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Jaiprakash Associates Initiating Coverage Jaiprakash Associates Initiating Coverage REDUCE Risky Association Jaiprakash Associates (JAL) is one of the largest Infrastructure conglomerates in India Price Rs139 with a presence in varied sectors like Cement, Real Estate, Power and Construction and Target Price Rs112 EPC (C&EPC). JAL targets to become one of the Top-3 cement companies, be one of the largest Real Estate developers in India, have a Power portfolio of 5,945MW, and have Investment Period 12 months 1,212km of Expressways with tolling rights. Our estimates suggest that JAL would require Rs50,000cr of funding (particularly for the Yamuna and Ganga Expressway projects), which Stock Info we believe would be a herculean task to achieve. Further, achieving financial closure for all Sector Infrastructure its power projects would also be difficult. Moreover, considering the poor demand outlook for the Real Estate Sector and the challenges emerging in the Cement Sector in terms of an Market Cap (Rs cr) 16,437 oversupply situation getting created, we believe the going may be tough for the Beta 1.5 company. This makes us apprehensive of the returns from JAL's expansion plans and thus Initiate Coverage on the stock with a Reduce rating and SOTP Target Price of 52 Week High / Low 297/47 Rs112/share, implying a downside of 20% from current levels. Avg Daily Volume 5,149,225 Major Segments face strong Headwinds: JAL has interests in the Cement and Real Face Value (Rs) 2 Estate Sectors. We believe that JAL will have to tackle the strong headwinds that these Sectors are facing as demand continues to dwindle and credit availability remains weak. BSE Sensex 11,403 Capacity Expansion+ Stretched Balance Sheet+ Slowing Demand = Ominous Signs: Nifty 3,474 JAL has been in businesses (C&EPC+Cement+Power), which generated consistent cash flows. However, in recent times, it has ventured into Sectors (Real Estate + BOT), which are cash guzzlers and stretched its Balance Sheet. JAL has substantially BSE Code 532532 expanded in the Cement Sector, which we expect will face an excess supply scenario and NSE Code JPASSOCIAT affect JAL's overall profitability. Increased capacity, stretched Balance Sheet and the Reuters Code JAIA.BO ongoing slowdown are some of the challenges that JAL would have to combat going ahead. Street factoring in projects with long gestation: JAL is in projects with long Bloomberg Code JPA@IN gestation periods with no near-term Revenue visibility and which are expected to impact Cash flows of its other divisions. We see street factoring in the substantial pipeline Shareholding Pattern (%) of projects beyond FY2011. We have however, been conservative and factored in only projects that have achieved financial closure/are under construction. Thus, we believe current Promoters 45.3 valuations factor in all the positives. However, any under deliverance by JAL could weigh MF / Banks / Indian FIs 16.4 heavily on the stock price going ahead. FII / NRIs / OCBs 24.9 Key Financials Indian Public / Others 12.4 Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E Net Sales 4,274 6,016 8,773 11,258 Abs. 3 m 1yr 3yr % chg 19.4 40.8 45.8 28.3 Sensex (%) 23.5 (34.4) (3.8) Net Profit 609.9 881.6 1,145.8 1,262.9 % chg 46.9 44.5 30.0 10.2 JAL (%) 99.6 (47.8) 23.2 FDEPS (Rs) 5.1 7.4 9.6 10.6 Shailesh Kanani EBITDA Margin (%) 32.4 30.8 30.6 28.6 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 321 P/E (x) 27.0 18.7 14.4 13.1 E-mail: [email protected] RoE (%) 16.3 17.2 18.5 17.4 RoCE (%) 10.6 10.6 13.8 13.1 Aniruddha Mate P/BV (x) 3.6 2.9 2.5 2.1 Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 335 EV/Sales (x) 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.6 E-mail: [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 16.6 12.8 9.9 8.9 Source: Company, Angel Research; Price as on April 29, 2009 JanuaryMay 4, 2009 30, 2008 For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration NoNo :: INB 010996539 1 Jaiprakash Associates Infrastructure Business Overview JAL is a diversified JAL, the flagship company of Jaypee Group, was set up in 1958 by Jai Prakash Gaur, who infrastructure conglomerate started as a small-time construction contractor in Kota (Rajasthan). Later, the company also with interests in Construction forayed into the Cement business by setting up a 1mtpa capacity cement plant at Rewa in and EPC, Cement and Real Madhya Pradesh. Currently, the Jaypee Group is the third largest cement producer in the Estate country with an installed capacity of 18mtpa. In the Central region, the Jaypee Group leads with 26% market share followed by ACC 14%, Grasim 12%, Century Textiles 12% and Birla Corporation 8%. Whereas others account for the balance 28% of the market share. Leveraging on its construction skills, JAL also forayed into the Power and Real Estate Sector. In fact, JAL is one of the largest private independent Hydro Power producers in India with an attributable capacity of 514MW (installed and operational capacity of 700MW). Thus, JAL is a diversified infrastructure conglomerate with interests in Construction and EPC, Cement and Real Estate, which contributed 51.5%, 39.7% and 7.3% of its FY2009E Revenues. Exhibit 1: Corporate Structure Jaiprakash Associates Ltd (JAL) Construction Real Estate Cement Power (US$2.3bn) & Hospitality 100% 63% Jaiprakash Hydro Power Ltd Jaypee Green Jaypee Cement (Baspa -II-300 MW) (part of JAL) 98% Jaypee Infratech Ltd 74% Bhilai Jaypee Cement Ltd Jaypee Power Grid Ltd 74% (Yamuna Expressway) (JV with SAIL) (Transmission) 70% 72% Jaypee Hotels Ltd 100% MP Jaypee Minerals Ltd Gujarat Anjan Cement Ltd 100% Jaypee Ganga 100% Jaypee Karcham Hydro Co. Ltd Infrastructure Corp. Ltd 100% Gujarat Jaypee Cement (1,000 MW) Infra Ltd 81% 100% Himalayan Expressway Ltd Jaypee Power Ventures Ltd 74% Bokaro Jaypee Cement Ltd 100% Vishnuprayag (J V with SAIL) (400 MW) 89% Lower Siang (2,000 MW) Cement 89% Hirong (500 MW) Hydro Power 100% Nigrie Thermal Power Plant Thermal Power (1,320MW) Real Estate & Hospitality 74% Kynshi - II (450 MW) 74% Umngot (270 MW) Source: Company, Angel Research MayJanuary 4, 2009 30, 2008 For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration No No :: INBINB 010996539 2 Jaiprakash Associates Infrastructure Construction and EPC (C&EPC) C&EPC has been JAL's forte Construction and EPC has been JAL's forte and it has to its credit a four-decade long expertise and it has to its credit a in the construction of river valley and hydro power projects on a turnkey basis. The company four-decade long expertise in has the distinction of simultaneously executing 13 hydro power projects spread across six the construction of river states and in neighbouring Bhutan. The company has a total Order book of Rs11,000cr, of which valley and hydro power 72% is accounted by captive orders, while the balance is accounted by external orders. projects on a turnkey basis Cement- Central Play The states of MP and UP The states of MP and UP (Central India) account for 15.5% of the all-India installed cement account for 15.5% of the capacity of 175.7mtpa. JAL is a prominent player in Central India with a cement capacity of all-India installed cement 13.5mtpa. JAL plans to further augment its capacity in this region by 10.4mtpa, which is capacity of 175.7mtpa. expected to go on-stream by FY2010. JAL has a strategically located clinker capacity in Uttar Pradesh (UP, limestone hub) and grinding capacity in Madhya Pradesh (MP, one of the largest cement markets) on account of which its transportation costs are lower. We believe major demand drivers for the Cement Sector in this region going ahead are immense with infrastructure developments including the Harsi Main Canal project in Gwalior, SEZs coming up in Noida and the 1,047km Ganga Expressway (to be developed by JAL) which are expected to boost cement consumption in this region. However, we expect cement capacity to get cluttered particularly in this region over the next couple of years. Power: Hydro and Thermal Power Plants JAL is the market leader in In view of the vast latent hydro power potential of India, JAL ventured into private hydro power private hydro power plants generation on a build-own-operate (BOO) basis. JAL is the market leader in private hydro power with an installed and plants with an installed and operational capacity of 700MW (Baspa II and Vishnuprayag hydro operational capacity of power plants). JAL had the distinction of participating in 54% of new hydro power projects under 700MW the Tenth Five-year Plan. JAL's Power Portfolio Projects Operational/ Under Construction z Baspa-II is a 300MW operational project under JAL's subsidiary, Jaiprakash Hydro-Power (JHPL). z Vishnuprayag is a 400MW operational project under JAL's subsidiary, Jaiprakash Power Ventures (JPVL). z Karcham Wangtoo is a 1,000MW under construction project under JAL's subsidiary, Jaypee Karcham Hydro Corp (JKHCL). Projects yet to achieve financial closure z Arunachal Pradesh projects of 2,500MW (Lower Siang 2,000MW and 500MW Hirong) expected to be commissioned by 2015. z Meghalaya 720MW (270MW Umngot and 450MW Kynshi) expected to be commissioned by 2016. JanuaryMay 4, 2009 30, 2008 For For Private Private Circulation Circulation Only Only - -Sebi Sebi Registration Registration NoNo :: INB 010996539 3 Jaiprakash Associates Infrastructure JAL has also ventured into thermal power generation and has plans to set up a thermal power plant of 1,320MW (2X660MW) at Nigrie in MP by 2012.
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