London. I also thank my secondary supervisor Xiaoming Huang for supporting my research in China and arranging my stay as visiting researcher at the China University of Political Science and Law in Beijing during 2008. I am thankful also to Victoria University of Wellington for awarding me the Victoria University Doctoral Assistantship Scholarship which made this research possible financially. Thanks also to the Vrije University of Amsterdam for the invitation to the 2008 summer school on Earth System Governance and to the Tokyo Institute of Technology for my research stay during January 2009 I am extremely grateful to my wife Tina, my family and friends for their ongoing support. Special thanks go to Liz Yeaman who gave me the initial suggestion to do energy research about China, and David Sanders (‗Treefrog‘) for awakening my interest in frogs and their vulnerability to climate change – and indirectly pointing me to the leapfrogging concept. Special thanks to the examiners Prof. Ralph Sims, Dr. Eric Martinot and Dr. Sean Weaver, who provided critical but extremely helpful comments to improve the thesis. Finally, I would like to thank all individuals and organisations who/which have provided me with the important pieces of information enabling me to write this thesis. 4 Table of Contents ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................................................... 2 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................................................................ 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................................. 5 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES ................................................................................................................................ 8 LIST OF ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................. 10 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 12 1.1 RESEARCH TOPIC AND OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................................... 12 1.2 LEAPFROGGING – A POSSIBLE LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR CHINA? ......................................... 14 1.3 CHINA'S RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT - CURRENT STATUS ...................................................................... 17 1.4 RENEWABLE EMERY IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................................... 19 1.5 CURRENT STATUS OF THE UNFCCC PROCESS AND THE ROLE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES................................. 21 1.6 SUPPORT THROUGH INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIPS AND COOPERATION ............................................................ 23 2. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 26 2.1 DATA COLLECTION METHODS.............................................................................................................................. 27 2.2 DATA ANALYSIS METHODS .................................................................................................................................. 32 3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................................... 37 3.1 LEAPFROGGING – A POSSIBLE LOW-CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FOR CHINA? ......................................... 41 Technological leapfrogging in industrial innovation ......................................................................................... 41 3.1.1 ......................................................................................................................................................................... 41 3.1.2 Leapfrogging as national development strategy and policy device .......................................................... 44 3.1.3 Environmental Leapfrogging .................................................................................................................... 46 3.1.4 From concepts to empirical observation: Is leapfrogging happening? .................................................... 50 3.2 INNOVATION THEORIES AND SOCIO-TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ................................................................................... 56 3.2.1 Systems of innovation and technological regimes..................................................................................... 58 3.2.2 Socio-technical systems ............................................................................................................................ 60 3.2.3 Transition management ............................................................................................................................ 69 3.3 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE: PARTNERSHIPS FOR SUSTAINABILITY AND TECHNOLOGY COOPERATION 74 3.3.1 The partnership paradigm ........................................................................................................................ 76 3.3.2 Partnerships for renewable energy technology collaboration .................................................................. 82 3.3.3 Clean energy partnerships and China
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