17 January 2019 | 7:56PM HKT Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK) Undervalued as new level of rental growth approaches; up to Buy Buy Justin Kwok, CFA 0101.HK 12m Price Target: HK$20.00 Price: HK$15.74 Upside: 27.1% +852-2978-0481 |
[email protected] Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. We believe HLP’s resilient fundamentals and pathway to earnings Colin Yao +852-2978-1474 |
[email protected] growth are underappreciated by the market based on current trough Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. valuations due to concerns about the macro environment and the Hangzhou project acquisition last May. We see the stock re-rating as the market begins to factor in HLP’s strong positioning within the industry. We upgrade the stock to Buy, from Neutral, with 27% upside to our revised 12-month target price of HK$20.00, Key Data __________________________________ highlighting three points that we believe create a compelling Market cap: HK$70.7bn / $9.0bn Enterprise value: HK$87.9bn / $11.2bn investment argument. 3m ADTV: HK$62.3mn / $8.0mn Hong Kong Hong Kong Property 1. Internal growth drivers—HLP is about to embark on another M&A Rank: 3 period of active project completions with a substantial increase in GS Forecast ________________________________ 12/17 12/18E 12/19E 12/20E rental floor space in the next two years vs. flat GFA since 2015. In Revenue (HK$ mn) New 11,199.0 9,356.8 9,920.1 9,985.5 our view, this will help drive its rental revenue to a 12% CAGR in Revenue (HK$ mn) Old 11,199.0 9,922.1 9,773.1 9,412.8 EBITDA (HK$ mn) 7,462.0 6,092.7 6,649.8 6,644.2 2018E-2020E (from 4% in 2013-2017).