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FRCC Presentation 3535th AnnualAnnual PURCPURC ConferenceConference The Real Climate Change: Planning & Investing Under Uncertainty Hilton University of Florida Conference Center, Gainesville Natural Gas as a Climate Change Bridge Fuel: Storage, Reliability, and Supply Options Southern Pines Energy Center 28420 Hardy Toll Road North, Suite 125 Spring, TX 77373 (281) 907-6311 x13 AreAre wewe inin thethe eyeeye ofof anan energyenergy storm?storm? The storm is not over! • Supply disruptions? • Extreme weather conditions? • Alternate fuel availability? • Weather sensitive demand! • Declining production? • Increased volatility! • Greater need for deliverability! Industry Comments • The National Petroleum Council states in its report report – The Winter peak demand of North America can average 80+ BCF/D in January with one day peaks exceeding 100 BCF/D. This number continues to get larger. The shoulder month loads average 45 BCF/D. • Most energy data aggregates around US domestic production being 53 BCF/D, LNG imports averaging 2.5 BCF/D, and Canadian imports approximately 4 to 6 BCF/D with the overall demand averaging 60 BCF/D and growing. • S&P’s 03/08/07 report states “The importance of natural gas storage is amplified by the 200 gigawatts of gas-fired electricity generation built in the past decade. These plants have helped natural gas become a “12-month fuel” because gas that was previously destined for storage now has another potential path: summer cooling.” Given the addition of considerable gas-fired electricity generation capacity that came on line, the gas market changed from a conventional seasonal injection and heating based withdrawal season to a market with increasingly complex time- sensitive supply needs. • EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006-”From 2004-2030, 60% of the projected growth in the lower 48 end-use consumption of natural gas occurs east of the Mississippi River. Industry Comments • EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 “The largest amounts of new (additional and currently unplanned) electric generation is expected in the Southeast (FL & SERC). In the SE, electricity demand represents a relatively large share of the US electricity sales and its need for new capacity is greater than in other regions.” • Armando Olivera, FPL, Press Release 6-05-07 “.. Peak gas fired electric generation is at 50% today and is projected to be 70% by 2016”. • FERC SE US Gas Market Overview and Focal Points “FL is the biggest market for gas and accounts for about 30% of the overall regional demand. The power sector comprises more than 80% of FL’s total demand. Overall natural gas storage capacity is the lowest of any region in the US”. • EIA 6-7-7 “Florida produces more petroleum-fired electricity, in absolute terms, than any other state.” • Gas demand, in the US, will continue to grow as higher value gas-fired power generation should continue to displace industrial gas demand-adding more peak weather sensitive load and removing base-load –the result is increasing volatility. • “Existing NG storage will be taxed by needing to provide LNG with the means to manage and optimize its value by capturing seasonal price arbitrage and serving the growing power market (4, 8, 12, and 16 hours per day Florida Facts • Florida has historically relied on power plant fuel switching capability (above ground oil storage) instead of gas storage to balance natural gas deliverability and demand. • Florida’s increasing reliance (environmental and economic reasons) on natural gas for power generation has reduced the ability to rely on interruptions of power plant gas use. • Florida’s increasing reliance on natural gas for power generation has made Florida more sensitive and vulnerable to commodity price volatility and supply disruptions. • Six years ago 19% of generation was from natural gas, 37% today, FRCC forecast (from 10 year site plans) is for 50% within five years. Today 50% of Summer peak demand is met with natural gas generation. New Florida Supply Sources • Southeast Supply Header – new 270-mile 42” and 36” pipeline from Perryville, LA to Gulfstream in AL. Jointly owned by Spectra and CenterPoint. • Boardwalk Pipeline Partners – East Texas to Mississippi Expansion. 242 miles of 42” pipe from Keatchie, LA to Harrisville, MS. Southeast Expansion Project will then move this gas to West Butler, AL via a new 111 mile 42” pipe that can move up to 1.2 BCF a day. • Mid-Continent Express Pipeline – new 500 mile pipeline (40 miles of 40”, 260 miles of 42” and 200 miles of 36”) from OK and NE Texas to Alabama with capacity of up to 1.8 BCF/d. • Cypress Pipeline (I, II, & III) – moving (LNG) gas into Florida (Jacksonville) from Elba Island, GA (Savannah). 165 miles of 24” and 10 miles of 30” pipe. Will move 500,000 Dth per day into FL when complete. Value Drivers of Storage … changing fundamentals and changing markets • Flexible: 9 Balance the fluctuating and unsynchronized needs of supply / demand 9 React quickly to changing market and weather conditions • Insurance: 9 Insurance / Backstop for supply reduction / failures / Supply Reserve Margin 9 Extremely reliable source of deliverability and “peak day deliverability” • Services: 9 Intra-season, intra-month, intra-week, intra-day 9 Short notice / no-notice balancing, balance 24-hour flow with 16/12/8 hour needs • Manage / Optimize: 9 Transportation and supply portfolio 9 Dispatch / storage / least cost transportation / Manpower Efficiencies-Holidays, Weekends 9 Pipeline pressure / Line pack management / System reliability • Price / risk management: 9 Price protection, responsible risk management, manage energy price volatility 9 Access to a broader market and supply sources (access to multiple pipelines) 9 Pipeline imbalance penalties and punitive cash-out provisions The value drivers for storage projects have increased and shifted from the merchant’s “optionallity model” to a “reliability and balancing premium” i.e Utilities, Pipelines, Producer, Power Gen. and LNG players Natural Gas Storage - Types of Storage • Four types of Natural Gas Storage: 9 Salt cavern 9 Depleted reservoir 9 Aquifer storage 9 Tanks (as liquid) Salt Cavern Depleted Reservoir Aquifer To Gas Pipeline To Gas Pipeline To Gas Pipeline Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas M M M Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Gas Withdrawal Injection Withdrawal Injection Injection Withdrawal Facilities Facilities Facilities Facilities Facilities Facilities Gas Gas Heater Gas Gas Heater Gas Gas Heater Dehydrator Dehydrator Dehydrator Compressors Compressors Pressure Compressors Pressure Pressure Reduction Valve Reduction Valve Reduction Valve Gas Gas Gas Gas Water Wat er Natural Gas Volatility $25 $20 Dt $15 Rate per per Rate $10 $5 $0 1/1/2005 7/1/2005 1/1/2006 7/1/2006 1/1/2007 7/1/2007 1/1/2008 Years FGTZ3 Hub Hurricanes Isadore and Lili Offshore Supply Disruptions (Example Destin Pipeline) 1,000,000 EFFECT OF HURRICANES "ISIDORE AND LILI" Scheduled Gas: ON OFFSHORE PRODUCTION PROFILE 900,000 Petal Storage 800,000 Scheduled Gas: Transco Pipeline Southern Natural Gas 700,000 Tennessee Gas Pipeline 600,000 500,000 Scheduled Gas: MNBtu/day 400,000 Florida Gas Transmission Gulf South Pipeline Gulfstream Pipeline 300,000 DESTIN SUPPLY DISRUPTION FROM 9/24/02 to 10/24/02 200,000 Total Volume: -11.4 Bcf Scheduled Gas: Average Daily Volume: -357 MMcf/d Pascagoula Processing Plant Total Florida Volume: -5.5 Bcf 100,000 Chevron Refinery Average Daily Florida Volume: -172 MMcf/d Plant Daniel 0 02 02 02 20 20 20 2/2002 9/2002 6/ 9/5/2002 1 1 2 8/29/2002 9/ 9/ 9/ 10/3/ 11/7/ 10/10/2002 10/17/2002 10/24/2002 10/31/2002 11/14/2002 11/21/2002 11/28/2002 Source: Destin Pipeline: www.destinpipeline.com 1,200,000 OffshoreHurricanes Supply Disruptions Frances and Ivan 1,000,000 800,000 MMBtu/day600,000 400,000 Destin Pipeline 2005 SGR estimated average flow day 200,000 Production Shut In - Hurricane Destin Pipeline 2003 average flow day (FERC Form 2) - 9/13/2004 Source: Destin Pipeline: www.destinpipeline.com 9/15/2004 (Example Destin Pipeline) Florida Gas Transmission and Gulfstream Natural Gas System ChevronTexaco Pascagoula9/17/200 4Refinery - Plant Daniel Supplied by Chandeleur Pipeline 9/19/2004 9/21/2004 Partial Production Resumed 9/23/2004 9/25/2004 9/27/2004 9/29/2004 10/1/2004 Transco, Sonat and Tennessee Gas Pipeline 10/3/2004 10/5/2004 10/7/2004 10/9/2004 10/11/2004 10/13/2004 1,200,000 OffshoreHurricanes Supply Disruptions Katrina and Rita 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 MMNtu/Day 400,000 Production Shut In - Hurricane Katrina Destin Pipeline 2005 SGR estimated average flow day 200,000 Destin Pipeline 2003 average flow day (FERC Form 2) Supplied by Resor Ridge Facility & 0 8/24/2005 Source: Destin Pipeline: www.destinpipeline.comChandeleur Pipeline 8/26/2005 8/28/2005 Transco, Sonat and Tennessee Gas Pipeline (Example Destin Pipeline) 8/30/2005 Production Shut In - Hurricane Rita 9/1/2005 9/3/2005 Partial Production Resumed 9/5/2005 9/7/2005 9/9/2005 9/11/2005 9/13/2005 1,200,000 9/15/2005 9/17/2005 1,000,000 Florida Gas Transmission9/19/2005 & Gulfstream Natural Gas System 9/21/2005 800,000 9/23/2005 9/25/2005 600,000 9/27/2005 9/29/2005 400,000 10/1/2005 10/3/2005 200,000 10/5/2005 10/7/2005 0 Benefits Incremental Storage Can Provide Florida Energy Consumers • Reliability of Supply • Help manage and reduce price volatility • Lower energy costs through: 9 New and improved gas purchasing strategies 9 Greater utilization of contracted transportation capacity 9 Enhanced flexibility (Florida Gas Transmission & Gulfstream Natural Gas System interconnects) 9 Improved access to a more diverse & reliable supply
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