photo size: 4.5 cm wide crop to 2.4 cm high photo size: 4.5 cm wide crop to 3.7 cm high Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis Final Report Prepared by MVA for West Lothian Council November 2005 In Association With: David Simmonds Consultancy, Hargest & Wallace Ltd Document Control Project Title: Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis MVA Project Number: c34010 Document Type: Final Report WP Reference: SL Temporary Directory & H:\tp\C34010 Aird-Bath EALI\final report\Airdrie- File Name: Bathgate-EALI-v8.doc Final Workspace Location Document Approval Primary Author: Scott Leitham Other Author(s): David Simmonds Keith Hargest Reviewer(s): John Baggaley Formatted by: Jane Rumbles Distribution Issue Date Distribution Comments 1 20/04/2005 WLC / NLC 1st draft - incomplete 2 20/05/2005 WLC / NLC 2nd draft - incomplete 3 03/06/2005 WLC / NLC Full Draft 4 29/07/2005 WLC / NLC Final Draft 5 02/12/2005 WLC / NLC Final Report Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) 1 1.2 EALI Approach 2 1.3 Structure of Report 2 2 The Airdrie to Bathgate Scheme 5 2.1 Background 5 2.2 Historical Context 6 2.3 New Services 7 2.4 Scope of Impacts 8 2.5 Additional public transport 15 2.6 A broader vision 16 2.7 City Regions 17 3 Socio-Economic Baseline 19 3.1 Introduction 19 3.2 Current public transport provision 19 3.3 Economic Overview 21 3.4 Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation data 32 3.5 Household Car Availability 35 3.6 Travel to Work patterns in Airdrie-Bathgate area 35 3.7 Travel to work destinations 36 3.8 Recent developments in employment, access to other services 37 3.9 European Funding Status 39 3.10 Overview of Demographic / Economic Forecasts 40 3.11 Planning Context 42 3.12 Summary 43 4 Business Interviews & Other Consultation 45 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Summary of Business Interview Findings 45 4.3 Wider Stakeholder Consultation 59 5 Land Use – Transport Modelling Results 63 5.1 Introduction 63 5.2 Modelling Approach and Background 63 5.3 Impacts: testing and results 68 5.4 Appraisal 71 5.5 Conclusions 75 Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis Contents 6 Development Context 77 6.1 Introduction 77 6.2 Development Impacts 77 6.3 Developer Comments 78 6.4 TELMoS Modelling Results 79 6.5 Land Use Planning Implications 81 6.6 Relationship to Planning Policy 83 6.7 Other Government Policies 87 7 Conclusions 89 7.1 Summary 89 7.2 Conclusions 89 Tables Table 3.1 Airdrie town centre to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard 20 Table 3.2 Airdrie town centre to Edinburgh Park 20 Table 3.3 Bathgate (King St) to Glasgow city centre* 20 Table 3.4 Caldercruix to Livingston Almondvale Boulevard 20 Table 3.5 Armadale to Glasgow city centre* 21 Table 3.6 Population & GDP summary 24 Table 3.7 Economic activity and unemployment 24 Table 3.8 Population statistics 25 Table 3.9 Earnings and jobs by sector 26 Table 3.10 Relevant West Lothian and North Lanarkshire wards 27 Table 3.11 Levels of Unemployment & Economic Activity (2001 census) 28 Table 3.12 Levels of Population and recent change (2001 census) 29 Table 3.13 Qualification levels (2001 census) 30 Table 3.14 Population projections (2002-18) 42 Table 4.1 Breakdown of sample of firms 46 Table 4.2 Anticipated use of new line 55 Table 5.1 Regional Economic Model Sectors 66 Table 5.2 SP allocations - residential development and employment land 69 Table 5.3 Summary of forecast impacts of line 76 Figures Figure 2.1 Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in Scottish context 6 Figure 2.2 Location of Airdrie-Bathgate line in local context 6 Figure 2.3 Stations potentially affected by line re-opening 9 Figure 4.1 Location of sample of firms 46 Figure 4.2 Bathgate/Livingston firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors 48 Figure 4.3 Airdrie firms’ main markets / suppliers / competitors 49 Figure 5.1 Main model components and linkages 65 All following Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 North Lanarkshire Wards Figure 3.2 West Lothian Wards Figure 3.3 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Glasgow Figure 3.4 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Airdrie area Figure 3.5 Community Regeneration Fund areas – Bathgate area Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis Contents Figure 3.6 SIMD Overall, Airdrie area Figure 3.7 SIMD Overall, Bathgate area Figure 3.8 SIMD Overall, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area Figure 3.9 SIMD Employment, Airdrie Area Figure 3.10 SIMD Employment, Bathgate area Figure 3.11 SIMD Employment, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor Figure 3.12 SIMD Income, Airdrie area Figure 3.13 SIMD Income, Bathgate area Figure 3.14 SIMD Income, Airdrie-Bathgate corridor area Figure 3.15 SIMD Education, Airdrie area Figure 3.16 SIMD Education, Bathgate area Figure 3.17 SIMD Education, Airdrie Bathgate corridor area Figure 3.18 Household Car availability in corridor – East Glasgow Figure 3.19 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie / Coatbridge Figure 3.20 Household Car availability in corridor – Bathgate area Figure 3.21 Household Car availability in corridor – Airdrie-Bathgate corridor Figure 3.22 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, Car Figure 3.23 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, Car Figure 3.24 Travel to work destinations, North Lanarkshire, PT Figure 3.25 Travel to work destinations, West Lothian, PT Figure 3.26 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Airdrie area Figure 3.27 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Bathgate area Figure 3.28 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Corridor area Figure 3.29 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Glasgow area Figure 3.30 Total volume of travel to work trips (destinations) – Edinburgh area Figure 3.31 Main job losses in North Lanarkshire (2001-) Figure 3.32 Main job gains in North Lanarkshire (2001-) Figure 3.33 Main job losses in West Lothian (2001-) Figure 3.34 Main job gains in West Lothian (2001-) Figure 3.35 Location of major employers - West Lothian (2005) Figure 3.36 Location of major employers – North Lanarkshire (2005) Figure 3.37 Location of employers in vicinity of line – West Lothian Figure 3.38 Location of employers in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire Figure 3.39 Location of council schools and services in vicinity of line – West Lothian Figure 3.40 Location of council services in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire Figure 3.41 Location of council schools in vicinity of line – North Lanarkshire All Following Chapter 5 Figure 5.2 TELMoS Model sub-regions Figure 5.3 Absolute changes in employment, 2021 Figure 5.4 Absolute changes in population, 2021 Figure 5.5 Percentage changes in employment, 2021 Figure 5.6 Percentage changes in population, 2021 Figure 5.7 Corridor Level Impacts Figure 5.8 Corridor definitions Figure 5.9 District level impacts Figure 5.10 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Corridor area Figure 5.11 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Airdrie area Figure 5.12 Increase in resident workers and CRF areas – Bathgate area Appendices Appendix A Study Brief Appendix B Assisted Area Status Map Airdrie-Bathgate Line: Economic Activity and Location Impacts Analysis Summary The proposed re-opening of the railway line between Airdrie and Bathgate is a significant railway scheme in the context of passenger travel in central Scotland. It is proposed that the existing Helensburgh / Balloch to Airdrie train services are extended via the new line to Edinburgh Waverley. The introduction of these new train services will provide a step-change in the quality of public transport available for those travelling east from Airdrie / Coatbridge and west from Bathgate / Livingston in particular. It will also be possible to travel by train on a direct service between areas west of Glasgow (north of the Clyde) / eastern Glasgow / Coatbridge / Airdrie and West Lothian / Edinburgh. Areas of West Lothian and North Lanarkshire affected by the new line will also gain improved access to the national rail network, via better links to Glasgow and Edinburgh respectively. This report documents the findings of an appraisal of the Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) of the proposed re-opening of the line, which assumes four new intermediate stations at Plains, Caldercruix, Blackridge and Armadale. The EALI analysis forms an important element of the ‘Economy’ appraisal within the Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG). It sets out to identify and appraise the impacts of the line, with particular emphasis on changes in the location of employment and population resulting from the new line. It is anticipated that the re-opening of the line will act as a catalyst for regeneration along the corridor area between and including Airdrie and Bathgate. This includes the communities of Armadale, Blackridge, Plains, and Caldercruix, settlements spread along the A89. These communities have suffered from industrial decline in recent decades and are now somewhat over-looked and ‘bypassed’ by other transport corridors. There are numerous areas of deprivation (as identified by the Scottish Executive’s SIMD) along the corridor which would be expected to benefit from the new employment and other opportunities (eg education and training) brought about by the new line. These areas also have relatively low levels of car ownership. In addition to regeneration, West Lothian in particular has a substantial allocation of housing development in the current Edinburgh and Lothians Structure Plan. North Lanarkshire Council is reviewing its Local Plan coverage. There is significant private sector interest in potential housing development in the Caldercruix area.