Kund Datum Trafikverket 2014-02-26 Projekt GeoVista Nr Minerals in Barents GVR14003 Författare Kund Nr Hans Lindberg, Hans Isaksson TRV 2013/12890

Olof Martinsson

Minerals in Barents

The transportation needs in the Western Barents region

Update: February 2014

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Summary

An increased global demand for mineral commodities has during the latest years led to an expansion of existing mining operations but also to an increased focus on developing existing mineral resources into new mines. The effects of this can be seen internationally in areas with high potential to develop economical mineral resources, such as the Western Barents region. This development puts high demands on the function of existing infrastructure and the development of new transportation solutions. In particular this is true for iron ore mines, where a large portion of the product needs to be transported from a mine to a smelter or a port.

A study made in 2011 for The Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket), “Mineralråvaror i Barentsregionen” /GeoVista, 2011/, highlighted the long-term demands that the minerals industry would be put on the existing transport infrastructure in the Barents region. The study also discussed how industrial development in the region could be stimulated by meeting those transportation demands in an efficient way. Based on the results of the previous study, Trafikverket decided to monitor the development of the minerals industry in the Barents region.

This report, a first update of the 2011 study, is produced within the 3-year cooperation project “Minerals in Barents – Partnership”, and financed by authorities for transport and development of the Northern regions of Sweden, Norway and Finland. The key focus is to report on the development of the minerals industry and in particular study the increased demands on transport systems in the region. The study aims to cover the Western Barents region as a whole.

We have also summed up underlying parameters which control the development of the minerals industry, the relevance of different information emanating from the industry to the planning and development of transport infrastructure, and discussed the effect those external factors, infrastructure in particular, have on regional development. The geological potential for mineral deposits in the Western Barents region is very high, a fact which is internationally well known. The region also offers potential investors low political risk as well as favourable minerals and corporate legislation just to mention a few of the important parameters evaluated in the international competition for investment. Another important parameter is the status of existing infrastructure to transport the products from a developed mine.

The lack of financing for mining projects, which hit the whole industry in 2013, is believed to have a short term negative impact on the development of the industry. However, this is temporary in nature and will only delay the planned projects in the short term. We will most likely to see a faster recovery the longer the current financial problems burden the industry.

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This study on metallic and industrial mineral deposit data in the Barents region has primarily been based on the Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Databases (FODD) and is geographically divided into nine major territories; Troms fylke, Nordland fylke and Finnmark fylke in Norway, Västerbottens län and Norrbottens län in Sweden, Lapland region, Northern Ostrobothnia region and Kainuu region in Finland, and finally Murmanskaya oblast and Republic of Karelia in Russia. In the report we call this area the Western Barents region.

The datasets have been examined, updated, to some extent modified and finally evaluated. The analysis of the deposits is divided in two parts; at first, the current and potentially near future production where metallic as well as industrial minerals, within 5-10 years, is analysed. Secondly, the product potential in the long term, up to 30 years or beyond, covering only metallic deposits, is evaluated.

The mineral potential in the Western Barents region is huge. In the short term, within 10 years, there is currently knowledge of industrial and metallic mineral resources which would yield c. 24,000 Mt (million tonnes) of crude ore resulting in c. 6,700 Mt of products. In a longer term there are indications of metallic (only) mineral resources which potentially can yield in total c. 47,000 Mt of crude ore resulting in c. 10,000 Mt of products, industrial minerals not included.

When it comes to products requiring voluminous transport, Murmansk, Karelia and Norrbotten can be considered as major contributors in the short term, with mineral resources and reserves of totally 7,600 Mt, 3,350 Mt and 6,650 Mt of crude ore, respectively, resulting in 1,940 Mt, 1,560 Mt and 1,540 Mt of potential products, respectively. Currently the total annual product volume constitutes c. 23 Mtpa (million tonnes per annum), 9 Mtpa and 32 Mtpa respectively for the three territories.

It is emphasised that the conclusions come from data with varying degree of uncertainties, larger uncertainties where the projects are at an early stage of development.

The study confirms the scenario previously presented /GeoVista, 2011/ of a considerable increase in product volumes from mines in the Western Barents Region, in the near future as well as in the longer perspective. The product volumes in the region are estimated to increase from today’s 75 Mt/year to 106 Mt/year in 5 years time and 118 Mt/year 10 years from today. Major increases in product volumes, which will affect the transport systems in Sweden and Norway, take place in Norrbotten (currently 32 Mt/year, 50 Mt/year in 5 years time and 61 Mt/year 10 years from today). A similar relative increase, but with smaller product volumes, is seen in Finnish Lapland. Note that product volumes, not volumes of crude ore, are of interest when planning for transportation of minerals. An upgrade of the knowledge of industrial mineral resources and potential is recommended for the future of the project.

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The scenario indicates a strong case for the development of long term transport solutions particularly in Swedish Norrbotten where iron ore production will lead to considerable pressure on existing infrastructure in the years to come. We see a similar scenario in Northern Finland, where the needs to reach a deep harbour favourably could be solved by a joint east-west transport solution from the Sodankylä-Sokli area via Kaunisvaara and Svappavara through Kiruna to Narvik. There are however a number of alternative solutions.

The increased need for transport solutions in the region will require investments, or to be otherwise addressed, in the following areas:

 Increased capacity on Malmbanan, Kiruna – Narvik as well as Malmberget – Luleå. Possibly also including Kiruna – Malmberget.

 A new railway between Svappavaara and Kaunisvaara, optimised in relation to other mineral deposits along the way, like the Vittangi, Lannavaara, Masugnsbyn and Pajala deposit clusters.

 A possible continuation of this route from Kaunisvaara to Kolari, the Hannukainen area and further eastwards to Sodankylä and Sokli. A route that probably also should be optimised following a mineral asset study of the area. Such a study could also be extended to cover a south-north railway route alternative from Kemijärvi to Sodankylä, bending eastwards through the Lapland greenstone belt and optimised according to mineral deposits.

 A transport solution from the Kallak iron deposit being developed in Jokkmokk, possibly including other deposits along the way, a major overhaul of Inlandsbanan between Jokkmokk and Gällivare.

 Possibly a transport solution south-west of Kiruna.

 In the short-medium term Laver, in southern Norrbotten, may produce a large volume of crude ore. However, the product volumes from Laver will be minor.

 Possibly a specific transport solution in western Västerbotten, will be needed since Nickel Mountain now also considers producing an iron concentrate that will impact the transport system in the area.

 In Finland, a transport route to the Mustavaara iron deposit was studied by the Finnish Trafikverket but the project was not identified as of sufficient national economic advantage for mineral and forest transports.

 In Norway, most deposits are located rather close to the sea and thus, transport will be solved from there. The Karasjokk iron ore field in southern Finnmark is one exception.

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It is important to emphasise that estimated production volumes in new mining areas, starting in 5-10 years time from now actually requires that planning and building of such infrastructure commences long before the actual need is safely proven, in order to be in place when the volumes are produced.

Equally important is the understanding that infrastructure is one of the key parameters to stimulate exploration efforts to take place in a particular region. Thus, an infrastructure investment made for a planned development which for some reason becomes modified or postponed, could still result in a positive calculation of return on investment. This is especially true if the location of e.g. a transport corridor for a new railway is optimised with relation to known deposits in the area. Such adjacent deposits are, given the boost of infrastructure in the vicinity, most likely to become contributors to railway fees paying off the investment in the future.

Sweden, Finland and Norway have an interesting opportunity to cooperate, with some of the best known deposits in Europe located in Sweden and Finland and some of the world’s best deep harbours from which to ship the products, located in Norway.

Finally:

When talking about infrastructure needs for an expanding minerals industry, we often think of railway or other means of transport to export the products from the region. What was the first thought when you saw the cover photo? What port is it from, what are they shipping? See below.

Cover photo: Unloading coal for further development of mineral products locally in the region, Port of Luleå. Foto: © Hans Lindberg.

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Table of contents

1 Background ...... 1

2 Introduction ...... 2 2.1 Disclaimer ...... 4

3 Controlling parameters in the industry ...... 5 3.1 Geological potential ...... 5 3.2 Political risk ...... 6 3.3 Minerals legislation ...... 7 3.4 Infrastructure ...... 7 3.5 Access to capital ...... 8 3.6 Market conditions ...... 8 3.7 Varying degree of knowledge ...... 10 3.8 Mined ore versus product to be transported ...... 12

4 Mineral deposits, resources and product potential ...... 13 4.1 Method ...... 13 4.1.1 Current and potentially near future production ...... 14 4.1.2 Product potential in the long term ...... 15 4.1.3 Uncertainties ...... 15 4.2 Result ...... 18 4.2.1 Lapland region - Finland ...... 26 4.2.2 Northern Ostrobothnia region and Kainuu region – Finland ...... 27 4.2.3 Finnmark fylke - Norway ...... 28 4.2.4 Nordland fylke - Norway ...... 29 4.2.5 Troms fylke - Norway ...... 30 4.2.6 Republic of Karelia - Russia ...... 30 4.2.7 Murmanskaya oblast - Russia ...... 31 4.2.8 Norrbottens län - Sweden...... 33 4.2.9 Västerbottens län - Sweden ...... 34 4.2.10 The Western Barents region ...... 35

5 Discussion ...... 37

6 References ...... 44

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1 Background

An increased global demand for mineral commodities has during the latest years led to an expansion of existing mining operations but also to an increased focus on developing existing mineral resources into new mines. We see this happening in Sweden, in the Barents region and in the rest of the world, however only in areas where there is a potential for economical mineral resources to be developed. Increased production in existing mines and opening of new mines put high demands on the function of existing infrastructure. In particular this is true for iron ore mines, where a large portion of the ore needs to be transported as products from a mine to a smelter or a port.

The Swedish Transport Administration (Trafikverket) had in 2011 a government commission to highlight the long-term demands put on the existing transport infrastructure in the Barents region, but also to look into how meeting those demands efficiently could help stimulating industrial development in the region.

The underlying study described the development process from the early stages of exploration to an operating mine /GeoVista, 2011/. It explains the underlying parameters that control the process but also highlights the difficulty of planning and building of infrastructure based on information released about early stages of exploration. The study emphasised the need for existing transport infrastructure to be in place for the large transport volumes expected within the next 5-10 years. However, this chain of events can also be turned backwards in that development of infrastructure in an area with high potential for mineral discovery actually helps stimulating investment into such an area.

The study made in 2011 covered the westernmost part of the Barents region with a focus on Northern Sweden. Once again in the history of Barents cooperation, the study points out the high potential for mineral discoveries in the region. It recommends an east-west focus for industrial development in the region and to strengthen co- operation between mining, transportation and product enhancement in the region.

Finally, since the development from a mineral resource to an operating mine is very uncertain in the early stages of the process, and information continuously gets outdated, monitoring and reporting of activities in the minerals industry was recommended. The purpose of the current project and the aim with this report is to deliver such updates.

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2 Introduction

This report is part of a 3-year cooperation “Minerals in Barents - Partnership” financed under a partnership agreement by the following parties:

 The Swedish Transport Administration, SWEDEN  The Ministry of Enterprise, Energy and Communications, SWEDEN  County Administrative Board of Norrbotten, SWEDEN  Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, Lapland, FINLAND  Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment, North Ostrobothnia, FINLAND  The Finnish Transport Agency, FINLAND  Norwegian Public Roads Administration, NORWAY  Norwegian National Rail Administration, NORWAY

The report constitutes the first update of the information presented in earlier study for Trafikverket, “Mineralråvaror i Barentsregionen” /GeoVista, 2011/. In the previous report, written in Swedish, extensive efforts were made to explain the underlying parameters which control the development of the minerals industry, but also the relevance of different information emanating from the industry to the planning and development of transport infrastructure. The previous report also discussed the larger perspective of external factors influencing the development and how such development of infrastructure, in particular, has a very strong influence on the development in a region. Since the previous report was written in Swedish we will here briefly sum up the controlling parameters and the definitions of classification systems.

The key focus in this update, like in the 2011 report, is to achieve an accurate and early understanding of the demands that development in the minerals industry will have on transport systems in the region. This relates to updates to existing infrastructure as well as planning and building of new infrastructure.

The basic data compiled, directly or indirectly, comes from different sources with variable degree of certainty and commonly only describes an on-the-spot account of the situation. Production in an existing mine is commonly not rapidly changed overnight. On the other hand, new information about new occurrences continuously causes a need for reviews.

We have exclusively used official information, from the Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD), from authorities, company reports, web sites, etc. We have focused our efforts on establishing reliable figures for production, existing or potential, on commodities resulting in a larger impact on the transportation system.

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Geographically the study covers the nine westernmost territories in the Barents region, based on the actual geographical coverage of the FODD database. In this report this area is the referred to as the “Western Barents region”, Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1. The study area, in this report defined as the “Western Barents region”. The current railway network in the region outlined.

Information on industrial minerals is limited compared to data that is available for metallic minerals. The transport needs for industrial mineral products is commonly large and in coming work it is recommended to do something about this imbalance.

Ballast is by volume the largest product in many regions. Due to short transport distances, this commodity is not included in this study. However, there is a considerable potential in existing mines to extend the use of waste rock as ballast.

Of course an ore deposit can (and will) be mined out at some time or by other means be uneconomic, cancelling the production. The word “ore” is after all an economic term and changed conditions will influence the financial strength and viability of any project. However, it is very difficult to predict such events in the future. Furthermore it is very common that new ore is found and the mineral resources expanded causing

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longer production lifetime of a deposit, especially for deposits located in the vicinity of already established production units. Hence, in the time span we are studying, we have not considered such events.

It is emphasised in the report that the processes that control the development of the minerals industry hold uncertainties in various degrees. The earlier in the exploration process the higher uncertainties regarding mineral resources, grades and product volumes.

The different sources of information and limitations in the work are further described in Section 4.

2.1 Disclaimer

Evaluations and results presented in this report are by nature strictly based on compilations, assumptions on and interpretations of the information currently at hand.

Information has been retrieved primarily from the Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD) and through standard internet search engines. The author takes no responsibility for information that has not showed up in such searches. It is likely that relevant information can be found in un-published or proprietary reports which are not publically accessible.

There are always uncertainties and ambiguities in this type of work. Hence, the results should be treated with care. The results should be seen as indicative and should preferably be verified.

Thus, any decision made, based on the outcome of this work, is solely on the client’s responsibility. It is incumbent upon the client to check and approve the information and delivered results and as soon as possible notify GeoVista AB of any complaints or remarks.

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3 Controlling parameters in the industry

The mining industry is international, both when it comes to metal prices and financing of development but also with regard to regulations that apply in different countries. Somewhat simplified the controlling parameters for the industry can be summed up as the following:

 Geological potential  Political risk  Minerals legislation  Infrastructure  Access to capital  Market conditions

Those parameters, or criteria’s, are continuously evaluated by investors and explorers to minimize the generally high risk involved with mineral exploration. They are often used to take the temperature on different countries or regions in the search for mineral commodities.

The above parameters make up the foundation for the decisions to invest in mineral exploration. In general terms, the geological potential is very high in the Barents region, the political risk is low and minerals legislations are favourable, at least in Sweden, Finland and Norway. If all those parameters, as well as infrastructure issues, are in favour, raising the capital is not a problem given that there is a market and a demand for the commodity to be explored for or mined.

The controlling parameters are all a bit different in character. They were in the previously study /GeoVista, 2011/ described in detail but will be summarized here.

3.1 Geological potential

The geological potential in the Barents region is very high, a fact that is internationally well known. It belongs to the northern part of the Fennoscandian Shield which in parts dates back 3.2 billion years. The bedrock in the area has been exposed to a number of geological events which have led to deposition and mobilisation of higher concentrations of minerals.

Known metallic mineral deposits in the Barents region include iron, chrome, copper, zinc, lead, gold, silver, nickel, cobalt, PGE, titanium, vanadium, rare earth metals (REE), niobium, tantalum, zirconium, lithium, etc. The industrial mineral deposits are primarily limestone, dolomite, quartzite, quartz, apatite, nepheline, vermiculite and graphite.

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A large portion of the European supply of minerals, from within the EU, come from the Barents region. In a European perspective the Barents region is an important asset in the ambition to increase the degree of self sufficiency within the EU.

Even if the geology will not change in the foreseeable future, the common knowledge about the potential in the Barents area could well change or be made to change. Government surveys and exploration work in the area contributes to increased knowledge about the geology and mineralisations. Vast areas of the Barents region are covered by glacial till from the latest ice age. What is hidden under the till, especially at greater depth in the bedrock itself, is little known other than in some locations adjacent to old mine sites. The whole area is often described in terms of ”underexplored relative to peers” indicating that the potential for new discoveries is higher than in other areas with similar geology.

The geological composition of the bedrock and the known types of mineral occurrences in the area in general present favourable arguments for further exploration to take place. However, a continued compilation of geological information and marketing of the geological potential are important measures to further develop the interest in the region.

3.2 Political risk

The political risk is generally an issue in countries where legislation, government and the political leadership is unstable or where corruption is widely spread. One of the worst scenarios for a long term investor is to discover an economic deposit in an area where later changes in the political scene could make the investor lose his legal rights to the deposit, in full or partially, over night. Whether this happens by changes in the minerals legislation, altered corporate legislation or changes in minerals taxation doesn’t really matter. It’s a basic parameter which is evaluated before the primary investment is made. Of course there are a few companies that focus on very high risk areas, but then with a full understanding of the risk-reward ratio.

The Barents region is regarded as a politically stable and relatively low risk region of the world, especially Sweden, Finland and Norway. Mineral exploration and mining even more so, are long term commitments and as such need stable conditions under which to operate.

Mining companies can often be seen to market their projects in Sweden with the words: ”Highly ranked low-cost mining and corporate jurisdiction, Sweden”.

The same of course applies to Norway and Finland.

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3.3 Minerals legislation

The minerals legislations in Sweden, Finland and also Norway are considered to be among the better in the world, helping to stimulate the search for new mineral deposits. This should also be seen in the light that all countries have well developed minerals legislation and in many perspectives also very clear environmental legislation.

All three countries have recently presented national mineral strategies developed with the same aim as the EU Minerals strategy from 2008 /European Commission, 2008/ which was based on three pillars:

 Fair and sustainable supply of raw materials from global markets  Fostering sustainable supply within the EU  Boosting resource efficiency and promoting recycling

The national strategies all indicate that it’s the purpose of each nation to stimulate the development of mineral deposits. This is in line with the EU Minerals strategy. They are all living documents in the sense that considerable efforts are made to implement a number of addressed improvements in each country. Among the fields of priority is increased resource efficiency, improved dialogue with stakeholders in society, regional development, improvement of the legal framework, research and innovation as well as investment in the necessary infrastructure. High on the agenda has been to speed up the permitting processes through the courts for development of new mines.

3.4 Infrastructure

The existence of well developed infrastructure (commonly referring to railway, roads, power lines etc.) is often one of a list of attractive arguments presented in fund raising for exploration projects in the Barents region. In particular for development of mines where a large portion of the mined ore is to be shipped as products to port (e.g. iron ore) the existence of railway or other means of transport is key to development.

While development of infrastructure is important for mineral deposits to become economically viable, the opposite is often also the case. Development of new infrastructure, if carefully planned through areas of high mineral potential, will raise the potential in such areas and stimulate to further investment, not only in the minerals industry but also in other industries.

Infrastructure, which is possible for a nation or a region to influence, is quite likely the most efficient tool to stimulate mineral exploration in an area such as the Western Barents Region.

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Studies of the need for expanded infrastructure, partly due to planned mining expansion, have during the last years been compiled by the Scandinavian Governments, e.g. Svenska Trafikverket /2011/ and Finska Trafikverket /2013/ and Norska Vägverket /2010, 2011/.

3.5 Access to capital

Financing is global and this applies in particular to mineral investment. The majority of mineral exploration is financed from the stock exchange, quite often from Sydney, London, Toronto or Vancouver. The other major source of financing comes from major mining companies in the world. The interaction between junior, intermediate and major companies in the process of exploration and mine development was described in detail in the previous study /GeoVista, 2011/. It is an important mechanism in the industry.

3.6 Market conditions

The demand for metals and minerals is to a major extent dependent on the global market growth and in the latest years the focus has been on the development in China. Many market analysts believe that metal prices will stabilize on a somewhat lower level than previous years, but still much higher than ten years ago. Typically metal prices are cyclic in a shorter term but looking back ten years many metals has shown a trend of doubling the price, like for iron ore and copper, Figure 3-1. Zinc and lead has followed a similar pattern /SGU, 2014/.

However, nickel and aluminium doesn´t follow that trend, showing larger fluctuations, growing stock and currently only a small growth on a longer term. Certain metals show more dramatic trends, like gold and REE, Figure 3-1. Gold is probably the oldest market metal and to a large extent a thermometer on the world economy (enough said). REE are rather new metals on the market and both the production (mine development) and consumers are still finding the forms for interacting. If prices on metals rise to high levels there will always also be a market for competing materials, e.g. replacing a REE metal.

Prices on industrial minerals are to a large extent dependent on the quality and degree of purity in the delivered products and do not follow the same market conditions as metals normally do.

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a)

b) c)

d)

Figure 3-1. Metal prices, a) iron ore b) copper (including stock) c) gold and d) REE. Source: SGU Metaller och mineral, Januari 2014

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3.7 Varying degree of knowledge

In discussing the above parameters it is important to understand the process from an early exploration project or idea to an operational mine, which can be shown by a time-line figure from Boliden, Figure 3-2. The figure demonstrates how out of 1000- 10000 possible mineral targets in a early stage of exploration, after comprehensive testing and evaluation, the acquired knowledge only allows a few of the original targets to reach a decision to commence production. All the others fail or need to await further studies or better economic conditions.

Figure 3-2. The process from early exploration to the start of a mine. Source: Boliden annual report 2010 (Swedish text). Any idea of an exploration target or potential mineral deposit requires a number of different surveys, tests and permits to bring it from idea to a stage where a decision of starting up a mine can be taken. Decisions to continue a project, or to abandon it, are continuously made in the light of new knowledge and most projects don’t make it all the way. The statistics in Sweden is that 1 out of 200 approved exploration licences make it to a granted mining concession, and then the project still has to make it through environmental permitting and financing approvals before an operation can start.

Important criterias to select which of a number of projects that will make it in the international competition are:

 Size  Grade  Mining cost  Location

Assessing the first three criteria’s by use of modern exploration techniques, optimal mineral processing and efficient mining, better economy can be achieved in potential projects. In other words, the long mining tradition, highly trained workforce and advanced research available in the region play an important role in the project development.

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The location criteria partly refers to possible conflicts with alternative land use in society, such as environment, culture, other businesses or city planning. In the decision made by the Inspector of Mines, the location of a planned mine is an important issue in the decision to approve an application for Mining Concession. The issue of location also refers to the distance from infrastructure, and boils down to a cost issue. Thus, careful planning of infrastructure is a way to stimulate growth in a region.

In the early stages of exploration the degree of knowledge about a potential mineral resource is very limited. As the project evolves, with increased geological knowledge and through technical and economical evaluation, the degree of certainty about the potential of a project increases. There are classification systems in use to describe the various degree of knowledge when it comes to mineral resources, see Figure 3-3. In the classification systems there is a direct connection between increased knowledge about the geology of an occurrence, from inferred, through indicated and finally to measured mineral resource. However, to classify a mineral resource as a mineral reserve requires additional knowledge about technical as well as economic parameters. Two additional types of resources are referred to in this study, exploration targets and historic resources. Exploration targets constitute exploration results generated by mineral exploration programmes that might be of use to investors but which do not form part of a declaration of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves. This is common in the early stages of exploration when the quantity of data available generally is not sufficient to allow any reasonable estimates of mineral resources. Historic resources are resource estimates carried out before the introduction of classification systems, in Sweden previously used by the Geological Survey. These figures have a high uncertainty and cannot form part of a declaration of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves.

Figure 3-3. Mineral resources and mineral reserves. Source: GeoVista, 2011.

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3.8 Mined ore versus product to be transported

Probably the most important aspect of planning of transport infrastructure for the minerals industry is to understand the difference between mined (crude) ore and product to be transported. Production figures from mining companies sometimes refer to the amount of ore mined; at other times show the amount of a concentrate or a final product being shipped to client. The question to ask is: How many tonnes will need to be transported per time unit from spot A to spot B. As was described in the previous report /GeoVista, 2011/, one tonne of 65% Fe iron ore, results in around 850 kg of products to transport while the same tonne holding 0.3% Cu results in 10 kg of concentrate to transport (Kiruna iron ore versus Aitik copper ore), see Figure 3-4. Along the same lines, a gold deposit probably requires more transport of material into the mine than the products leaving the mine.

In summary, this study needs to look at all existing, planned and potential mines in the Barents region and, despite their different stages of development and thus also the varying degree of knowledge about those deposits, evaluate the future needs for transport planning.

Figure 3-4. Example showing the difference in mined ore delivered versus product (concentrate) from an iron ore mine (65% Fe) compared to a copper mine (0.3% Cu) when mining 1 tonne of ore in respective mine. Source: GeoVista, 2011.

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4 Mineral deposits, resources and product potential

This section describes the workflow for and results of the review of mineral deposit data and specifically the future production potential in the nine westernmost territories of the Barents region. 4.1 Method

The major basis for the work carried out is the Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD) /GTK, 2012/, which is a comprehensive numeric database on metallic mines, deposits and significant occurrences in Fennoscandia and is described further in Appendix 2. Geographically, the data-set covers Norway, Sweden, Finland, Karelia and the Kola Peninsula. The original FODD database covers metallogenic (metallic) mineral deposits, Figure 4-1, and is rather comprehensive regarding resources grades and mineralogy. A recently released industrial mineral version of the deposit database, Figure 4-2, is still of preliminary nature and doesn’t contain numerical data. Neither of the two datasets contains production data.

A selection of the FODD metallic and industrial mineral deposit data within the Barents region has been carried out and the resulting subsets have geographically been divided according to nine major territories; Troms fylke, Nordland fylke and Finnmark fylke in Norway, Västerbottens län and Norrbottens län in Sweden, Lapland region and former Oulun lääni (nowadays Northern Ostrobothnia region and Kainuu region) in Finland and finally Murmanskaya oblast and Republic of Karelia in Russia.

Information in the FODD data has been examined and in some cases data has been modified and some additional mineral occurrences have also been added. After modification of the databases in the selected area of the Barents region the resulting database holds, in total, 770 metallic mineral deposits and 274 industrial mineral deposits.

The work is divided in two parts; at first, the current and potentially near future production (within 0-10 years), for metallic and industrial mineral deposits is analysed. Secondly, the product potential in the long term (up to 30 years or beyond), for metallic mineral deposits only is evaluated.

Initially, to be able to assess each metallic mineral deposit, some new data fields were added to the metallic deposit database; proven and probable mineral reserves, measured, indicated and inferred mineral resources, exploration targets and historic resources. If available, the status of mining licences, feasibility studies and environmental permits were also noted. We call this data set “extended metallic FODD”.

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Based on this, a ranking system has been applied, in which the time for each metallic deposit to come to production is valued, Table 4-1. Of course, these estimates are to a large extent subjective, with higher uncertainty the longer the time to start of production.

Table 4-1. Ranking system for mineral deposits Ranking Year to The way to production production 1 0 Currently in production 2 5 Shortly in production (within 5 years). Many, most or all permits in place. 3 10 Probable mine in the long run (within 10 years) 3.5 15 Possible mine in the long term (within 15 years) 4 20 Ongoing work but still immature (within 20 years) 5 30 Within or at least 30 years. Partly dependent to insufficient information. High uncertainty. 6 -1 Closed mine mostly with no known resource remaining 7 Energy metals, often uranium. Uncertainty in the handling by authorities, also between countries. Left blank.

4.1.1 Current and potentially near future production

The deposits with a ranking of 1, 2 or 3, i.e. from current production to within 10 years, were transferred from the extended metallic FODD to a new database. At this stage also the industrial mineral deposits that currently are in production were added to this new “production” database and given the ranking 1. The database holds 100 records of which 32 are industrial minerals deposits.

The production database has in turn been added with more data fields, in this case; current crude ore production and product volume on an annual basis and when applicable also planned production figures, if available.

For the mineral deposits this type of information can be found on the company web sites, at the geological surveys or at different authorities. For this work mainly figures from 2012 annual reports have been available. However, in some cases those figures have been updated with newly released data. For some clusters of deposits there are no individual production figures, we have instead used the figures given by each producing company for the whole production unit or cluster of deposits.

Since the industrial minerals data doesn’t contain any information on resources or crude ore, only currently producing units have been selected for the review and analysis of product volumes. For these units, current crude ore production and product volume information has been acquired mainly from the web sites of the producing

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companies and from authorities. Consequently, future possible production of industrial minerals is not considered in this study. However, it is a recommendation for coming work to add and also include this type of information, since industrial minerals would have a major contribution to product volumes and thus, to transportation needs.

4.1.2 Product potential in the long term

Note that, at this stage, the industrial mineral deposits are not considered for the product potential in the long run. Note furthermore that this compilation doesn’t include any “blue sky” assumptions. The mineral resources and reserves given are all “real” with some kind of knowledge or uncertainty.

Product potential data can be extracted from the initial metallic mineral deposit database (extended FODD). Each major metallic mineral deposit has some resources and/or reserves specified as well as the grade of the ore commodity. From these figures a total of mineral reserves and resources have been calculated as well as total product potential for this deposit, Figure 4-6.

Depending on the ranking, Table 4-1, the deposits are grouped based on time until assumed production. In this case, ranking 1-3 establish one subset from current production to within 10 years, which would be the same as the total for current to near future production of metallic mineral deposits described in Section 4.1.1. The two other subsets or time periods are from 10-20 years (ranking 3.5-4) and 20- 30 years (ranking 5-7) respectively. The second and third subset (time period) is presented as an additional resource or product potential. When adding up the resources and product volumes no concern is taken to what could be mined out during an earlier time period. The assumption is that resources mined out will be compensated by newly explored resources, not yet found and/or established. This scenario is often the case even if it doesn’t always come through.

4.1.3 Uncertainties

When using the term crude ore and also calculating the product potential, the amount of waste inclusion during mining, Figure 3-4, is not considered in the ore extraction. For each commodity, metal or metal group we also assume a common concentrate grade. In example, for all iron deposits we presume a 68% Fe concentrate. Assumption of concentrate specifications is as far as possible based on the actual ore mineralogy in the deposit. It is not always clear if mineral resources are reported as inclusive of or additional to mineral reserves. Typically mineral resources are reported as additional to mineral reserves, a convention we also follow. When both mineral resources and reserves are reported we use a simplification with an aggregated figure, a procedure not allowed in conventional reporting according to the JORC or NI 43-101 standard. Also, if the information at hand is misinterpreted and reserves are reported as part of a resource this might lead to substantial errors.

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Figure 4-1. Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database, metallic mineral deposit map. FODD presented as is, © Geological Survey of Finland 2012.

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Figure 4-2. Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database, industrial mineral deposit map. FODD presented as is, © Geological Survey of Finland 2012.

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4.2 Result

The results from these compilations are presented per territory and is divided in two parts; the current and potentially near future production (within 5-10 years) and the product potential in the long term (up to 30 years or beyond).

At first, the presentation mainly focuses on the “shorter” term. That is, deposits with ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1, currently producing or possibly in production within 5-10 years, Table 4-2 and Figures 4-3, 4-4 and 4-5. These presentations cover both metallic and industrial mineral deposits.

Secondly, product potential in the longer term, 10-30 years is presented, Table 4-3 and Figures 4-6 and 4-7. In this case, ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1 establish one subset from current production to within 10 years. The two other subsets or time periods are from 10-20 years (ranking 3.5-4) and 20- 30 years (ranking 5-7) respectively. These presentations only cover metallic deposits.

Deposits dominated by gold and other precious metals will not be discussed in the text since their contributions to product volumes generally are small. However, material will need to be transported to and from such a mine but those transports are not considered here.

References are made to the producing mining companies and their public web sites. Used units are Mt, Million tonnes and Mtpa, Million tonnes per annum.

Section 4.2.1 – 4.2.9 describes in more detail the situation in each territory and Section 4.2.10 the “Western Barents region” as a whole.

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Table 4-2. Metallic and industrial mineral deposits in the “Western Barents region”, currently producing or possibly in production within 10 years, ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1. Compilation of total reserves & resources for crude ore [Mt] and potential products [Mt] divided per commodity and territory. Current production of crude ore and products per annum as well as estimates for a time period of within 5 and 10 years, respectively.

Commodity Total reserves and resources Crude ore per annum Products per annum Territory Country Crude Ore Product potential Year0 Year5 Year10 Year0 Year5 Year10 Industrial minerals 560,0 154,6 0,1 5,5 5,5 0,1 2,3 2,3 Ferrous metals 366,5 163,0 1,2 5,4 5,4 0,6 2,6 2,6 Base metals 687,7 20,9 3,4 21,7 21,7 0,1 0,5 0,5 Precious metals 64,1 0,0 1,7 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 Lapland Finland 1678,3 338,5 6,4 34,3 34,3 0,7 5,5 5,5

Industrial minerals 0,0 0,0 1,8 2,3 2,3 0,7 1,0 1,0 Ferrous metals 99,0 23,9 0,0 3,3 3,3 0,0 0,8 0,8 Base metals 2090,4 19,7 10,8 12,0 12,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 Precious metals 47,0 0,1 1,5 2,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Oulu Finland 2236,4 43,7 14,1 19,5 19,5 1,7 2,8 2,8

Industrial minerals 366,0 365,0 1,5 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,6 1,6 Ferrous metals 549,6 253,8 4,2 4,2 4,2 2,0 2,0 2,0 Base metals 39,9 1,7 0,0 4,4 4,4 0,0 0,2 0,2 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Finnmark Norway 955,5 620,5 5,8 10,2 10,2 3,5 3,7 3,7

Industrial minerals 409,0 399,0 3,8 4,0 4,0 3,8 3,9 3,9 Ferrous metals 447,1 223,0 2,8 2,8 2,8 1,4 1,4 1,4 Base metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Nordland Norway 856,1 622,0 6,6 6,8 6,8 5,2 5,3 5,3

Industrial minerals 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Ferrous metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Base metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Troms Norway 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

Industrial minerals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Ferrous metals 3351,7 1558,7 24,0 25,2 25,2 9,3 9,5 9,5 Base metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Karelia Russia 3351,7 1558,7 24,0 25,2 25,2 9,3 9,5 9,5

Industrial minerals 3401,2 1059,2 31,3 36,0 36,0 9,5 13,4 13,4 Ferrous metals 3176,4 845,3 30,5 36,3 36,3 13,0 15,2 15,2 Base metals 1015,6 40,0 8,4 20,4 20,4 0,2 0,4 0,4 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Murmansk Russia 7593,2 1944,5 70,3 92,7 92,7 22,7 29,0 29,0

Industrial minerals 11,9 2,2 0,2 0,2 1,0 0,2 0,2 0,3 Ferrous metals 2450,4 1493,0 49,1 79,6 99,6 31,4 48,2 58,6 Base metals 4192,3 43,2 34,3 39,5 75,0 0,3 1,6 1,9 Precious metals 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Norrbotten Sweden 6654,6 1538,4 83,6 119,3 175,6 31,8 50,0 60,7

Industrial minerals 27,7 2,3 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 Ferrous metals 0,0 59,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,6 Base metals 723,1 8,1 1,5 1,5 32,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 Precious metals 179,5 0,0 1,7 1,7 6,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 Västerbotten Sweden 930,3 69,4 3,2 3,2 39,4 0,1 0,1 2,0

Industrial minerals 4777,5 1983,9 38,8 49,6 51,4 15,8 22,4 22,6 Ferrous metals 10440,8 4619,8 111,9 156,8 176,8 57,7 79,7 91,7 Base metals 8749,1 133,7 58,4 99,5 165,6 1,6 3,7 4,2 Precious metals 290,5 0,1 5,0 5,4 10,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All territories Western Barents 24257,9 6737,4 214,1 311,3 403,8 75,1 105,8 118,5 region

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Figure 4-3. Crude ore and adherent product volumes per annum [Mtpa], for industrial and metallic mineral deposits, in the “Western Barents region”, currently producing or possibly in production in a time period of “within 10 years”, ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1. For details on each deposit, see Appendix 1. Based on FODD modified by GeoVista. Display of the current railway network.

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Figure 4-4. Current and near future production of crude ore and adherent product volumes per annum [Mtpa], estimated for the nine territories and a summary for the whole “Western Barents region”, (bars to the left). Based on metallic and industrial mineral deposits currently producing or possibly in production in a time period of “within 10 years”, ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1. See also Table 4-2.The colour of the bar represents crude ore production per annum and time period (upper text labels) and the black and white pattern the adherent product volumes per annum and time period (lower italic text labels).

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Figure 4-5. Current crude ore (outer circle) and adherent product volumes (inner circle) per annum [Mtpa], distribution per commodity, and estimated for the nine territories and the total for the whole “Western Barents region” (pie chart in the lower left corner). Based on metallic and industrial mineral deposits currently producing, rank 1 in Table 4-1. See also Table 4-2. Labels amount for total crude ore (upper label) and products (lower, italic label) per annum.

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Table 4-3. Compilation of total metallic (only) mineral reserves & resources and future product potential [Mt], estimated for the “Western Barents region” and the total for the whole region. Industrial minerals not included. Nomenclature for mineral reserves and resources explained in Section 3.7. The three time periods relate to ranking presented in Table 4-1, for from current production to within 10 years, additional supply from 10-20 years and 20-≥30 years. Total Reserves and resources Year 10-20 Year 20-30 Metal commodity Total Year 0-10 added supply added supply Product Ore Mineral Exploration Territory Country Historic Total Potential Crude ore Products Crude ore Products Crude ore Products reserves resources Target Ferrous metals 36 661 200 0 897 336 367 163 210 64 321 109 Base metals 157 971 50 12 1190 29 688 21 336 4 167 4 Precious metals 35 71 0 0 106 0 64 0 35 0 7 0 Special metals 0 251 310 0 561 155 560 155 0 0 1 0 Energy metals 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Lapland Finland 228 1955 560 12 2755 520 1678 339 580 68 497 113

Ferrous metals 99 128 0 0 227 79 99 24 18 9 109 46 Base metals 10 2119 0 0 2129 23 2090 20 1 0 38 3 Precious metals 20 45 0 0 65 0 47 0 10 0 8 0 Special metals 0 9 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 Energy metals 0 5 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 Oulu Finland 129 2305 0 0 2434 102 2236 44 29 9 169 50

Ferrous metals 195 463 0 0 658 300 587 272 0 0 71 28 Base metals 1 40 0 0 41 2 40 2 0 0 1 0 Precious metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Special metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Energy metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Finnmark Norway 196 503 0 0 699 301 627 274 0 0 72 28

Ferrous metals 532 0 0 0 532 260 447 223 0 0 85 37 Base metals 17 0 0 0 17 1 0 0 15 1 2 0 Precious metals 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 Special metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Energy metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Nordland Norway 551 0 0 0 551 261 447 223 15 1 89 37

Ferrous metals 97 0 0 0 97 25 0 0 0 0 97 25 Base metals 4 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 Precious metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Special metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Energy metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Troms Norway 101 0 0 0 101 25 0 0 0 0 101 25

Ferrous metals 4155 5417 0 0 9571 3716 3352 1559 0 0 6219 2157 Base metals 217 4021 0 0 4238 93 0 0 0 0 4238 93 Precious metals 9 319 0 0 327 0 0 0 0 0 327 0 Special metals 176 489 0 0 664 2 0 0 0 0 664 2 Energy metals 0 736 0 0 736 0 0 0 0 0 736 0 Karelia Russia 4556 10982 0 0 15537 3811 3352 1559 0 0 12186 2253

Ferrous metals 4053 2432 0 0 6485 2225 3176 845 0 0 3308 1380 Base metals 1744 929 0 0 2673 43 1435 4 17 1 1221 39 Precious metals 10 55 0 0 66 0 0 0 0 0 66 0 Special metals 5168 274 239 0 5680 306 3070 271 0 0 2610 35 Energy metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Murmansk Russia 10975 3690 239 0 14904 2575 7682 1120 17 1 7205 1454

Ferrous metals 1223 2925 190 0 4338 2433 2450 1493 1374 711 514 229 Base metals 705 3609 5 0 4319 54 4250 50 22 1 47 2 Precious metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Special metals 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 Energy metals 0 14 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 Norrbotten Sweden 1928 6551 195 0 8674 2487 6700 1543 1398 713 576 231

Ferrous metals 0 0 0 0 0 57 0 57 0 0 0 0 Base metals 43 816 0 0 859 14 723 8 107 4 28 1 Precious metals 13 172 0 0 185 0 179 0 5 0 1 0 Special metals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Energy metals 0 93 0 0 93 0 0 0 0 0 93 0 Västerbotten Sweden 55 1081 0 0 1136 71 903 65 112 4 122 2

Ferrous metals 10391 12024 390 0 22805 9432 10478 4636 1602 784 10725 4012 Base metals 2897 12505 55 13 15470 259 9227 104 498 11 5745 143 Precious metals 87 662 0 0 749 0 291 0 49 0 410 0 Special metals 5344 1026 549 0 6919 463 3630 426 2 0 3287 37 Energy metals 0 849 0 0 849 0 0 0 0 0 849 0 All territories W. Barents region 18719 27067 994 13 46793 10155 23625 5166 2151 795 21017 4193

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Figure 4-6. Product potential [Mt] for individual metallic mineral deposits based on FODD and modified by GeoVista. Industrial minerals not included. Display of the current railway network.

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Figure 4-7. Metallic (only) mineral reserves & resources and potential product volumes [Mt], estimated for the “Western Barents region” and the total for the whole region (bars to the left). Industrial minerals not included. See also Table 4-3. The three time periods relate to ranking 1-3, Table 4-1, for from current production to within 10 years, additional supply from 10-20 years (ranking 3.5-4) and 20-≥30 years (ranking 5-7), respectively. The colour of the bar represents total crude ore reserves & resources and time period (upper text labels) and the black and white pattern the adherent total product potential (lower italic text labels).

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4.2.1 Lapland region - Finland

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Lapland today amount to about 7 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 1678 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory has a widespread potential for many different commodities where ferrous metals and industrial minerals commodities stands for the major transport need, which in total has a potential of about 338 Mt of products or 5 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”. However, no figures on industrial mineral reserves and resources were found for the deposits in Lapland.

Current mining of crude ore is 6.4 Mtpa generating a production volume of 0.7 Mtpa and the major producing deposit is the newly started Kevitsa nickel deposit /1/ currently with c. 3.4 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.1 Mtpa of products, Appendix 1. Furthermore, the Kemi chromite mine produces 1.25 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.6 Mtpa of products. Gold production at the major producers Kittilä mine /2/ and Pahtavaara mine, Sodankylä, in total comprises 1.7 Mtpa of crude ore and <0.01 Mtpa of products. However, production at Pahtavaara is currently reconsidered and might also, in the near future, involve mining of copper and production of copper concentrates.

The most important, near future mine developments that are likely to change the figures above are:

Full planned production at the Kevitsa unit /1/, Sodankylä, which would mean 6.7 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.25 Mtpa of products.

Development of the Sokli apatite deposit /3/ which would yield 5.0 Mtpa of crude ore and c. 1.8 Mtpa of products; apatite and iron concentrates.

Development of the Hannukainen Fe (+Cu) cluster /4/ including Kuervitikko which would yield in total 4.1 Mtpa of crude ore and c. 2.0 Mtpa of products.

Other possible and important future mine developments could be:

The Sakatti Ni+Cu+PGE discovery /5/, Sodankylä, mining roughly estimated to 5 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.1 Mtpa of products (GeoVista, own estimate). And, the development of the Suhanko Cu+Ni+Au+PGE deposit /6/, close to Rovaniemi is planned for 10 Mtpa of crude ore and would yield 0.15 Mtpa of products.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Lapland metallic mineral deposits today stand for about 6 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 2755 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to 520 Mt (or 5.1 %).

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Companies /1/ First Quantum Minerals Ltd

/2/ Agnico Eagle Finland Oy

/3/ Yara Suomi Oy

/4/ Northland Resources S.A.

/5/ AA Sakatti Mining Oy (Anglo American)

/6/ Arctic Platinum Oy

4.2.2 Northern Ostrobothnia region and Kainuu region – Finland

In this report the results from the Northern Ostrobothnia region and Kainuu region are presented together using the name “Oulu & Kainuu”.

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Oulu & Kainuu today amount to about 9 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 2236 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by base metals and the transport needs has a potential of about 44 Mt of products or 0.6 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”. However, no figures on industrial mineral reserves and resources were found for the deposits in Oulu.

Current mining of crude ore is 14.1 Mtpa generating a production volume of 1.7 Mtpa

The major producing deposit is the Talvivaara nickel-zinc deposit /1/ currently with c. 8.7 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.04 Mtpa of leached products, Appendix 1. The Pyhäsalmi base metal deposit /2/ produces 1.4 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.93 Mtpa of products. This includes a pyrite product at 0.9 Mtpa not calculated for in the product potential based on the given total reserves and resources.

Production of industrial minerals mainly comprises talc, dolomite and industrial rock /3/, giving a total of 1.8 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.7 Mtpa of products, possibly increasing to 2.3 Mtpa of crude ore and 1.0 Mtpa of products in a near future.

Gold production at the Laivakangas deposit /4/ yields 1.5 Mtpa of crude ore and <0.01 Mtpa of products.

The most important, near future mine developments that possibly will change the figures above are:

Development of the Mustavaara Fe-Ti-V deposit /5/ which would yield 3.25 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.8 Mtpa of products. Furthermore, the Kopsa Au-Cu deposit /6/ and

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the Taivaljärvi Ag-Zn deposit /7/ that together will yield 1.6 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.03 Mtpa of products.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Oulu & Kainuu metallic mineral deposits today stand for about 5 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 2434 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to 102 Mt (or 1.0 %).

Companies /1/ Talvivaara Mining Co

/2/ First Quantum Minerals Ltd

/3/ Juuan Dolomiittikalkki OY, Paroc OY ab, Mondo Minerals

/4/ Nordic Mines AB

/5/ Mustavaaran Kaivos Oy

/6/ Belvedere Resources

/7/ Sotkamo Silver AB

4.2.3 Finnmark fylke - Norway

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Finnmark today amount to about 4 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 956 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by ferrous metals and industrial minerals and the possible future need for transports have a potential of about 620 Mt of products or 9.2 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

Current mining of crude ore is 5.8 Mtpa generating a production volume of 3.5 Mtpa.

The major producing deposits are Sydvaranger gruver /1/ with c. 4.2 Mtpa of crude iron ore and 2.0 Mtpa of products, the Gamasnes-Tana quartz deposit /2/ which yield 1.2 Mtpa of crude ore and all as products and the Stjernöy nepheline mine /5/ that produces 0.35 Mtpa of crude ore and all as products. See appendix 1.

The most important, near future mine developments that probably will change these figures are:

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Development of a Cu mines at Nussir and Repparfjord /3/ together planned for 4.0 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.15 Mtpa of products. The reopening of the Bidjovagge Au-Cu deposit /4/ will produce 0.35 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.02 Mtpa of products.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Finnmark metallic mineral deposits today amount to about 1.5 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 699 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 301 Mt (or 3.0 %).

Companies /1/ Northern Iron

/2/ Elkem AS

/3/ Nussir AS

/4/ Arctic Gold AB

/5/ Sibelco Nordic AS

4.2.4 Nordland fylke - Norway

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Nordland today amount to about 3.5 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 856 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by ferrous metals and industrial minerals and the possible future need for transports have a potential of about 622 Mt of products or 9.2 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

Current mining of crude ore is 6.6 Mtpa generating a production volume of 5.2 Mtpa.

The major producing deposits are Rana gruber (Örtfjell) /1/ with c.2.8 Mtpa of crude iron ore and 1.4 Mtpa of products and a number of industrial mineral deposits for production of calcite, dolomite and quartz. The industrial mineral deposits /2/ together yields 3.8 Mtpa of crude ore and almost all as products. See Appendix 1.

To our knowledge there are no new findings likely to change these figures in a near future.

See also Appendix 1.

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Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Nordland metallic mineral deposits today stand for about 1.2 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 551 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 261 Mt (or 2.6 %).

Companies /1/ Rana

/2/ Elkem AS, Brönnöy kalk, Norwegian crystallites, Franzefoss Miljökalk, Norwegian holding, Norcem

4.2.5 Troms fylke - Norway

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral production in Troms is very small today with only one currently producing deposit. The Trälen graphite deposit /1/ produces c. 0.03 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.0007 Mtpa of products. See Appendix 1.

To our knowledge there are no new findings likely to change these figures in a near future.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Troms metallic mineral deposits today stand for about 0.2 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 101 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 25 Mt (or 0.25 %).

Companies /1/ Skaland Grafit AS

4.2.6 Republic of Karelia - Russia

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Karelia today amount to about 14 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 3352 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by ferrous metals and the possible future need for transports are large with a potential of about 1559 Mt of products or 23 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

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Current mining of crude ore is 24.0 Mtpa generating a production volume of 9.3 Mtpa.

All that production is concentrated to one major iron mining cluster, which is Karelsky Okatysh – Severstal /1/ at Kostomuksha, close to the Finnish border. In total the cluster produces 24 Mtpa of iron ore and 9.3 Mtpa of concentrates, Appendix 1.

The most important, near future mine developments that likely will change these figures are:

Development of the Aganozero chrome deposit /2/, south-east Karelia, which is planned for 1.2 Mtpa of crude ore and c. 0.2 Mtpa of products.

It has to be noted that with less public information and data, the knowledge about what deposits in Russia that potentially can be mined in a longer term is less than for the Scandinavian countries. Hence, the uncertainty of possible new production also in the near future is higher. Despite the fact that current production only is on iron ore, the potential for mining of many different commodities is large. Most of the known deposits in Karelia (133 objects out of 143) have been fixed with a ranking 5, Table 4-1, which indicates a high uncertainty mainly caused by insufficient information. The effect of this is also clearly seen in Table 4-3 and Figure 4-6 and 4-7 where the group “Added supply” for “Year 20-30” is much bigger than for the group “Year 10-20”. Please also note that the potential for industrial minerals is not at all taken into account here.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Karelia metallic mineral deposits today stand for about 33.2 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 15537 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 3811 Mt (or 37.5 %). Most of this high potential comes from deposits with lower degree of knowledge and hence these figures have a high uncertainty.

Companies /1/ JSC Karelskiy Okatysh (part of Severstal Resources)

/2/ JSC Karelmet

4.2.7 Murmanskaya oblast - Russia

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Murmansk today amount to about 31 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 7593 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by industrial minerals, ferrous metals and base metals and hence, the possible future need for transports is extensive

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with a potential of about 1944 Mt of products or 29 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

Current mining of crude ore is 70.3 Mtpa generating a product volume of 22.7 Mtpa. The major producing units are from iron deposits; Kovdor iron-apatite ore /1/ and Olcon - Olenegorsk iron ore fields /2/ with c. 16.0 Mtpa and 14.5 Mtpa of crude ore and 8.2 Mtpa (2.5 Mtpa apatite) and 4.2 Mtpa of products, respectively. Additional, from industrial minerals deposits; Apatite-Phosagro, Khibiny /3/ and Oleny Rychei /4/ apatite-nepheline ores with c. 28.0 Mtpa and 3.3 Mtpa of crude ore and 8.9 Mtpa and 0.6 Mtpa of products, respectively. And finally, additional from base metals; Kola- Pechenga nickel ore /5/ and Lovozersky REE ores /6/ with c. 8.1 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.3 Mtpa of products and 8.9 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.6 Mtpa of products, respectively.

See also Appendix 1.

The most important, near future mine developments that is likely to change these figures are:

Full planned production at the Oleny Rychei apatite-nepheline deposit /4/ which would yield 6.0 Mtpa of crude ore and 3.3 Mtpa of products. The same company also plans to develop the Partomchorr apatite-nepheline (REE) deposit /4/ which is planned for 2.0 Mtpa of crude ore and c. 1.3 Mtpa of products.

Development of the Gremyakha-Vyrmes Fe-Ti-V deposit /5/ planned for 5.0 Mtpa of crude ore and 1.9 Mtpa of products.

And finally, development of the Fedorovotundrovskoe Ni-Cu-PGE deposit /6/ planned for 12.0 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.2 Mtpa of products.

It has to be noted that with less public information and data the knowledge about what deposits in Russia that potentially can be mined in a longer term is less than for the Scandinavian countries. Hence, the uncertainty of possible new production also in the near future is higher. The potential for mining of many different commodities is large. Most of the known deposits in Murmansk (74 objects out of 101) have been fixed with ranking 5, Table 4-1, which indicates a high uncertainty based on insufficient information. The effect of this is also clearly seen in Table 4-3 and Figure 4-6 and 4-7 where the group “Added supply” for “Year 20-30” is much bigger than for the group “Year 10-20”. Please also note that the potential for industrial minerals is not at all taken into account here.

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Murmask metallic mineral deposits today amount to about 31.9 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 14904 Mt, in the ”Western Barents

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region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 2575 Mt (or 25.4 %).

Companies /1/ JSC Kovdorsky Mining (Kovdor GOK OAO)

/2/ JSC Olcon (part of Severstal Resources)

/3/ OJSC Phosagro

/4/ Northwest Phosphorus Company

/5/ JSC Norilsk nickel - Kolskaya GMK (Kola MMC) and North Chrome Company

/6/ Barric Gold Corporation CJSC “Fedorovo resources”

4.2.8 Norrbottens län - Sweden

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Norrbotten today amount to about 27 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 6655 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by ferrous metals and base metals and hence, the possible future need for transports is large with a potential of about 1538 Mt of products or 23 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

Current mining of crude ore is 83.6 Mtpa generating a production volume of 31.8 Mtpa. The major producing deposits are Kirunavaara, Malmberget and Aitik with c. 27 Mtpa, 17 Mtpa and 34 Mtpa of crude ore and 18.9 Mtpa, 10.4 Mtpa and 0.3 Mtpa of products, respectively, Appendix 1.

The most important, near future mine developments that are likely to change these figures are:

Development of the LKAB Svappavaara cluster /1/ including full production at Gruvberget, restart of the Leveäniemi mine and a new mine in Mertainen which would yield in total 23.8 Mtpa of crude iron ore and c. 15 Mtpa of products.

Full planned production at the Northland unit in Kaunisvaara /2/, which would mean 12 Mtpa of crude iron ore and 4 Mtpa of products.

Other possible and important future mine developments could be:

The New Laver copper discovery /3/ in south Norrbotten estimated for 35 Mtpa of crude ore and 0.3 Mtpa of products.

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Development of a Cu+Fe mine in the Viscaria area /4/ and of the Rakkurijoki iron ore /5/, close to Kiruna, planned for together 8.5 Mtpa of crude ore and 4.1 Mtpa of products.

Development of the Kallak iron deposit /6/, in the Jokkmokk municipality, which is planned for 10 Mtpa of crude iron ore and c. 4.3 Mtpa of products.

Within a time period of ten years also some of the Per Geijer iron deposits /1/ north of Kiruna can possibly be in production, estimated to 5 Mtpa of crude ore and 3 Mtpa of products (GeoVista estimate).

See also Appendix 1.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Norrbotten metallic mineral deposits today amount to about 18.5 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 8674 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a potential total production volume is estimated to c. 2487 Mt (or 24.5 %).

A report on potential mineral resources along a possible new railway between Svappavaara and Kaunisvaara has indicated that when such a railway is built the foundations for developing also industrial mineral deposits in that area will increase /GeoVista, 2013/.

Companies /1/ Luossavaara Kiirunavaara AB

/2/ Northland Resources S.A.

/3/ Boliden Group

/4/ Avalon Minerals Ltd

/5/ Kiruna Iron AB

/6/ Jokkmokk Iron AB

4.2.9 Västerbottens län - Sweden

Current and potentially near future production The metallic and industrial mineral deposits in Västerbotten today amount to about 4 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 930 Mt of crude ore, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-2. The territory is dominated by base metals and gold and consequently the possible future need for transports are less with a potential of about 69 Mt of products or 1 % of the estimated total product volume for the “Western Barents region”.

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Current mining of crude ore is 3.2 Mt generating a production volume of 0.1 Mton, mainly from the sulphide deposits in the Skellefte field /1/. The most important, new future mine developments that possibly can change these figures are the Rönnbäcken Ni+Fe deposit /2/, the Granlidsknösen fluorine deposit /3/, both located in the Storuman municipality, and the Stekenjokk sulphide deposits /4/ in the Wilhelmina municipality. The planned crude ore mined and adherent product volumes are 30 and 1.7 Mton, 1 and 0.1 Mt and 0.6 and 0.07 Mton, respectively. The major product volume originates from the possible iron concentrate produced at the Rönnbäcken deposit with 1.6 Mt per annum. The iron concentrate will arise as a by-product to the nickel mining which in itself will generate 0.1 Mt per annum of nickel products.

Product potential in the long term (metallic minerals only) In the long term, the Västerbotten metallic mineral deposits today amount to about 2.4 % of the total mineral reserves and resources, or 1136 Mt, in the ”Western Barents region”, Table 4-3. From this, a total product potential is estimated to a volume of c. 71 Mt (or 0.7 %)

Companies /1/ Boliden Mineral AB

/2/ Nickel Mountain Resources AB

/3/ Tertiary Minerals plc

/4/ Vilhelmina mineral AB

4.2.10 The Western Barents region

The mineral potential in the “Western Barents region” is huge. In the short term, within 10 years, there is currently knowledge of industrial and metallic mineral resources which would yield c. 24,000 Mt of crude ore and c. 6,700 Mt of products. In a longer term there are indications of metallic mineral resources which potentially can yield in total c. 47,000 Mt of crude ore and c. 10,000 Mt of products (industrial minerals not included).

When it comes to products to transport, Murmansk, Karelia and Norrbotten can be considered as major contributors in the short term, with mineral resources of 7,593 Mt, 3,352 Mt and 6,656 Mt crude ore and 1,944 Mt, 1,559 Mt and 1,538 Mt of potential products, respectively. Currently the total annual product volume constitutes c. 23 Mtpa, 9 Mtpa and 32 Mtpa, respectively.

Ferrous metals contribute to large volumes of crude ore and are most important regarding product volumes. When it comes to current or near future production, ferrous metals in total amount to 43 % or 10,441 Mt of crude ore and 69 % or 4,620 Mt of products. The annual production of iron crude ore is currently c. 112 Mtpa and

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possibly 177 Mtpa within a near future. Comparable annual product volumes amount to 58 Mtpa and 92 Mtpa, respectively.

Industrial minerals become more and more important in the society and contribute to a large extent to product volumes. However, there is inadequate data to compare with the metallic resources. Thus, an upgrade of the knowledge of industrial mineral resources and potential is recommended. When it comes to current or near future production industrial minerals in total amount to 20 % or 4,777 Mt of crude ore and 29 % or 1,984 Mt of products. Currently the annual production of industrial minerals is c. 39 Mtpa of crude ore and possibly 51 Mtpa within a near future. Comparable annual product volumes amount to 16 Mtpa and 23 Mtpa, respectively.

Base metals can often contribute to large volumes of crude ore but they are less important regarding product volumes. When it comes to current or near future production, base metals in total amount to 36% or 8,749 Mt of crude ore but only 2 % or 138 Mt of products. The annual production of base metal crude ore is currently c. 58 Mtpa and possibly 166 Mtpa within a near future. Comparable annual product volumes amount to 2 Mtpa and 4 Mtpa, respectively.

Precious metals constitute an important commodity in the region with total reserves and resources of c. 290 Mt of crude ore but the contribution is negligible regarding product volumes to transport. The annual production of precious metal crude ore is currently c. 5.0 Mtpa and possibly 10 Mtpa within a near future. Comparable annual product volumes are small, < 0.1 Mtpa.

It should be noted, that no so called “Blue sky” is involved in this compilation! Only mineral resources that are in some way “known” are included.

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5 Discussion

The study confirms the scenario previously presented /GeoVista, 2011/, of a considerable increase in product volumes from mines in the Western Barents Region, in the near future as well as in the longer perspective. The product volumes are estimated to increase from today’s 75 Mt/year to 106 Mt/year in 5 years time and 118 Mt/year 10 years from today. Major increases in production volume would take place in Norrbotten (from 32 Mt/year to 50 Mt/year and 61 Mt/year respectively), figures which confirm the result of the previous study even if they are not in exact agreement. Notably is also the estimated increase in product volume in Finnish Lapland from 0.7 Mt/year today to 5.5 Mt/year in 5 to 10 years from today (Figure 4-2). Note that production volumes, not volumes of crude ore, are of interest when planning for required transports.

The FODD /GTK, 2012/ background data has in this work been thoroughly processed and controlled compared to the study done in 2011, possible leading to some minor changes in estimates. Additionally, in this study an estimate of the future development of the total reserves and resources in the region (see table 4-3) has been made by projecting the production volumes into the periods 0-10 years, 10-20 years an 20-30 years from now. Due to uncertainties about when and if projects actually become commercial but also uncertainties about Russian figures, the exact time period where different deposits start producing is hard to know. Thus, the estimate of a total of c. 24,000 Mt of crude ore resulting in c. 6,700 Mt of products (bottom of columns 1 & 2 in Table 4-2) during the first 10 years is better supported than the total reserve and resource potential of c. 47,000 Mt of crude ore yielding c. 10,000 Mt of products (bottom of columns 5 & 6 in Table 4-3) over a period of 30 years. Note that, in the estimate of reserves and resources (Table 4-3) industrial minerals are not included.

The bottom line is that the potential for development in the region is huge. Since the last study /GeoVista, 2011/ the geological potential remains unchanged, knowledge about the deposits continues to increase and minerals policies and strategies are being implemented. Political risk as well as mineral legislations are still, compared to other geologically important places on a global scale, favourable in the region. The only change which is noted to have a negative impact on the development of the industry is the current lack of financing for mining projects. However, this is temporary in nature and will only delay the planned projects in the short term. We are also likely to see a faster recovery the longer the current financial problems burden the industry.

In this report the main focus has been on the most important mineral deposit clusters in the Western Barents region. We have also focused on the deposits which result in larger transportation needs, even if we also cover base metal and precious metal deposits.

Industrial minerals become more and more important in the society and contribute to a large extent to product volumes. However, there is inadequate data to compare with

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the metallic resources. Thus, an upgrade of the knowledge of industrial mineral resources and potential is recommended for the future of the project.

In more detailed studies, figures on mineral reserves and mineral resources also need to be checked more closely, to avoid misinterpretations if reserves are additional to or part of resources.

The scenario we can see in the data indicates a strong case for the development of long term transport solutions particularly in Swedish Norrbotten where iron ore production will lead to considerable pressure on existing infrastructure in the years to come. We see a similar requirement in Northern Finland, where the needs to reach a deep harbour favourably could be solved by a joint east-west transport solution from the Sokli - Sodankylä area via Kaunisvaara and Svappavara – Kiruna to Narvik.

Influence on transport needs in northwest Russia, Murmansk and Karelia, is not further discussed in this report. However, the possible future impact from the huge product potential in the Kostomuksha area close to the Finnish border, Vartius - Kajaani, both in the short and long term, has to be pointed out, Figure 4-3 and 4-6.

The increased need for transport solutions in the region will require investments, or to be otherwise addressed, in the following areas:

 Increased capacity on Malmbanan, Kiruna – Narvik as well as Malmberget – Luleå (mentioned in GeoVista, 2011). Possibly also including Kiruna – Malmberget.

 A new railway between Svappavaara and Kaunisvaara, optimised in relation to other mineral deposits along the way, like the Vittangi, Lannavaara and Masugnsbyn deposit clusters, mentioned in /GeoVista, 2011/ and further analysed in a more detailed study /GeoVista, 2013/, see further below.

 A possible continuation of this route from Kaunisvaara to Kolari, the Hannukainen area and further eastwards to Sodankylä and Sokli, see further below.

 A transport solution from the Kallak iron deposit being developed in Jokkmokk, possibly including other deposits along the way, a major overhaul of Inlandsbanan between Jokkmokk and Gällivare (mentioned in GeoVista, 2011).

 Possibly a transport solution south-west of Kiruna (mentioned in GeoVista, 2011).

 In the short-medium term Laver, in southern Norrbotten, may produce a large volume of crude ore, Figure 4-3. However, the product volumes from Laver will be minor.

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 The same is valid for the possible Fäboliden gold deposit in central Västerbotten where impact on the transport systems will be minor.

 The situation at Rönnbäcken, in western Västerbotten, will be somewhat different since Nickel Mountain now also considers producing an iron concentrate that will impact the transport system in the area.

 In Finland, a transport route to the Mustavaara iron deposit (and indirectly the Kuusamo greenstone belt, our comment) has been studied by the Finnish Trafikverket /Finnish Transport Agency, 2013/, but the annual product volumes (from Mustavaara alone?) were considered too small. Accordingly, the project was not identified as of sufficient national economic advantage for mineral and forest transports.

 In Norway, the iron ores at Rana gruber in Nordland and Sydvaranger Gruver in Kirkenes, Finnmark will amount for the larger volumes of both crude ore and product volumes in the near future. Product potential and adherent transport needs arises from industrial mineral deposits and some iron deposit clusters in Nordland, Seljeli area and in Troms like Andörja and Selvåg. Commonly deposits are located rather close to the sea and thus, transport will be solved from there. The Karasjokk iron ore field in southern Finnmark is an exception. However, we currently consider that project as very immature. It should be noted that the Norwegian parliament has started a substantial exploration programme for Northern Norway (MINN – Minerals in Northern Norway) in order to increase knowledge about mineral resources and prepare for increased mineral activity in the territory.

 The Ruotevaare iron ore field (Fe-Ti), Jokkmokk, has a large product potential but a difficult geographic location. The exploration licence has been relinquished primarily due to the location.

It is important to emphasise that estimated production volumes in new mining areas, starting operation in 5-10 years time from now, actually requires that planning and building of such infrastructure commences long before the actual need is safely proven, in order to be in place when the volumes are produced. Equally important is the understanding that infrastructure is one of the key parameters to stimulate exploration efforts to take place in a particular region. Thus, an infrastructure investment made for a planned development which for some reason becomes modified or postponed, could still result in a positive calculation of return on investment. This is especially true if the location of e.g. a transport corridor for a new railway is optimised with relation to known deposits in the area. Such adjacent deposits are, given the boost of infrastructure in the vicinity, most likely to become contributors to railway fees paying off the investment in the future.

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Most of the studies made on transport needs in the Barents Region have the aim to solve the requirement of its own country, either due to requests of national planning, based on local funding or other local reasons. However, in designing transport solutions in the Western Barents region we need to have an east-west Barents perspective to support the strengths each country holds from a mineral point of view.

Let us develop the discussion about an east-west ruote A study of potential mineral assets serving as a foundation for a future Kaunisvaara- Svappavaara railway /GeoVista, 2013/ shows that known mineral resources and reserves along or adjacent to this possible route in total amount to 990 Mt of crude ore and 470 Mt of product volumes, dominated by iron ore, Table 5-1 and Figure 5-1. The rather well know potential product volume from iron deposits in the Kolari, Pajala and Masugnsbyn deposit clusters solely amounts to 340 Mt and from the Northland’s Tapuli and Sahavaara mines only, c. 100 Mt of products can be estimated. From the Hannukainen area on the Finnish side an additional 110 Mt of products can be expected. A rather conservative estimate of unknown, potential iron deposits indicate an additional product volume of 180 Mt or in total 640 Mt of iron products from the area, Table 5-1. Today, by this study, these figures have increased even more.

Table 5-1. Mineral resources and reserves as crude ore and product volumes along and adjacent to a possible railway between Kaunisvaara and Svappavaara, revised from /GeoVista 2013/. “Known” volumes imply a resource with some kind of current knowledge. “Potential” mean an additional resource not currently known but reasonable from geological and exploration point of view. Known Known and and Known potential Known potential product product Unit [Mt] crude ore crude ore volume volume Total iron 949,2 1293 451,6 640 Total sulphides 5,0 279 0,1 11 Total carbonates 7,4 596 7,4 596 Total graphite 21,2 71 3,8 17 Total other 5,0 56 2,5 53 Total all materials All clusters 987,8 2294 465,5 1317

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Figure 5-1. Known (dark blue column to the left) with known plus potential (cyan column to the right) product volume [Mt] for deposit clusters along a Kaunisvaara – Svappavaara railway. Railway extension shows the shortest way between the two areas. Source: GeoVista, 2013.

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Figure 5-2. Distribution of known plus potential product volumes [Mt] for each deposit cluster and commodity along a Kaunisvaara – Svappavaara railway. Diameter 150 Mton/cm. Railway extension shows the shortest way between the two areas. Source: GeoVista, 2013.

Beside iron ore, the other commodities of utmost importance from transport point of view are different industrial minerals, Figure 5-2. It is likely that high quality, industrial mineral commodities (which exist in the area) along a new railway route will gather new attention for mineral exploration and extraction. Hence, the study estimated an additional potential product volume of 670 Mt, mainly from carbonate, graphite and quartzite occurrences, Table 5-1. This high figure is of course rather speculative and if this scenario really occurs all deposits will probably not be producing during the same time span.

The proposed new railway route from Kaunisvaara near the Finnish border, connection to the existing Svappavaara – Narvik/Luleå harbours, will have a large impact on the development of northern Norrbotten. The situation is rather similar on the Finnish side. From Figure 4-6 a scattered pattern of metallic deposits are clearly seen in the Central Lapland greenstone belt, from Kolari to Sodankylä, some with enhanced potential for product volumes. Geologically the area can be extended further to the east to the Sokli apatite deposit close to the Russian border, see also Figure 4-1 and 4- 2. This is also in agreement with thoughts pointed out in the Joint Barents Transport Plan /The Barents Euro Arctic Region, 2013/.

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As pointed out by the Finnish Transport Agency /2013/ a new railway connection between Kolari and Sokli (through Sodankylä) has a high priority for continuous transport studies in this mineral rich part of northern Finland. One of the most favourable options to reach a deep port is, according to their study, to connect to a Swedish railway planned between Kaunisvaara and Svappavaara.

This example of east-west development is also being discussed from an international point of view, not just for the minerals industry. From that perspective, it would be of great interest to see what a similar, mineral asset study along a Kolari – Sodankylä – Sokli route would result in, especially with regard to industrial mineral potential.

Such a study could also cover a south-north railway route alternative from Kemijärvi to Sodankylä, bending eastwards through the Lapland greenstone belt and the Akanvaara Cr, Fe, V, Ti- and Jauratsi Fe-deposits area, just as one example. We believe this approach was not examined by the Finnish Transport Agency in their study 2013.

Finally some thoughts for the future: Europe as a whole consumes 25% of the world’s mineral production but only produces 3%. Hence, from a European perspective it is desirable to increase the ore production in the Western Barents region. In general, a lot of effort in this scenario is being put into planning of exporting mineral resources direct to a deep sea port and further out in the world.

Even if we in the Western Barents region need to export to other parts of Europe and out in the world we should also focus on developing cooperations and infrastructure to facilitate efficient refining of products locally and increase the local product rates as much as possible before transport. This would be smart from the point of view of economical as well as ecological sustainability. With this perspective, transport to the local markets and industries, typically located at the cost of the Bothnian Bay for Sweden and Finland and local fjords in Norway would be prioritised.

Even if we can estimate future volumes of products accurately and even if we can estimate the exact time those volumes will occur, we have little insight into on what route the producer finally wants to transport the goods to their client.

Hence, the best would be to develop a transport system with both east-west and north-south connections, to and from deep sea ports as well as to and from local industries and ports at the Bothnian bay.

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6 References

The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Australian Institute of Geoscientists and Minerals Council of Australia, 2012. The JORC Code 2012 Edition. Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves.

The Barents Euro Arctic Region, Sep 2013. Joint Barents Transport Plan. Proposals for development of transport corridors for further studies. http://www.barentsinfo.fi/beac/docs/Joint_Barents_Transport_Plan_2013.pdf

European Commission, 2008. The raw materials initiative — meeting our critical needs for growth and jobs in Europe, {SEC(2008) 2741}. http://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2008:0699:FIN:en:PDF

European Commission, Juni 2010. Critical Raw Materials for the EU. Report of the Ad- hoc Group on defining critical raw materials. http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/raw-materials/files/docs/report-b_en.pdf

European Commission, Februry 2011. Tackling the Challenges in Commodity Markets and on Raw Materials. http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/raw- materials/files/docs/communication_en.pdf

Finnish Transport Agency, 2013. Gruvverksamhetens trafikbehov. http://public.mailem.fi/liikennevirasto/20130318/7902/article_18402.html

Geological Institute of KSC RAS. Apatity, Russia, 2011: Mineral potential of Kola Peninsula. 8th Fennoscandian Exploration and Mining. Levi – Finland, Nov. 1-3, 2011.

GeoVista, 2011. Mineralråvaror i Barentsregionen – Underlag till transportplanering, Oktober 2011. (GRV11057). Trafikverket 2011/31274. http://www.trafikverket.se/PageFiles/47062/mineralravaror_i_barentsregionen11120 6.pdf

GeoVista, 2013. Potentiella mineraltillgångar - Underlag till utredning, Potentiell järnväg Kaunisvaara – Svappavaara, April 2013. (GRV13006). Trafikverket 2011/31274. http://www.trafikverket.se/PageFiles/129095/potentiella_mineraltillgangar_underlag_ till_utredning_potentiell_jarnvag_kaunisvaara_svappavaara.pdf

GTK, 2011. Finlands Mineralstrategi. http://www.mineraalistrategia.fi/etusivu/fi_FI/etusivu/_files/84348449708116169/def ault/FinlandsMineralstrategi.pdf

GTK, 2013: Mining in Finland 2012. http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/mineralproduction/minfinl_12.html

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GTK, 2013: Metallic ores 2012. http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/mineralproduction/meores_12.html

GTK, 2013: Carbonate rocks 2012. http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/mineralproduction/cbrock_12.html

GTK, 2013: Other industrial minerals 2012. http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/mineralproduction/othind_12.html

IMC Montan 2011: Mineral resource and reserve valuation. CJSC North-Western Phosphorous Company. Partomchorr Deposit. OOO IEEC, August 2011.

IMC Montan 2011: Mineral resource and reserve valuation. CJSC North-Western Phosphorous Company. Oleniy Ruchey Apatite-nepheline Ore Deposit. OOO IEEC, August 2011.

Länsstyrelsen, 2012. Regional mineralstrategi för Norrbotten och Västerbotten, utkast juli 2012. http://www.lansstyrelsen.se/norrbotten/SiteCollectionDocuments/Sv/naringsliv-och- foreningar/naringslivsutveckling/regional-mineralstrategi-utkast%20juli%202012.pdf

Mining Industry – View to the Future. The 2nd International Conference. Kirovsk, Murmask region, Russia. 22-23 November 2012.

NGU, 2012. Mineral- og metallressurser i Norge: Verdien av industrimineralforekomster av nasjonal betydning. NGU Rapport 2012.053.

NGU, 2013. Mineralressurser i Norge 2012. Mineralstatistikko g bergindustriberetning. NGU Publikasjon Nr 1 2013.

Norges Närings och Handelsdepartementet, 2013. Strategi förmineralnäringen (Norge). http://www.regjeringen.no/pages/38261985/mineralstategi_20130313.pdf

Norges Vegdirektorat, 2010. Ny infrastruktur i nord – del 1. http://www.ntp.dep.no/Nasjonale+Transportplaner/2014- 2023/Utredninger+og+grunnlagsmateriale+2014- 2023/_attachment/501061/binary/812163?_ts=13ff1d75320

Norges Vegdirektorat, 2011. Ny infrastruktur i nord – del 2. http://www.regjeringen.no/pages/16708276/ntp_nordomradeutredning_fase2_2011. pdf

SGU, 2013. Bergverksstatistik 2012. SGU Periodiska publikationer 2013:2. (Även för år 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2005). www.sgu.se

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SGU, 2014, Januari. Metaller och mineraler – Nyhetsbrev från Sveriges Geologiska Undersökning. www.sgu.se

SGU, GTK, NGU & MNRRF, Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD), 2013. http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/databases/fodd/index.html

Sveriges Näringsdepartementet, 2013. Sveriges Mineralstrategi. http://www.regeringen.se/sb/d/17076/a/209657

Trafikverket, 2011. Råvaror och kommunikationer i Barents, TRV 2011/31274. http://www.trafikverket.se/PageFiles/47062/Ravaror_och_kommunikationer_i_Barent s_2011_1.pdf

Also including:

Web sites for mining and exploration companies and industrial mineral producers in the region, including their press releases, annual reports etc.

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Appendix 1. Compilation of individual metallic and industrial mineral deposits in the “Western Barents region”, currently producing or possibly in production in a time period of “within 10 years”, ranking 1-3 in Table 4-1. Total reserves and resources presented as crude ore and product volumes in Mt. Crude ore and product volumes in Mt per annum at current and estimated within the course of five and ten years, respectively. Data from FODD modified by GeoVista, see also Appendix 2.

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Kalkkimaa Finland Lapland 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 Lampivaara Finland Lapland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Rantamaa Finland Lapland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Ristimaa Finland Lapland 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02 0,02 Ruonanoja Finland Lapland 0,40 0,40 0,40 0,40 Sokli *) Finland Lapland 560,00 154,56 5,00 5,00 1,84 1,84 Industrial minerals vi) Finland Lapland 560,0 154,6 0,1 5,5 5,5 0,1 2,3 2,3 Hannukainen Finland Lapland 198,50 97,30 4,15 4,15 2,04 2,04 Kuervitikko, see Hannukainen for Finland Lapland 45,00 15,44 annual production [Mtpa] Kemi Finland Lapland 123,00 50,30 1,25 1,25 1,25 0,60 0,60 0,60 Ferrous metals Finland Lapland 366,5 163,0 1,2 5,4 5,4 0,6 2,6 2,6 Kevitsa Finland Lapland 429,20 16,05 3,37 6,70 6,70 0,06 0,25 0,25 Sakatti ***) Finland Lapland 50,00 1,67 5,00 5,00 0,11 0,11 Suhanko Finland Lapland 208,50 3,22 10,00 10,00 0,15 0,15 Base metals Finland Lapland 687,7 20,9 3,4 21,7 21,7 0,1 0,5 0,5 Pahtavaara Au Finland Lapland 4,15 0,00 0,52 0,52 0,52 0,00 0,00 0,00 Suurikuusikko-Kittilä Finland Lapland 59,94 0,00 1,22 1,22 1,22 0,00 0,00 0,00 Precious metals Finland Lapland 64,1 0,0 1,7 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Finland Lapland 1678,3 338,5 6,4 34,3 34,3 0,7 5,5 5,5

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Metsäsianniemi Finland Oulu 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 Pihlajavaara Finland Oulu 0,01 0,50 0,50 0,01 0,25 0,25 Punasuo Finland Oulu 1,15 1,15 1,15 0,37 0,37 0,37 Reetinniemi Finland Oulu 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 Uutela Finland Oulu 0,54 0,54 0,54 0,26 0,26 0,26 Industrial minerals vi) Finland Oulu 0,0 0,0 1,8 2,3 2,3 0,7 1,0 1,0 Mustavaara Finland Oulu 99,00 23,87 3,25 3,25 0,78 0,78 Ferrous metals Finland Oulu 99,0 23,9 0,0 3,3 3,3 0,0 0,8 0,8 Hitura Finland Oulu 4,72 0,21 0,66 0,66 0,66 0,02 0,02 0,02 Kopsa Finland Oulu 16,40 0,10 1,20 1,20 0,02 0,02 Pyhäsalmi v) Finland Oulu 16,52 1,57 1,38 1,38 1,38 0,93 0,93 0,93 Talvivaara Finland Oulu 2052,80 17,83 8,73 8,73 8,73 0,04 0,04 0,04 Base metals Finland Oulu 2090,4 19,7 10,8 12,0 12,0 1,0 1,0 1,0 Taivaljärvi Finland Oulu 7,97 0,14 0,45 0,45 0,01 0,01 Laivakangas Finland Oulu 39,04 0,00 1,52 1,52 1,52 0,00 0,00 0,00 Precious metals Finland Oulu 47,0 0,1 1,5 2,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Finland Oulu 2236,4 43,7 14,1 19,5 19,5 1,7 2,8 2,8

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Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Gamasnes (Elkem Tana) Norway Finnmark 15,00 15,00 1,20 1,20 1,20 1,20 1,20 1,20 Lillebukt; Stjernöy Norway Finnmark 350,00 350,00 0,35 0,35 0,35 0,35 0,35 0,35 Svanvik Norway Finnmark 1,00 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,03 Industrial minerals Norway Finnmark 366,0 365,0 1,5 1,6 1,6 1,5 1,6 1,6 Sydvaranger cluster Norway Finnmark 549,60 253,79 4,24 4,24 4,24 1,98 1,98 1,98 Ferrous metals Norway Finnmark 549,6 253,8 4,2 4,2 4,2 2,0 2,0 2,0 Bidjovagge Norway Finnmark 1,39 0,07 0,35 0,35 0,02 0,02 Nussir Norway Finnmark 30,87 1,40 2,00 2,00 0,09 0,09 Repparfjord Norway Finnmark 7,69 0,25 2,00 2,00 0,06 0,06 Base metals Norway Finnmark 39,9 1,7 0,0 4,4 4,4 0,0 0,2 0,2 Precious metals Norway Finnmark 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Norway Finnmark 955,5 620,5 5,8 10,2 10,2 3,5 3,7 3,7

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Akselberg Norway Nordland 305,00 305,00 2,20 2,20 2,20 2,20 2,20 2,20 Hammerfall Dolomittbrudd Norway Nordland 80,00 80,00 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 0,80 Hekkelstrand Norway Nordland 10,00 10,00 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 0,14 Håkonhals Norway Nordland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Kjøpsvik Norway Nordland 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,50 Løvgavlen Norway Nordland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Mårnes Norway Nordland 4,00 4,00 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 0,17 Nasafjell Norway Nordland 10,00 0,20 0,20 0,10 0,10 Nedre Øyvollen, Drag Norway Nordland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Seljeli Norway Nordland 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Industrial minerals Norway Nordland 409,0 399,0 3,8 4,0 4,0 3,8 3,9 3,9 Ørtfjell Norway Nordland 388,00 194,00 2,83 2,83 2,83 1,42 1,42 1,42 Ørtfjell - øst, See Örtfjell for Norway Nordland 33,12 16,36 annual production [Mtpa] Ørtvann, see Örtfjell for annual Norway Nordland 26,00 12,62 production [Mtpa] Ferrous metals Norway Nordland 447,1 223,0 2,8 2,8 2,8 1,4 1,4 1,4 Base metals Norway Nordland 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals Norway Nordland 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Norway Nordland 856,1 622,0 6,6 6,8 6,8 5,2 5,3 5,3

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Trælen Norway Troms 1,70 1,70 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,00 0,00 0,00 Industrial minerals Norway Troms 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Ferrous metals Norway Troms 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Base metals Norway Troms 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals Norway Troms 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Norway Troms 1,7 1,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0

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3 Appendix 1

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Industrial minerals Russia Karelia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Karelsky Okatysh - Severstal Russia Karelia 3147,61 1462,97 24,00 24,00 24,00 9,30 9,30 9,30 Aganozero Cr Russia Karelia 204,13 95,74 1,20 1,20 0,21 0,21 Ferrous metals Russia Karelia 3351,7 1558,7 24,0 25,2 25,2 9,3 9,5 9,5 Base metals Russia Karelia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Precious metals Russia Karelia 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Russia Karelia 3351,7 1558,7 24,0 25,2 25,2 9,3 9,5 9,5

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 JSC Apatit - Phosagro Russia Murmansk 1749,20 67,64 28,00 28,00 28,00 8,90 8,90 8,90 Kovdor ind.min. Russia Murmansk 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 Oleny Rychei Russia Murmansk 535,63 290,95 3,33 6,00 6,00 0,59 3,26 3,26 Partomchorr Russia Murmansk 1116,33 700,62 2,00 2,00 1,26 1,26 Industrial minerals Russia Murmansk 3401,2 1059,2 31,3 36,0 36,0 9,5 13,4 13,4 Gremyakha-Vyrmes Russia Murmansk 340,09 129,55 5,00 5,00 1,90 1,90 Kovdor Russia Murmansk 1619,29 174,75 16,00 16,00 16,00 8,21 8,21 8,21 Olcon - Severstal Russia Murmansk 1206,34 536,95 14,50 14,50 14,50 4,80 4,80 4,80 Sopcheozerskoe Russia Murmansk 10,70 4,08 0,75 0,75 0,29 0,29 Ferrous metals Russia Murmansk 3176,4 845,3 30,5 36,3 36,3 13,0 15,2 15,2 Fedorovotundrovskoe Russia Murmansk 285,50 3,62 12,00 12,00 0,18 0,18 Lovozersky GOK Russia Murmansk 204,23 8,31 0,30 0,30 0,30 0,01 0,01 0,01 NN Kola MMC_Pechenga Russia Murmansk 525,89 28,05 8,15 8,15 8,15 0,17 0,17 0,17 Base metals Russia Murmansk 1015,6 40,0 8,4 20,4 20,4 0,2 0,4 0,4 Precious metals Russia Murmansk 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Russia Murmansk 7593,2 1944,5 70,3 92,7 92,7 22,7 29,0 29,0

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Masugnsbyn Sweden Norrbotten 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 0,20 Nunasvaara Sweden Norrbotten 7,60 1,86 0,40 0,06 Raitajärvi Sweden Norrbotten 4,30 0,31 0,40 0,03 Industrial minerals Sweden Norrbotten 11,9 2,2 0,2 0,2 1,0 0,2 0,2 0,3 Gruvberget Fe Sweden Norrbotten 9,00 7,14 1,29 1,80 1,80 1,02 1,43 1,43 Gruvberget breccia, see Sweden Norrbotten 9,70 5,83 Gruvberget for annual production [Mtpa] Haukivaara iv) Sweden Norrbotten 10,40 6,12 2,00 1,18 Henry iv) Sweden Norrbotten 14,00 9,26 2,00 1,32 Nukutus iv) Sweden Norrbotten 8,00 5,29 1,00 0,66 Kallak Sweden Norrbotten 131,60 54,38 10,00 4,30 Kirunavaara Sweden Norrbotten 969,00 680,15 26,93 26,93 26,93 18,90 18,90 18,90 Leveäniemi Sweden Norrbotten 110,00 76,14 12,00 12,00 8,31 8,31 Malmberget Sweden Norrbotten 499,00 308,13 16,89 16,89 16,89 10,43 10,43 10,43 Mertainen Sweden Norrbotten 157,00 80,60 10,00 10,00 5,13 5,13

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4 Appendix 1

Rakkurijoki Sweden Norrbotten 74,50 43,49 5,00 2,92 Tapuli Sweden Norrbotten 233,10 88,78 4,00 12,00 12,00 1,00 4,00 4,00 Sahavaara Stora, see Tapuli for Sweden Norrbotten 191,90 112,66 annual production [Mtpa] Sahavaara Södra, see Tapuli for Sweden Norrbotten 33,20 14,96 annual production [Mtpa] Ferrous metals Sweden Norrbotten 2450,4 1493,0 49,1 79,6 99,6 31,3 48,2 58,6 Aitik Sweden Norrbotten 3459,00 25,60 34,32 36,00 36,00 0,27 0,35 0,35 Liikavaara, see Aitik for annual Sweden Norrbotten 0,00 production [Mtpa] Liikavaara Östra, see Aitik for Sweden Norrbotten 4,00 0,09 annual production [Mtpa] Laver-Nya Sweden Norrbotten 690,00 5,52 35,00 0,28 Svartliden-Eva Sweden Norrbotten 5,63 0,31 0,50 0,03 Viscaria-Discovery cluster Sweden Norrbotten 33,70 11,73 3,50 3,50 1,22 1,22 Base metals Sweden Norrbotten 4192,3 43,2 34,3 39,5 75,0 0,3 1,6 1,9 Precious metals Sweden Norrbotten 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Sweden Norrbotten 6654,6 1538,4 83,6 119,3 175,6 31,8 50,0 60,7

Total Reserves and Crude ore [Mtpa] Products [Mtpa] Commodity resources [Mt] Name Country Territory Crude Products Year Year Year Year Year Year ore 0 5 10 0 5 10 Granlidsknösen Sweden Västerbotten 27,70 2,30 1,00 0,10 Industrial minerals Sweden Västerbotten 27,7 2,3 0,0 0,0 1,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 Rönnbäcken Fe in Ni **) Sweden Västerbotten 59,05 1,60 Ferrous metals Sweden Västerbotten 0,0 59,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 1,6 Kristineberg Sweden Västerbotten 13,94 1,35 0,65 0,65 0,65 0,06 0,06 0,06 Maurliden Västra Sweden Västerbotten 2,71 0,18 0,02 0,02 0,00 0,00 Maurliden Östra Sweden Västerbotten 0,55 0,01 0,56 0,56 0,56 0,02 0,02 0,02 Renström Sweden Västerbotten 8,39 1,12 0,28 0,28 0,28 0,04 0,04 0,04 Rönnbäcken Ni **) Sweden Västerbotten 687,40 4,42 30,00 0,10 Stekenjokk Sweden Västerbotten 4,96 0,56 0,60 0,07 Levimalmen, see Stekenjokk for Sweden Västerbotten 5,14 0,41 annual production [Mtpa] Vindelgransele Sweden Västerbotten 0,02 0,00 0,02 0,02 0,00 0,00 Base metals Sweden Västerbotten 723,1 8,1 1,5 1,5 32,1 0,1 0,1 0,3 Barsele-Au Sweden Västerbotten 34,30 0,00 1,50 0,00 Björkdal Sweden Västerbotten 39,98 0,00 1,15 1,15 1,15 0,00 0,00 0,00 Fäboliden Sweden Västerbotten 93,08 0,00 2,50 0,00 Kankberg-Åkulla Sweden Västerbotten 4,26 0,00 0,19 0,19 0,19 0,00 0,00 0,00 Svartliden Sweden Västerbotten 1,62 0,00 0,38 0,38 0,38 0,00 0,00 0,00 Vargbäcken Sweden Västerbotten 2,02 0,00 0,20 0,00 Älgträsk Sweden Västerbotten 4,20 0,00 0,40 0,00 Precious metals Sweden Västerbotten 179,5 0,0 1,7 1,7 6,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 All commodities Sweden Västerbotten 930,3 69,4 3,2 3,2 39,4 0,1 0,1 2,0

*) After the above database was locked from further input, new information on mineral reserves and resources at Sokli was made accessible by Yara. March 2013 total ore reserves (and resources) were 118.37 Mt at a grade of 12.8% phosphate.

**) Fe production at Rönnbäcken will only be valid if Ni production starts.

***) Sakatti Ni-Cu-PGE deposit. Figures estimated by GeoVista from publically released data. High uncertainty. iv) So called Per Geijer iron ores. Figures estimated by GeoVista from publically released data. High uncertainty. v) Pyhäsalmi. A pyrite product of 0.9 Mtpa is not included in the product column for total reserves and resources. vi) No figures found for industrial mineral reserves and resources in Lapland and Oulu.

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1 Appendix 2

Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database, Metallogenic and Industrial Mineral Deposit

Data

The Fennoscandian Ore Deposit Database (FODD) is a comprehensive numeric database on metallic mines, deposits and significant occurrences in Fennoscandia. The compilation is carried out in co-operation between the Geological Survey of Norway, the Geological survey of Sweden, the Geological survey of Finland, A.P. Karpinsky Russian Geological Research Institute (VSEGEI), Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation and St. Petersburg State Unitary Enterprise geological "Specialized firm" Mineral (SC Mineral). The information below describes the data and constitutes an excerpt from the Geological survey of Finland website:

Copyright: FODD © Geological Survey of Finland 2012.

 The metallogenic map has been published in December 2009, the metallic deposit map was updated in March 2013 and the latest update of the database was done in January 2013. The Industrial Mineral Deposits Map and preliminary data has been published in Auqust 2013.  The maps and the database have been compiled in a joint project between the geological surveys of Finland, Norway, Russia and Sweden. The database contains information on nearly 1700 mines, deposits and significant occurrences across the region. By country, there is information on: - 351 deposits in Finland - 210 deposits in Norway - 246 deposits in Russia - 883 deposits in Sweden  The metallogenic map contains 168 major metallogenic areas. Of these 46 are completely or mostly in Finland, 40 in Norway, 41 in Russia, and 41 in Sweden; these include 24 areas that cross international borders. By metal group, there are: - 48 areas dominated by potential on ferrous metals (Fe, Mn, Ti, V, Cr), - 36 on copper, zinc or lead (Cu, Zn, Pb), - 31 on precious metals (Ag, Au, PGE), - 30 on nickel or cobalt (Ni, Co), - 11 on metals used in modern advanced technologies (Li, PGE, REE, Ta, Zr).

 In cooperation with the Geological Survey of Sweden, Geological Survey of Norway, the state-owned company SC Mineral based in St. Petersburg, and the Institutes of Geology of the Russian Academy of Sciences at Petrozavodsk and Apatity, the Geological Survey of Finland (GTK) has compiled a new map showing all industrial mineral mines, past and present, and all the relevant deposits in Fennoscandia (Norway, Sweden, Finland, Karelia and the Kola Peninsula).

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2 Appendix 2

 The new industrial mineral deposit map indicates nearly 600 mineral deposits in Fennoscandia, of which 110 are currently active mines. The number of closed mines is 223 and 250 have not been exploited at all. The deposits on the map represent 35 different mineral commodities, of which 16 are in production at present. Of the active mines and unexploited deposits, about 100 contain resources of critical minerals or minerals which contain critical metals. In total, the map indicates: - 112 deposits in Finland - 127 deposits in Norway - 120 deposits in Russia - 224 deposits in Sweden  Of all deposits listed in the database, if we exclude the 498 mostly very small historic mines, 61 % have not been exploited at all. However, a number of these might well be economic in the future with additional reserves based on further exploration.  There are 43 large active mines, 19 large closed mines, 54 large unexploited deposits and 57 potentially large deposits in the database based on the relative value of the in situ metal contents. These include, by their most apparently significant commodity: 30 Ni, 29 Fe, 23 V, 15 Au, 13 REE, 12 Cr, 10 Cu, 7 Zn, 5 apatite, 5 PGE, 5 Ti, 5 Nb, 4 U, 4 Mo, 4 Be, and 1 Pb deposit. Naturally, a large majority of these also contain other potentially extractable commodities.  The FODD contains information on location, mining history, tonnage and commodity grades with a comment on data quality, geological setting, age, ore mineralogy, style of mineralisation, genetic models, and the primary sources of data. See the explanatory notes (540 KB) for the database. Please, note that the resource information for a deposit in the FODD is not necessarily in accordance with modern industrial standards (e.g. JORC and NI 43-101 codes), as such information only exists for some deposits recently explored or presently under exploitation.

Reference: www.gtk.fi 2013-12-17 http://en.gtk.fi/informationservices/databases/fodd/index.html

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