Télécharger Le Document

A B S T R A C T S futuribles - no. 405 - March-April 2015 What Form of Climate Justice? Climate Objectives and Develop ment: A Challenge to the Idea of Emissions Promoting Convergence between Rights and Permits Millennium and Climate Goals Frédéric-Paul Piguet in Climate Negotiations Sandrine Mathy With the next Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate The next Conference of the Parties (COP) to Change (COP) coming up in Paris in late 2015, the United Nations Framework Convention it is probably a good time to examine the on Climate Change will be held in France in philosophical foundations underpinning dis - late 2015. The aim of the gathering will be cussions on the –largely economic– mecha - to arrive at an international agreement to nisms likely to modify the behaviour of the keep global warming below an upper limit main greenhouse-gas emitters. That is, at of 2 °C (above 1990 levels) by the end of the any rate, the aim of this article by Frédéric- century. As the COPs of recent years have Paul Piguet on the notion of “climate justice”, shown, this is an ambitious goal and many which questions the pertinence of emissions obstacles stand in its way, among them the rights and permits, and examines how the development of emerging and developing limits of the biosphere should be respected, nations. Why should these countries be forced on the basis of the principle of not doing to restrict their economic development when harm to others. “liability for climate change” rests mainly After reminding us of the principles of dis - with the developed nations? tributive justice as this applies in the envi - The question is entirely legitimate, which is ronmental field, Piguet demonstrates the why it would probably be more constructive, inability of that theory to confront the bio - as Sandrine Mathy advocates here, to nego - sphere for what it is: namely, the fundamen - tiate in a way that combines thinking on Mil - tal precondition for humanity’s common good, len nium Development Goals with climate which must be respected in a way that tran - objectives. As this article shows, it is entirely scends the generations, its equilibrium tak - possible to combine these two types of aim ing precedence over all other considerations, and promote economic development and including the economic. poverty reduction while, at the same time, Applying this conception, the limits of the striving to limit greenhouse gas emissions. biosphere must not be evaluated in terms of Mathy shows what the common factors are a “sociologized” judgment, as is the case at and frames concrete recommendations for the moment, but an “ecologized” one, “rec - establishing a mechanism to promote this ognizing the part of the biosphere that isn’t convergence between poverty reduction available for humanity’s use and mustn’t be and climate preservation. touched.” Hence the impossibility of distri - buting emissions rights for the levels that The 21 st Century an Asian Century infringe on this untouchable part, and the Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière inadequacy of theories of distributive justice and Marc Lautier in this regard. Stressing the fact that the ca - pacities of the biosphere cannot be treated At the very beginning of the economic crisis as extendable “spoils” to be shared out, he of 2008, Jean-Raphaël Chaponnière wrote in sees the prohibition on doing harm as the these pages that economic developments, principle that can set the biosphere in its combined with demographic trends, pre - rightful place as the fundamental precondi - saged a –probably sustained– shift of the tion for the common good. Consequently, high world economy’s centre of gravity towards levels of emissions can only be granted a Asia (no. 347). Seven years later, with the “transitory tolerance” that underscores their crisis still ongoing in most of the major indus - lack of legitimacy. trialized countries, this shift towards Asia is 118 ABSTRACTS now virtually beyond dispute. The 21 st cen - order and disorder. He stresses, for example, tury will probably be an Asian century, as is the part played by surprise and emotion, borne out by Chaponnière and Lautier’s article. and also their influence on our represen - After recalling the demographic prospects for tations of the world (Nassim Taleb’s “black Eastern and South Asia, the authors stress swans”) and shows that the propensity of the influence of ageing on Chinese econo - living systems to reorganize when stimulat - mic growth and the uncertainties over the ed by unexpected information is crucial to economic impacts of demographic transition their staying alive, but that this inevitably in South-East Asia. They then offer an analy - restricts our forecasting capacities. sis of regional economic prospects within a Having stressed the usefulness of a degree global context, with a possible Chinese cri - of disorder that is essential to life, Thierry sis in the short term (though with limited Gaudin demonstrates the extent to which consequences for the rest of the world) and the multiple crises afflicting our planet over uncertainties in the medium term (the “me - more than half a century show up the lim - dium income trap”, risks associated with its of a system whose mechanisms are hob - changes in the agricultural sector, the struc - bled by a model of governance dictated by ture of the Asian economies etc.), both of a single monetary logic. Drawing a parallel these as consequences of a potential “secu - with the situation that prevailed in Europe lar stagnation”. Yet, even if it slows, the in the late Middle Ages, he concludes that economic growth of emergent Asia, based such a structure is currently reaching a limit- more on consumption and services, is set to point beyond which collapse and decline remain higher than that of the advanced seem inevitable, unless common goods are countries up to 2050, and the Asian conti - put back at the heart of our institutions and nent should remain at the heart of the world we diversify monetary creation. economy. While not ruling out the danger of geopolitical upheavals, Chaponnière and Lau tier draw attention to the future chal - Beyond Bitcoin: What Are the lenges facing Asia as a result of the effects Prospects for Virtual Currencies? of economic and demographic growth on Cécile Désaunay the environment and of the tensions inher - ent in the social inequalities that have dev - Currencies complementary to what is offi - eloped there. cially legal tender have existed for a long time. Local currencies and, indeed, some local exchange trading systems (LETS) figure Chance, Disorder and Money: among such currencies, making it possible Thoughts Prompted by the Dynamics to offset some negative effects of official of Living Systems currencies and meet specific local needs. Thierry Gaudin Nevertheless, the increasing use of ICT, in particular widespread Internet use, has In the current context of climate change and opened up new possibilities for the expan - the exhaustion of resources, the question of sion of complementary currencies and these humanity’s survival returns to the agenda have effectively gone virtual and become with some regularity ( cf . Jared Diamond, Jo - accessible to a large number of potential seph Tainter, André Lebeau etc). Futuribles users. In light of this particular context and has reflected this concern on several occa - developments in recent years (particularly sions (including in the last issue –no. 404– with regard to one of the most emblematic with Pierre Bonnaure raising the question of of virtual currencies, namely Bitcoin), what the long-term prospects for our civilization). are the future prospects for virtual curren - On this occasion, it is by way of a long-run cies in general? analysis, taking account of the dynamics of In a foresight analysis published by the Fut - living (plant, animal and human) systems, uribles International association, Cécile Dé - that Thierry Gaudin approaches the subject. sau nay has looked into this question and, in The author focuses here on the estimation this article, presents the main lessons to be of the probability that an event will occur learned. After outlining the main forms of and, hence, on the virtues and limitations of virtual currency that exist today, the aims forecasting exercises. He reminds us that they serve (which may be political, ethical, living systems naturally evolve by a logic environmental etc.) and the motivations of that is neither totally subject to chance nor their users, she shows how these currencies entirely deterministic, but half-way bet ween are being dealt with in the economic sphere 119 © futuribles n° 405 . mars-avril 2015 (by major corporations, particularly in the decried in its early days, that music eventu - digital sector) and the public sphere (main - ally gained general acceptance and he hopes ly by financial institutions and states). Dé - his cuisine will prosper in the same way. sau nay goes on to examine the perspectives opened up by the development of virtual currencies and to sketch out a number of sce - Is Europe Under Siege? narios for their potential future development. Jean-François Drevet As it has been built up and extended over time, the European Union has managed, in Note-by-Note Cuisine: A Trend that’s some five decades, to form itself into a Here to Stay? peaceful grouping of 28 member states and Hervé This eliminate the serious rivalries that caused Hervé This, who, along with Nicholas Kurti such bloodshed on the continent in the 19 th in the late 1980s, created the scientific dis - and 20 th centuries. This is undoubtedly a cipline known as molecular gastronomy great achievement but, some 25 years after (which studies the mechanisms of the phe - the ending of the Cold War, new conflict nomena produced when ingredients are zones are emerging or consolidating them - trans formed in cookery), has since taken his selves on the periphery of the Union, raising innovative cookery research further, devel - the question of what political and security oping the new concept of “note-by-note cui - responses the EU can muster.

Load more