Hong Kong Public Opinion Program of Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute

“Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” a.k.a. “Council Frontline, People’s Choice Survey”

Survey Report

2020 9 21 26 Survey Date: 21 to 26 September 2020

2020 9 29 Release Date: 29 September 2020

( ) ( ) Copyright of this report was generated by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) and opened to the world. HKPOP proactively promotes open data, open technology and the free flow of ideas, knowledge and information. The predecessor of HKPOP was the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “HKPOP” or “POP” in this publication may refer to HKPOP or HKUPOP as the case may be.

HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Contents

Background ...... 2

Methodology ...... 3

Survey Result ...... 4

Core Findings ...... 5

Reference Findings ...... 6

Appendixes ...... 26

1 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Background

2020

2020 8 25 1 2020 9 4 2

After the Hong Kong SAR Government had decided to postpone the Legislative Council election in 2020, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress immediately decided that the current Legislative Council should continue to perform its duties for not less than one more year. This has led to controversy in the society on whether the incumbent Legislative Council Members should stay. Some Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Camp hope to resolve the controversy by a public opinion survey, and through the Democratic Party they have invited the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) to design and conduct the survey.

On 25 August 2020, HKPORI compiled a research proposal for the Democratic Party for open discussion, and proposed a double-authorization cum balanced-threshold system for obtaining mandates from the people (see Appendix 1). After some discussions with the Democratic Party, on 4 September 2020, HKPORI modified its proposal and compiled the “Design and Operation” document for reference by the Democratic Party (see Appendix 2). In gist, HKPORI proposed that for the opinion poll of the reference group of supporters, two-thirds majority of the respondents would be used as the threshold to decide whether to stay or leave; for that of all Hong Kong people, there would be no threshold, but the concept of public opinion referencing would be adopted. It was noted that, when calculating the threshold, those who have no comment would be excluded first, while those who show definite neutral view of “half-half” would be retained. In case both two-thirds thresholds of stay or leave are not met, the councillors at stake would make a decision after considering all survey findings. The Democratic Party adopted the proposal, and also openly pledged that should both thresholds of two-thirds majority not be met, they would reduce the thresholds to simple majority of over one-half. This effectively narrowed the grey area for political deliberation.

2 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Methodology

5 Q1 Q2 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q5 Q2 3 3 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q3 2

This is a random telephone survey covering both landline and mobile numbers, with the target sample size set at no less than 2,400. It was conducted in parallel by the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) of the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) and the Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Research of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CCPOS), with a 50:50 split. A further equal split between landline and mobile sub-samples are applied in each sample.

In terms of questionnaire setting, HKPOP used a questionnaire of 5 survey questions, with 4 questions (Q1, Q2, Q4 and Q5) targeted at half of the sample plus one question (Q3) targeted at the full sample. In other words, each interviewee in effect only answered 3 questions: either Q1 or Q2; Q3 mandatory; and Q4 (if answered Q1) or Q5 (if answered Q2). There were 3 survey questions in the questionnaire of CCPOS, with Q1 and Q2 targeted at half of the sample. Each interviewee in effect only answered 2 questions: either Q1 or Q2; plus Q3.

HKPOP adopted an omnibus survey format. In addition to the survey questions mentioned, it also included other survey series like the “WeHongKongers” series, popularity of HKSAR government, social conditions, press freedom and performance series. The questionnaire of the CCPOS was conducted in the form of a separate survey.

Regarding telephone numbers sampling, the two research teams first randomly generated their own telephone numbers. CCPOS then removed any duplicated numbers generated by HKPOP, while HKPOP was wholly responsible for the data collation, weighting and analysis of all the data collected.

3 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Survey Result

Herewith the contact information and result of this survey:

1 Table 1: Contact Information

: 21-26/9/2020 Date of survey : Survey method Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers : 18 Target population Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above : 2,579 ( 1,284 1,295 ) Sample size 2,579 successful cases (including 1,284 landline and 1,295 mobile samples) : 55.9% Effective response rate [1] : 95% +/-2% Standard error Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-2% at 95% conf. level : Weighting method - 2019 Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. [1] 95% 95% 100 95 All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places.

4 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Core Findings

2 Q1/2 ( ) Table 2: Q1/2 Frequency Table (Democrat’s supporter subgroup only) Q1 Date of survey: 21-26/9/2020 / / Excluding those answered “don’t know / hard to say” The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Percentage Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Frequency ( Percentage Percentage Base=738) Frequency ( Frequency ( Cheung and Shiu Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one Base=711) Base=711) year / to resign from their current term? / Very much } / 182 24.7% 182 25.7% support to continue / oppose to resign }Support to continue / } 335 } 47.1% / Somewhat Oppose to resign 153 20.7% 153 21.5% support to continue / oppose to resign Half-half 50 6.8% 50 7.0% 50 7.0% / Somewhat } / 105 14.2% 105 14.7% oppose to continue / support to resign }Oppose to continue / } 326 } 45.8% / Very much Support to resign 221 30.0% 221 31.1% oppose to continue / support to resign / Don’t know / Hard to say 27 3.7% / / / / Total 738 100.0% 711 100.0% 711 100.0% Refusal 1

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Core findings of this survey show that whether setting the mandate benchmark at two-thirds or simple majority of over one-half, the threshold is not met so there is no clear mandate from the supporters and the councillors concerned have to make their political decisions. The reference findings in the remaining part of this report may be useful for their deliberation.

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Reference Findings

3 Q1/2 ( ) Table 3: Q1/2 Frequency Table (All samples) Q1 Date of survey: 21-26/9/2020 / / Excluding those answered “don’t know / hard to say” The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Percentage Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Frequency ( Percentage Percentage Base=2,560) Frequency ( Frequency ( Cheung and Shiu Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one Base=2,255) Base=2,255) year / to resign from their current term? / Very much } / 387 15.1% 387 17.2% support to continue / oppose to resign }Support to continue / } 831 } 36.8% / Somewhat Oppose to resign 444 17.3% 444 19.7% support to continue / oppose to resign Half-half 220 8.6% 220 9.7% 220 9.7% / Somewhat } / 345 13.5% 345 15.3% oppose to continue / support to resign }Oppose to continue / } 1,204 } 53.4% / Very much Support to resign 859 33.6% 859 38.1% oppose to continue / support to resign / Don’t know / Hard to say 306 11.9% / / / / Total 2,560 100.0% 2,255 100.0% 2,255 100.0% Refusal 19

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4.1 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.1: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Political Inclination (All samples)

Q1/2 Political Inclination / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Pro-democracy camp Centrist Pro-establishment camp Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 43.9% 35.0% 18.3% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 8.0% 10.6% 9.2% / 48.1% 54.4% 72.5% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 1,068 546 220

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4.2 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.2: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Gender (All samples)

Q1/2 Gender / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Male Female Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 33.9% 39.7% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 8.8% 10.6% / 57.3% 49.7% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 1,095 1,159

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4.3 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.3: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Age Groups (All samples)

Q1/2 ( ) Age Groups (aggregated) / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu 18-29 30-49 50+ Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 34.5% 39.4% 36.2% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 16.4% 9.7% 7.6% / 49.1% 50.8% 56.3% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 370 748 1,095

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4.4 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.4: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Education Attainment (All samples)

Q1/2 ( ) Education Attainment (aggregated) / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Primary or below Secondary Tertiary or above Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 37.2% 34.9% 39.5% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 8.3% 10.2% 9.8% / 54.5% 54.8% 50.7% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 379 1,033 815

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4.5 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.5: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Occupation (All samples)

Q1/2 ( ) Occupation (aggregated) /

The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or Home-makers oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Administrators Clerks and Workers Students Others and service / housewives Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu professionals workers Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 37.9% 37.1% 34.7% 42.0% 41.1% 34.7% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 6.9% 11.9% 9.9% 16.1% 8.2% 9.3% / 55.2% 51.0% 55.4% 41.9% 50.7% 56.0% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 512 552 272 104 227 541

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4.6 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.6: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Registered Voter Status (All samples)

Q1/2 Registered Voter Status / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Yes No Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 36.8% 37.4% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 8.7% 16.5% / 54.4% 46.2% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 1,915 309

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4.7 Q1/2 - 2019 ( ) Table 4.7: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Voted Political Camp in 2019 District Council Election (All samples)

Q1/2 2019 ( ) Vot ed Political Camp in 2019 District Council Election (aggregated) / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Democratic Non-democratic Others Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 43.7% 22.6% 33.0% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 7.7% 8.3% 12.6% / 48.6% 69.1% 54.4% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 1,099 422 281

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4.8 Q1/2 - ( ) Table 4.8: Q1/2 In-depth Analysis – By Social Strata (All samples)

Q1/2 ( ) Social Strata (aggregated) / The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung and Shiu Collectively called Collectively called Collectively called “upper class” “middle class” “lower class” Ka-chun to continue their current term for another one year / to resign from their current term? / 37.4% 38.3% 35.9% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 8.0% 8.4% 11.8% / 54.6% 53.2% 52.3% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 791 637 706

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5 Q4/5 ( ) Table 5: Q4/5 Frequency Table (HKPOP samples)

Date of survey: Q4/5 21-26/9/2020 / / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay Excluding those answered “don’t know / hard to say” or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all Percentage the democratic members to continue their current term for another one Frequency ( Percentage Percentage year / to resign from their current term? Base=1,263) Frequency ( Frequency ( Base=1,125) Base=1,125) / Very much } / 199 15.8% 199 17.7% support to continue / oppose to resign }Support to continue / } 387 } 34.4% / Somewhat Oppose to resign 188 14.9% 188 16.7% support to continue / oppose to resign Half-half 191 15.1% 191 17.0% 191 17.0% / Somewhat } / 144 11.4% 144 12.8% oppose to continue / support to resign }Oppose to continue / } 547 } 48.6% / Very much Support to resign 403 31.9% 403 35.8% oppose to continue / support to resign / Don’t know / Hard to say 137 10.9% / / / / Total 1,263 100.0% 1,125 100.0% 1,125 100.0% Refusal 22

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6 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 6: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Democrat’s supporter (HKPOP samples)

Q3 Q4/5 Please confirm whether you are a supporter of the Democratic Party, / Civic Party, Claudio Mo, Fernando Cheung Cheung or Shiu Ka-chun? Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Yes No to resign from their current term?

/ 45.4% 29.9% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 11.7% 18.1% / 42.9% 52.0% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 318 749

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7.1 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.1: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Political Inclination (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 Political Inclination / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Pro-democracy camp Centrist Pro-establishment camp to resign from their current term?

/ 43.8% 33.5% 17.2% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 13.3% 18.5% 14.0% / 43.0% 48.0% 68.8% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 505 275 134

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7.2 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.2: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Gender (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 Gender / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Male Female to resign from their current term?

/ 32.1% 36.6% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 13.5% 20.3% / 54.4% 43.1% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 551 574

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7.3 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.3: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Age Groups (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 ( ) Age Groups (aggregated) / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / 18-29 30-49 50+ to resign from their current term?

/ 39.0% 34.4% 33.4% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 19.4% 18.6% 15.2% / 41.6% 47.0% 51.4% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 190 377 535

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7.4 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.4: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Education Attainment (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 ( ) Education Attainment (aggregated) / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Primary or below Secondary Tertiary or above to resign from their current term?

/ 33.8% 32.5% 38.2% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 18.1% 17.7% 15.4% / 48.1% 49.8% 46.5% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 191 518 405

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7.5 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.5: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Occupation (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 ( ) / Occupation (aggregated)

Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how Clerks Home- Administrator Others much do you support or oppose all the democratic and service Workers Students makers/house s and workers wives members to continue their current term for another one professionals year / to resign from their current term? / 31.9% 33.7% 31.4% 50.5% 39.1% 33.8% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 15.8% 17.7% 19.1% 12.7% 19.2% 16.5% / 52.2% 48.6% 49.6% 36.7% 41.7% 49.7% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total count 208 306 138 54 116 287

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7.6 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.6: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Registered Voter Status (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 Registered Voter Status / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Yes No to resign from their current term?

/ 34.2% 35.8% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 15.4% 25.7% / 50.4% 38.5% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 935 178

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7.7 Q4/5 - 2019 ( ) Table 7.7: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Voted Political Camp in 2019 District Council Election (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 2019 ( ) Voted Political Camp in 2019 District Council Election (aggregated) / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Democratic Non-democratic Others to resign from their current term?

/ 41.7% 20.0% 30.5% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 13.1% 15.0% 23.5% / 45.2% 65.0% 46.0% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 502 225 152

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7.8 Q4/5 - ( ) Table 7.8: Q4/5 In-depth Analysis – By Social Strata (HKPOP samples)

Q4/5 ( ) Social Strata (aggregated) / Whether you support or oppose some of the democratic members to stay or leave the Legislative Council, how much do you support or oppose all the democratic members to continue their current term for another one year / Collectively called Collectively called Collectively called “upper class” “middle class” “lower class” to resign from their current term?

/ 35.2% 35.7% 34.3% Support to continue / Oppose to resign Half-half 12.4% 16.1% 20.4% / 52.5% 48.2% 45.3% Oppose to continue / Support to resign Weighted Total Count 349 342 373

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Appendixes

1 Appendix 1: Research Proposal

1. 2020

3. 9 6 7 10

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5. ……

7. ……

8. Q1 Q2

a. Q1 AAA BBB CCC …… ……

b. Q2 AAA BBB CCC …… ……

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c. Q3 AAA BBB CCC …… ……

9. 2020 9 21

10.

2020 8 25

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A 601 300 901 67% 38% 53% B 200 300 500 22% 38% 29% 99 200 299 11% 25% 18% 100 200 300 - - - 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% A A A

A 601 200 801 67% 22% 45% B 200 600 800 22% 67% 45% 99 100 199 11% 11% 11% 100 100 200 - - - 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% A A

A 601 50 651 67% 6% 36% B 200 750 950 22% 83% 53% 99 100 199 11% 11% 11% 100 100 200 - - - 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% A B

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A 301 100 401 67% 8% 24% B 100 900 1000 22% 75% 60% 49 200 249 11% 17% 15% 50 300 350 - - - 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100% A B

A 250 100 350 56% 8% 21% B 150 900 1050 33% 75% 64% 50 200 250 11% 17% 15% 50 300 350 - - - 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100% B B

A 250 350 600 56% 29% 36% B 150 650 800 33% 54% 48% 50 200 250 11% 17% 15% 50 300 350 - - - 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100%

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Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute

Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Legislative Councillors

Research Proposal

1. After the Hong Kong SAR government decided to postpone the Legislative Council election in 2020, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress immediately decided that the current Legislative Council would continue to perform its duties for not less than one year, leading to social controversy and the democratic camp’s debate on whether incumbent Legislative Council members should continue to serve on the Council. The Democratic Party hopes that the issue of whether Council members should stay or go could be resolved by a public opinion survey, and it has invited the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) to design and execute the survey.

2. HKPORI welcomes democracy advocates’ proposal to resolve social issues through the democratic process. In the spirit of promoting science and democracy, HKPORI made certain proposals to the Democratic party. However, HKPORI wants to emphasise that public opinion referencing and public mandate are different in concept and nature. A public opinion survey should only be regarded as temporary public opinion referencing at best, and it can in no way replace large scale public mandate.

3. The Legislative Council election originally scheduled for September 6 this year would have been a formal and proper public mandate, and the Democratic Camp’s primaries held in mid-July this year were a public mandate resembling formal voting. However, both mandates were voided by the cancellation of the election by the SAR government. The legitimacy of the Legislative Council which will start its operation in October is therefore questioned. In this vacuum period without a clear mandate, the issue of a speedy resolution of the issue by democratic process is a very tricky, if not impossible, problem.

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4. HKPORI has always been of the view that the democratic process should proceed in a cycle of a three-step process, i.e. public opinion survey, deliberative discussion and public vote. It is a pity that we can only complete the first step in this process this time because of the lack of time. HKPORI earnestly hopes that all those who are willing to be bound by this survey will regard it as an expedient measure under the constraint of time, and that this will help buy time and space for wider and more in-depth public consultation and resolution in the future. Attention must be drawn to the fact that the SAR government seems to have no intention to conduct any Legislative Council by-election in the coming year. If the result of this opinion survey is for Members not to continue to serve on the Council, then it would seem that there will be no need for future surveys and resolution since it will be impossible for Members to rejoin the Council in the absence of a by-election.

5. HKPORI believes that, even if the poll is a short-term solution to the problem, there are still some important issues that need to be resolved in advance, including from whom to seek mandate? Binding which Members? How to set the threshold ...... and so on. HKPORI makes recommendations on each of these issues, but the final decision would be left to the Democratic Party.

6. On the question of seeking mandate, HKPORI suggests that the Democratic Party should ask all legislators who are willing to be bound by survey results to decide beforehand whether to seek mandate from all Hong Kong people, or to limit it to supporters of a particular faction? Or just supporters of individual political parties? Or just supporters of individual Members? Multiple answers allowed. If it is up to HKPORI to decide, it would suggest a double-authorization system such that one channel is open to all citizens, regardless of their differences, in order to promote democracy, while the other channel is open to specific supporters, in order to deal with the issue of re-mandating, matching with the balanced- threshold concept. Please see Annex 1.

7. As for the setting of a threshold, it can be relatively simple: there is no threshold for opinion surveys in the first place, but only a margin of sampling error for determining the sample size. If it is a must to turn public opinion surveys into a

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voting mechanism, HKPORI would reluctantly suggest setting some pre- determined thresholds, like first past the post, more than half, more than two- thirds, more than three-fourths and so on, to be decided by the power-delegator. If the thresholds are to be determined by HKPORI, it will set two balanced thresholds: one for exceeding one-half of all Hong Kong people, and the other for exceeding two-thirds of the reference group. The reference group refers to the supporters of those Legco members who are willing to be bound by the result of the survey. Because the sub-sample size of the reference group would be smaller than the overall sample size, the sampling error would be larger, and the chance of making a wrong judgement is bound to be greater. Therefore, the threshold should be higher. Moreover, the reference group should have a better understanding of the relevant issues, so that it would be easier to reach a consensus. On the other hand, if there is no consensus in the reference group, the Members concerned seems to have a greater responsibility to make his or her own judgment for the reference group.

8. In terms of specific operation, HKPORI suggests the following core questions for the survey (Note: Q1 and Q2 will each account for half of the sample).

8.1. Q1: The current term of the Legislative Council will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose the staying of AAA, BBB, CCC and ...... (i.e. state clearly that they are Members of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, all incumbent directly elected Members of the democratic camp, all incumbent Legislative Councillors of the democratic camp ...... etc. who are willing to accept the bundling of opinion polls) as Legislative Councillors for another one year?

8.2. Q2: The current term of the Legislative Council will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose the resignation of AAA and BBB and CCC and ...... (i.e. state clearly that they are Members of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, all incumbent directly elected Members of the democratic camp, all incumbent Legislative Councillors of the democratic camp ...... etc. who are willing to accept the bundling of opinion polls) from the Legislative Council?

34 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

8.3. Q3: Please confirm whether you are a supporter of AAA or BBB or CCC or ...... (i.e. specify whether you are a supporter of Democratic Party, Civic Party, all incumbent directly elected Members of the democratic camp, all incumbent Legislative Councillors of the democratic camp ...... etc.) (Supporters of Members who are willing to accept a bundle of opinion polls)? (Counted on the date of the survey, assuming being honest)

9. Regarding the sample size, HKPORI proposes to set the sample size at 2,000, with half of them being fixed-line telephone samples, and the other half being mobile telephone samples, with a minimum age limit of 18 years old.

10. HKPORI will design and execute the survey independently according to the terms and conditions of its Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP). In order to further develop our civil society, HKPORI proposes that the Democratic Party will also commission the Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Research of the Chinese University of Hong Kong to conduct surveys simultaneously according to the above design and conditions, with a sample size roughly the same as that of HKPOP. HKPOP will be wholly responsible for the data collation, weighting and analysis of all data collected. Without affecting the core questions, the research teams are free to add other questions to the survey to increase its research value.

August 25, 2020.

35 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Annex 1

Certain possible scenarios under the double-authorization cum balanced-threshold system

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 601 300 901 67% 38% 53% Support B 200 300 500 22% 38% 29% Half-half 99 200 299 11% 25% 18% DK 100 200 300 - - - Total 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: A wins A wins NA A wins

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 601 200 801 67% 22% 45% Support B 200 600 800 22% 67% 45% Half-half 99 100 199 11% 11% 11% DK 100 100 200 - - - Total 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: A wins A wins NA No winner

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 601 50 651 67% 6% 36% Support B 200 750 950 22% 83% 53% Half-half 99 100 199 11% 11% 11% DK 100 100 200 - - - Total 1000 1000 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: Inconclusive, decision deferred A wins NA B wins

36 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Certain possible scenarios under the double-authorization cum balanced-threshold system (cont.)

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 301 100 401 67% 8% 24% Support B 100 900 1000 22% 75% 60% Half-half 49 200 249 11% 17% 15% DK 50 300 350 - - - Total 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: Inconclusive, decision deferred A wins NA B wins

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 250 100 350 56% 8% 21% Support B 150 900 1050 33% 75% 64% Half-half 50 200 250 11% 17% 15% DK 50 300 350 - - - Total 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: B wins No winner NA B wins

Ref group Others Total Ref group Others Total Support A 250 350 600 56% 29% 36% Support B 150 650 800 33% 54% 48% Half-half 50 200 250 11% 17% 15% DK 50 300 350 - - - Total 500 1500 2000 100% 100% 100% Conclusion: Inconclusive, decision deferred No winner NA No winner

37 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Annex 2

Service Policy of HKPOP

n All HKPOP studies shall be published for public consumption preferably as soon as they are completed but in no way longer than 6 months after a study is completed.

n HKPOP shall be fully responsible for the research design, including but not restricted to the sampling method, questionnaire design, fieldwork operation, data analysis, and report writing.

n HKPOP reserves the right to add opinion or demographic questions to a survey study which may not be of interest to the collaborator, provided that such questions are methodologically sound and do not impair the original design.

n HKPOP shall retain the copyright of all the raw data and collated findings gathered from the HKPOP studies, but this right can be shared with the project collaborator any time, and once a study is published, the copyright of the study would be opened to the world.

n Full acknowledgment according to normal citation standards shall be given to HKPOP and the project collaborator in any subsequent publication or re- publication using whole or part of the data collected by HKPOP.

n HKPOP is free to deposit any number of such study reports and raw datasets at any library or data archive in the world after the studies are published.

38 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

2 Appendix 2: Design and Operation

1. 2020

2. 2020 8 25

39 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

7. Q1 Q2

a. [ ]

b. [ ]

c. [ ]

8. 2020 9 21

2020 9 4

40 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute

“Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” a.k.a. “Council Frontline, People’s Choice Survey”

Design and Operation

1. After the Hong Kong SAR Government had decided to postpone the Legislative Council election in 2020, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress immediately decided that the current Legislative Council should continue to perform its duties for not less than one more year. This has led to controversy in the society on whether the incumbent Legislative Council Members should stay. Some Legistative Councillors of the Democratic Camp hope to resolve the controversy by a public opinion survey, and through the Democratic Party they have invited the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) to design and conduct the survey.

2. On August 25, 2020, HKPORI submitted a research proposal to the Democratic Party, which briefly described the difference between public mandate and public opinion referencing, and proposed two different sets of voting thresholds along the two different concepts, collectively known as the “dual mandate cum balanced threshold system”, details of which are not to be repeated here.

3. After consulting other councillors of the Democratic Camp, the Democratic Party adopted some but not all of the recommendations of HKPORI. In gist, for the opinion poll of the reference group of supporters, two-thirds majority of the respondents would be used as the threshold to decide whether to stay or leave; for that of all Hong Kong people, there will be no threshold, but the concept of public opinion referencing will be adopted. HKPORI terms this as a “mandate plus referencing system”.

41 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

4. It should be noted that, when calculating the threshold, those who have no comment will be excluded first, while those who show definite neutral view of “half-half” will be retained. In case both two-thirds thresholds of stay or leave are not met, the councillors at stake would make a decision after considering all survey findings.

5. HKPORI welcomes councillors of the Democratic Camp to resolve civil issues through a democratic process. Although public opinion polls cannot replace the function of large-scale votings in granting mandates, and the decision is obviously more anchored on the opinions of the support groups, given the shortage of time and resources, the method is still reasonable, although not ideal.

6. HKPORI stresses once again that the democratic process should proceed in a continuous, cyclic manner on the basis of “public opinion trilogy”: public opinion survey, deliberations and civil referendums. HKPORI earnestly hoped that all those who are willing to be bound by the survey results will regard this survey as an interim measure, paving way for wider and more in-depth public consultation and votings in the future.

7. In terms of specific operation, HKPORI intends to use the following three “voting questions” and a number of analytical questions (note: Q1 and Q2 will each account for half of the sample and will be placed at the beginning of the questionnaire).

Q1. [Tentative] The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo and Fernando Cheung to continue their current term for another one year? (Interviewers to probe the degree of support or opposition)

Q2. [Tentative] The current term of the LegCo will continue to operate for at least one more year. How much do you support or oppose the resignation of all the Legislative Councillors of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo and Fernando Cheung from their current term? (Interviewers to probe the degree of support or opposition)

42 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Q3. [Tentative] Please confirm whether you are a supporter of the Democratic Party, Civic Party, Claudio Mo or Fernando Cheung?

8. Regarding the sample size, HKPORI has decided to set it at 2,000, with half of them being landline telephone samples and half being mobile telephone samples, with a minimum age of 18 years old. The survey is expected to begin on September 21, 2020.

9. HKPORI intends to work in parallel with the Centre for Communication and Public Opinion Research of the Chinese University of Hong Kong to conduct the survey, with a 50:50 split, and a further split of 50:50 between landline and mobile phone sub-samples in each sample. HKPORI will be wholly responsible for the data collation, weighting and analysis of all the data collected.

September 4, 2020

43 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

3 Appendix 3: Survey Questionnaire from CCPOS

2020 10

d 29942894( ) 39431790( )

( ) 18

1 1 1

/ / 18 1. 2. 18

DM1. 1. 2.

44 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Q1 Q2 (Q1 Q2 )

Q1.

1. ( Q3) 2. ( Q3) 3. ( Q3) 4. ( Q3) 5. ( Q3) 6. / ( Q3) 7. ( Q3)

Q2.

1. ( Q3) 2. ( Q3) 3. ( Q3) 4. ( Q3) 5. ( Q3) 6. / ( Q3) 7. ( Q3)

Q3.

1. 2. 3. / 4.

45 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

‧

DM3. ______ 99.

DM3a. 1. 18 – 19 2. 20-24 3. 25-29 4. 30-34 5. 35-39 6. 40-44 7. 45-49 8. 50-54 9. 55-59 10. 60-64 11. 65-69 12. 70 13.

DM4.

1. 2. 3. /DSE/ 4. / / 5. / 6.

DM5.

/ /Freelance/ / 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. / 6. 46 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

7. / / 8. ( ) 9.

DM7a. 2019 1. 2. [ DM8] 3. [ DM8]

DM7b. 2019 2 1. 2. 3. / 4. / 5. 6.

DM8. 4 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ______7. 8.

DM14. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

47 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[R1] 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. /

[R2] 1. ( ): ______2.

48 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

4 Appendix 4: Survey Questionnaire from HKPOP of HKPORI

2020 9 21

X D

[S1] / >>

[S2] >> >> xxxx-xxxx

[S3] xxxx-xxxx

[S4] <%% TelePhone %%> >>

49 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[ S5 S6] [ S7]

[S5] 18

%%ADDITIONAL BOX%% --S:2:20 >> >>

[S6] X

- >> S8 - >> S8 - >> - >>

[S7] 18 >>

[S8] Q1 Q3 >> Q1 Q2 Q3 >> Q2

[Q1]

>> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3

50 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

/ >> Q3 >> Q3

[Q2]

>> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3 >> Q3 / >> Q3 >> Q3

[Q3]

[Q4]

>> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND / >> DPEND >> DPEND

[Q5]

>> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND >> DPEND / >> DPEND >> DPEND

51 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[Q6] 0 100 50 ( : )

____ /

[Q7]

[9 21 24 ]

[Q8] 6,000

[9 21 24 ]

[Q9]

52 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[Q10]

[9 21 24 ]

[Q11-13] ....

[9 25 ]

[Q8]

53 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[Q9]

[Q10] ( )

[Q11] ( )

[Q12]

[Q13] 0 10 10 5 0

____

54 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[DM1]

[DM3]

_____

[DM3a]

18-19 20-24 … 60-64 65-69 70

[DM4]

/ DSE / / / /

[DM5] / / Freelance / /

55 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

/ / / / / Freelance / /

[DM7a] 2019

>> [DM8] >> [DM8]

[DM7b] 2019 2

/ /

[DM8] 4

______

56 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[DM14] 5

[DM9]

( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( )

[DM10]

( )

[DM11] ( )

( ) ( ) ( / ) ( )

[DM12] ( )

/ / /

57 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

[DM13]

[DM15] ( ) 2 3 ( )

[R1]

[R2]

( ): ______

58 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

5 Appendix 5: Sample distribution by date and questionnaire modules

Date Landline samples Mobile samples Total

21/9 117 221 338 22/9 304 271 575 23/9 307 216 523 24/9 245 266 511 25/9 214 216 430 26/9 97 105 202 Total 1,284 1,295 2,579

HKPOP CCPOS Questionnaire Total modules Landline Mobile Landline samples Mobile samples samples samples

1 Qre 1 318 319 325 319 1,281 [Q1, Q3, Q4]

2 Qre 2 319 329 322 328 1,298 [Q2, Q3, Q5]

Total 637 648 647 647 2,579

59 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

6 Appendix 6: Detailed Contact Information

Frequency Percentage 26,103 31.3% Respondents’ ineligibility confirmed Fax/data line 1,373 1.6% Invalid number 22,259 26.7% Call-forwarding/Mobile/Pager 369 0.4% Non-residential/mobile number 1,108 1.3% Language problem 597 0.7% No eligible respondents 371 0.4% Special Technological Circumstances 26 <0.1%

54,092 64.8% Respondents’ eligibility not confirmed Always busy 5,487 6.6% No answer 20,800 24.9% Answering device 7,540 9.0% Call-blocking 76 0.1% Interview terminated before the screening 141 0.2% question - Appointment date beyond the end of the fieldwork period – Respondents’ 19,903 23.9% ineligibility not confirmed Others 145 0.2%

665 0.8% Respondents’ eligibility confirmed, but failed to complete the interview

Household-level refusal 10 0.0% Known respondent refusal 1 0.0% - Appointment date beyond the 161 0.2% end of the fieldwork period – Respondents’ eligibility confirmed Partial interview 333 0.4% Miscellaneous 160 0.2%

Successful cases 2,579 3.1% Total 83,439 100.0%

60 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

Calculation of effective response rate:

Effective response rate = + + ^ x100.0% + # Successful cases = Successful cases + Incomplete cases* + Refusal cases by eligible respondents^ x100.0% + Projected refusal cases by eligible respondents #

2,579 = 2,579 + 333 + 11 +1,692 x 100.0% = 55.9%

61 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

7 Appendix 7: Quality Control Information

2,597 No. of cases before final quality checking 12 No. of cases eliminated by general QC procedures 6 No. of cases eliminated by internal consistency checks 2,579 Final no. of successful cases

62 HKPOP “Opinion Survey on the Staying or Resignation of Democratic Camp Legislative Councillors” Survey Report

8 Appendix 8: Demographic Profile of Respondents

Gender