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FULL COUNCIL - TUESDAY, 15 OCTOBER 2019 Documents being circulated with the County Council agenda Document Report in County Council agenda to which it is related Reconciling Policy, Performance and Resources Cabinet report (July 2019), – Focus on East Sussex (Appendix 1 of the paragraph 1 Cabinet report) (page 3) Reconciling Policy, Performance and Resources Cabinet report (July 2019), – National and Local Policy and Resource paragraph 1 context (Appendix 2 of the Cabinet report) (page 31) Reconciling Policy, Performance and Resources Cabinet report (July 2019), – Core Offer (Appendix 3 of the Cabinet report) paragraph 1 (page 63) Reconciling Policy, Performance and Resources Cabinet report (July 2019), – Medium Term Financial Plan (Appendix 4 of the paragraph 1 Cabinet report) (page 67) Reconciling Policy, Performance and Resources Cabinet report (July 2019), – Capital Programme (Appendix 5 of the Cabinet paragraph 1 report) (page 75) PHILIP BAKER Assistant Chief Executive This page is intentionally left blank Appendix 1 State of the County 2019 Focus on East Sussex Page 3 Agenda Item 6a HastingsRampion Windfarm Seaford State of the County 2019: Contents 2 Population 555,110 Population 2019 3 Housing 251,780 Dwellings in the county 2017 6 Deprivation 19 Small areas in 10% most deprived in England 10 Most Least Health 504,436 Hospital attendances or admissions A & E 11 £ Page 4 Economy 18.2% increase in GVA 2012 to 2017 12 Civil Society Over 60,000 Volunteers 2011 18 S c h o o l Schools 73,000 School places 2018 19 Children 607 Looked after Children March 2019 21 Adults 9,500 Adults receiving long term support 2018/19 23 Data 32 Key outcome measures 27 State of the County 2019: Population 3 Population 2023 Population 2019 Births Deaths Migration in Migration out 575,430 555,110 + 20,200 - 25,000 + 143,120 - 118,000 = +20,320 (3.7%) Population change 2019-2023: compared to 2019, by 2023 there will be: Projected population by age 2019-2023 20,320 more people living in East Sussex (+3.7%) 350,000 Up 1.5% 2019 300,000 2023 An increase of 3.3% (3,540 people) in the number of children 250,000 and young people 200,000 Page 5 150,000 An increase of 1.5% ( people) in the working age Up 7.9% 4,620 Up 3.3% population 100,000 50,000 Up 11.2% 8.4% (12,170) more people aged 65 and over 0 0-17 18-64 65-84 85+ In East Sussex 4.3% of people will be aged 85+, a greater Age band 2019 2023 Change proportion than England, 2.7%. Ranked 2nd in England for the highest proportion of population 85+, (ONS estimate 2017) 0-17 106,460 110,000 3,540 East Sussex Population 2023 England 18-64 303,730 308,350 4,620 Age Range East England 65-84 122,870 132,560 9,690 0-17 19.1% 21.6% 85+ 22,050 24,530 2,480 18-64 53.6% 59.2% All people 555,110 575,430 20,320 65-84 23.0% 16.6% 4.3% 2.7% Source: ESCC population projections (dwelling led) April 2019. All figures round to nearest 10, therefore totals may not sum. 85+ ONS trend-based population projections England May 2018 State of the County 2019: Population 4 Age band East Sussex population Districts population change: by 2023 there will be An increase of 15.5% (940) more people aged 85+ in Wealden; the smallest 0-17 change 2019 - 2023 increase will be in Eastbourne, 8.9% (410) 9.7% (3,520) more people aged 65-84 in Wealden, and 8.1% (1,300) more 10,000 18-64 people in Hastings, Eastbourne will see a 6.8% (1,470) increase 9,500 65-84 Wealden will also see the largest increase in the working age population 4,000(18-64), of 4.5% (3,900) 9,000 85+ 3,500 Eastbourne will see a 1.4% (780) fall in the working age 8,500 population 3,000 4,000 8,000 2,500 3,500 7,500 2,000 3,000 7,000 1,500 4,000 2,500 1,000 6,500 3,500 2,000 Page 6 4,000 500 6,000 3,000 1,500 3,500 2,500 1,000 0 5,500 3,000 2,000 500 -500 4,000 2,500 5,000 1,500 0 -1,000 3,500Wealden Rother 2,000 4,500 1,000 3,000 1,500 500 4,000 2,500 1,000 0 3,500 Lewes 2,000 500 3,000 1,500 0 1,000 -500 2,500 Hastings 500 2,000 0 1,500 -500 1,000 -1,000 500 -1,500 Eastbourne 0 Source: ESCC population projections (dwelling led) April 2019. All figures round to nearest 10, therefore totals may not sum. East Sussex State of the County 2019: Population 5 Older people moving in and out of East Sussex 2015 - 17 8,914 people aged 65+ moved into East Sussex from elsewhere in England between 2015 - 2017. 5,675 moved out of the county, making the net increase 3,239 The largest net inflow of people arrived from Kent, Brighton & Hove, Surrey and Croydon The largest net outflow of people aged 65+ was to Devon, with 41 more people moving there than coming to East Sussex; second was Somerset with a total of 30 2,065 people aged 65+ moved to East Sussex from London, with only 405 people moving into London Households of people aged 60+ have the highest average levels of disposable income, when compared to all other households The average life expectancy at 65 for people in East Sussex is a further 20.8 years Areas with highest net inflow of Areas with highest net outflow Page 7 internal migration 65+ of internal migration 65+ 2015 - 2017 2015 - 2017 Area In Out Net Area In Out Net Kent 1,536 938 598 Devon 119 160 -41 Brighton and Somerset 69 99 -30 729 354 374 Hove Isle of Wight 40 63 -22 Surrey 609 310 299 Cheshire East 10 29 -20 Croydon 322 44 278 Gloucestershire 50 69 -19 Bromley 285 84 201 North Yorkshire 34 49 -16 West Sussex 1,035 896 139 Lincolnshire 99 113 -14 Bexley 127 24 102 Warwickshire 36 49 -13 Hertfordshire 190 89 101 Norfolk 145 158 -12 Sutton 128 30 98 Merton 101 13 88 Lewisham 81 8 73 Main net flows 2015 - 2017 65+ Lambeth 75 5 70 Net movements in Essex 191 127 64 Wandsworth 73 12 61 Net movements out Greenwich 68 10 58 Sources: ONS ‘Internal migration: detailed estimates by origin and destination local authorities, age and sex’, and ENRICH and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) 25 20 63,000 State of the County 2019: Housing 6 2019 2023 Households percentage by tenure type 2011 100 10 90 15 16 13 12 11 25 15 246,600 257,500 80 256,000 15 14 Households 23 70 29 +4.4% 60 50 40 62 55 73 74 79 30 Households with Children 58,500 59,100 20 20 10 63,000 64,000 +1% 10 0 Source: ESCC household projections by type, dwelling led, April 2019 Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden Social rented, Shared ownership, Rent free Source: ONS KS402, Census 2011 Private rented 2017 15 Page 8 256,000 Owned 5 251,780 dwellings 248,0006.6% of Notes 17,070 Registered provider households had (social landlord) too few rooms A dwelling is a self-contained unit of accommodation used by one or more households as a home, e.g. 9,600 Council houses a house, apartment, mobile home, houseboat. A single dwelling will be considered to contain multiple households if either meals or living space are not shared 6,588 Vacant A household consists of one or more people who live in the same dwelling and also share meals or South East England living accommodation, and may consist of a single family or some other grouping of people 8.7% 10 64,000 0 7.5% Social rented includes council houses and registered providers such as Housing Associations or not-for -profit housing providers approved and regulated by Government. They provide homes for people in Sources: Census 2011, MHCLG live tables on dwelling stock including vacants 0 Note: Affordable housing includes0.5 housing for social rent, shared ownership,1 low cost home ownership 1.5and sub-market rent 2 housing need and2.5 many also run shared ownership3 schemes to help people who cannot afford to buy their home outright Adopted Local Plans (adoption date) Number of dwellings over plan period Completed new dwellings 1,600 Eastbourne: Core Strategy Local Plan 5,022 (2006-2027) 239 p.a. (February 2013) 5 1,200 248,000 Hastings: The Hastings Planning Strategy 3,400 (2011-2028) 200 p.a. Market (February 2014) 943 1,201 dwellings 800 1,164 Lewes: Joint Core Strategy (June 2016) 6,900 (2010-2030) 345 p.a. 967 1,090 Affordable dwellings Rother: Core Strategy (September 2014) 5,700 (2011-2028) 335 p.a. 400 Wealden: Core Strategy (January 2019) 14,228 (2013-2028) 949 p.a. 415 241 308 281 226 0 0 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Source: ESCC Housing Monitoring Database, Lewes District Council housing monitoring system State of the County 2019: Housing 7 Planned housing growth in Adopted Local Plans (less completions to March 2018) 16 14 705 12 Crowborough Rest of Wealden District 1,634 10 1,213 Rest of Rother Page 9 1,445 1,278 District 159 Uckfield Rye Heathfield, Waldron 8 & Horam Rest of Lewes 437 Battle District 1,813 6 6,482 918 2,118 46 South Wealden Lewes Town 2,567 Hastings Growth Area* Bexhill on 4 Sea 1,459 New- 667 2 haven Peacehaven & Telscombe 2,319 Eastbourne 195 Seaford *Wealden Local Plan Submission Document (January 2019) 0 The South Wealden Growth Area (SWGA) includes all or part of the parishes of Hailsham, Polegate, Hellingly, and Westham 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 State of the County 2019: Housing 8 Housing affordability 2018 Housing affordability - renting £ Median average - house price : resident salary East Sussex £ Average rent £ per week 2017/18 £278,500 10 x salary £28,746 250 225 England 200 10x £239,000 8 x salary £29,869 8x 175 150 Ratio: median earnings to Ratio: lower quartile 125 median house prices 2018 earnings to lower quartile 100 house prices 2018 75 12 12 50 10 10 25 8 8 0 Page 10 6 6 Eastbourne Hastings Lewes Rother Wealden 4 4 Local Authority Registered Provider Private 2 2 South East average not published, Hastings and Rother don’t have any LA housing stock 0 0 Source: Gov.uk Private rental market summary statistics, Gov.uk Live tables on rents, lettings and tenancies.