Understanding the impact of hydropower developments in the context of upstream– downstream relations in the Mekong river basin Claudia Kuenzer, Ian Campbell, Marthe Roch, Patrick Leinenkugel, Vo Quoc Tuan & Stefan Dech Sustainability Science ISSN 1862-4065 Sustain Sci DOI 10.1007/s11625-012-0195-z 1 23 Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Japan. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be self-archived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your work, please use the accepted author’s version for posting to your own website or your institution’s repository. You may further deposit the accepted author’s version on a funder’s repository at a funder’s request, provided it is not made publicly available until 12 months after publication. 1 23 Author's personal copy Sustain Sci DOI 10.1007/s11625-012-0195-z OVERVIEW ARTICLE Understanding the impact of hydropower developments in the context of upstream–downstream relations in the Mekong river basin Claudia Kuenzer • Ian Campbell • Marthe Roch • Patrick Leinenkugel • Vo Quoc Tuan • Stefan Dech Received: 31 May 2012 / Accepted: 21 October 2012 Ó Springer Japan 2012 Abstract Hydropower developments along the main upstream–downstream relations are not really clear-cut. stem of the Mekong River and its tributaries cause trans- This conclusion is based on a consideration of the complex boundary effects within the Mekong Basin Region, which power play between Mekong riparians, with a focus on comprises parts of six countries. On the one hand, the recent power trade interactions. The article investigates the provision of hydropower triggers economic development consequences of hydropower dams for the Mekong region and helps to meet the rising energy demand of the Mekong as well as the role of supranational players, such as the riparian countries, especially China, Thailand, and Mekong River Commission and the Greater Mekong Vietnam. On the other hand, the negative impact of dam Subregion Initiative, on the hydropower debate. It is not construction, mainly altered water flow and sediment load, nations that are the winners or losers in the hydropower has severe impacts on the environment and the livelihoods schemes in the Mekong, but rather parts of the riparian of the rural Mekong population. Several discrepancies exist population: a few influential and powerful elites versus the in the needs, demands, and challenges of upstream versus large mass of rural poor. downstream countries. Against the common apprehension that downstream countries are powerlessly exposed to Keywords Mekong river basin Á Hydropower mainly negative impacts whereas upstream countries uni- development Á Dams Á River ecology Á Mekong River laterally benefit from hydropower, the authors argue that Commission Á Greater Mekong Subregion Á Riparians Á Electricity trade Á Power grid Handled by Soontak Lee, Yeungnam University, Korea. Introduction C. Kuenzer (&) Á P. Leinenkugel Á S. Dech German Earth Observation Centre, EOC, German Aerospace The Mekong is the world’s ninth largest river, flowing for Centre, DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, 82234 Wessling, Germany over 4,900 km from its source on the Qinghai Tibet Plateau e-mail: [email protected] at 5,200 m elevation to the Mekong delta in Vietnam. On its way it passes through six countries: China, Myanmar, Laos, I. Campbell GHD Australia, Melbourne, Australia Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The riparian population within the basin comprises over 72 million inhabitants I. Campbell (Campbell 2009). Both economic wealth and population, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia particularly in the urban centres, have grown remarkably. M. Roch This dynamic is accompanied by a growing demand for Centre for Geoinformatics, University of Salzburg, electricity, first and foremost in China, Thailand, and Salzburg, Austria Vietnam. China needs power to sustain its growth in GDP, still above 6–7 %; Thailand’s government estimates that the V. Q. Tuan College of Environmental Sciences, country’s electricity demands will double to 58,000 mega- Can Tho University, Can Tho, Vietnam watts (MW) by 2021 (EGAT 2008); Vietnam’s government 123 Author's personal copy Sustain Sci estimates a quadrupling to 40,700 MW by 2015 (EVN power, especially in political, military, and economic terms, 2006). Due to so far limited exploitation of the river sys- complicates the situation (Ratner 2003; Backer 2006; Molle tem’s hydropower potential (currently only 10 %), the and Floch 2008). Mekong countries’ governments foster large-scale hydro- The relationship between China and Vietnam, for power projects within their territories. In public media as instance, is strongly impacted by Vietnam’s resistance to well as in the scientific literature these developments are its giant northern neighbour, which shaped today’s often analysed or discussed under the assumption that Vietnamese national identity. In 112 BC northern Vietnam downstream countries are powerlessly exposed to the was incorporated in the Chinese Han Empire, and China actions of unilaterally benefiting upstream nations (e.g. ruled Vietnam for over 1,000 years until AD 939 (Dosch Garcia 2012). However, much of the information required and Vuving 2008). In the late 1970s, as a consequence of to judge the complex situation is still missing. According to Vietnam’s intrusion into Cambodia, China and western the Vietnamese Ministry of Natural Resources and the countries cut off Vietnam’s development aid, and in 1979 Environment, MONRE, ‘‘Viet Nam and its riparian neigh- China invaded northern Vietnam. A brief but bloody border bours do not have an adequate scientific understanding for war (Third Indochina War) was fought. China argues that informed decision making on Mekong projects; especially the reasons for the invasion were mistreatment of ethnic with respect to downstream effects of upstream dams.’’ Chinese in Vietnam, the Vietnamese occupation of the (MONRE 2012:1). Spratly Islands, as well as Vietnamese intrusion into The goal of this paper is to provide a comprehensive Cambodia. Even today, these countries still have disputes overview and presentation of the upstream–downstream over the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea relations of the riparian countries in the light of past (Dosch and Vuving 2008). At the same time, China has and present hydropower development and its expected been Vietnam’s top trading partner since 2005, with a trade future impact. The questions addressed by this paper volume exceeding 40 billion USD in 2011. Given the long include: history of conflict, mutual distrust characterises the bilat- eral relationship—and probably will continue to do so for • What is the geopolitical and socio-economic setting for many more decades (Will 2010). The situation is not eased the hydropower debate of the Mekong riparians? by China’s position as a very powerful and the most • What defining physicogeographical factors influence upstream Mekong country versus Vietnam’s location fur- the hydropower potential in the Mekong Basin? thest downstream, making it the most vulnerable of all • What is the prevailing public notion concerning Mekong nations (Ratner 2003). upstream and downstream roles in the current hydro- Other riparian relations are similarly difficult. In the power debate? 1950s and 1960s border conflicts characterised the rela- • What are the impacts of upstream dams on downstream tionship between Thais and Cambodians, Thai and Lao, localities with respect to water flow? and Cambodians and Vietnamese (Makim 2002). Viet- • What are the consequences of upstream dams in namese–Cambodian relations remain difficult due to the downstream localities with respect to sediment flow? Vietnamese invasion during the Pol Pot regime and to • Are upstream–downstream interests clear cut? Are currently increasing Vietnamese economic influence. downstream countries powerlessly exposed to unilater- Thailand actively supported the Khmer Rouge. It thus has ally benefiting upstream nations? pre-programmed rivalries with Vietnam that broke open in • Which players most influence the hydropower debate? the 1970s and 1980s. Thailand—the only Mekong riparian that had never been under colonial rule—now welcomes the integration of China into riparian discussions as it Current geopolitical and socio-economic setting hopes ‘to build coalitions against potential efforts to pre- of the six Mekong riparians vent large-scale development upstream’ (Schmeier 2010: 36). Despite historic grudges, these current close Sino–Thai Each of the six Mekong riparians has a complex history of relations are also a source of anger for Vietnam. Thailand power relations with its neighbours, which still influences and Myanmar also had and have substantial border-related their perceptions and dialogue. However, the six countries disputes relating to cross-border movement of minorities that share a common border, natural resources, and a long associated with forced relocation (Grundy-Warr and Wong history of frequently alternating war and peace currently Siew Yin 2002). Another conflict line exists between experience more peace and stability in the region than at any Thailand and Laos, as Thailand supported the United States point in their history. Power distribution within the Mekong while Laos followed a Communist path during the Indo- is defined particularly by strategic position. Upstream posi- china wars. Up to the present day, several border disputes tions provide considerable power, and China’s additional remain