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Hong Kong Public Opinion Program of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Hong Kong Public Opinion Program of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” a.k.a. “Council Frontline, People’s Choice Survey” Survey Report 2020 9 21 26 Survey Date: 21 to 26 September 2020 2020 9 29 Release Date: 29 September 2020 ( ) ( ) Copyright of this report was generated by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) and opened to the world. HKPOP proactively promotes open data, open technology and the free flow of ideas, knowledge and information. The predecessor of HKPOP was the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “HKPOP” or “POP” in this publication may refer to HKPOP or HKUPOP as the case may be. HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Contents Background ................................................................................................................... 2 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 3 Survey Result ................................................................................................................ 4 Core Findings ........................................................................................................ 5 Reference Findings ............................................................................................... 6 Appendixes ......................................................................................................................... 26 1 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Background 2020 2020 8 25 1 2020 9 4 2 After the Hong Kong SAR Government had decided to postpone the Legislative Council election in 2020, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress immediately decided that the current Legislative Council should continue to perform its duties for not less than one more year. This has led to controversy in the society on whether the incumbent Legislative Council Members should stay. Some Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Camp hope to resolve the controversy by a public opinion survey, and through the Democratic Party they have invited the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) to design and conduct the survey. On 25 August 2020, HKPORI compiled a research proposal for the Democratic Party for open discussion, and proposed a double-authorization cum balanced-threshold system for obtaining mandates from the people (see Appendix 1). After some discussions with the Democratic Party, on 4 September 2020, HKPORI modified its proposal and compiled the “Design and Operation” document for reference by the Democratic Party (see Appendix 2). In gist, HKPORI proposed that for the opinion poll of the reference group of supporters, two-thirds majority of the respondents would be used as the threshold to decide whether to stay or leave; for that of all Hong Kong people, there would be no threshold, but the concept of public opinion referencing would be adopted. It was noted that, when calculating the threshold, those who have no comment would be excluded first, while those who show definite neutral view of “half-half” would be retained. In case both two-thirds thresholds of stay or leave are not met, the councillors at stake would make a decision after considering all survey findings. The Democratic Party adopted the proposal, and also openly pledged that should both thresholds of two-thirds majority not be met, they would reduce the thresholds to simple majority of over one-half. This effectively narrowed the grey area for political deliberation. 2 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Methodology 5 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q5 Q2 3 3 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 2 This is a random telephone survey covering both landline and mobile numbers, with the target sample size set at no less than 2,400. It was conducted in parallel by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) of the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) and the Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Research of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CCPOS), with a 50:50 split. A further equal split between landline and mobile sub-samples are applied in each sample. In terms of questionnaire setting, HKPOP used a questionnaire of 5 survey questions, with 4 questions (Q1, Q2, Q4 and Q5) targeted at half of the sample plus one question (Q3) targeted at the full sample. In other words, each interviewee in effect only answered 3 questions: either Q1 or Q2; Q3 mandatory; and Q4 (if answered Q1) or Q5 (if answered Q2). There were 3 survey questions in the questionnaire of CCPOS, with Q1 and Q2 targeted at half of the sample. Each interviewee in effect only answered 2 questions: either Q1 or Q2; plus Q3. HKPOP adopted an omnibus survey format. In addition to the survey questions mentioned, it also included other survey series like the “WeHongKongers” series, popularity of HKSAR government, social conditions, press freedom and performance series. The questionnaire of the CCPOS was conducted in the form of a separate survey. Regarding telephone numbers sampling, the two research teams first randomly generated their own telephone numbers. CCPOS then removed any duplicated numbers generated by HKPOP, while HKPOP was wholly responsible for the data collation, weighting and analysis of all the data collected. 3 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Survey Result Herewith the contact information and result of this survey: 1 Table 1: Contact Information : 21-26/9/2020 Date of survey : Survey method Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers : 18 Target population Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above : 2,579 ( 1,284 1,295 ) Sample size 2,579 successful cases (including 1,284 landline and 1,295 mobile samples) : 55.9% Effective response rate [1] : 95% +/-2% Standard error Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-2% at 95% conf. level : Weighting method - 2019 Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. [1] 95% 95% 100 95 All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places. 4 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Core Findings 2 Q1/2 ( ) Table 2: Q1/2 Frequency Table (Democrat’s supporter subgroup only) Q1 Date of survey: 21-26/9/2020 / / Excluding those answered “don’t know / hard to say” The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Percentage Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Frequency ( Percentage Percentage Base=738) Frequency ( Frequency ( Cheung and Shiu Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one Base=711) Base=711) year / to resign from their current term? / Very much } / 182 24.7% 182 25.7% support to continue / oppose to resign }Support to continue / } 335 } 47.1% / Somewhat Oppose to resign 153 20.7% 153 21.5% support to continue / oppose to resign Half-half 50 6.8% 50 7.0% 50 7.0% / Somewhat } / 105 14.2% 105 14.7% oppose to continue / support to resign }Oppose to continue / } 326 } 45.8% / Very much Support to resign 221 30.0% 221 31.1% oppose to continue / support to resign / Don’t know / Hard to say 27 3.7% / / / / Total 738 100.0% 711 100.0% 711 100.0% Refusal 1 5 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Core findings of this survey show that whether setting the mandate benchmark at two-thirds or simple majority of over one-half, the threshold is not met so there is no clear mandate from the supporters and the councillors concerned have to make their political decisions. The reference findings in the remaining part of this report may be useful for their deliberation. 6 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report Reference Findings 3 Q1/2 ( ) Table 3: Q1/2 Frequency Table (All samples) Q1 Date of survey: 21-26/9/2020 / / Excluding those answered “don’t know / hard to say” The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Percentage Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Frequency ( Percentage Percentage Base=2,560) Frequency ( Frequency ( Cheung and Shiu Ka-chun to continue their
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