Dilemmas in and Pathways to Transboundary Water Cooperation Between China and India on the Yaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River

water Article Dilemmas in and Pathways to Transboundary Water Cooperation between China and India on the Yaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River Yan Feng 1,2,* , Wenling Wang 1,2 and Jiang Liu 1,2 1 Institute of International River and Eco-security/Asian International Rivers Center, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China; [email protected] (W.W.); [email protected] (J.L.) 2 Yunnan Key Lab of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-security, Kunming 650091, China * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 9 September 2019; Accepted: 7 October 2019; Published: 8 October 2019 Abstract: The Yaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River is a hotspot for the discussions on regional security. The interactions on water between China and India are key to realizing water-related 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets in the basin. Using a series of secondary literature information, and the method of event studies, we created a timeline of the Sino-Indian relation events since the 1950s, analyzed the correlations among the contents, the duties by each side, the events of water cooperation, and the diplomatic events between them. We found the following dilemmas hamper water cooperation: (1) The scopes of, and steps towards, transboundary water cooperation are hampered by patchy Sino-Indian diplomatic relations; and (2) there is a lack of motivation for China to cooperate with India without benefits sharing, given that China has undertaken more duties and has often received negative feedback. However, we also found the following pathways toward improving water cooperation: (1) A national cooperation mechanism on transboundary rivers has been established, which may be beneficial for further water cooperation; and (2) a channel for interdisciplinary dialogue should be encouraged to bridge the disparate outlooks and improve interactions between policymakers and scientific experts. Keywords: transboundary water cooperation; diplomatic relations; China; India; the Yaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River 1. Introduction The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river is one of the world’s richest basins with freshwater, and one of the future risk hotspots for transboundary water disputes [1–4]. The Brahmaputra River (BR) is the largest in the GBM system by annual runoff, and originates in China (where it is known as the Yaluzangbu, or the Tsangpo, or the Yarlung Zangbu), obtains five tributaries from Bhutan, flows through India (as the Brahmaputra) and Bangladesh (as the Jamuna), and finally empties into the Bay of Bengal [5] (pp. 64–80) (Figure1). However, all of the riparian countries are under increasing pressures, due to global change, severe water scarcity, and rising demands from population growth [6,7]. As a result, water issue of the BR are becoming an important part of the political agenda and potential incentive for deepening historical conflicts, particularly between China and India, which may have broader implications on regional security in South Asia [8,9]. In recent years, the projects on water development (including the planning ones) both, in China and India, are concerned about a future water crisis, which have more or less affected the Sino-Indian relations [5,10–13]. Water 2019, 11, 2096; doi:10.3390/w11102096 www.mdpi.com/journal/water Water 2019, 11, 2096 2 of 16 Figure 1. Map of the Yaluzangbu-Brahmaputra River Basin. To explore the status, and the intensity of, water cooperation between China and India over the Brahmaputra River Basin (BRB), we look at the evolution of cooperation since 1950s from hydropolitics and multi-track water diplomacy [14–18]. To evaluate current challenges in Sino-Indian water relations in BRB, we measure the progress of integrated water resources management (IWRM), the implementation through transboundary cooperation in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) [19,20], combining with the water-related targets and indicators of SDG 6 [21]. From the processes and challenges of water cooperation between China and India in the BR, since 1950s, we identify that transboundary water cooperation plays an assisting role in Sino-Indian diplomacy, due to a long-term mistrust and territory dispute, China and India are unlikely to reach full implantation of IWRM of the SDGs in the BR. Further cooperation, such as interdisciplinary scientific dialogue channel in the BR would be promoted, based on the established national cooperation mechanism on water and on a hydrological information sharing. In Sections1 and2, we raise the issue on Sino-Indian water cooperation in the BRB to partly respond to the hotspot during recent years, and introduce the materials and methods used in the analysis process. In Section3, water volumes and populations, in each of the four riparian countries in the BRB, are calculated. Then we review Sino-Indian water cooperation, including the bilateral events that occurred from 1954 to 2018, the issues involving transboundary waters in diplomatic relations since 1997, the responsibilities taken by each of the two countries in water cooperation, and the average percentage of the BRB covered by operational arrangements. Section4 discussed the importance and vulnerability of the BR, the water issues of the BR in China-India relations, and the views of the media. Section5 summarizes the dilemmas involving, and pathways towards, water cooperation for the BR between the two countries. Water 2019, 11, 2096 3 of 16 2. Materials and Methods 2.1. Materials and Methods to Calculate Water and Population Distribution among the Riparian Countries To explore the relative importance of the BR’s water resources to the riparian countries, and the significances of the BR’s water for China and India, we calculated the water distributions and populations among the four riparian countries, based on a range of primary and secondary sources. The mean annual runoff of the BR was calculated according to the observation discharge data at Bahadurabad (Bangladesh) in 1961–2011. The population in 2017 was used for Bhutan, which was released by the National Statistics Bureau of Bhutan [22]. For China, we totaled the number of people living in the watershed in 2017, according to the data from the Bureau of Statistics of Tibet Autonomous Region [23]. The 2017 populations of India, Bangladesh, and South Tibet (China)/Arunachal Pradesh (India)—the disputed area between China and India, were calculated by using data from the 2011 census, the population growth rates of the relative states in India, and the divisions in Bangladesh, as released separately by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation of India [24], and by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics [25], and the percentages of the areas in the watershed compared to the total areas of the states/divisions [26]. With respect to the lengths of the mainstream, drainage areas, and annual runoffs within the watershed, we calculated the measurements in China by using the relative data from the Department of Water Resources of Tibet Autonomous Region [27]. The annual runoff in Bhutan was the difference between the runoff from Bhutan to India [28], with the outflow from China to Bhutan [27]; while for Bangladesh, we used was the difference between the runoff at Bahadurabad and the runoff from India to Bangladesh [28]. The lengths of the mainstream and drainage areas, in Bhutan and in Bangladesh, were from Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) [28]. The annual runoff in India was equal to the runoff from Indian to Bangladesh, minus the runoff from Bhutan to India [28], and from China to India [27]. The length of the mainstream and drainage area in India were identified from Datta and Singh [29] (pp.139–195). We also gave special consideration to the disputed area between China and India in the BRB, which is known as South Tibet (claimed by China) and Arunachal Pradesh (by India), as the volume of the water resource and the drainage area were double-counted by China and India. The annual runoff in this area is estimated by the assumption of water resources evenly distributed in the southern slope of the Himalaya Mountains. 2.2. Methods to Assess the Progress of Water Cooperation and IWRM Implementation in the BRB between China and India To gain a better understanding of the developing process and the status of Sino-Indian water relations, we created a timeline of Sino-Indian water cooperations since 1954, and found that the well-developed period of bilateral water cooperation was in 2002–2015, based on governmental documents and literature review. We consulted the joint official documents since 1997, to gain a clearer understanding of the relationship between water cooperation and Sino-Indian relations. After collecting all the Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) and the relative implementation plans on the BR, signed by China and India since 2002, we identified the corresponding duties undertaken from each side. According to the articles from the MOUs, we gained a deeper understanding of the reality of Sino-Indian water cooperation. To measure the progress of IWRM implementation in SDG 6, in the BRB between China and India, based on the contents of water cooperaton between China and India, and SDG Indicator 6.5.2 “proportion of transboundary basin area with an operational arrangement for water cooperation” [30] (pp. 18–20), we redefined the content of “transboundary basin area” in the study. This was the surface water catchment of the BRB located in China and India. The indicator was derived at the BRB level between China and India by the area of the surface water catchment, covered by an operational arrangement divided by the total area of the BRB in the two countries, which was then multiplied by Water 2019, 11, 2096 4 of 16 100 to obtain the percentage share. We then used the method of “typology of cooperation” [31,32] to evaluate the outcome of “operational arrangement” for Sino-Indian water cooperation. 3. Results 3.1. Water Resources Distribution in the BR Basin From the calculations, we found the following: The mainstream of the BR has a total length of 2937 km; the total drainage area is around 514,300 km2; the mean annual runoff at Bahadurabad is 661.7 km3; and the total population in the BRB in 2017 was around 112 million (Table1, Figure1).

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