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Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

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Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Nepal Development Research Institute January 2013 NDRI Disaster Risk Reduction And Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Nepal Development Research Institute January 2013 Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal This publication is a product of research on "Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Koshi River Basin, Nepal” carried out by Nepal Development Research Institute with the financial support of Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and global change SysTem for Analysis Research and Training (START) from June 2012 to December 2013. Study Team Investigators Principal Investigator: Dr. Laxmi P. Devkota, NDRI Co-Investigator: Dr. Manjeshowri Singh, NDRI Co-Investigator: Dr. Sunil Babu Shrestha, NDRI Co-Investigator: Dr. Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Kathmandu University, Nepal Research Associates Mr. Dibesh Shrestha: NDRI Mr. Dhiraj Gyawali: NDRI Ms. Anita Khadka: NDRI Mr. Pallav Shrestha: NDRI Research Students Ms. Surya N. Shrestha: Institute of Engineering, Tribhuwan University, Nepal Ms. Gunjan Silwal: Central Department of Environmental Science, Tribhuwan University, Nepal Mr. Jeevan Chhetri: College of Applied Sciences, Tribhuwan University, Nepal Mr. Mahesh Chaulagain: Nepal Engineering College, Pokhara Universtiy, Nepal Ms. Rekha Uprety: Central Department of Sociology, Tribhuwan University, Nepal Steering Committee Coordinator Dr. Divas B. Basnyat: Former Executive Director, NDRI, Nepal Co-Coordinator Dr. Jaya K. Gurung: Executive Director, NDRI, Nepal Members: Prof. Ram Manohar Shrestha: Professor Emeritus Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand Dr. Madan Lall Shrestha: Academician, Nepal Academy of Science and Technology, Nepal Dr. Gun Nidhi Paudel: Water Resources Expert, Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI), Bangladesh Dr. Krishna Pahari: Natural Resources Management Expert, UN World Food Programme Mr. Keshav Dhoj Adhikari: Joint-Secretary, Ministry of Energy, Government of Nepal Mr. Gauri S. Bassi: Deputy Director General, Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention, Government of Nepal Member-Secretary Dr. Laxmi P. Devkota: Principal Investigator of the Study Publisher: Nepal Development Research Institute Shree Durbar Tole, Pulchowk, Lalitpur GPO Box: 8975, EPC 2201, Kathmandu, Nepal Telephone: +977-1-5537362, 5554975 Fax: +977-1- 5537362 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.ndri.org.np Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Abstract Climate change impacts especially on hydro-meteorological regime was carried out in two steps, namely hydro-meteorological diagnostics and modeling. Impact of climate change on snowmelt runoff generation was assessed by Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) and that on flow and sediment yield was made by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Hydraulic simulation with HEC-RAS for flood inundation mapping, dam and embankment breaching were also successfully carried out. The simulation result based on two different projected data (ECHAM and HadCM3) showed changes in extreme values of rainfall and discharge, shifting of peak rainfall and runoff patterns and effect of increased temperature on snow melt phenomena. Vulnerability assessment was carried out considering demographic, economic, social, degree of preparedness and recovery capacity indicators. Policy recommendations were made to improve the existing government policies for flood disaster reduction and climate change adaptation i.e. need of revisiting of design standards/values for water resources development works to safely dispose the extreme floods and watershed management to reduce the sediment inflow. Awareness building of stakeholders was made through workshops and seminars. Training of new generation on the application of advanced technology and tools was done by involving four research associates and five Master Level thesis students. Page | i Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Project Information Principal Investigator: Dr. Laxmi P. Devkota Contact Details: Address: Nepal Development Research Institute Shree Durbar Tole, Pulchowk, Lalitpur GPO Box 8975, EPC 2201, Kathmandu NEPAL Telephone: +977-1-5554975, 5537362 Email: [email protected] Awarded Total Amount of START Fund US$ 110,000 Duration of the Study 1 June 2012 - 31 December 2013 Page | ii Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Acknowledgement Nepal is one of the most disaster prone countries in the world which has been suffering from recurring natural hazards causing a heavy annual loss of lives and properties. The climate change phenomenon is going to impact the hydrological regime of the country, placing the country in additional stress especially in terms of flood risk. Design of hydraulic structures such as dams and embankments on the basis of the analysis of historical hydrological data is simply not a good design in face of climate change. To assess the impact of climate change on water resources development works in Koshi River Basin due to increased variation of extreme hydrological events and to propose adaptation measures and policy innovations for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptations, a study on "Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Koshi River Basin of Nepal was carried out by Nepal Development Research Institute (NDRI). At the outset I would to thank Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) and SysTem for Analysis Research and Training (START) for the financial support to conduct this research. At this moment, I would like to remember and acknowledge Ms. Elizabeth Colebourn, CDKN Regional Director and Mr. Ram Chandra Khanal, Country Representative of CDKN for their inspiration to carry out this study. I, also, would like to thank Ms Sarah Schweizer of START for her good coordination between CDKN and NDRI. I would like to acknowledge with my appreciation all the steering committee members for their invaluable suggestions and comments for the successful completion of this study. I, especially, would like to thank Dr. Divas B. Basnet, former Executive Director and coordinator of the steering committee for his suggestions and input on various technical matters of the study which help to bring the quality of research to this level. I am, really, grateful to Mr. Yuba Raj Bhushal, Member Secretary of National Palnning Commission, Government of Nepal for his encouragement to carry out this study and his continuous support of various levels during the whole study period. My special thanks goes to Dr. Jaya Kumar Gurung, Eexecutive Director of NDRI for his support on overall administrative part. Similarly, I would like to remember all NDRI staff and member for their support, direct or indirect. I, especially, thank Ms. Roopa Bhandari, Finance and Admin Officer of NDRI for logistics support and Ms. Sona Sakya, Research Associate of NDRI for her helps as per the need. I thank all the enumerators who did field survey and data analysit Rajiv Ghimire for SPSS analyis. My gratitude goes to local farmers, community people, all the workshop participants and institutions such as DDC, VDC and other related organization of Sunsari and Saptari districts for their kindness and great support during the workshop and field survey. I am grateful to my Co-investigators Dr. Manjeshwori Singh for her contributions on socio-economic vulnerability assessment, Dr. Sunil B. Shrestha for his contribution on disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation policy and strategy issues and Dr. Rijan B. Kayastha for his contributions on Snowmelt Runoff Modeling. I take this opportunity to express my sincere thanks to Research Associates of this project Mr. Dibesh Shrestha, Mr. Dhiraj Raj Gyawali, Ms. Anita Khadka and Mr. Pallav Kumar Shrestha for their untiring contributions to carry out this research and in bringing this study to this shape. Similarly, I would like to thank all grantee of research support and their respective institutions to carry the researches related to the themes of this study. Laxmi P. Devkota, D.Eng. Page | iii Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Page | iv Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in the Koshi River Basin, Nepal Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ i Project Information........................................................................................................................ ii Acknowledgement ......................................................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ v List of Tables ................................................................................................................................. ix List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xi Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background ...............................................................................................................................
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