1 Thomaes, A., Kervyn, T. & Maes, D 2008. Applying species 2 distribution modelling for the conservation of the threatened 3 saproxylic Stag Beetle (Lucanus cervus). Biological conservation, 4 141: 1400-1410 5 Authors a b c 6 Arno THOMAES , Thierry KERVYN & Dirk MAES 7 Affiliations a 8 Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Gaverstraat 4, B-9500 9 Geraardsbergen, Belgium, email:
[email protected] b 10 Directorate General for Nature Resources and Environment (DGRNE), Avenue Prince 11 de Liège 15, B-5100 Jambes, Belgium,
[email protected] c 12 Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Kliniekstraat 25, B-1070 Brussels, 13 Belgium,
[email protected] 14 *Full address for correspondence 15 Dirk MAES, Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Kliniekstraat 25, B-1070 16 Brussels, Belgium, Tel. +32 2 558 18 37; fax +32 2 558 18 05;
[email protected] 17 18 Abstract 19 Despite its size and attractiveness, many Lucanus cervus sites remain undetected in 20 NW Europe because of its short flight period and its nocturnal activity. Therefore, 21 present-day designated conservation areas for L. cervus are probably insufficient for a 22 sustainable conservation of the species. We applied eight species distribution 23 modelling techniques (Artificial Neural Networks, Classification Tree Analysis, 24 Generalised Additive Models, Generalised Boosting Models, Generalised Linear 25 Models, Mixture Discriminant Analysis, Multiple Adaptive Regression Splines and 26 Random Forests) to predict the distribution of L. cervus in Belgium using ten randomly 27 generated calibration and evaluation sets. We used AUC, sensitivity (% correctly 28 predicted presences in the evaluation set) and specificity (% correctly predicted 29 absences in the evaluation set) and Kappa statistics to compare model performances.