ISSN 1045-6333 THE EFFECTS OF MANDATORY SEAT BELT LAWS ON DRIVING BEHAVIOR AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES Alma Cohen Liran Einav Discussion Paper No. 341 11/2001 Harvard Law School Cambridge, MA 02138 The Center for Law, Economics, and Business is supported by a grant from the John M. Olin Foundation. This paper can be downloaded without charge from: The Harvard John M. Olin Discussion Paper Series: http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/olin_center/ Last revision: October 2001 The Effects of Mandatory Seat Belt Laws on ^ Driving Behavior and Traffic Fatalities Alma Cohen Department of Economics Harvard University
[email protected] Liran Einav Department of Economics Harvard University
[email protected] This paper investigates the effects of mandatory seat belt laws on driver behavior and traffic fatalities. Using a unique panel data set on seat belt usage rates in all U.S. jurisdictions, we analyze how such laws, by influencing seat belt use, affect traffic fatalities. Controlling for the endogeneity of seat belt usage, we find that it decreases overall traffic fatalities. The magnitude of this effect, however, is significantly smaller than the estimate used by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Testing the compensating behavior theory, which suggests that seat belt use also has an adverse effect on fatalities by encouraging careless driving, we find that this theory is not supported by the data. Finally, we identify factors, especially the type of enforcement used, that make seat belt laws more effective in increasing seat belt usage. JEL Classifications: C13, I12, K32, K42, R40 ^ We are grateful to Lucian Bebchuk, Gary Chamberlain, David Cutler, John Graham, Shigeo Hirano, Caroline Hoxby, Lawrence Katz, Ariel Pakes, Jack Porter, Manuel Trajtenberg, Kip Viscusi and seminars participants at Harvard University for helpful comments.