ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010

• According to the Joint Government and Humanitarian Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, February 2010 released on 2 February 2010, an estimated 5.23 million people will require emergency food assistance through December 2010. This equates to a net food requirement of 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD 231.3 million.

• Performance of the kiremt rains (June to September) was below normal, particularly in Gambella, the eastern half of the country and southern lowlands of SNNPR. As a result, main season meher crop harvests were poor in these areas and heightened food insecurity is anticipated between April and September.

• The National Metrology Agency (NMA) predicts that performance of the gu/ganna/belg/sugum 2010 rains (March‐June) will be normal to above normal throughout the country except in the south and southeastern pastoral areas where rains are expected to be normal to below normal. Source: FEWS NET and WFP For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please • Several woredas in the eastern parts of Amhara, see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurity Scale Tigray, Afar, and Somali regions are facing water shortages at the start of the dry season following the poor kiremt rains.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

Source: FEWS NET

FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET Washington Addis Ababa 1717 H St NW FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Tel: +251 11 662 02 17/18 Washington DC 20006 for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] [email protected]

www.fews.net/ethiopia

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010

Food security overview

According to the Joint Government and Humanitarian Partners’ Humanitarian Requirement Document, released on 2 February 2010, an estimated 5.23 million people will require emergency food assistance through December 2010. This equates to a net food requirement of 290,271 MT, estimated to cost around USD 231.3 million. The document also estimates non‐food needs that include water and sanitation, health and nutrition, agriculture and livestock, and education at USD 63.4 million (Table 1).

Table 1: Summary of Humanitarian Requirements (in USD) - 2010 Total Available Net Sector Requirement Resources Requirement General Ration: Gross: 642,983MT (503,013MT cereals; 52,882MT blended food; 66,404MT 489,310,063 301,517,332 187,792,731 pulses; 20,684MT oil) Net: 246,771 MT Supplementary (EOS/TSF) Food: Gross: 53,000 53,000,000 9,500,000 43,500,000 MT Net; 43,500MT Food sub-total 542,310,063 311,017,332 231,292,731 Health and Nutrition 32,037,209 1,000,000 31,037,209 Water and Sanitation 16,759,837 7,368,069 9,392,143 Agriculture and livestock 10,606,074 - 10,606,074 Education 4,041,501 - 4,041,501 Non-food sub-total 63,444,621 8,368,069 55,076,927 GRAND TOTAL 606,461,447 319,938,401 286,369,658 Source: Humanitarian Requirement Document 2010 Joint Government and partners’ document, January 2010

Western parts of the country are generally food secure following good meher crop production, with the exception of Gambella Region, where the poor performance of the 2009 Belg and Kiremt rains have left many of the woredas highly food insecure.

Food security continues to be poor in the eastern meher crop producing parts of the country following the poor meher (October to January) production. Food security is rapidly deteriorating in the lowlands of East and West Harerghe, Arsi and Bale zones of Oromia Region. Migration of several households has occurred from Miesso and Midhega Tolla woredas to other zones of the region, particularly to Kellem Wellega in the west due to acute food insecurity. According to official sources, about 2,352 people in Miesso left their homes during the last quarter of 2009 in search of food. The numbers could be higher if unregistered migrants are included. Cases of malnutrition are reported in several woredas of East and West Harerghe, parts of Bale and West Arsi zones. Sporadic cases of acute malnutrition are also reported in the four woredas of Kellem Wellega zone where migrants from the Harerghe zones are located in large numbers. A similar situation is reported in Sekota woreda of Wag Hamra zone in with reports that hundreds of households are outmigrating. Serious food shortages are also reported from East woredas of North zone in Amhara Region. Lowland woredas of Eastern and Southern Zones of have also faced poor performance of meher crops resulting in high levels of food insecurity.

Widespread shortages of water are reported in the lowland areas of the eastern meher producing parts of the country where most of the ponds have little or no water. The shortages are very serious, particularly in Babile, Gursum, Midhega Tola, Fedis, Kurfa Chelie, Gursum, and Meyu Mulukie woredas of East Hararghie zone; Mieso, Burka Dhimtu, and Hawi Gudina woredas of West Hararghie zone, Seru, Bele, , Sere, and woredas of and Siraro and Shalla woredas of West Arsi zone in Oromia Region. The gravity of the water problem has forced the closure of some schools in Meyu Mulukie woredas of East Hararghe Zone in Oromia Region. In Amhara Region, serious water shortages are reported in the lowland parts woredas of Minjar and Shenkora, and Berehet woredas of North Zone, East Belesa, , Janamora, and Wogera of and parts of North Wello and Wag Himra Zones. Water shortages also exist in Raya Azebo, Alamata and Enderta woredas of Eastern zone; Saesie Tsaeda Emba and Ganta

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010

Ahfeshum woredas of Southern zone and Medebay Zana of Western zone of Tigray Region. Most of these areas require water trucking until the belg rains begin in March.

The physical condition of livestock in mid and high altitude areas is generally normal since crop residue from recent harvest is still available. On the other hand, physical condition of livestock is poor in most lowlands.

Following good production of meher crops in the western meher crop producing parts of the country, supply of grains to the markets is good and prices of cereals are seasonably declining although still much higher compared to the past five years’ average. Overall, the eastern meher producing parts of the country are highly food insecure and the situation is expected to deteriorate further as the available crops from the meher harvest (October to January) decline.

Food security has temporarily improved in most parts of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) as a result of the near normal meher harvest, particularly in mid and high altitude areas, the start of fresh harvest of root crops, and the continuation of productive safety net resource transfers. Income from the coffee harvest and the associated income from coffee labor have been good this year in the coffee producing zones. The physical condition of livestock is good as availability of pasture and water has improved except in pocket areas in and several localities in woredas. Prices of food grains have declined in most markets across the region with increased supply of meher crops in the market. The southern parts of the region however, particularly Konso, Derashe, Amaro and Burji special woredas that heavily rely on the belg crops, continue to be highly food insecure as the 2009 belg nearly failed and harvest from the meher season was also poor. A significant portion of the people in these woredas depend on food assistance both from the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) and the emergency program. Most lowlands of the region also continue to be highly food insecure due to poor performance of both belg and meher crops. The combined impact of the below average rains during the last belg and meher seasons have left large numbers of people vulnerable to food shortages mostly in the lowlands of south and southeastern crop producing portions of the region. Food security in these areas will likely worsen until belg harvests occur, normally in June/July.

Food insecurity in the predominantly pastoral region of Afar and the northern two zones of Somali Region continues to be serious, particularly in the northern parts of Afar region and Shinile zone of Somali Region due to repeated poor performance of seasonal rains that have resulted in the reduction of household animal holdings. Severe water shortages still persist in chronically water deficit woredas of Elidar, Kori, Bidu, Erebti and Teru woredas in Afar region and Ayisha, Afdem and Erer woredas in Shinile zone of Somali Region. The physical condition of livestock, especially cattle and sheep, is very poor due to scarcity of water and pasture. Milk availability is very low due to poor conceptions in 2009. There is an increased migration of pastoralists with their livestock to the Chefa area of Amhara Region and areas along the Awash River. Food security is highly dependent on food aid both from the PSNP and the emergency programs.

Some areas in the southern parts of Afar region and eastern parts of Shinile zone in Somali Region have received unseasonable rains in recent weeks. If these rains continue, pasture and water availability are likely to improve. The climate outlook provided by the National Metrology Agency predicts that performance of the sugum (March to May) rains will be normal to above normal in these areas. If the forecast holds, water and pasture availability is expected to improve resulting in improvement in the physical condition of livestock. Improvement in food security however, will take much longer as several seasons of good rains are required to recover the pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood in this area.

The recent Deyr (October to December 2009) rains in Somali Region and neighboring lowlands of Oromia were below normal in amount and spatial distribution resulting in scarcity of water and pasture in many areas. Most water sources have dried up and pasture availability is also poor. This has led to significant outmigration of people and livestock in search of pasture and water within both Somali Region and Oromia region. The shortages exist in all the seven southern zones of Somali Region as well as lowlands of Bale of Oromia region. They are particularly severe in Warder, Korahe, Degahabur and Afder zones of Somali Region and Dewe Kechen, Rayitu, Dawe Serer and Delomena woredas of in Oromia Region. In Rayitu, Dewe Kechen and Delo Mena woredas several schools are closed due to acute shortages of water.The situation is likely to worsen as the dry season, Jilaal, progresses until the gu rains begin in April. Unusual livestock influx into some areas that received relatively better rainfall during the last Deyr season has resulted in high livestock concentrations and rapid depletion of pasture due to overgrazing. Although emergency water trucking is underway in some woredas to alleviate the water shortages, the interventions so far are not sufficient to meet the growing demand. Water shortages

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010

pose high risk of outbreak of water borne diseases like diarrhea due to poor sanitation that emanates from water scarcity. The physical condition of livestock, mainly cattle and sheep, is poor however; there are no outbreaks of livestock diseases. Overall Somali Region and the lowlands of Bale continue to be highly food insecure following poor milk availability due to poor conceptions and low livestock productivity, poor harvest from both the deyr and karran seasons in the agro‐pastoral areas, and poor terms of trade due to poor physical condition of livestock. The food situation is further worsened by insecurity in parts of the region that limited food supply to local markets and affected regularity of relief distributions over the past few months.

Table 2. Review of January Outlook assumptions and subsequent development Main expected impacts on food Variables and Assumptions Actual conditions and impacts observed to date security In the absence of a metrological Improvement in pasture and water in The national metrology agency has provided an outlook forecast, it was assumed that the areas currently facing shortages as well for the season. There have also been unseasonable rains February to May rains will be as good planting of belg crops was that slightly improved water and pasture availability in normal. anticipated. parts of the country. Performance of the actual rains remains to be observed.

Improved availability of food aid Improvement in the availability and WFP has reported that emergency food aid is available (general ration and access of food at the household level and full ration will be distributed to identified supplementary food) beneficiaries at least in the first quarter of 2010.

Staple prices remain stable Access to food improved Generally cereal prices have shown a declining trend following the seasonal pattern except in some pastoral and agro pastoral areas where physical condition of livestock is poor affecting terms of trade.

Seasonal forecasts of the gu/ganna/belg/sugum rains forecast from February to May

The gu/ganna/sugum/belg rains are the main rains for the Figure 2. 2010 belg/gu/ganna/sugum season (Februry to southeastern pastoral areas, including most of Somali May) climate outlook Region, adjacent lowlands of Oromia Region, and the southern special woredas of SNNP Region. The rains are the secondary rains for the northeastern highlands, the northeastern pastoral areas, areas along the Rift Valley, and most crop‐producing areas of SNNP Region. For the western parts of the country, it is the start of the long rainy season.

According to the seasonal forecast of the National Meteorology Agency released on 5 February, the rains are expected to be normal to above normal through most of the country with the exception of the south and southeastern parts of the country (Figure 2). If the forecast holds, belg crop production in the belg producing parts of the country is

expected to be normal. Performances of the 2008 and 2009 Source: Based on National Meteorological Agency’s Climate Outlook forum, belg season rains were below normal, resulting in poor belg Feb 5, 2010. crop production. Food security of the belg season dependent Graphics by FEWS NET population that experienced a very poor or failed belg harvest in the past two years is expected to improve in June/July with the anticipated good harvest. Households in the mainly belg‐dependent livelihood zones of the northeastern highlands and the southern special woredas of SNNPR that obtain a large proportion of their total annual production from the belg crops, are extremely food insecure and the good belg rains are expected to be particularly beneficial to these areas. Belg rains are also important for land preparation and planting of long cycle meher crops, mainly maize and sorghum. Belg rains are also important for flowering and seed setting of coffee, which in addition to its importance at household level for

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010 coffee farmers and those who depend on coffee labor, is also the most important source of foreign exchange earnings for the country. Regeneration of chat, which also fetches significant income for the country and on which millions of people depend for their livelihood in the production and trading, also takes place during the belg season with the belg rains.

Similarly the dominantly pastoral region of Afar and Shinile zone of Somali Region will also benefit from the much needed rains. Some areas in the southern parts of Afar reion and eastern parts of Shinile zone, have already received some unseasonable rains that alleviated the prevailing dryness.

The southern zones of Somali Region, lowlands of Bale and Borena zone of Oromia Region and the crop producing southern parts of SNNP region are currently highly food insecure following poor performance of consecutive seasons. Critical water shortages are reported in these areas with water trucking ongoing in parts of Warder and Afder zones of Somali region. If the performance of the upcoming gu (April to June) rains is below normal, these areas will become extremely food insecure with widespread water shortage problems.

The government and humanitarian partners should provide agricultural support, such as timely provision of appropriate seed for the belg‐dependant parts of the country, so that the households can benefit from the good forecast and have good belg harvest. In the south and southeastern parts of the country, there is a need to maintain water points to capture any rains that are received to alleviate the anticipated water shortage problem after the rainy season.

Markets and trade

January is the month when most bulk cereal purchases Figure 3. Nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa are carried out as this is when fresh stocks from the meher harvest come to the market. It is also the month when cereal prices are at their lowest. This year, prices of cereals in different parts of the country have declined following the normal seasonal pattern. Compared to the long term average however, cereal prices are substantially higher. The nominal retail price of white maize in Addis Ababa for example is 14 percent less than that of last year’s. Compared to the 2005 to 2009 average however, it is 55 percent higher (Figure 3).

Cereal prices are expected to continue to be stable with the normal month to month fluctuations despite Source: FEWS NET/Ethiopia and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). the poor production in the eastern meher producing Graphic: FEWS NET/Ethiopia. parts of the country this year. This is due to reduced Notes: (1) Prices in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; demand from millers (in the normal market) who are 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 12.63342 US cents. now being supplied by the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). The EGTE which is normally the biggest buyer hasn’t started purchasing locally either. EGTE has imported and continues to import large quantities of wheat and supplying to the millers. The absence/shortage of loans from banks that traders normally use to buy cereals in bulk from the market; and also absence of local purchase by donors and NGOs for food distribution is expected to keep prices from increasing rapidly.

The decline in cereal prices is beneficial for poor and very poor farmers, the pastoralists and agro pastoralists and the urban poor, all of whom spend a high proportion of their income on the purchase of food. Prices are however, still at a much higher level compared to the long term average. Unless this is offset by an increase in income, food security of these groups of people will continue to be affected by reduced purchasing power.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

ETHIOPIA Food Security Update February 2010

Update on Gambella

Most of Gambella region is extremely food insecure due to very poor production of maize following the below normal 2009 rains. In addition, people along the major rivers that normally practice river recession farming, could not plant this year due to low river levels. Fishing from ponds, another source of income for parts of the population, was also affected this year. In addition, civil insecurity caused by clan conflicts within the region and across the border with caused displacement. The most affected woredas are Lare, Akobo, Wantawo, Jikawa, Lare, Jor, Gog and Itang.

According to a multi‐agency IDP assessment report released by the Gambella Regional Bureau of Disaster Preparedness and Prevention and Food Security in January 2010, the number of people displaced due to inter‐clan and cross‐border conflicts has increased. The conflicts have also caused loss of livestock, especially among the Nuer who normally keep more animals, poor access to grazing lands, water points and firewood collecting sites, and disruption of schools. Displaced people also don’t have access to their farm land which will impact food security of these people during the next farming season.

There are reports of widespread acute malnutrition although these have not been confirmed by nutrition surveys. Increased school drop outs and distress migration in search of food are also reported. Food aid has been distributed since March 2009, however according to field information, the quantity is insufficient and therefore rations are highly diluted.

UNICEF has set up temporary learning establishment in IDP centers and providing support to students. The provision includes exercise books, school materials and uniforms. Water and sanitation services are the major gaps in the temporary schooling environment and there is a growing concern of likely diseases. Non‐food items (NFIs) were provided to IDPs in Akobo by UNICEF and ZOA while MSF provides health services including in Wantawo. An anti‐malaria campaign has started by the regional health bureau with the support of UNICEF.

Improved food aid deliveries and distributions, appropriate nutrition interventions, addressing the conflict‐triggering issues and the special needs of the IDPs and close monitoring of prices will be crucial to improve the food security situation of the affected populations.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010

Maize is the most widely consumed cereal by the rural poor. Sorghum is generally one of the cheapest cereals. Teff is also very important throughout the country. The most important markets for teff are the large cities including Addis Ababa, , Mekele, and Dire Dawa. Addis Abada is the capital city and Dire Dawa, Mekele, and Jijiga are major towns in the eastern, mainly food insecure, parts of the country. Bahir Dar is a major town in a surplus producing area. Jimma represents a generally food secure surplus area. Shashemene is an assembly, wholesale, and retail market and the main transshipment point for cereals from the south and southwest to the center and east. is an urban center located in the , and is one of the most chronically food insecure parts of the region.

Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners.

Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

ANNEX: Ethiopia Monthly Price Bulletin February 2010

Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii