ELITE PURGES IN DICTATORSHIPS ADISSERTATION PRESENTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI-COLUMBIA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY BY EDWARD GOLDRING DR.SHEENA GREITENS AND DR.LARON WILLIAMS,DISSERTATION CO-SUPERVISORS MAY 2020 The undersigned, appointed by the dean of the Graduate School, have examined the PhD Dissertation entitled Elite Purges in Dictatorships presented by Edward Goldring , a candidate for the degree of PhD in Political Science , and hereby certify that, in their opinion, it is worthy of acceptance. Professor Laron Williams Professor Sheena Chestnut Greitens Professor A. Cooper Drury Professor Michael Wahman Professor Seunkwon You Acknowledgments This project is the intellectual grandchild in very different ways of two scholars: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Laron Williams. Sheena has taught me so much about authoritar- ianism, East Asia, writing, fieldwork, and more. She gave me the confidence to pursue a challenging project that I was passionate about. She helped me develop the argument, research design, and assuaged my doubts about the project in moments of panic. I am extremely grateful to Sheena and know that even though I am technically no longer her advisee, I will continue to learn from her in years to come. I also owe much to the mentorship of Laron Williams. Laron advised me alongside Sheena at graduate school and he has been an incredible source of support on this project and my broader graduate education. I have learned so much from Laron about scientific research, research methods, publishing, and academia in general. I am extremely grateful that Laron showed an interest in my work throughout graduate school. My research is immeasurably better for his advice. I would also not have been able to produce this work without Michael Wahman. Michael has supported my work from my first year of graduate school and has been a fantastic mentor and collaborator on other projects. He unhesitatingly gives up his time to read drafts, and unfailingly provides insightful feedback. Also at Missouri, I am grate- ful to A. Cooper Drury, Seungkwon You, Cheehyung ‘Harrison’ Kim, Sang Kim, and ii Jonathan ‘Vanya’ Krieckhaus, the last of whom sat through many discussions of all my thankfully unseen dissertation ideas. During my final two years of graduate school, I was fortunate to have predoctoral fellowships at the London School of Economics and Political Science, and the University of Southern California. At the LSE, I am grateful to Tasha Fairfield, Chelsea Johnson, Stephane Wolton, and especially Catherine Boone. At USC, David Kang, Gloria Koo, John Park, Sheery Zaks, and especially Jonathan Markowitz all gave up hours of their time to support my research. I presented parts of this project at several institutions. I am grateful to participants in workshops who took the time to read and comment on this work at: the University of Cal- ifornia Merced, the University of California San Diego, Emory University, the University of Michigan, the University of Missouri, and the University of Southern California. I am extremely thankful to all the South Koreans and North Koreans who gave up their time to be interviewed for various aspects of the work. Their expertise was cru- cial to challenging my ideas about how dictators conduct purges, while their universal good humor and shared fascination in elite politics on the Korean Peninsula made the interviews a thoroughly enjoyable experience. Relatedly, thank you to several students in America and South Korea who provided fantastic research assistance: Celeste Sihyun Park, MinSong Im, and Joanne Lee. This research was supported by generous financial support from: the Korea Founda- tion, the University of Michigan, the University of Missouri, and the University of South- ern California. I dedicate this work to my parents: Adrian and Shirley. My parents provided incom- parable support for their children’s education. For that and many sacrifices, I know my brothers and I are extremely grateful. I hope they appreciate this research and consider it small compensation for one of the greatest gifts: an education. iii George Orwell wrote that: “Writing a book is a horrible, exhausting struggle, like a long bout of some painful illness. One would never undertake such a thing if one were not driven on by some demons whom one can neither resist nor understand.” Writing a book is undoubtedly a struggle, at times painful, but for the most part enor- mously interesting and satisfying. The part about demons, however, is true. Thank you for taking the time to read my work. I hope you enjoy it and agree that it was a worthwhile endeavor. iv Table of Contents Acknowledgments ii List of Tables ix List of Figures xi Abstract xii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 The Importance of Understanding Elite Purges ................. 5 1.2 What is a Purge? ................................... 8 1.2.1 Existing Definitions ............................. 9 1.2.2 A New Conceptualization of a Purge .................. 15 1.3 Overview of the Manuscript ............................ 28 2 Explaining Elite Purges 31 2.1 Structures of Authoritarian Politics ........................ 33 2.1.1 The Autocratic Threat Environment and Elite Purges ......... 33 2.1.2 Dictators and Their Elites ......................... 37 v 2.2 Cross-National Explanations of Elite Purges ................... 38 2.2.1 Punishment: Purging Disloyal Elites ................... 38 2.2.2 Scapegoating: Purges of Loyal Elites ................... 47 2.3 Within-Regime Individual-level Explanations of Elite Purges ......... 51 2.3.1 Distinguishing Disloyal from Loyal Elites ................ 51 2.3.2 Heightened Non-elite Threats and Different Purposes of Purges ... 56 2.3.3 Connecting Elites to Heightened Non-elite Threats .......... 56 2.4 Empirical Expectations ............................... 59 2.5 Alternative Explanations .............................. 64 2.5.1 Alternative Explanations for Cross-National Patterns of Elite Purges 64 2.5.2 Alternative Explanations for Within-regime Individual-level Patterns of Elite Purges ................................ 67 2.6 Research Design ................................... 69 2.6.1 A Mixed Methods Approach ....................... 69 2.6.2 Scope ..................................... 72 2.6.3 Individual-level Country Contexts and Case Selection ........ 73 3 The Causes of Elite Purges 78 3.1 Research Design ................................... 79 3.1.1 Identifying Autocracies .......................... 79 3.1.2 Measuring Purges ............................. 87 3.1.3 Measuring Non-Elite Threats ....................... 89 3.1.4 Control Variables and Model Specification ............... 91 vi 3.2 Results ........................................ 92 3.2.1 Alternative Explanations and Robustness Tests ............. 98 3.3 Conclusion ...................................... 99 4 Elite Purges in North Korea 101 4.1 Background to Elite Politics and Purges in North Korea ............102 4.2 Research Design ...................................106 4.2.1 Data .....................................107 4.2.2 Dependent Variable: Elite Purge .....................115 4.2.3 Independent Variables ...........................117 4.3 Results ........................................121 4.3.1 Alternative Explanations .........................123 4.3.2 Robustness Tests ..............................125 4.3.3 An Illustrative Case: Jang Song Thaek ..................127 4.4 Conclusion ......................................129 5 Elite Purges in South Korea 131 5.1 Historical Background and Case Selection ....................132 5.1.1 Park Chung-hee and the May 16 Military Coup d’etat´ .........133 5.1.2 Case Selection ................................136 5.2 Purges of Disloyal Elites ..............................140 5.2.1 Chang Do-yong ...............................140 5.2.2 Kim Tong-ha ................................148 vii 5.3 Purges of Loyal Elites ................................154 5.3.1 Kim Chong-p’il ...............................154 5.4 Conclusion ......................................160 6 Conclusion 161 6.1 Contributions ....................................163 6.2 Questions for Future Research ...........................166 6.2.1 Elite Purges as Interdependent Events ..................166 6.2.2 Elite Purges and Authoritarian Survival .................167 6.2.3 Purges Beyond Autocracies ........................167 6.3 Conclusion ......................................168 7 Vita 170 viii List of Tables 1.1 Definitions of Purges in Previous Political Science Studies ........... 10 1.2 Breakdown of How Previous Political Science Studies Define Purges .... 18 1.3 Characteristics to Include in the Definition of a Purge ............. 26 1.4 An Outline of the Manuscript’s Empirical Analyses of Elite Purges ..... 29 2.1 Causal Processes of Purge or Retention of a Disloyal Elite ........... 62 2.2 Causal Processes of Purge or Retention of a Loyal Elite ............ 63 3.1 Autocratic Leaders Analyzed, 1992-2015 ..................... 84 3.2 Positions of Civilian and Military Elites in Dictatorships ............ 88 3.3 Summary Statistics of Variables from Cross-National Analysis of Auto- cratic Elite Purges, 1992-2015 ........................... 92 3.4 Effects of Popular and External Threats on Autocratic Elite Purges, 1992-2015 93 3.5 Changes in Predicted Probability of Elite Purge Based on Variation in Democ- racy mobilization and Geopolitical competition, Across Sub-types of Autocracies 97 3.6