Constructing a Sequence of Random Walks Strongly Converging to Brownian Motion Philippe Marchal
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Interpolation for Partly Hidden Diffusion Processes*
Interpolation for partly hidden di®usion processes* Changsun Choi, Dougu Nam** Division of Applied Mathematics, KAIST, Daejeon 305-701, Republic of Korea Abstract Let Xt be n-dimensional di®usion process and S(t) be a smooth set-valued func- tion. Suppose X is invisible when X S(t), but we can see the process exactly t t 2 otherwise. Let X S(t ) and we observe the process from the beginning till the t0 2 0 signal reappears out of the obstacle after t0. With this information, we evaluate the estimators for the functionals of Xt on a time interval containing t0 where the signal is hidden. We solve related 3 PDE's in general cases. We give a generalized last exit decomposition for n-dimensional Brownian motion to evaluate its estima- tors. An alternative Monte Carlo method is also proposed for Brownian motion. We illustrate several examples and compare the solutions between those by the closed form result, ¯nite di®erence method, and Monte Carlo simulations. Key words: interpolation, di®usion process, excursions, backward boundary value problem, last exit decomposition, Monte Carlo method 1 Introduction Usually, the interpolation problem for Markov process indicates that of eval- uating the probability distribution of the process between the discretely ob- served times. One of the origin of the problem is SchrÄodinger's Gedankenex- periment where we are interested in the probability distribution of a di®usive particle in a given force ¯eld when the initial and ¯nal time density functions are given. We can obtain the desired density function at each time in a given time interval by solving the forward and backward Kolmogorov equations. -
Markovian Bridges: Weak Continuity and Pathwise Constructions
The Annals of Probability 2011, Vol. 39, No. 2, 609–647 DOI: 10.1214/10-AOP562 c Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2011 MARKOVIAN BRIDGES: WEAK CONTINUITY AND PATHWISE CONSTRUCTIONS1 By Lo¨ıc Chaumont and Geronimo´ Uribe Bravo2,3 Universit´ed’Angers and Universidad Nacional Aut´onoma de M´exico A Markovian bridge is a probability measure taken from a disin- tegration of the law of an initial part of the path of a Markov process given its terminal value. As such, Markovian bridges admit a natural parameterization in terms of the state space of the process. In the context of Feller processes with continuous transition densities, we construct by weak convergence considerations the only versions of Markovian bridges which are weakly continuous with respect to their parameter. We use this weakly continuous construction to provide an extension of the strong Markov property in which the flow of time is reversed. In the context of self-similar Feller process, the last result is shown to be useful in the construction of Markovian bridges out of the trajectories of the original process. 1. Introduction and main results. 1.1. Motivation. The aim of this article is to study Markov processes on [0,t], starting at x, conditioned to arrive at y at time t. Historically, the first example of such a conditional law is given by Paul L´evy’s construction of the Brownian bridge: given a Brownian motion B starting at zero, let s s bx,y,t = x + B B + (y x) . s s − t t − t arXiv:0905.2155v3 [math.PR] 14 Mar 2011 Received May 2009; revised April 2010. -
Patterns in Random Walks and Brownian Motion
Patterns in Random Walks and Brownian Motion Jim Pitman and Wenpin Tang Abstract We ask if it is possible to find some particular continuous paths of unit length in linear Brownian motion. Beginning with a discrete version of the problem, we derive the asymptotics of the expected waiting time for several interesting patterns. These suggest corresponding results on the existence/non-existence of continuous paths embedded in Brownian motion. With further effort we are able to prove some of these existence and non-existence results by various stochastic analysis arguments. A list of open problems is presented. AMS 2010 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60C05, 60G17, 60J65. 1 Introduction and Main Results We are interested in the question of embedding some continuous-time stochastic processes .Zu;0Ä u Ä 1/ into a Brownian path .BtI t 0/, without time-change or scaling, just by a random translation of origin in spacetime. More precisely, we ask the following: Question 1 Given some distribution of a process Z with continuous paths, does there exist a random time T such that .BTCu BT I 0 Ä u Ä 1/ has the same distribution as .Zu;0Ä u Ä 1/? The question of whether external randomization is allowed to construct such a random time T, is of no importance here. In fact, we can simply ignore Brownian J. Pitman ()•W.Tang Department of Statistics, University of California, 367 Evans Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720-3860, USA e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015 49 C. Donati-Martin et al. -
© in This Web Service Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-14577-0
Cambridge University Press 978-0-521-14577-0 - Probability and Mathematical Genetics Edited by N. H. Bingham and C. M. Goldie Index More information Index ABC, approximate Bayesian almost complete, 141 computation almost complete Abecasis, G. R., 220 metrizabilityalmost-complete Abel Memorial Fund, 380 metrizability, see metrizability Abou-Rahme, N., 430 α-stable, see subordinator AB-percolation, see percolation Alsmeyer, G., 114 Abramovitch, F., 86 alternating renewal process, see renewal accumulate essentially, 140, 161, 163, theory 164 alternating word, see word Addario-Berry, L., 120, 121 AMSE, average mean-square error additive combinatorics, 138, 162–164 analytic set, 147 additive function, 139 ancestor gene, see gene adjacency relation, 383 ancestral history, 92, 96, 211, 256, 360 Adler, I., 303 ancestral inference, 110 admixture, 222, 224 Anderson, C. W., 303, 305–306 adsorption, 465–468, 477–478, 481, see Anderson, R. D., 137 also cooperative sequential Andjel, E., 391 adsorption model (CSA) Andrews, G. E., 372 advection-diffusion, 398–400, 408–410 anomalous spreading, 125–131 a.e., almost everywhere Antoniak, C. E., 324, 330 Affymetrix gene chip, 326 Applied Probability Trust, 33 age-dependent branching process, see appointments system, 354 branching process approximate Bayesian computation Aldous, D. J., 246, 250–251, 258, 328, (ABC), 214 448 approximate continuity, 142 algorithm, 116, 219, 221, 226–228, 422, Archimedes of Syracuse see also computational complexity, weakly Archimedean property, coupling, Kendall–Møller 144–145 algorithm, Markov chain Monte area-interaction process, see point Carlo (MCMC), phasing algorithm process perfect simulation algorithm, 69–71 arithmeticity, 172 allele, 92–103, 218, 222, 239–260, 360, arithmetic progression, 138, 157, 366, see also minor allele frequency 162–163 (MAF) Arjas, E., 350 allelic partition distribution, 243, 248, Aronson, D. -
Arxiv:2004.05394V1 [Math.PR] 11 Apr 2020 Not Equal
SIZE AND SHAPE OF TRACKED BROWNIAN BRIDGES ABDULRAHMAN ALSOLAMI, JAMES BURRIDGE AND MICHALGNACIK Abstract. We investigate the typical sizes and shapes of sets of points obtained by irregularly tracking two-dimensional Brownian bridges. The tracking process consists of observing the path location at the arrival times of a non-homogeneous Poisson process on a finite time interval. The time varying intensity of this observation process is the tracking strategy. By analysing the gyration tensor of tracked points we prove two theorems which relate the tracking strategy to the average gyration radius, and to the asphericity { a measure of how non-spherical the point set is. The act of tracking may be interpreted either as a process of observation, or as process of depositing time decaying \evidence" such as scent, environmental disturbance, or disease particles. We present examples of different strategies, and explore by simulation the effects of varying the total number of tracking points. 1. Introduction Understanding the statistical properties of human and animal movement processes is of interest to ecologists [1, 2, 3], epidemiologists [4, 5, 6], criminologists [7], physicists and mathematicians [8, 9, 10, 11], including those interested in the evolution of human culture and language [12, 13, 14]. Advances in information and communication technologies have allowed automated collection of large numbers of human and animal trajectories [15, 16], allowing real movement patterns to be studied in detail and compared to idealised mathematical models. Beyond academic study, movement data has important practical applications, for example in controlling the spread of disease through contact tracing [6]. Due to the growing availability and applications of tracking information, it is useful to possess a greater analytical understanding of the typical shape and size characteristics of trajectories which are observed, or otherwise emit information. -
On Conditionally Heteroscedastic Ar Models with Thresholds
Statistica Sinica 24 (2014), 625-652 doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.5705/ss.2012.185 ON CONDITIONALLY HETEROSCEDASTIC AR MODELS WITH THRESHOLDS Kung-Sik Chan, Dong Li, Shiqing Ling and Howell Tong University of Iowa, Tsinghua University, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology and London School of Economics & Political Science Abstract: Conditional heteroscedasticity is prevalent in many time series. By view- ing conditional heteroscedasticity as the consequence of a dynamic mixture of in- dependent random variables, we develop a simple yet versatile observable mixing function, leading to the conditionally heteroscedastic AR model with thresholds, or a T-CHARM for short. We demonstrate its many attributes and provide com- prehensive theoretical underpinnings with efficient computational procedures and algorithms. We compare, via simulation, the performance of T-CHARM with the GARCH model. We report some experiences using data from economics, biology, and geoscience. Key words and phrases: Compound Poisson process, conditional variance, heavy tail, heteroscedasticity, limiting distribution, quasi-maximum likelihood estimation, random field, score test, T-CHARM, threshold model, volatility. 1. Introduction We can often model a time series as the sum of a conditional mean function, the drift or trend, and a conditional variance function, the diffusion. See, e.g., Tong (1990). The drift attracted attention from very early days, although the importance of the diffusion did not go entirely unnoticed, with an example in ecological populations as early as Moran (1953); a systematic modelling of the diffusion did not seem to attract serious attention before the 1980s. For discrete-time cases, our focus, as far as we are aware it is in the econo- metric and finance literature that the modelling of the conditional variance has been treated seriously, although Tong and Lim (1980) did include conditional heteroscedasticity. -
The Branching Process in a Brownian Excursion
The Branching Process in a Brownian Excursion By J. Neveu Laboratoire de Probabilites Universite P. et M. Curie Tour 56 - 3eme Etage 75252 Paris Cedex 05 Jim Pitman* Department of Statistics University of California Berkeley, California 94720 United States *Research of this author supported in part by NSF Grant DMS88-01808. To appear in Seminaire de Probabilites XXIII, 1989. Technical Report No. 188 February 1989 Department of Statistics University of California Berkeley, California THE BRANCHING PROCESS IN A BROWNIAN EXCURSION by J. NEVEU and J. W. PirMAN t Laboratoire de Probabilit6s Department of Statistics Universit6 Pierre et Marie Curie University of California 4, Place Jussieu - Tour 56 Berkeley, California 94720 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France United States §1. Introduction. This paper offers an alternative view of results in the preceding paper [NP] concerning the tree embedded in a Brownian excursion. Let BM denote Brownian motion on the line, BMX a BM started at x. Fix h >0, and let X = (X ,,0t <C) be governed by Itk's law for excursions of BM from zero conditioned to hit h. Here X may be presented as the portion of the path of a BMo after the last zero before the first hit of h, run till it returns to zero. See for instance [I1, [R1]. Figure 1. Definition of X in terms of a BMo. h Xt 0 A Ad' \A] V " - t - 4 For x > 0, let Nh be the number of excursions (or upcrossings) of X from x to x + h. Theorem 1.1 The process (Nh,x 0O) is a continuous parameter birth and death process, starting from No = 1, with stationary transition intensities from n to n ± 1 of n Ih. -
Arxiv:1910.05067V4 [Physics.Comp-Ph] 1 Jan 2021
A FINITE-VOLUME METHOD FOR FLUCTUATING DYNAMICAL DENSITY FUNCTIONAL THEORY ANTONIO RUSSO†, SERGIO P. PEREZ†, MIGUEL A. DURAN-OLIVENCIA,´ PETER YATSYSHIN, JOSE´ A. CARRILLO, AND SERAFIM KALLIADASIS Abstract. We introduce a finite-volume numerical scheme for solving stochastic gradient-flow equations. Such equations are of crucial importance within the framework of fluctuating hydrodynamics and dynamic density func- tional theory. Our proposed scheme deals with general free-energy functionals, including, for instance, external fields or interaction potentials. This allows us to simulate a range of physical phenomena where thermal fluctuations play a crucial role, such as nucleation and other energy-barrier crossing transitions. A positivity-preserving algorithm for the density is derived based on a hybrid space discretization of the deterministic and the stochastic terms and different implicit and explicit time integrators. We show through numerous applications that not only our scheme is able to accurately reproduce the statistical properties (structure factor and correlations) of the physical system, but, because of the multiplicative noise, it allows us to simulate energy barrier crossing dynamics, which cannot be captured by mean-field approaches. 1. Introduction The study of fluid dynamics encounters major challenges due to the inherently multiscale nature of fluids. Not surprisingly, fluid dynamics has been one of the main arenas of activity for numerical analysis and fluids are commonly studied via numerical simulations, either at molecular scale, by using molecular dynamics (MD) or Monte Carlo (MC) simulations; or at macro scale, by utilising deterministic models based on the conservation of fundamental quantities, namely mass, momentum and energy. While atomistic simulations take into account thermal fluctuations, they come with an important drawback, the enormous computational cost of having to resolve at least three degrees of freedom per particle. -
[Math.PR] 9 May 2002
Poisson Process Partition Calculus with applications to Exchangeable models and Bayesian Nonparametrics. Lancelot F. James1 The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (May 29, 2018) This article discusses the usage of a partiton based Fubini calculus for Poisson processes. The approach is an amplification of Bayesian techniques developed in Lo and Weng for gamma/Dirichlet processes. Applications to models are considered which all fall within an inhomogeneous spatial extension of the size biased framework used in Perman, Pitman and Yor. Among some of the results; an explicit partition based calculus is then developed for such models, which also includes a series of important exponential change of measure formula. These results are then applied to solve the mostly unknown calculus for spatial L´evy-Cox moving average models. The analysis then proceeds to exploit a structural feature of a scaling operation which arises in Brownian excursion theory. From this a series of new mixture representations and posterior characterizations for large classes of random measures, including probability measures, are given. These results are applied to yield new results/identities related to the large class of two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet models. The results also yields easily perhaps the most general and certainly quite informative characterizations of extensions of the Markov-Krein correspondence exhibited by the linear functionals of Dirichlet processes. This article then defines a natural extension of Doksum’s Neutral to the Right priors (NTR) to a spatial setting. NTR models are practically synonymous with exponential functions of subordinators and arise in Bayesian non-parametric survival models. It is shown that manipulation of the exponential formulae makes what has been otherwise formidable analysis transparent. -
Stochastic Flows Associated to Coalescent Processes II
Stochastic flows associated to coalescent processes II: Stochastic differential equations Dedicated to the memory of Paul-Andr´e MEYER Jean Bertoin(1) and Jean-Fran¸cois Le Gall(2) (1) Laboratoire de Probabilit´es et Mod`eles Al´eatoires and Institut universitaire de France, Universit´e Pierre et Marie Curie, 175, rue du Chevaleret, F-75013 Paris, France. (2) DMA, Ecole normale sup´erieure, 45, rue d'Ulm, F-75005 Paris, France. Summary. We obtain precise information about the stochastic flows of bridges that are associated with the so-called Λ-coalescents. When the measure Λ gives no mass to 0, we prove that the flow of bridges is generated by a stochastic differential equation driven by a Poisson point process. On the other hand, the case Λ = δ0 of the Kingman coalescent gives rise to a flow of coalescing diffusions on the interval [0; 1]. We also discuss a remarkable Brownian flow on the circle which has close connections with the Kingman coalescent Titre. Flots stochastiques associ´es a` des processus de coalescence II : ´equations diff´erentielles stochastiques. R´esum´e. Nous ´etudions les flots de ponts associ´es aux processus de coagulation appel´es Λ-coalescents. Quand la mesure Λ ne charge pas 0, nous montrons que le flot de ponts est engendr´e par une ´equation diff´erentielle stochastique conduite par un processus de Poisson ponctuel. Au contraire, le cas Λ = δ0 du coalescent de Kingman fait apparaitre un flot de diffusions coalescentes sur l'intervalle [0; 1]. Nous ´etudions aussi un flot brownien remarquable sur le cercle, qui est ´etroitement li´e au coalescent de Kingman. -
The First Passage Sets of the 2D Gaussian Free Field: Convergence and Isomorphisms Juhan Aru, Titus Lupu, Avelio Sepúlveda
The first passage sets of the 2D Gaussian free field: convergence and isomorphisms Juhan Aru, Titus Lupu, Avelio Sepúlveda To cite this version: Juhan Aru, Titus Lupu, Avelio Sepúlveda. The first passage sets of the 2D Gaussian free field: convergence and isomorphisms. Communications in Mathematical Physics, Springer Verlag, 2020, 375 (3), pp.1885-1929. 10.1007/s00220-020-03718-z. hal-01798812 HAL Id: hal-01798812 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01798812 Submitted on 24 May 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. THE FIRST PASSAGE SETS OF THE 2D GAUSSIAN FREE FIELD: CONVERGENCE AND ISOMORPHISMS. JUHAN ARU, TITUS LUPU, AND AVELIO SEPÚLVEDA Abstract. In a previous article, we introduced the first passage set (FPS) of constant level −a of the two-dimensional continuum Gaussian free field (GFF) on finitely connected domains. Informally, it is the set of points in the domain that can be connected to the boundary by a path along which the GFF is greater than or equal to −a. This description can be taken as a definition of the FPS for the metric graph GFF, and it justifies the analogy with the first hitting time of −a by a one- dimensional Brownian motion. -
Arxiv:Math/0605484V1
RANDOM REAL TREES by Jean-Fran¸cois Le Gall D.M.A., Ecole normale sup´erieure, 45 rue d’Ulm, 75005 Paris, France [email protected] Abstract We survey recent developments about random real trees, whose pro- totype is the Continuum Random Tree (CRT) introduced by Aldous in 1991. We briefly explain the formalism of real trees, which yields a neat presentation of the theory and in particular of the relations between dis- crete Galton-Watson trees and continuous random trees. We then discuss the particular class of self-similar random real trees called stable trees, which generalize the CRT. We review several important results concern- ing stable trees, including their branching property, which is analogous to the well-known property of Galton-Watson trees, and the calculation of their fractal dimension. We then consider spatial trees, which combine the genealogical structure of a real tree with spatial displacements, and we explain their connections with superprocesses. In the last section, we deal with a particular conditioning problem for spatial trees, which is closely related to asymptotics for random planar quadrangulations. R´esum´e Nous discutons certains d´eveloppements r´ecents de la th´eorie des ar- bres r´eels al´eatoires, dont le prototype est le CRT introduit par Aldous en 1991. Nous introduisons le formalisme d’arbre r´eel, qui fournit une pr´esentation ´el´egante de la th´eorie, et en particulier des relations entre les arbres de Galton-Watson discrets et les arbres continus al´eatoires. Nous discutons ensuite la classe des arbres auto-similaires appel´es arbres sta- bles, qui g´en´eralisent le CRT.