Coleman Chap

The Project on Trends:The Project on Trends: An Introduction S1 An Introduction WILLIAM D. COLEMAN Department of Political Science McMaster University Hamilton, Ontario n recent years, the rapid pace of change has put hence its relationship to the development of civil Isignificant pressure on the policy capacity of society was also examined. (David Cameron/Janice governments. Governments worldwide are finding Stein, University of Toronto) that they do not have adequate knowledge to respond to the challenges brought about by rapid technologi- North American integration. Although this theme is cal advances and the forces of globalization. a very old one in Canadian political and social life, Strengthening the policy capacity of governments this research was to take a broad look at aggregate lies in part in strengthening the policy research economic performance, more general indicators of process to produce the knowledge that governments the quality of life, the way Canadians are governed, need. Toward this end, in July 1996, the Clerk of and on culture broadly defined. In each of these the Privy Council and Secretary to the Cabinet es- areas, several key questions were to be addressed. tablished the Policy Research Initiative (PRI). Its What is different about North American integration task was to develop a research strategy to help today, if anything? What have these recent changes Canada prepare for the public policy challenges of meant for things Canadians care about? What is the coming years. The Project on Trends built upon likely to happen to North American integration in the PRI’s efforts by engaging Canada’s academic the next decade? What can we do to preserve and community. More than fifty academics were enhance the apparent opportunities from North organized into eight teams that synthesized current American integration? What can we do to minimize research to improve our understanding of the forces the apparent risks? (Kenneth Norrie, University of of change that have an impact on public policy and Alberta and later George Hoberg, University of Brit- decision-making in Canada. These teams took the ish Columbia) following form: Multiple centres of power. This trend was understood Globalization. Although this concept is a remark- to have three components that merited further re- ably complex one, the focus here was on cultural search and study. First, governments have decided and social processes. What effect does globaliza- to transfer significant power to regional and global tion have on shaping identity, on social systems and organizations. Although these decisions were freely on the common institutions within which people live made in response to real needs for better governance, and work? The possible impact of globalization on the result has been to circumscribe freedom of states the capacity to establish and maintain public space, to act. Second, it is clear that multinational CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY – ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES, VOL. XXVI SUPPLEMENT/NUMÉRO SPÉCIAL 2 2000 S2 William D. Coleman enterprises (MNEs) have increasing power to decide society will continue to rise over the following three where jobs and wealth will be created. MNEs have decades. These potential changes to Canadian soci- a significant role in determining the global rules of ety raise a number of questions. What tensions or the game. There is also an increase in power of non- conflicts might such changes give rise to in the fu- governmental bodies of various kinds. Third, with ture? Is an aging society necessarily less dynamic, the end of the Cold War and the tremendous growth less innovative, and less productive? Will there be of Asian economies, the political and economic increased intergenerational conflict? (Verena shape of the world has changed dramatically. China, Haldeman, Université de Moncton and later David India, Brazil, and other countries are likely to as- Cheal, University of Winnipeg) sume greater importance. A bipolar world has shifted to one with a single, but not single-minded, super- Environmental pressures. Numerous possible ques- power and fluid sets of coalitions on particular tions were identified under this theme. What are the issues. (Gordon Smith, University of Victoria) key vulnerabilities to climatic variability and change in Canada, and what factors determine Canadian ca- Changes in values of citizens. The theme of value pacity for adaptive response or coping? How are change has been documented in a variety of ad- current trends in technological change likely to ex- vanced industrial states. Value changes have been acerbate or mitigate the environmental consequences associated with various phenomena, including weak- of increases in population and economic activity? ening citizen attachments to traditional political How are patterns of environmental change presently parties, the rise of elite-challenging forms of behav- challenging Canadian federalism, and how do the iour, the emergence of social movements reflecting challenges of managing environmental change quality of life issues, and growing dissatisfaction within Canada’s federal system interact with broader with the status quo. In light of these developments, challenges and controversies of federal reform? the following questions were to be addressed. Have What are the effects, strengths, and limitations of significant changes taken place in how citizens are new approaches to environmental policy? What are connected with each other? Have significant changes the current stresses and challenges to effective pro- taken place in how citizens are connected to the vision of scientific and technological advice in state? Are there detectable shifts in communal support of environmental decision-making? What orientations? Is there rising dissatisfaction with the are the implications for management of the envi- way democracy “works” in Canada? (Neil Nevitte, ronment and natural resources of the newly evolving University of Toronto) relationship between Canadian governments and native peoples? As economic activities are increas- Social differentiation. Social differentiation consti- ingly organized on a global scale, so is policy tutes a major characteristic of contemporary response to environmental change. What are the societies that has provoked increasing concern. Are implications for Canadian environmental manage- social categories defined in terms of sex, ethnicity, ment of these two linked processes of globalization? age, immigration status, region, indigenous peoples (Edward A. Parson, Harvard University) or age linked to economic, social, political and cultural inequalities that have emerged in society? If Technological change and the information revolu- so, what is the dynamic linking social differentiation. What are the implications of technological tion with societal fragmentation? (Danielle Juteau, changes, particularly through the introduction of Université de Montréal) communications and information technologies, on Canadian society in general, and on culture, the Aging. Demographic projections clearly show that economy and on structures of authority in particu- the relative proportion of older persons in Canadian lar? What are the special problems posed for the CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY – ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES, VOL. XXVI SUPPLEMENT/NUMÉRO SPÉCIAL 2 2000 The Project on Trends: An Introduction S3 formulation and implementation of public policies trends. These critical essays were to review and syn- posed by these changes? (Donald McFedridge, thesize current knowledge, discuss its policy Carleton University) implications, and identify priority directions for future research. The length of the critical essays was The Policy Research Secretariat then entered into a to vary from 30 to 75 pages, depending on the sub- joint initiative with the Social Sciences and Humani- ject matter. Given the horizontal nature of the ties Research Council of Canada (SSHRCC) to fund themes, essays involving more than one discipline a further investigation of these trends. were especially encouraged. It was also expected that the project’s forward-looking focus would The Project on Trends was thus set up to try to accommodate unconventional methods of synthesis identify and address the gaps in Canada’s knowl- and presentation, as well as the development of edge in these eight areas. By reaching out to the provocative/speculative arguments — provided that Canadian research community, this project sought the analysis was well grounded in scientific and to obtain a broader range of perspectives in order to scholarly knowledge that met high intellectual further Canadians’ understanding of the forces, or standards. mega-trends, that will drive change in Canada in the next millennium. It was also hoped that by provid- The call for proposals went out in the spring of ing the academic community with a mechanism for 1998 and generated a response that far exceeded participation in policy-relevant research, the Project initial expectations. Both the SSHRCC and the PRS on Trends would lay the foundations for a sustained added funds to expand the project somewhat in light relationship between policymakers and the academic of the high demand. In fact, over 250 proposals were community. received. A process of peer review involving the respective team leaders and an interdisciplinary The specific objectives of the program were committee of established scholars was devised by the SSHRCC. Based on this peer review, eight re- • to assess the state of our knowledge and to iden- search teams were

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