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Jaiprakash Associates the Wheel of Fortune Jaiprakash Associates The wheel of fortune Aashiesh Agarwaal, CFA +91 22 4063 5491 aashies h.agarwaa l@e de lcap.com ObOctober 2012 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Investment Rationale • Stock presents 78% upside from CMP: The Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) stock presents 78% upside against CMP of INR82/share, powered by earnings growth; assuming an EV/EBITDA multiple close to 5‐year low • EV to surge to ~INR855bn in FY14E from ~INR721bn in FY13E • EBITDA surges 99% to INR107bn in FY15E from INR54bn in FY12 driven by power and cement • Debt to peak in FY13/14 as most of the planned capex has been commissioned • We estimate JPA to generate INR290bn from its operations over FY13‐15E—broadly split among real estate, cement and power assets—against interest obligations of INR157bn over same period • Equity value jumps to ~INR304bn from INR171bn, a 78% increase • EV/EBITDA assumed at near 5‐year low for our target price! • Scaled up to one of the largest infrastructure players in its key segments: JPA has emerged as the third largest cement manufacturer, largest real estate developer, largest private hydro power generation company, operator of India’ s longest expressway and the only owner of F1 sports track in the country • Proven track record of strong execution capability and on‐time delivery: JPA has a proven execution record of developing world‐class assets with commendable timeliness given the operating envitironment • Additional triggers: • Debt reduction: The company has guided to asset sales / debt reduction of INR100bn over the next 6‐ 12 months. We have not assumed any of these in our estimates. Any pgprogress on this front will be an additional trigger for the stock 2 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Strong upside ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Stock presents robust upside • The stock is trading at historically low valuation multiples driven by weak debt servicing metrics • EBITDA to catapult 38% over FY13E‐15E driven by cement and power businesses, which will drive EV expansion over forecast period • At current trough valuation multiples, the stock presents 78% upside from CMP • Improvement in debt servicing metrics due to operationalisation of assets to drive re‐rating of multiples, which will provide further upsides FY08‐12: Story so far FY13‐15E: What future holds Debt Debt increases stable Execution Execution Mcap Stock EBITDA concerns EBITDA rise concerns heighten risk crashed slower performance surging perception abate EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA declines stable to rising 4 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. Stock trading at historically low valuation multiples EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA range 40.0 45.0 32.0 36.0 ) AA 2024.0 27.0 16.0 (%) 18.0 (EV/EBITD 8.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 07 08 09 10 11 12 07 08 09 10 11 07 08 09 10 11 12 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 7 ‐ 88 ‐ 99 ‐ 10 10 ‐ 11 11 ‐ 12 12+ Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 3 year distribution 5 year distribution P/CEPS P/CEPS range 84 19.2 68 16.0 ) 12.8 52 PS ) EE %% 969.6 ( P/C 35 ( 6.4 19 3.2 3 0.0 77 88 99 00 11 22 77 88 99 00 11 77 88 99 00 11 22 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 6 ‐ 77 ‐ 88 ‐ 99 ‐ 10 10 ‐ 11 11 ‐ 12 12+ Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug 3 year distribution 5 year distribution Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research • EBITDA to surge 38% over FY13E‐15E driven by cement and power businesses, which will drive EV expansion over forecast period at constant valuation multiples 5 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. Downloaded by in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 at 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. ISI Emerging Markets. Unauthorized Distribution Prohibited. EBITDA to catapult 38% over FY13E‐15E EBITDA EV/EBITDA 120,000 25.0 96,000 20.0 ) ) 72,000 AA 15. 0 mn (INR 48,000 10.0 (EV/EBITD 24,000 5.0 0 0.0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E Enterprise Value MCAP rises as Debt stabilizes 10000001,000,000 600,000 Mcap surge 800,000 480,000 driven by 600,000 360,000 strong mn) n) mm 240,000 earnings (INR 400,000 (INR growth 120,000 200,000 0 0 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13E FY 14E FY 15E MCAP Net Debt Source: Bloomberg, Edelweiss research • Headwinds turn into tailwinds as most planned capex gets commissioned and EBITDA expands 6 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. DownloadPDF. 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Valuation summary: Earnings based FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Sales 65,256 112,593 147,732 205,984 245,027 285,427 Sales growth (%) 72.5 31.2 39.4 19.0 16.5 EBITDA 21,917 47,397 53,645 77,532 91,087 106,927 EBITDA growth 116.3 13.2 44.5 17.5 17.4 PBT 20,127 25,891 16,260 8,704 21,799 38,956 PAT 11,192 13,823 6,329 558 9,707 19,433 PAT growth 23.5 (54.2) (91.2) 1,639.5 100.2 EPS 5.3 6.5 3.0 0.3 4.6 9.1 EPS growth 23.4 (54.2) (91.2) 1,639.5 100.2 CEPS 7 9.5 7.5 7.7 13.4 20.3 CEPS growth 27.4 (21.9) 2.9 74.5 51.7 BVPS 40.0 50.7 54.0 52.6 54.8 59.8 BVPS growth 26.6 6.5 (2.6) 4.3 9.1 Net Debt 267,859 376,264 503,137 557,865 558,650 549,787 MCAP 33317,737 1933397,333 173303,730 171,286 171,286 171,286 EV 585,596 573,597 676,866 729,150 729,935 721,072 EV/EBITDA 12.4 10.7 8.7 8.0 6.8 Particulars FY14E EBITDA 106,927 EV/EBITDA(x) 8 EV 855,420 Debt 558,650 Less: FCCB conversion (8,025) Net Debt 550,625 MCAP (A) 304,794 no. of shares* 1,970 Add: FCCB conversion 108 Total no. of shares(B) 2,077 Target Price (A/B) 147 Source: Edelweiss research *ex‐treasury shares 7 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST. 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Valuation summary: SOTP SEGMENT Valuation rationale EV/EBITDA ()(x) INR mn INR/ (x) share Standalone EV Cement 8x EV/EBITDA multiple to FY15 earnings 25,740.0 8 205,920 53 Construction FY14E EV/EBITDA of 5x 9758 5 48,789 13 Real Estate Jaypee Greens real estate‐ NPV 20,755 5 Hospitality Hotels at 6x FY13E EV/EBITDA 2,796.8 6 16,781 4 Wind Power At capital employed 21,637 6 Total standalone EV 313,882 FY14E net debt 145,815 Target standalone equity Value 168,068 81 Jaypee Infratech Real estate 101,501 BOT‐Yamuna Expressway 1,577 Tolling rights‐Noida Greater Noida Espressway (1,032) JAL's stake in Jaypee Infratech 83.10% Holding company disount 20% Jaypee Infratech for JAL 67,841 33 Jaiprakash Power Ventures Ltd Equity value Total Equity Value of JPVL 89,087 JAL's stake in JPVL 78.2% Holding company disount 20% JPVL value for JAL 55,749 27 Jaypee South and West Cement Capacities 9.8 mtpa at replacement cost at USD 110/t 10 110 56,056 Cement Less: Debt 35,000 Equity value 21,056 Holding company disount 20% JCCL value for JAL 16,845 8 Jaypee Sports City, Gr. Noida 5,828 JPSI stake 91% Holding comppyany disount 20% JPSI value for JAL 4,220 2 Jaypee Himalayan Expressway Book Value 2,345 JAL's stake in JHL 100% Holding company disount 20% JHL for JAL 1,876 1 TOTAL JAL EQUITY VALUE 297,752 151 Source: Edelweiss research 8 ISIEmergingMarketsPDF in-jaipuriaimdemo from 203.190.147.205 on 2013-01-06 04:59:10 EST.
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