Jaiprakash Associates The wheel of fortune

Aashiesh Agarwaal, CFA +91 22 4063 5491 aashies h.agarwaa l@e de lcap.com

ObOctober 2012

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• Stock presents 78% upside from CMP: The Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) stock presents 78% upside against CMP of INR82/share, powered by earnings growth; assuming an EV/EBITDA multiple close to 5‐year low • EV to surge to ~INR855bn in FY14E from ~INR721bn in FY13E • EBITDA surges 99% to INR107bn in FY15E from INR54bn in FY12 driven by power and cement • Debt to peak in FY13/14 as most of the planned capex has been commissioned • We estimate JPA to generate INR290bn from its operations over FY13‐15E—broadly split among real estate, cement and power assets—against interest obligations of INR157bn over same period • Equity value jumps to ~INR304bn from INR171bn, a 78% increase • EV/EBITDA assumed at near 5‐year low for our target price! • Scaled up to one of the largest infrastructure players in its key segments: JPA has emerged as the third largest cement manufacturer, largest real estate developer, largest private hydro power generation company, operator of India’ s longest expressway and the only owner of F1 sports track in the country • Proven track record of strong execution capability and on‐time delivery: JPA has a proven execution record of developing world‐class assets with commendable timeliness given the operating envitironment • Additional triggers: • Debt reduction: The company has guided to asset sales / debt reduction of INR100bn over the next 6‐ 12 months. We have not assumed any of these in our estimates. Any pgprogress on this front will be an

additional trigger for the stock 2

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• The stock is trading at historically low valuation multiples driven by weak debt servicing metrics • EBITDA to catapult 38% over FY13E‐15E driven by cement and power businesses, which will drive EV expansion over forecast period • At current trough valuation multiples, the stock presents 78% upside from CMP • Improvement in debt servicing metrics due to operationalisation of assets to drive re‐rating of multiples, which will provide further upsides

FY08‐12: Story so far FY13‐15E: What future holds

Debt Debt increases stable

Execution Execution Mcap Stock EBITDA concerns EBITDA rise concerns heighten risk crashed slower performance surging perception abate

EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA declines stable to rising

4

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EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA range 40.0 45.0

32.0 36.0 ) AA 2024.0 27.0

16.0 (%) 18.0 (EV/EBITD 8.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 12 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 7 ‐ 88 ‐ 99 ‐ 10 10 ‐ 11 11 ‐ 12 12+ Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 3 year distribution 5 year distribution P/CEPS P/CEPS range 84 19.2

68 16.0

) 12.8 52 PS ) EE

%% 969.6 (

P/C 35 ( 6.4 19 3.2 3 0.0 77 88 99 00 11 22 77 88 99 00 11 77 88 99 00 11 22 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6 ‐ 77 ‐ 88 ‐ 99 ‐ 10 10 ‐ 11 11 ‐ 12 12+ Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 3 year distribution 5 year distribution Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research • EBITDA to surge 38% over FY13E‐15E driven by cement and power businesses, which will drive EV expansion over forecast period at constant valuation multiples 5

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EBITDA EV/EBITDA 120,000 25.0

96,000 20.0 ) ) 72, 000 AA 15.0 mn

(INR 48,000 10.0 (EV/EBITD

24,000 5.0

0 0.0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E

Enterprise Value MCAP rises as Debt stabilizes 10000001,000,000 600,000 Mcap surge 800,000 480,000 driven by 600,000 360,000 strong mn) n)

mm 240,000 earnings

(INR 400,000

(INR growth 120,000 200,000 0 0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E MCAP Net Debt Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

• Headwinds turn into tailwinds as most planned capex gets commissioned and EBITDA expands 6

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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Sales 65,256 112,593 147,732 205,984 245,027 285,427 Sales growth (%) 72.5 31.2 39.4 19.0 16.5 EBITDA 21,917 47,397 53,645 77,532 91,087 106,927 EBITDA growth 116.3 13.2 44.5 17.5 17.4 PBT 20,127 25,891 16,260 8,704 21,799 38,956 PAT 11,192 13,823 6,329 558 9,707 19,433 PAT growth 23.5 (54.2) (91.2) 1,639.5 100.2 EPS 5.3 6.5 3.0 0.3 4.6 9.1 EPS growth 23.4 (54.2) (91.2) 1,639.5 100.2 CEPS 7 9.5 7.5 7.7 13.4 20.3 CEPS growth 27.4 (21.9) 2.9 74.5 51.7 BVPS 40.0 50.7 54.0 52.6 54.8 59.8 BVPS growth 26.6 6.5 (2.6) 4.3 9.1 Net Debt 267,859 376,264 503,137 557,865 558,650 549,787 MCAP 33317,737 1933397,333 173303,730 171,286 171,286 171,286 EV 585,596 573,597 676,866 729,150 729,935 721,072 EV/EBITDA 12.4 10.7 8.7 8.0 6.8

Particulars FY14E EBITDA 106,927 EV/EBITDA(x) 8 EV 855,420 Debt 558,650 Less: FCCB conversion (8,025) Net Debt 550,625 MCAP (A) 304,794 no. of shares* 1,970 Add: FCCB conversion 108 Total no. of shares(B) 2,077 Target Price (A/B) 147 Source: Edelweiss research *ex‐treasury shares 7

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SEGMENT Valuation rationale EV/EBITDA ()(x) INR mn INR/ (x) share Standalone EV Cement 8x EV/EBITDA multiple to FY15 earnings 25,740.0 8 205,920 53 Construction FY14E EV/EBITDA of 5x 9758 5 48,789 13 Real Estate Jaypee Greens real estate‐ NPV 20,755 5 Hospitality Hotels at 6x FY13E EV/EBITDA 2,796.8 6 16,781 4 Wind Power At capital employed 21,637 6 Total standalone EV 313,882 FY14E net debt 145,815 Target standalone equity Value 168,068 81 Jaypee Infratech Real estate 101,501 BOT‐ 1,577 Tolling rights‐Noida Greater Noida Espressway (1,032) JAL's stake in Jaypee Infratech 83.10% Holding company disount 20% Jaypee Infratech for JAL 67,841 33 Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd Equity value Total Equity Value of JPVL 89,087 JAL's stake in JPVL 78.2% Holding company disount 20% JPVL value for JAL 55,749 27 Jaypee South and West Cement Capacities 9.8 mtpa at replacement cost at USD 110/t 10 110 56,056 Cement Less: Debt 35,000 Equity value 21,056 Holding company disount 20% JCCL value for JAL 16,845 8 Jaypee Sports City, Gr. Noida 5,828 JPSI stake 91% Holding compypany disount 20% JPSI value for JAL 4,220 2 Jaypee Himalayan Expressway Book Value 2,345 JAL's stake in JHL 100% Holding company disount 20% JHL for JAL 1,876 1 TOTAL JAL EQUITY VALUE 297,752 151 Source: Edelweiss research 8

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• Between FY08 and FY12, JPA’s net debt rose sharply while EBITDA lagged • EV/EBITDA and net debt / EBITDA depict an inverse relationship • Going forward, we expect debt to remain stable as most of the assets have been commissioned • EBITDA likely to surge 38%, helping net debt / EBITDA correct sharply • Stronger cash flows and abated execution concerns can potentially drive re‐rating • Our target does not take into account any potential of re‐rating

EBITDA and debt: A tale of two halves Possible re‐rating of EV/EBITDA as debt/EBITDA declines 600,000 120,000 25.0 14.0

480,000 96,000 20.0 11.2 360,000 72,000 15.0 ? 8.4 mn)

240,000 48,000 mn) 10.0 5.6

INR /EBITDA) R bt/EBITDA) (( VV NN (I (E

120,000 24,000 5.0 2.8 (De

0 0 0.0 0.0 12 11 10 09 08 12 11 10 09 08

15E 14E 13E 13E 14E 15E

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY Net Debt EBITDA (RHS) EV/EBITDA Debt/EBITDA

Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

Sensitivity analysis indicates comfortable cushion 9

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• Our scenario analysis indicates a valuation range of INR70–186 based on: • 7% variation in EBITDA driven by variation in cement volumes / margins • Cement volumes range of 26‐32 tonnes and 20% variation in EBTIDA/tonne • EV/EBITDA range of 7.4‐8x • Net debt overshooting our estimate by INR100bn • At CMP, downside is 15% while upside is 125%, indicating risk‐reward in favour

Sensitivity of target price to EBITDA and EV/EBITDA Sensitivity of price to variation in Debt levels (constant EV/EBITDA) EV/EBITDA multiple Net Debt 147 7.4 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 147 650,625 600,625 550,625 500,625 450,625

99,447 90 118 166 214 262 99,447 70 94 118 142 166 DA DA TT 103, 187 104 132 182 232 281 TT 103, 187 84 108 132 156 180 EBI EBI 106,927 117 147 198 250 301 106,927 99 123 147 171 195 111,987 135 166 220 274 328 111,987 118 142 166 190 214 117,047 153 186 242 298 355 117,047 138 162 186 210 234 Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research

10

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• EBITDA is likely to surge 99% between FY12 and FY15E, 26% CAGR • Diversified earnings stream; no division contributes more than 40% to EBITDA • Karcham Wangtoo and new cement capacities will add to EBITDA in FY13/FY14 • Bina/Nigrie thermal power plants will add to EBITDA in FY15 • Real estate remains a steady contributor

EBITDA surge led by hydro power, real estate and cement 120,000

96,000

72,000 mn)

R NN

(I 48,000

24,000

0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Hydro Power Thermal Power Real Estate Cement others

Source: Company, Edelweiss research Assets well positioned to post strong earnings growth 12

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Asset wise features Cement Real estate Hydro power Thermal power

Third largest player in India Largest land bank in NCR amongst 17001,700 MW of operational hydro 500 MW operational with all real estate players power assets additional 3300 MW under various Volume CAGR at 33% for the past 5 stages of construction years, leading the industry Established brand and credentials— Design energy of 7600 MW in 50% sold 68 msf and collected INR78 bn dependable year Overall 74% to be sold under PPA Emerged as a pan–India player with over past 3 years, more than any with 26% to be sold on merchant commissioning of South capacities other in the country Assured RoE projects with basis incentives for higher plant EBITDA of INR 72 bn over FY13‐15E 632msf of developable area still in availability / secondary generation EBITDA of INR 28 bn over FY13‐15E inventory Cash generation of INR 74 bn over Plant availability historically at 99% Operating cash generation of INR FY13‐15E Balance land parcels along the high‐ 26 bn between FY13E and FY15E growth corridor of the newly Generation well over the design commenced Yamuna Expressway capacity historically Operating cash generation of INR and largely part of the Jaypee 114 bn between FY16E and FY18E Sports City EBITDA of INR 63 bn over FY13‐15E

EBITDA of INR 103 bn over FY13‐ ChCash generation of INR 54bn over 15E FY13‐15E

Cash generation of INR 67bn over FY13‐15E

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

13

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• Operational cash flows of INR 290 bn over FY13‐15E • Capex of INR 176 bn over FY13‐15E • Yamuna Expressway, 250 MW Bina unit 1, 5 MTPA cement plant in Balaji was commissioned in H1FY13 • 250 Bina unit 2, 2.6 MTPA cement grinding plant, 1,320 MW Nigrie TPP to be commissioned in H2FY13– FY15E • 1,980MW Bara TPP to be commissioned in FY16E • Interest payment of INR157bn

Debt to stabilise FY13 onwards 600,000

480,000

360,000 mn)

(INR 240,000

120,000

0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E

Source: Company, Edelweiss research 15

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• 1,000MW Karcham Wangtoo HEP • Fomula 1 racing track • 214km power transmission line between Abdullapur and existing Baspa – Jhakri double circuit link • Enhanced cement capacity 3.3x over past 5 years • INR133bn 165 km 6‐lane access controlled Yamuna Expressway • 500MW Bina thermal power project Projects commissioned in FY12/FY13 Project Size Completion Cost (INR bn) Karcham Wangtoo hydro‐electric plant 1000 MW H1FY13 69 Bina thermal pwer plant 500 MW Q2FY13/Q3FY13 32.4 Jaypee power grid 214 km transmission project Q4FY12 10 Yamuna Expressway 165 km 6‐lane concrete expressway Q2FY13 133 Formula‐1 race track 5.14 km track with an initial seating Q3FY12 17 capacity of 110,000 BljiBalaji cement pltlant 5 MTPA Q1FY13 38. 5 Grinding units ‐ Bokaro, Baga, Bhilai, 6.3 MTPA Q1FY13 18.9 Sikandarabad 318.8 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Financially closed projects—Nigrie, Bara—to drive balance capex over FY13‐15 16

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Operating cash flows to expand Capex reduces as assets get commissioned 112,000 160,000

84,000 128,000

56,000 96,000 mn) mn)

(INR (INR 28,000 64,000

0 32,000

(28,000) 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Interest payments remain stable Debt levels stabilize 60, 000 600,000

48,000 480,000 mn)

36,000 n) 360,000 R mm

(IN

(INR 24,000 240,000

12,000 120,000

0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Source: Company, Edelweiss research Estimated to generate INR290bn operating cash between FY13 and FY15 driven by hydro power, real estate and cement 17

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• Cement to contribute INR74bn over FY13‐15E • Thermal power to contribute INR26bn over FY13‐15E • Hydro power to contribute INR53bn over FY13‐15E • Real estate to contribute INR67bn over FY13‐15E Assets well positioned to generate robust cash flows 25, 000 25,000 Hydro power Thermal power 20,000 20,000

15,000 15,000 mn)

mn)

10,000 INR 10,000 (INR ( 5,000 5,000 0 0 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E

30,000 30,000 Real Estate Cement 24,000 24,000

18,000 18,000 n) mn)

mm RR 12,000 12,000 (IN (INR 6,000 6,000

0 0 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Source: Company, Edelweiss research 18

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Owner‐operator of India’s longest expressway Project Length (km) Current ownership Year of completion Yamuna Expressway 165 Jaypee Infratech completed in 2012 Western Peripheral Expressway 136 DS Construction ‐ Apollo Enterprises Under Development Eastern Peripheral Expressway 135 Proposed Proposed Ahme dbddabad Vadddodara Expressway 95 IRB Infra Iniiitia l ‐ 2004, Current Upgradidtion ‐ FY16E Mumbai Pune Expressway 93 IRB Infra completed in 2002 ‐Gurgaon Expressway 28 DS Construction completed in 2008 Delhi Noida Direct Flyway 9 Noida Toll Bridge Company completed in 2001 Largest real estate area sold in the past 3 years 40.0 Largest private producer of hydro‐power in the country 32.0 FY 12 Generation Project MW Program Actual 24.0 Jaiprakash Power Ventures 1,700 4,225 6,093

(msf) 16.0 Tata Power Company 447 1,450 1,531 8.0 LNJ Bhilwara 378 1,236 1,065 Bhandardhara 34 58 117 0.0 Total 2,559 6,969 8,806 JPA DLF GPL Unitech Prestige Sobha FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 3rd largest cement capacity in the country Largest ldland bkbank in the country FY08/ FY09/ FY10/ FY11/ FY12/ 700 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 Ambuja‐ACC 44.8 41.1 48.2 55.0 57.0 560 Ultratech 18.2 21.9 23.5 48.8 48.8 420 Jaiprakash Associates 9.0 13.5 22.8 26.2 28.3 f) IdiIndia CtCements 888.8 13. 0 14. 1 14. 1 14. 1

(ms 280 Shree Cements 9.0 10.0 10.2 13.5 13.5

140

0 JPA DLF GPL Prestige Sobha Rapid attainme nt of scal e a testimo ny to robust Source: Company, Edelweiss research execution capability 20

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Indicative list of projects Project Characteristics Client Scope of work Sardar Sarovar Dam: 1.2km long concrete gravity dam SSNN, Gujarat Main dam and power house Largest concrete dam in A proposed final height of 163m against IdiIndia current hhihteight of 121.9 m Its construction required pouring of about 7 mn cubic metres of chilled concrete It is expected to supply water for irrigation to 1.84 mn ha across 15 districts and 73 suburbs It is also expected to supply drinking water to 29 mn ihbiinhabitants across 131 towns and 96339,633 villages in Gujarat Tehri Dam: Largest Tehri Dam is the third tallest rockfill dam in the THDC, Uttranchal Rockfill dam and spillways rockfill dam in India world and the largest in Asia

Nathpa‐Jhakri: Largest A 1,500MW power house is the largest SJVNL, Power house and penstocks underground underground power house in India powerhouse in India

Yamuna Expressway: Power house and penstocks JPIN, Uttar Pradesh JPA’s 83.1% subsidiary –JPIN is India’s longest 6 lane owner and JPA is the EPC contractor access controlled concrete expressway

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

21

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Tracking delivery v/s guidance Power projects May‐09 Aug‐09 Nov‐09 Mar‐10 Sep‐10 Feb‐11 May‐11 Nov‐11 Jan‐12 Jun‐12 Aug‐12 Comments Karcham Wangtoo 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 Commissioned in Sep 2011 Bina 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 Commissioned in June 2012 Nigrie 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 Maintaining guidance of 2013 commiiission ing Kannur NM NM NM NM 2013 NM NM NM NM NM NM Bara 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 Maintaining guidance of 2014 commissioning Karchana 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2016 2016 Suspended due to land acquisition issues Lower Siang 2015 2015 2015 2017 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Under planning Hirong 2015 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 Under planning Kynshi ‐ Stage ‐ II 2016 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 Under planning Umngot ‐ Stage ‐ I 2016 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Under planning

Cement May‐09 Aug‐09 Nov‐09 Mar‐10 Sep‐10 Feb‐11 May‐11 Nov‐11 Jan‐12 Jun‐12 Aug‐12 Capacity target 2008 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 2009 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 2010 24.3 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 Achieved 22.8 MTPA capacity 2011 26.8 29.7 29.7 31.5 33.6 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 Achieve d 26. 2 MTPA capacity in Feb 2011 2012 33.5 33.5 35.5 33.6 37.6 35.9 35.9 35.9 35.9 28.3 28.3 Achieved 33.6 MTPA capacity in June 2012 2013 35.9 35.9 Source: Company, Ede lwe iss research

• Other key projects commissioned—Yamuna Expressway with a 10 month delay, due to farmer violence in the vicinity • Formula 1 race track delivered on time for India’s maiden F1 race 22

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Debt repayment of ~INR252bn and interest of ~INR166bn due during FY13‐15E Annual repayment shedule Debt Book value FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E‐15E JPA standalone 210,387 53,255 36,609 41,650 131,514 Jaypee Infratech 71,096 4,561 4,561 4,561 13,683 JPVL 174,173 24,411 16,260 33,311 73,981 others 76,086 10,869 10,869 10,869 32,608 Total 531,743 93,096 68,299 90,391 251,787 Interest JPA standalone 22,391 22,879 21,634 66,903 Jaypee Infratech 8,015 7,488 6,961 22,464 JPVL 17,947 18,843 18,299 55,088 others 8,478 7,174 5,870 21,522 Total 56,832 56,384 52,762 165,977 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

Operating cash flows of INR290bn between FY13E and FY15E to service interest payments

24

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Debt servicing Annual repayment shedule Debt Book value FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E‐15E Non Convertible Secured Debentures 47,550 6,950 12,247 13,617 32,814 Secured Term Loans from Banks, Financial Institutions & Others are given as under 95,246 95839,583 13,832 16,957 40,373 Loan from State Government [Interest Free] 2,189 ‐ ‐ 547 547 Advance from clients 61 61 ‐ ‐ 61 Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds 18,284 26,997 ‐ ‐ 26,997 Foreign Currency Loans from Banks [ECB] 13,487 2,524 3,389 3,389 9,302 Unsecured loans From Banks 2,377 340 340 340 1,019 Fixed Deposits Scheme 20,401 6,800 6,800 6,800 20,401 Add: Short Term Borrowings 10,793 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ Total 210,387 53,255 36,609 41,650 131,514 Interest Non Convertible Secured Debentures 4,608 3,699 2,381 10,689 Secured Term Loans from Banks, Financial Institutions & Others are given as under 11,580 10,112 8,213 29,906 ECB 803 619 416 1,838 Unsecured loans From Banks 287 244 202 732 Fixed Deposits Scheme 2,338 1,488 638 4,463 Total 19,616 16,162 11,849 47,627 Add: ItInteres t on refinance d dbtdebt 27752,775 67176,717 97859,785 19,277 Total Interest payment 22,391 22,879 21,634 66,903 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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• Strong INR53bn cash flow from 1,700MW hydro power projects • Bina and Nigrie TPPs to contribute INR27bn • Capex and interest payments to result in outflow of INR195bn • Additional funding requirement of INR9bn between FY13E and FY15E JVPL Cash Flow Summary FY13E FY14E FY15E Total Annual repayment schedule Hydro power Debt Book value FY13E FY14E FY15E FY13E‐15E Baspa 2,388 2,099 1,915 6,402 Non Convertible Vishnuprayag 3,677 3,523 3,523 10,723 Series ‐ I 10,000 14,049 ‐ ‐ 14,049 Karcham Wangtoo 8,645 14,193 13,641 36,479 Series ‐ II 9,826 ‐ 3,660 7,970 11,630 Total 14,710 19,815 19,078 53,604 19,826 14,049 3,660 7,970 25,679 Thermal power Secured Term Loans from Banks, Financial Institutions & Others Bina 1,048 4,758 4,803 10,608 Baspa 4,242 353 353 353 1,060 Niiigrie ‐ 389 15,282 15,670 Vis hnuprayag 14,667 1,222 1,222 1,222 3,667 Bara ‐ I ‐ ‐ ‐ Karcham Wangtoo 45,612 3,041 3,041 3,041 9,122 Total thermal power 1,048 5,147 20,084 26,279 Bina 17,661 376 1,503 1,503 3,382 Power Transmission 1,945 1,643 1,591 5,179 Nigrie ( Total to be Emmission Reduction credits 427 390 408 1,225 drawn INR 56.7bn) 22,317 ‐ ‐ 2,835 2,835 TtlTotal operating cash flows 18,130 26,995 41,161 86,286 Nigrie 84898,489 ‐ ‐ 424 424 Capex 73,300 33,040 32,880 139,220 Other loans 10,000 3,333 4,444 2,222 10,000 Free cash flows to firm (55,170) (6,045) 8,281 (52,934) FCCB 11,000 ‐ ‐ 11,703 11,703 Debt repayments / (increase) (51,947) (17,326) (14,599) (83,872) 133,987 8,326 10,564 23,305 42,194 Interest payments 9,604 11,916 17,357 38,876 Add: Subsidiary debt 20,360 2,036 2,036 2,036 6,108 Free cash flows to equity (12,826) (635) 5,523 (7,938) Total Debt 174,173 24,411 16,260 33,311 73,981 Interest Interest ‐standalone 15,625 16,765 16,465 48,855 Interest ‐subsidiaries 2,322 2,078 1,833 6,233 Total 17,947 18,843 18,299 55,088

Source: Company, Edelweiss research 26

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Cash Flow Summary FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Total Real Estate Noida 8,958 13,421 17,020 19,312 58,711 Greater Noida (()675) 277 1,684 1,736 3,022 Agra ‐ (225) (54) 583 304 Yamuna Expressway ‐ (690) (3) 348 (344) Total operating cash flows 8,283 12,783 18,647 21,980 61,693 Capex 18,108 16,079 (50) ‐ 34,137 Free cash flows to firm (9,825) (3,296) 18,697 21,980 27,556 Debt repayments / (increase) (4,599) 5,473 5,473 5,473 11,821 Interest payments 8,351 8,015 7,488 6,961 30,815 Free cash flows to equity (13,577) (16,784) 5,736 9,546 (15,080) Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Cement: Industry margins to remain stable

• Due to capacity additions, industry ultilisation is estimated to remain below 80% till FY15 (assuming 9% demand growth from FY13 to FY15). • However, post the CCI order, the industry has shown great resilience by being able to keep prices firm. Hence, we expect margins for FY14/FY15 to stabilise at hig her lllevels expected in FY13

All India Capacity utilisation All India‐(mn tonnes) FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Installed capacity at the year end‐ exit capacities 215.5 257.0 280.5 299.9 331.6 356.6 364.5 Non‐operative Capacities (a) 4.94.62.82.82.82.82.8 Effective Capacity (b) 199.5 230.2 270.1 296.5 314.6 350.0 367.8 Operative Effective capacity ( c) = (b)‐(a) 194.6 225.6 267.3 293.7 311.8 347.3 365.0 Consumption ‐ domestic (d) 177.5 196.4 207.5 221.3 241.2 263.2 287.2 % change YoY 8.6 10.7 5.6 6.7 9.0 9.1 9.1 Cement + clinker exports (e) 6.14.84.23.53.53.53.5 Total demand (f) = (d) + (e) 183.6 201.2 211.6 224.8 244.7 266.7 290.7 % change YoY 8.39.65.26.28.89.09.0 Capacity utilisation (f)/ ( c ) (%) 94.4 89.2 79.2 76.6 78.5 76.8 79.7 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Cement cash flows –key assumptions

• We expect the company to continue to outperform the industry with volume growth of 16% CAGR between FY12‐FY15E • While industry EBITDA / Ton is expected to remain flat, EBITDA/t for JPA is likely to increase modlderately didriven by iiimproving operating leverage Operating cash flow of ~INR 74bn over FY13‐15E FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Capacity 19 26 28 35 36 36 Volume 9 15 18 22 26 28 EBITDA / T1,497 869 612 900 950 1,000 EBITDA 13,693 12,696 10,845 19,711 24,424 28,280 Depreciation 3,132 4,853 6,042 7,933 8,579 9,035 EBIT 10,561 7,844 4,803 11,778 15,845 19,246 Notional Interest 97209,720 18,000 19,800 21,492 21,277 21,064 Notional PBT 841 (10,156) (14,997) (9,714) (5,432) (1,818) Notional PAT 564 (6,805) (10,048) (6,508) (3,640) (1,218) Operating cash flow PAT 564 (6,805) (10,048) (6,508) (3,640) (1,218) Interest 9,720 18,000 19,800 21,492 21,277 21,064 Depreciation 3,132 4,853 6,042 7,933 8,579 9,035 Operating cash flow before WC changes 13,416 16,048 15,794 22,916 26,217 28,881 Working Capital Changes ‐ ‐ 937 1,350 1,485 1,382 Operating cash flow after WC changes 13,416 16,048 14,857 21,566 24,732 27,498 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Hydro power: Baspa

• The 300MW Baspa II hydro electric plant located at Himachal 120 300 Pradesh is expected to generate INR6.4bn over FY13‐15E 96 240

• Commissioned in FY04, this is as assured returns project with 72 180 U) (%)

16% RoE with incentives for higher plant availability and MM ( 48 120 secondary energy generation. JPVL has inked a PPA with HPSEB for off take of energy from the project 24 60 0 0 • Past record of plant availability and secondary energy FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E generation present upsides to our cash flow estimates Secondary energy Plant availability Assumptions and operational details Baspa FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant Capacity (MW) 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Design Energy (MU) 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 1,213 Primary saleable energy capacity (MU) 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 1,050 Approved capex 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 15,340 Approved equity 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 4,602 Plant availability (%) 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Generation 1,402 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 1,274 Net saleable energy 1,233 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 1,121 Revenues 3,341 2,858 2,757 2,677 2,659 2,684 2,709 2,736 EBITDA 3,036 2,534 2,413 2,313 2,274 2,275 2,276 2,277 Depreciation 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 660 EBIT 2,376 1,874 1,754 1,653 1,614 1,615 1,616 1,617 ItInteres t 453 324 204 103 64 65 66 67 PBT 1,923 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 1,550 Tax 635 512 512 512 512 512 512 512 PAT 1,289 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 1,039 RoE on approved equity (%) 28 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 Operating cash flow 23882,388 20992,099 1,915 18111,811 17611,761 17541,754 17551,755 17561,756 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 30

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• The 400MW‐Vishnuprayag hydro electric plant located at 120 450 Uttarakhand is expected to generate INR11bn over FY13‐ 96 360 15E 72 270 U) %) (( • Commissioned in FY07, this is as assured returns project MM ( 48 180 with 16% RoE with incentives for higher plant availability and generation of secondary energy. JPVL has inked a PPA 24 90 with UPPCL for off take of energy from the project 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E • Past record of plant availability and secondary energy Secondary energy Plant availability generation present upsides to our cash flow estimates Assumptions and operational details Vishnuprayag FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant Capacity (MW) 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 Design Energy (MU) 1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774 1,774 Primary saleable energy capacity (MU) 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 1,534 Approved capex 16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940 16,940 Approved equity 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 5,147 Plant availability (%) 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 GtiGeneration 21772,177 18631,863 1,863 18631,863 18631,863 18631,863 18631,863 18631,863 Net saleable energy 1,916 1,639 1,639 1,639 1,639 1,639 1,639 1,639 Revenues 3,441 3,292 3,143 2,994 2,198 2,061 1,925 1,789 EBITDA 3,183 3,030 2,877 2,725 1,914 1,761 1,608 1,455 Depreciation 1,186 1,186 1,186 1,186 254 254 254 254 EBIT 19971,997 18441,844 1,692 15391,539 16591,659 15071,507 13541,354 12011,201 Interest 588 435 283 130 (23) (176) (328) (481) PBT 1,409 1,409 1,409 1,409 1,682 1,682 1,682 1,682 Tax 282 282 282 282 555 555 555 555 PAT 1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127 1,127 RoE on approved equity (%) 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 Operating cash flow 3,000 2,825 2,669 2,514 1,426 1,258 1,102 947 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 31

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• The 1,000MW Karcham Wangtoo hydro electric plant located at Himachal Pradesh is expected to generate INR36bn over FY13‐15E • Commissioned in FY12, this project has a assured return of 14% at a plant availability of 85%, with iiincentives at 0.65% of annual fixe d charge for each percentage availa bility hig her than normative capacity • Past record of plant availability and secondary energy generation present upsides to our cash flow estimates Assumptions and operational details Karcham Wangtoo FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant Capacity (MW) 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 Design Energy (MU)‐ 90% dependable year 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 4,261 DiDesign Energy (MU)‐ 50% ddbldependable year 45964,596 45964,596 4,596 45964,596 45964,596 45964,596 45964,596 45964,596 Primary saleable energy capacity (MU) 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 3,750 Approved capex 69,000 69,000 69,000 69,000 69,000 69,000 69,000 69,000 Approved equity 20,100 20,100 20,100 20,100 20,100 20,100 20,100 20,100 Plant availability (%) 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 Generation 45964,596 44294,429 4,429 44294,429 44294,429 44294,429 44294,429 44294,429 Net saleable energy 4,044 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 3,897 Revenues 16,814 16,219 16,002 15,788 15,577 15,369 15,165 14,963 EBITDA 15,738 15,099 14,838 14,577 14,318 14,060 13,803 13,547 Depreciation 2,128 2,128 2,128 2,128 2,128 2,128 2,128 2,128 EBIT 13,610 12,971 12,710 12,449 12,190 11,932 11,675 11,419 Interest 6,721 6,304 5,919 5,534 5,150 4,766 4,382 3,999 PBT 6,889 6,668 6,791 6,915 7,040 7,166 7,292 7,420 Tax 1,378 1,334 1,358 1,383 1,408 1,433 1,458 1,484 PAT 5,511 5,334 5,433 5,532 5,632 5,732 5,834 5,936 RoE on approved equity (%) 27 27 27 28 28 29 29 30 Operating cash flow 8,645 14,193 13,641 13,354 13,068 12,783 12,499 12,215 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 32

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• 3,700 MW thermal power projects to be commissioned between FY13 and FY16 • Cumulative estimated capex of INR253bn against INR91bn spent till FY12 • Operational cash flow of INR26bn between FY13E and FY15E • Operational cash flow of INR114bn

Project Size (MW) Fuel supply Capex (INR Capex completed Funding Cost (INR mn per MW) Expcted COD bn) (FY12)

Bina I 500 FSA executed for unit I 32.4 27.0 30:70 64.8 Operational

Nigrie 1,320 Pithead located captive coal block – 81.0 37.8 30:70 Edel estimate of 65 v/s April 2014 v/s JV between JAL and MPSPMC company guidance of company guidance of 61.4 CY 2013

Karchana – I Currently on hold

Bara I 1,980 FSA to be executed 107.8 26.2 25:75 Edel estimate of 68 v/s April 2015 v/s company guidance of company guidance of 54.5 CY 2014

Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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• 500MW coal‐based thermal power plant located at Madhya Pradesh • Unit 1 of the project commissioned in Q2FY13; unit 2 expected in Q3FY13 • 30% of the electricity generated will be sold on merchant basis • Project expected to generate INR11bn over FY13‐15E Assumptions and operational details Bina FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant capacity (MW) ‐ 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 % of year when operational ‐ 50 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 PLF (%) ‐ 70 88 88 88 88 88 88 88 Auxiliary consumption (%) ‐ 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 Gross Generation (mn KwH) ‐ 1,533 3,854 3,854 3,865 3,854 3,854 3,854 3,865 Net Generation (mn KwH) ‐ 14261,426 35853,585 35853,585 35943,594 35853,585 35853,585 35853,585 35943,594 Calorific value of coal 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 Plant heat rate 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 Coal required (Mn Tons) ‐ 1 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Coal cost per ton 1,350 1,418 1,488 1,563 1,641 1,723 1,809 1,900 1,995 Total Revenues ‐ 32273,227 10,152 10,170 10,448 10,444 10,470 10,752 10,811 Total opex ‐ 2,347 4,934 5,180 5,452 5,711 5,997 6,297 6,627 EBITDA ‐ 880 5,218 4,990 4,996 4,733 4,473 4,455 4,184 Depreciation ‐ 855 1,711 1,711 1,711 1,711 1,711 1,711 1,711 EBIT ‐ 24 3,508 3,279 3,285 3,022 2,762 2,744 2,473 Interest ‐ 1,184 2,269 2,059 1,853 1,642 1,430 1,224 1,011 PBT ‐ (1,159) 1,238 1,220 1,432 1,380 1,332 1,520 1,462 Tax ‐ (232) 248 244 286 276 266 304 292 Profit After Tax ‐ (927) 991 976 1,146 1,104 1,066 1,216 1,169 Cash flow from operations ‐ 1,048 4,758 4,803 4,730 4,519 4,271 4,176 3,962 Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Thermal power: Nigrie

• 1,320MW coal‐based thermal power plant located at Madhya Pradesh • Project expected to be commissioned in FY15 • 50% of the electricity generated will be sold on merchant basis • Project expected to generate INR15bn over FY13‐15, all of it in FY15 • Cash generation in the project FY16 onwards will be ~INR20bn annually Assumptions and operational details Nigrie FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant capacity (MW) ‐ 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 1,320 % of year when operational ‐ ‐ 25 100 100 100 100 100 100 PLF (%) ‐ ‐ ‐ 70 88 88 88 88 88 Auxiliary consumption (%) ‐ 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Gross Generation (mn KwH) ‐ ‐ ‐ 8,094 10,203 10,176 10,176 10,176 10,203 Net Generation (mn KwH) ‐ ‐ ‐ 7,609 9,591 9,565 9,565 9,565 9,591 Calorific value of coal 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 Plant heat rate 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 2,200 Coal required (Mn Tons) ‐ ‐ ‐ 4 5 5 5 5 5 Coal cost per ton 900 945 992 1,042 1,094 1,149 1,206 1,266 1,330 Total Revenues ‐ ‐ ‐ 23,789 30,258 30,458 31,149 31,455 31,853 Total opex ‐ ‐ ‐ 6,665 8,219 8,613 9,044 9,496 9,991 EBITDA ‐ ‐ ‐ 17,124 22,039 21,845 22,105 21,958 21,862 Depreciation ‐ ‐ ‐ 4,530 4,530 4,530 4,530 4,530 4,530 EBIT ‐ ‐ ‐ 12,594 17,509 17,315 17,575 17,428 17,332 Interest ‐ ‐ 1,944 8,305 7,667 6,774 5,889 4,995 4,100 PBT ‐ ‐ (1,944) 4,288 9,841 10,541 11,686 12,434 13,232 Tax ‐ ‐ (389) 858 1,968 2,108 2,337 2,487 2,646 Profit After Tax ‐ ‐ (1,555) 3,431 7,873 8,433 9,349 9,947 10,586 Cash flow from operations ‐ ‐ 389 15,282 19,908 19,837 19,803 19,578 19,326

Source: Company, Edelweiss research 35

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• 1,980MW coal‐based thermal power plant located at Uttar Pradesh • Project expected to be commissioned in FY16 • 90% of the electricity generated will be sold on PPA • Pending capex on the project is estimated at INR109bn • Cash generation in the project FY16 onwards likely to be ~INR15bn annually Assumptions and operational details Bara I FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Plant capacity (MW) ‐ 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 1,980 % of year when operational ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 70 100 100 100 100 PLF (%) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 70 88 88 88 88 Auxiliary consumption (%) ‐ 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Gross GiGeneration (mn KwH) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8228,522 15,263 15,263 15,263 15,305 Net Generation (mn KwH) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8,011 14,348 14,348 14,348 14,387 Calorific value of coal 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 Plant heat rate 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 2,350 Coal required (Mn Tons) ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6 10 10 10 10 Coal cost per ton 11981,198 12741,274 13541,354 14401,440 15321,532 16291,629 17321,732 18431,843 19601,960 Total Revenues ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 20,079 37,425 37,115 38,076 37,890 Total opex ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 11,713 20,100 21,331 22,639 24,086 EBITDA ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8,366 17,325 15,784 15,436 13,804 Depreciation ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 4,995 7,135 7,135 7,135 7,135 EBIT ‐‐‐‐ 3,371 10,189 8,649 8,301 6,668 Interest ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 7,710 10,167 9,184 8,227 7,240 PBT ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ (4,338) 22 (535) 74 (572) Tax ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ (868) 4 (107) 15 (114) Profit After Tax ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ (3,471) 18 (428) 60 (458) Cash flow from operations ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 8,150 16,590 16,177 15,509 14,225 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 36

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• Largest land bank in NCR amongst all real estate players – bulk of it in Jaypee Infratech • Established brand and credentials—sold 68 msf, more than any other in the country, and collected INR78 bn over past 3 years • 632msf of developable area still in inventory between JPIN and JPSI; Balance land parcels along the high‐growth corridor of the newly commenced Yamuna Expressway and largely part of the Jaypee Sports City • EBITDA of INR 103 bn over FY13‐15E, Cash generation of INR 67bn over FY13‐15E Location wise performance –JPA (consolidated) Company/ Location Cumulative area Cumulative sales Cumulative Average sold (msf) value (INR mn) collections realisations JAL – GtGreater NidNoida 5725.72 28, 790 20, 830 50365,036 JAL ‐ Noida 8.33 48,896 30,519 5,870 Jaypee Infratech 47.10 150,580 86,213 3,197 2.34 7,196 2,966 3,075 Jaypee Sports Int’l. 0.4msy 6,592 18,582 68 242, 054 145, 325 35763,576 Annual sales performance –JaypeeInfratech Period No. of units sold Area sold (msf) Average rate (INR/sf) Sales value Advances received FY2009 700 1 3,328 3,162 630 FY2010 13,205 20 2,540 51,705 16,699 FY2011 7,906 12 3,308 40,953 31,455 FY2012 5,100 11 4,162 45,450 29,378 Q1FY13 967 3 3,724 9,310 8,050 27,878 47 3,197 150,580 86,212 Source: Company 37

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Company/ Location Total Developable Area (msf) JAL – Greater Noida 8 JAL ‐ Noida 24 Jaypee Infratech 530 Jaypee Sports Int’l. 133 Total 696

Source: Company 38

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• Vast development potential of 530msf over 5 land parcels along the Yamuna Expressway • Robust sales of 9.55 msf at an average rate of INR4,141 in FY12 • Expected sales of INR133bn (33 msf) at an average rate of INR4,000 over FY13‐15E • Commencement of Yamuna Expressway expected to enhance connectivity and increase economic activity in the surrounding area JPIN Real estate performance Jaypee Infratech FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Area sold Noida 8.47 8.83 7.01 5.60 Greater Noida 1.08 1.75 2.60 3.07 Agra ‐ 0.75 1.45 2.15 9.55 11.33 11.06 10.82 Average RtRate Noida 4,350 4,568 4,796 5,036 Greater Noida 2,500 2,625 2,756 2,894 Agra ‐ 2,205 2,315 2,431 4,141 4,111 3,991 3,910 Cash Inflows Noida 28,364 39,052 45,729 43,977 Greater Noida 909 2,674 5,520 7,856 Agra ‐ 514 1,712 3,567 29,273 42,240 52,961 55,401 Cash Outflows Noida 16,551 21,926 24,260 20,817 Greater Noida 1,521 2,230 3,498 5,555 Agra ‐ 708 1,656 2,751 18,071 24,864 29,415 29,124 Taxes paid 2,918 3,904 4,896 4,645 Operating cash flow 8,283 13,472 18,650 21,631 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 39

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• The 6‐lane access controlled expressway has commenced operations from August 9, 2012 • With a traffic potential of 45,000 PCUs per day, we expect traffic to ramp up steadily over 5‐7 years • Currently, the road is gggenerating daily toll collection of INR2.5mn per day

Yamuna Expressway performance metrics YE‐ Greater‐Noida Agra FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY19E FY20E Traffic Volume ('000 PCUs) 821 3,548 4,790 9,311 13,408 19,307 22,927 22,927 Toll Rate (INR/km) 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 Toll Revenue (INR mn) 207 947 1,355 2,793 4,263 6,507 8,191 8,682 Operating Expenditure 896 950 1,007 1,068 1,132 1,200 1,272 1,348 EBITDA (690) (3) 348 1,725 3,131 5,308 6,919 7,335 Less: Interest 6,384 6,766 6,616 5,983 5,303 4,863 4,424 3,984 Tax Payable/ (Shield) (2,495) (3,406) (3,100) (2,514) (1,930) (1,257) (713) 118 FCFF (4,579) (3,363) (3,167) (1,744) (241) 1,702 3,208 3,232 Less: Debt Repayment 4,507 4,507 4,507 4,507 4,507 4,507 4,507 4,507 FCFE (9,086) (7,870) (7,674) (6,252) (4,749) (2,806) (1,299) (1,275) Source: Company, Edelweiss research

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Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Income Statement Revenues 65,256 112,593 147,732 205,984 245,027 285,427 EBIDTA 21,917 47,397 53,645 77,532 91,087 106,927 Interest 12,864 18,747 31,341 56,332 53,644 47,237 PfitProfit bfbefore tax 20, 127 25, 891 16, 260 87048,704 21, 799 38, 956 Core net profit 11,192 13,823 6,329 558 9,707 19,433 EPS (INR) 5.27 6.50 2.98 0.26 4.56 9.14 Balance sheet Shareholders funds 85,403 107,791 114,780 111,757 116,530 127,187 Borrowings 352, 711 444, 450 531, 742 592, 658 585, 681 569, 455 Minority Interest & others 21,635 44,356 47,490 49,691 52,033 54,530 Sources of funds 459,748 596,598 694,013 754,106 754,244 751,172 Total fixed assets 304,050 420,980 532,539 618,408 644,937 666,658 Investments 10,586 31,111 32,312 32,312 32,312 32,312 Total current assets 205,515 228,080 227,912 214,411 192,565 173,314 Total current liabilities & provisions 60,403 83,573 98,750 111,025 115,570 121,112 Net Current Assets 145,112 144,507 129,163 103,387 76,995 52,202 Uses of funds 459,748 596,598 694,013 754,106 754,244 751,172 Cash Flow Metrics (0) (0) 0 Operating cash flow (10,151) 17,517 41,308 99,381 94,168 97,402 Financing cash flow 148,005 90,640 60,257 3,117 (62,087) (64,928) Investing cash flow (92,216) (124,821) (141,145) (96,311) (39,843) (39,837) Net cash flow 45,638 (16,664) (39,580) 6,187 (7,762) (7,362) Capex (105,082) (129,092) (142,889) (99,619) (42,990) (42,880) Ratios ROE (%) 15. 79 17. 25 8528.52 2112.11 11. 54 21. 95 NP Margin (%) 18.20 14.77 6.42 1.16 5.38 9.37 P/E (x) 13.97 9.99 17.52 69.53 12.61 6.21 Price/BV(x) 1.95 1.54 1.45 1.49 1.43 1.31 EV/EBITDA (x) 19.79 11.44 12.47 9.34 7.96 6.69

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JPA

Cement Power Real estate

Standalone JCCL ‐ 100% subsidiary JPVL 67.9% Jaypee Infratech JPSI (90.5% subsidiary Standalone (26 mt) (10 mt) Subsidiary (83.1%subsidiary) (133msf)

Hydro Power Thermal Power Land parcels at Noida, 300 MW Baspa 74% subsidiary 500 MW Bina Noida (24.3msf) Jaganpur, Mirzzapur, 400 MW Vishnuppygrayag 214 kms PGCIL 1320 MW Nigrie GtGreater NNidoida (8 msf) TlTappal and Agra of 1000 MW Karcham transmission line 1980 MW Bara 1,235 acres each Wangtoo

Source: Company

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