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The Socio-Economic Impacts of Energy Transition in Europe the Socio-Economic Impacts of Energy Transition in Europe Table of Contents

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The Socio-Economic Impacts of Energy Transition in Europe the Socio-Economic Impacts of Energy Transition in Europe Table of Contents The socio-economic impacts of energy transition in Europe The socio-economic impacts of energy transition in Europe Table of contents Report navigability Preface 8 This version of “Just E-Volution 2030” is fully navigable. While reading the report, you can Contributions from the Scientific Committee 14 move from one part to another by clicking on the navigation icons, on the header’s elements or by The study’s ten key findings 24 clicking on the contents of the indexes. Executive Summary 30 Navigation icons Part 1 The reference context of energy transition in Europe 46 Back to Table of contents 1.1 The policy framework empowering energy transition 50 Back to Last page visited 1.1.1 The international and European policy targets 50 1.1.2 The transposition into Italian, Spanish and Romanian 55 Fully navigable contents climate and energy plans ❚ Table of contents 1.2 The socio-economic context favouring energy transition 68 ❚ Table of figures about countries of interest: Italy, Spain and Romania Part 2 The role of electricity towards the transition 78 ❚ Header of each page of the report 2.1 The contribution of the electric carrier for energy transition 82 2.1.1 The role of electrification in decarbonizing the economy 86 and improving air quality 2.1.2 The positive impact of electrification on noise pollution 88 2.1.3 The opportunity to improve resilience of the energy system 90 Work successfully with Acrobar Reader through electric carrier 2.1.4 The efficiency gains enabled by the electric carrier 92 2.1.5 The virtuous relationship between the electric carrier 94 and digitalization 2.1.6 Innovation in lifestyles and industrial processes unleashed 97 by electrification 2.1.7 The electric carrier’s support towards the Circular Economy 99 2.2 Complementary paths to energy transition 102 Part 3 An innovative assessment model for socio-economic 106 impacts of energy transition in Europe, with a focus on Italy, Spain and Romania 3.1 The methodology for the assessment of socio-economic 110 impacts of energy transition 3.2 The effect of energy transition on industrial production 131 3.3 The effect of energy transition on employment 137 3.4 The effect of energy transition on air quality 144 3.4.1 The impact assessment of energy transition on air quality 145 3.4.2 The impact assessment of energy transition on human health 150 and cost saving Part 4 Policy proposals and recommendations to make the energy 154 transition “just for all” 4.1 Unfolding benefits of energy transition along several 158 dimensions 4.2 Socio-economic challenges of energy transition emerging 162 from the assessment model 4.2.1 Avoiding the loss in industrial competitiveness 163 4.2.2 Avoiding negative distributive effects across different 168 socio-economic dimensions 4.3 Policy proposals to manage the transition, making it “just for all” 176 Bibliography 194 Table of figures about countries of interest: 202 Italy, Spain and Romania 7 Colophon Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 8 This study was elaborated by The European House – Ambrosetti Juan José Alba Rios Paolo Falcioni for Enel and Enel Foundation. Head of Regulation Iberia, Endesa Director General, APPLiA – Home Appliance Europe Daniele Andreoli Gianna Fracassi The research study has foreseen the participation Head of Flexibility Solutions, Enel X Segretario Generale, Confederazione Generale Italiana of an Advisory Board composed by: Chiara Dalla Chiesa del Lavoro – CGIL Francesco Starace Head of strategic analysis and portfolio optimization, Enel X Fabio Inzoli Chief Executive Officer and General Manager, Enel Daniel Duma Head of Department of Energy, Politecnico di Milano Carlo Papa Sustainability and Institutional Affairs, Enel Romania Constantin Isac Director, Enel Foundation Luca Meini President, UNTRR - Uniunea Naţională a Transportatorilor Rutieri din România Simone Mori Head of Circular Economy – Innovation and Sustainability, Enel Head of Europe and Euro-Mediterranean Affairs, Enel Alessio Menegazzo Michael Liebreich Founder and Senior Contributor, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Valerio De Molli Head of Institutional Affairs and Sustainability, Enel Romania Managing Partner and Chief Executive Officer, Emanuela Sartori Artur Lorkowski The European House – Ambrosetti Head of Market Analysis and Competitors, Enel X Special Envoy on Climate of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Poland; member of the Polish Presidency Team, COP24 Ion Lungu The study has benefitted also of a Scientific Committee The European House – Ambrosetti working group Chairman AFEER – Association of electricity suppliers in Romania composed by: has been comprised of: Paola Mazzucchelli Enrico Giovannini Lorenzo Tavazzi Secretary General, EUREC – European Renewable Energy Professor of Economics and Statistics, Università di Roma Associate Partner and Head of Scenarios and Intelligence Research Centre «Tor Vergata»; Spokesperson, Alleanza Italiana per lo Sviluppo Department, Project Leader Sostenibile – ASviS; former Chairman, ISTAT and Minister of Zoltan Nagy Benedetta Brioschi Vicepresident, Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority Labour and Social Policies Consultant, Project Coordinator Michal Kurtyka Franck Néel Alessandro Viviani President, Oil & Gas Employers’ Federation, Romania State Secretary, Ministry of Environment – Poland; President Consultant COP24 Raffaele Petriccione Francesco Galletti Director General, DG CLIMA – European Commission Adair Turner Analyst Chairman, Energy Transitions Commission; former Chair, United Riccardo Sanna Kingdom Climate Change Committee Arianna Landi Coordinatore dell’Area Politiche di Sviluppo, Confederazione Analyst Generale Italiana del Lavoro – CGIL Nicolò Serpella Special thanks to: Antonio Sileo Analyst Research Fellow, IEFE – Bocconi University Fatih Birol Ines Lundra Executive Director, International Energy Agency Gaetano Thorel Assistant CEO, Groupe PSA Italia Laszlo Varro Chief Economist, International Energy Agency Roberto Vavassori We would like to thank the following for their valuable Business Director, Development and Marketing, Brembo; Szilvia Doczi contributions and suggestions: Chairman, CLEPA – European Association of Automotive Energy Policy Expert, International Energy Agency Suppliers Joaquín González-Blas Sánchez Energy Manager, Alcoa, Spain Fernando Ferrando Vitales President, Fundación Renovables The following have contributed to the research on behalf of Enel Dumitru Chirita and Enel Foundation: Chairman, ANRE – Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority Aurelio Ramirez Zarzosa President, Green Building Council Spain Daniele Agostini Benjamin Denis Head of Energy and Low Carbon Policies, Enel Advisor, European Trade Union Confederation Giuseppe Montesano Vladimír Dlouhý The contents of this report refer exclusively to the analysis and Deputy Director, Enel Foundation President, Czech Chamber of Commerce and International research carried out by The European House – Ambrosetti and Mariano Morazzo Advisor, Goldman Sachs; former Ministry of Industry and Trade, represent its opinion which may not coincide with the opinions Head of Climate Change and Renewable Energy Policies, Enel Czech Republic and viewpoints of the individuals interviewed. Mirko Armiento Christophe Dridi Senior Researcher, Enel Foundation General Manager, Dacia Automobile João Duarte Radu Dudau Deputy Director, Enel Foundation Co-founder and Director, EPG – Energy Policy Group 9 Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Part 4 10 Preface The new President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, We need to have the same ambition and vision demonstrated in designing said in her speech to the European Parliament: “what is good for the planet these energy and climate policies, to ensure that the transition to a carbon- must also be good for our citizens and our regions”. The need to act quickly free economy is truly sustainable and inclusive. The transition to a clean to combat climate change, by decarbonizing our economy, grows more economy will bring net benefits to the Italian system, both in terms of wealth urgent every day; it is a clear goal and one toward which policy-makers and and job creation, however the sectors and regions with traditionally higher businesses are focusing their efforts. However, though we all agree on the carbon emissions will need support during this transition. This study, Just goal, we are becoming more and more aware that the starting points and E-volution 2030, certainly deserves credit for analyzing the changes taking Francesco Starace speed differ from country to country. This is a fact that we have in front of us place and suggesting to the policy-makers in Brussels and in the Member CHIEF EXECUTIVE every day, and one that has to be taken into account. States a roadmap of bold measures that can facilitate the transition. As seen OFFICER AND GENERAL in the report, this transition will lead to the creation of new jobs and new MANAGER, ENEL Decarbonization is a great opportunity to modernize the European professions thanks to new long-term investments. According to the study, economy, revitalize the industrial sector and ensure sustainable, lasting by 2030, thanks to energy transition, the economic value of the electricity growth. Technological progress has shown us that the reduction of sector in the different scenarios could grow at a European level from €113 emissions is technically feasible and economically advantageous. It is to €145 billion (with Italy growing from €14 to €23 billion), while employment achieved through the “energy transition”: the gradual replacement of fossil could increase
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