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Pdffull Publication A Symposium Sponsored By The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City MONETARY POLICY ISSUES IN THE 1990s A Symposium Sponsored By The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 30 - September 1, 1989 Contents Foreword v The Contributors vii The Moderators xiii Frederick H. Schultz Anthony M. Solomon Introduction IMPLEMENTING MONETARY POLICY IN A CHANGING WORLD Monetary Policy in the 1990s: Lessons and Challenges Charles Freedman Commentary: Lyle E. Grarnley Changing Effects of Monetary Policy on Real Economic Activity Benjamin M. Friedman Commentary: Ralph C. Bryant Policy Targets and Operating Procedures in the 1990s Donald L. Kohn Ian J. Macfarlane Yoshio Suzuki Europe 1992: Some Monetary Policy Issues Robin Leigh-Pemberton THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION OF MONETARY POLICY International Dimensions of Monetary Policy: Coordination Versus Autonomy Jacob A. Frenkel Morris Goldstein Paul R. Masson Commentary: Robert Solomon Commentary: John Williamson The Dollar in the 1990s: Competitiveness and the Challenges of New Economic Blocs Rudiger Dornbusch Commentary: Jeffrey A. Frankel Commentary: Alexander K. Swoboda OVERVIEW: Central Bank Perspectives John W. Crow Leonhard Gleske Alan Greenspan Symposium Participants Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium Series Foreword Early in the past decade, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City hosted an economic symposium focusing on "Monetary Policy Issues in the 1980s." That program discussed the complications of monetary policymaking in an environment of deregulation and rapid financial innovation. Recently, accelerating globalization of financial markets and increasing interdependence of the world's economies have made policymaking even more complex. Given the prospective continuation of these developments, the Bank devoted its 1989 symposium, the thirteenth in a series on major public policy issues, to "Monetary Policy Issues in the 1990s." An outstand- ing group of scholars and international authorities came together to share their views and consider monetary policy in a new decade. We appreciate the contributions of all those who took part and made it a notable success. Special thanks go to Gordon H. Sellon, Jr., assis- tant vice .president and economist; and Bryon Higgins, vice presi- dent and associate director of research, both in the Bank's Research Department, who helped develop the program. As we enter the 1990s, it is clear that the formulation and conduct of monetary policy in coming years will require increased cooperation and coordination among policymakers around the globe. We hope these proceedings will add to public understanding and encourage further inquiry into the complex monetary policy issues which lie ahead. ROGER GUFFEY President Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The Contributors Ralph C. Bryant, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Mr. Bryant has been a senior fellow in the Economic Studies pro- gram of The Brookings Institution since 1976. Prior to joining the staff there, he was associate economist and director of the Division of International Finance at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He has served as a consultant to the World Bank, the U.S. Treasury, and the National Science Foundation. Mr. Bryant has also been a professional lecturer in international finance at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. In 1983, he was the first recipient of the Distinguished Fellowship in Interna- tional Banking and Finance from the Institute of Southeastern Asian Studies in Singapore. John W. Crow, Governor, The Bank of Canada Mr. Crow was appointed governor of the Bank of Canada on February 1, 1987. He had been senior deputy governor at the Bank since 1984. Mr. Crow joined the Research Department of the Bank of Canada in 1973. He was appointed adviser to the governor in 1979 and deputy governor in 1981. Previously, Mr. Crow worked with the International Monetary Fund from 1961 to 1973. Mr. Crow is a member of the board of directors of the Federal Business Develop- ment Bank and the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation. vii viii The Contributors Rudiger Dornbusch, Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mr. Dornbusch is the Ford International Professor of Economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he has been a member of the faculty since 1975. He was previously on the faculties at the Universities of Chicago and Rochester. Presently, he is associate editor of the Quarterly Journal of Economics and Journal of Inter- national Economics. A research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research, he also serves on the Panel for Economic Activity at The Brookings Institution. Jeffrey A. Frankel, Professor, University of California-Berkeley Mr. Frankel is professor of economics at the University of Califor- nia at Berkeley and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. At the time of the Symposium, he was Visiting Professor of Public Policy at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He has had other visiting appointments with the International Monetary Fund, the Institute for International Economics, the Federal Reserve Board, the World Bank, and Yale University. A specialist in international finance and macroeconomics, he served at the President's Council of Economic Advisers in 1983-84 in the area of international economic policy. His research interests include the workings of the foreign exchange market, Japanese finan- cial liberalization, and worldwide financial integration. Charles Freedman, Deputy Governor, The Bank of Canada Mr. Freedman was appointed deputy governor of the Bank of Canada in 1988. His principal responsibilities relate to the area of monetary policy design and issues regarding financial institutions. Mr. Freedman joined the Bank of Canada in 1974, serving as research adviser in the Research Department, chief of the Department of Monetary and Financial Analysis, and adviser to the governor. Before joining the Bank of Canada, he spent five years on the faculty of the University of Minnesota, and currently serves as a research affiliate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Jacob A. Frenkel, Economic Counselor and Director of Research, International Monetary Fund Mr. Frenkel is economic counselor and Director of Research at the Ihe Contributors ix International Monetary Fund. He joined the faculty of the University of Chicago in 1973 and since 1982, has been the David Rockefeller Professor of International Economics. Mr. Frenkel is a fellow of the Econometric Society, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Group of Thirty. A former editor of the Journal of Political Economy, he currently serves on the board of editors of several economic journals. He was elected a Research Fellow at the Lehrman Institute in New York and a Fellow at the Mortimer and Raymond Sackler Institute of Advanced Studies in Tel Aviv. Benjamin M. Friedman, Professor, Harvard University Mr. Friedman is the William Joseph Maier Professor of Political Economy at Harvard University where he teaches macroeconomics and monetary economics and conducts a seminar on monetary and fiscal policy. His most recent book, Day of Reckoning: The Conse- quences of American Economic Policy Under Reagan and After (1988), won the George S. Eccles Prize for excellence in economics writing. Mr. Friedman is program director for financial markets and monetary economics at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a director of the Private Export Funding Corporation, a trustee of the Standish Investment Trust, an associate editor of the Journal of Monetary Economics, and a member of The Brookings Institution's Panel on Economic Activity as well as the Council on Foreign Rela- tions. He joined the Harvard faculty in 1972 after working in investment banking for Morgan Stanley & Co. Leonhard Gleske, Former Member of the Directorate, Deutsche Bundesbank Mr. Gleske retired in September, 1989, after having been a member of the board of the Deutsche Bundesbank since 1976. He had been in charge of foreign affairs and international monetary questions and served on the.Centra1 Bank Council. He is serving a second term as a member of the board of directors of the Bank for International Settlements. Before joining the Deutsche Bundesbank, Mr. Gleske spent 12 years as president of the Land Central Bank in Bremen. Earlier, he had been director for monetary and financial questions at the Commission of the European Economic Community. x The Contributors Morris Goldstein, Deputy Director, Research Department, Inter- national Monetary Fund Since joining the staff of the International Monetary Fund in 1970, Mr. Goldstein has filled several senior staff positions. He was named deputy director of the Fund's Research Department in 1987. He has also served as a research fellow at The Brookings Institution, as senior technical adviser at the U.S. Treasury Department, and as a visiting research associate at the London School of Economics. Mr. Gold- stein is a former member of the editorial board of IMF StaffPapers. Lyle E. Grarnley, Senior Staff Vice President and Chief Econo- mist, Mortgage Bankers Association Mr. Gramley is the senior staff vice president and chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. He joined the Association in 1985. Previously, he was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He joined the Federal Reserve in 1955 as a financial economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. In 1962, he joined the faculty of the University of Maryland. Mr. Gramley became a staff economist at the Federal Reserve Board in 1964, and was later named director of the Board's Division of Research and Statistics. In 1977, he became a member of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, where he continued until his appointment to the Federal Reserve Board in 1980. Alan Greenspan, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Mr. Greenspan began his four-year term as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in August 1987. Until his appointment as chairman, he had been chairman and president of the New York economic con- sulting firm of Townsend-Greenspan & Co., Inc.
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