12 May 22, 2016 Cover Story Lebanon Killing of Badreddine spells trouble for Hezbollah

James Bruce vaunted military to a “divine vic- tory” standstill in a 34-day war in 2006, is in the throes of a transition Beirut from a tight-knit guerrilla group of a few thousand men mounting small- ustafa Amine Badred- unit, hit-and-run attacks against dine, known by his Israel to something akin to a con- nom de guerre Sayyed ventional army with a vast arsenal Zul Fikar — “Sayyed” of 15,000 missiles by Israel’s count. denoting his claim to Hezbollah’s massive growth, Mbeing a descendant of the Prophet largely the result of its 2006 war Mohammad and “Zul Fikar”, the with Israel and its intervention in fabled sword of Imam Ali, the most the Syrian war from 2012, has left it revered of the Shia heroes — died as vulnerable to infiltration by its en- he had lived most of his adult life: emies, particularly Israel and more cloaked in mystery and intrigue. recently Saudi Arabia. It is not even clear who killed him Israel’s intelligence services have because he had more enemies than long penetrated Hezbollah’s once he could count. The circumstances seemingly watertight internal secu- of his death in Damascus on May rity. Scores of Lebanese working for 12th remain murky and outside of Israel, including several army offic- Hezbollah’s notoriously secretive ers, have been uncovered in recent ruling clique it is anyone’s guess years. whether he was killed by the Israe- “Regardless of who was behind lis, Syrian rebels, jihadists or even, the killing, the bottom line is that as some mutter darkly, by Iran or his Badreddine’s death is a significant own people because of rifts over the blow to Hezbollah, operationally war in Syria. and mentally,” observed Nadav Pol- There have been reports that lak and Matthew Levitt of the Israel- Badreddine clashed with Hezbol- friendly Washington Institute for lah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Near East Policy. the party’s military council over his “The incident is also a big blow to Members of Lebanon’s Shia militant group Hezbollah carry a portrait of Mustafa Badreddine during refusal to Iran’s demand he throw the group’s image as undefeatable his funeral in southern Beirut, on May 13th. more of his men into the savage bat- and untouchable. If Badreddine can tle for Aleppo because they had al- be killed in Syria, no Hezbollah com- as being behind the Badreddine kill- it has been transformed into a major them”. ready suffered withering casualties. mander is safe there… Nasrallah will ing but Hezbollah went out of its corporate power with financial fin- Perhaps so. But Hezbollah has eventually need to blame someone, way to point the finger elsewhere. gers in everything from construc- paid a steep price for its Syrian in- There have been in part to show his supporters in These highly visible efforts to avoid tion to retailing. volvement: an estimated 1,200 dead reports that Lebanon that the group does not blaming Israel, its sworn enemy, il- This has left it prey to the kind of — some tallies go as high as 2,000 — Badreddine clashed back down.” lustrate its quandaries — and its systemic corruption that ruined the with triple that number of wound- with Hezbollah’s Israeli infiltration led to the assas- weakness. Palestine Liberation Organisation, ed. That compares with 1,276 dead sination of several Hezbollah lead- Under the arcane rules of Middle from which the embryonic Hezbol- during its entire 1982-2000 guerrilla leader, Hassan ers, most notably Hezbollah’s mili- Eastern warfare, the assassination lah drew its first recruits in the early war against Israel in southern Leba- Nasrallah, and the tary commander Imad Mughniyeh, of someone of Badreddine’s status 1980s, and emasculated its ideologi- non. party’s military Badreddine’s cousin, brother-in-law requires retaliation against a target cal aspiration of restoring Palestine It is hard to know Hezbollah’s council. who was killed in an explosion in of equal value. However, if Hezbol- to its rightful owners. losses for sure because it does not Damascus in February 2008. lah did that, it risks touching off a provide statistics, in part, at least, Hanin Ghaddar, managing editor Four other senior Hezbollah chief- war with Israel, something the Par- Mustafa Amine because if the extent of the losses of the Now Lebanon website and a tains have also been assassinated, ty of God cannot afford while it is Badreddine died as he were known, it could trigger a popu- critic of Hezbollah, observed that all supposedly by Israel in the last 16 pinned down in Syria. had lived most of his lar wave of anger that would leave “whoever was behind the assassina- months, an abysmal security record. Not to do so would mean an enor- adult life: cloaked in the party’s leaders precariously iso- tion, this mood of doubt and suspi- Mughniyeh’s son Jihad was killed mous loss of face, so better then to lated. cion has brought to the surface con- along with other senior Hezbollah blame Syrian rebels, even if the cov- mystery and intrigue. That is a situation that could have cerns that Hezbollah and Lebanon’s figures and an Iranian general Janu- er story is full of holes. strategic implications for Tehran Shia community possess about Iran, ary 15th, 2015, in an Israeli air strike Even before Badreddine’s myste- At home, many Shias in Lebanon, and the army of Lebanese, Iraqi, their main ally and patron in Syria”. in the war-divided Golan Heights, a rious death, Hezbollah’s credibility particularly those whose relatives Syrian, Afghan and Pakistani Shias But his death in a “large explo- clear warning to Iran and its proxy as the region’s most powerful non- are dying in ever-increasing num- it has assembled to do much of its sion” in a warehouse in Hezbollah’s to keep out. Afterwards, Nasrallah state military force was suffering bers in the Syrian inferno, are ques- fighting against the seemingly in- heavily guarded Al Sharaf com- declared: “We in Lebanon’s Islamic because of its inability to carry out tioning why Hezbollah, self-styled coherent jumble of Sunni rebels, Is- pound, part of the military section Resistance are no longer interested Nasrallah’s vow to avenge Mughni- champion of the oppressed, is sup- lamists, Kurds and Turkmen backed of Damascus International Airport, in anything called ‘rules of battle’.” yeh. Eight years on, almost all of at porting a tyrannical regime that is by the United States, Russia, Saudi around midnight May 12th after a But amid Hezbollah’s almost in- least 27 attempts to hit Israeli tar- slaughtering its own people. Arabia and others. meeting with his officers, appears coherent account of the Badreddine gets across the globe have failed. Hezbollah declared in a statement to have been a serious security lapse assassination, Nasrallah’s warning The fallout from the Badreddine that Badreddine’s death, which the James Bruce has written that could not have come at a worse sounds increasingly hollow, a falli- affair also highlights a general di- party said was at the hands of “tak- extensively on Middle Eastern time for Hezbollah. bility that Hezbollah, with its care- minishing of Hezbollah’s image as firi“ Sunni extremists, “will increase security issues for publications The Party of God, which drove the fully cultured image of impregnabil- an enlightened protector of and pro- our commitment and will and per- such as Jane’s Intelligence Review Israelis out of southern Lebanon in ity, cannot afford. vider for Lebanon’s long-marginal- severance in continuing to battle and Jane’s Defence Weekly. He lives 2000, then fought the Jewish state’s The Jewish state was initially seen ised Shias. As its power has grown, these criminal gangs and defeat in Beirut. Hezbollah faces tricky task after Syria commander killed Viewpoint he recent killing of top down on the party’s financial implicating Israel to spare itself “We are in seriously. That is why selecting Hezbollah military resources and the ever-present the obligation of retaliating Syria fighting the right successor is crucial to commander Mustafa Israeli threat. against it, which would spark an generate a positive shock among Badreddine has placed When it comes to experience in unwanted war. for a lost Hezbollah ranks. before the party a espionage, guerrilla warfare and Media reports have spoken cause.” According to a Hezbollah tough choice of fighting, Badreddine has been about several possible successors, A Hezbollah official, the party’s leadership Tselecting a successor who can fill there and done it all. He operated including Badreddine’s nephew, official prepares multiple succession his very large shoes. in Kuwait, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon Mughniyah’s son Mustafa, who is scenarios related to its top Badreddine was a legendary and other places that many of us a bit too young and inexperienced commanders. “We are all under Riad Kahwaji commander who had succeeded might not ever know. He did for the job. Other reports men- constant threat of elimination by an even more famous com- things with his own hands from tioned Ibrahim Aqeel and Imad Israeli and Western agents and mander, Imad Mughniyah, who planting bombs to pulling Shakar, two veterans who worked hence the leadership always has a was assassinated in Damascus triggers, plotting schemes and for Badreddine and Mughniyah number of names ready to fill any eight years ago. carrying them out. He operated before him. Both are on US position that would become Both were shadowy figures who when the world was still caught wanted lists of terrorists for their unexpectedly vacant,” he added. moved around like ghosts up in a Cold War between the East involvement in attacks against “It is not the first time we lose a plotting and striking targets, not and the West and witnessed the Western targets. They have also military commander and will not just in and around Lebanon, but rise of the Islamic Republic of been around and done it all, and be the last. We are on this path to throughout the Middle East and Iran and the birth of Hezbollah. keep very low profile. the death,” he said. beyond. Badreddine is part of a The version released by Hezbollah’s priority now is to Of course, it is not clear how dying breed that will be very hard Hezbollah on the cause of restore morale among party Hezbollah members would feel for Hezbollah to replace, espe- Badreddine’s death does not members, especially the combat- about seeing a commander with cially in a middle of a vicious war seem to hold that much weight. ants on the front lines in Syria. such a career fall in a civil war in of attrition in Syria, an aggres- He was reported to have been The party has suffered heavy Syria instead of fighting Israel or sive US campaign to clamp killed by shrapnel from an losses over the past months on the the West. “We are in Syria artillery shell fired by an Aleppo front and the death of its fighting for a lost cause,” a unknown Syrian rebel group military commander will further Hezbollah official told me two Hezbollah’s priority while he was near his quarters undermine the low morale of the years ago. I wonder how he feels near Damascus International fighters. now. now is to restore Airport. However, well-informed The party wants to pick some- morale among the party intelligence sources in Beirut said body qualified for the job and his Riad Kahwaji is founder and chief he was killed by an Israeli name will have a strong psycho- executive officer of the Institute members. air-dropped weapon that hit his logical impact on Israel. The party for Near East and Gulf Military flat near the airport. Hezbollah is needs a military commander that Analysis (INEGMA) based in Dubai believed to be intent on avoiding Hezbollah’s adversaries will take and Beirut.