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Adaptive Capacity of Islands of the Maldives to Climate Change

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Adaptive Capacity of Islands of the Maldives to Climate Change ResearchOnline@JCU This file is part of the following work: Mohamed, Ibrahim (2018) Adaptive capacity of islands of the Maldives to climate change. PhD Thesis, James Cook University. Access to this file is available from: https://doi.org/10.25903/fnym%2Dnr79 Copyright © 2018 Ibrahim Mohamed. The author has certified to JCU that they have made a reasonable effort to gain permission and acknowledge the owners of any third party copyright material included in this document. If you believe that this is not the case, please email [email protected] Adaptive Capacity of Islands of the Maldives to Climate Change Ibrahim Mohamed Master of Applied Science in Protected Area Management Bachelor of Science (Biology and Chemistry) A thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the James Cook University in November 2018 College of Science and Engineering To my love, Aisha, and our island princess, Balqees i Acknowledgements To my dearest love, Aisha, for the love and inspiration, for all the tears and long waits, for being my companion and for always being patient. Thank you for sacrificing so much and giving me unconditional love, and sincere support and prayers throughout this journey. NO words can thank you enough. For my loving daughter, Balqees, who made life enjoyable even during the hardest times. The hugs when I leave to go to University and the waiting for bed time stories made every day special. I hope you will soon understand why Daddy needed to spend a lot of time at Uni. I would like to thank the communities of Ukulhas, Bodufolhudhoo, Hanimaadhoo, Vilufushi and Fuvahmulah islands, and the people who took part in my research and assisted in many ways. I would like to mention Shaukath, Salaam, Nasih and Mohamed for their assistance. Also, I thank the Island Councils of these islands for their support. I also would like to extend my thanks to Ministry of Environment and Energy and Climate Change Department and staff and colleagues. My supervisors: David King and Alison Cottrell, thank you for the trust, support, guidance, and for the significant contributions to my thesis. Thanks also to Kevin Parnell for his guidance during the initial stages of my PhD. I would like to acknowledge the support of College of Science and Engineering, and the admin staff for their kind support. I also recognise the support of department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Commonwealth Government of Australia and the Australia awards team. I also take this occasion to mention Ali Najeeb for inspiring me, by setting an example for me, and for supporting me like a brother. To my mum, Hawwa Hassan, and dad, Mohamed Shaugee, for their immense efforts to educate me and my siblings. To my younger siblings who always made me feel so special. To my elder siblings, my maternal uncles and aunts, and my paternal uncles and aunts for their encouragement. Many thanks to my Uncle Ali Wafir for his wisdom and advice as a mentor. A special thanks to my mum in-law for being so patient and kind to let her daughter to accompany me, far away from the family. Thanks to all my in-laws for their support to me and our little family. Teimoor for the advice and great company during the tea and coffee breaks. Hassan Emaan for helping me visualise my research in a beautiful picture. David and Suri for being our family of Townsville. Gordon, Elaine and Rory for the special times. To Peter and Ladta for the good company. To Graeme for the prayers and wisdom. To the family of Paheeratna for our everlasting friendship. I’m grateful for My colleagues from EPA, and MEE, especially Mr. Zahir (MZ) for being my mentor and Mr. Moosa Jameel for his assistance and support. I like to thank my friends in academia, Icha, Teimoor, Nabeeh, Rifaee, Monica and Pranavan, Rie, Taka, Shumais, Jenny and several others whom cannot be listed in this space. Special thanks to Dr. Venkat Jee. Thank you to all my friends and my whole family who have helped me in so many ways. To my mum … thank you for your prayers, sacrifice and love! With God’s grace I have finally made it! ii Statement of contribution of others Thesis supervision and editorial support: • Associate Professor David King • Associate Professor Alison Cottrell Additional analytical and editorial support: • Dr. Putu Liza Mustika • Dr. Venkat Vangaveti • Dr. Takahiro Shimada • Dr. Rie Hagihara • Dr. Monica Gratani • Dr. Jennifer Atherton Research funding: • Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of Commonwealth Government of Australia through, Australia Awards Maldives office, full PhD scholarship and all academic related support. • College of Science and Engineering of James Cook University provided a write-up grant. Research assistance during data collection: • Mr. Ahmed Murutaza, Director General, Ministry of Environment and Energy iii Abstract In today’s world, small islands are exposed to unprecedented impacts of global climate change. The ability of small islands to adjust and cope with these impacts is based on a number of socio-ecological parameters. Research on adaptive capacity has gained momentum within the last decade, and opted assets-based theories, correlating adaptive capacity to utilisation of available opportunities and resources. While such methodologies have major limitations, there is a dearth of studies on adaptive capacity of small islands at the frontier of global climate change. The small island nations are threatened with loss of culture and disruptions to livelihoods, as well as ability to support human habitation from the predicted future effects of climate change. This thesis provides information on this life and cultural threatening issues by identifying the potential for, and limits to, climate change adaptive capacity in the islands of the Maldives through a lens of islandness. This thesis employed a multidisciplinary theoretical framework and contributed to a holistic understanding of adaptive capacity of small islands. The study utilised theory of islandness from an epistemological perspective of pragmatism. The concurrent mixed methods approach, based on analogue comparative case study methodology, involved both constructivist and positivist approaches. The study examined five case study islands from the Maldives and triangulated data obtained from document analysis, participatory climate change adaptation appraisal, stakeholder interviews, surveys, and spatial analysis of biogeophysical characteristics. The results of this study demonstrated that adaptive capacity of islands is a predicament of the biogeophysical characteristics, socio-politics and governance, socio-cultural, and socio- economic factors. The analyses revealed that: (1) the most critical influence on adaptive capacity is from biogeophysical characteristics of islands, followed by socio-cognitive aspects related to belief efficacy of islanders; (2) at a household level, assets, social organisation and flexibility contributed significantly to adaptive capacity; (3) the islands are currently approaching their adaptive capacity thresholds, owing to non-linearity of responses of biogeophysical features of islands to ongoing climate change impacts, especially increases in temperature, sea level rise and changes in rainfall; (4) islands at the edge of crossing the adaptive capacity thresholds require engineered transformative adaptation; and (5) transformation of adaptive capacity into adaptive actions requires empowerment of islanders, iv democratisation of institutions, and strategic planning of hard and soft adaptation measures within an island context and scale. Consequently, encoding and decoding of adaptive capacity from an island epistemological view defines what socioecological aspects, and by which strategies, adaptation can be mobilised and enhanced. Emergent findings indicative of future research includes incorporating ethnography with phenomenology in the study of adaptive capacity and refining the methods used in data collection. Additionally, the present research confirmed that an adaptive capacity index does not translate how the adaptive capacity can be mobilised in to action in islands, and is not significant. The results of this thesis offer significant contribution for policy makers and adaptation practitioners on how climate change policies and strategies need to commensurate with the context of the dynamic socio-ecological system of the islands. The present study also offers an insight of strengths, limitations and challenges on islands in adapting to future climate change. v Contents Acknowledgements ...................................................................................................................... ii Statement of contribution of others ................................................................................................iii Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... iv List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. xi List of Figures .............................................................................................................................xii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction to the study ...................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Study Background ..............................................................................................................
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