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Cuaderno De Documentacion SECRETARIA DE ESTADO DE ECONOMÍA, MINISTERIO SECRETARÍA GENERAL DE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA DE ECONOMÍA Y ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL Y HACIENDA SUBDIRECCIÓN GENERAL DE ECONOMÍA INTERNACIONAL CUADERNO DE DOCUMENTACION Número 86-16º (alcance) Alvaro Espina Vocal Asesor 29 Octubre de 2008 (20 horas) CD 86-16º de alcance 29 de Octubre de 2008 “Beijing responded favourably to Korea's proposal for a regional bail-out fund, but Tokyo deferred, fearing that this would be dominated by China, given that country's immense dollar reserves. Tokyo then proposed funneling Asian reserves through the IMF, but China deferred, fearing that this initiative would be dominated by Japan, which has long participated in IMF deliberations. Financial diplomacy is evidently more difficult than in 1944. ......, move quickly from the leaders' meeting, which is largely about the photo-ops, to the meeting of finance ministers, where the real business will occur. And once there, focus on pragmatic reforms. Clamp down on regulatory arbitrage. Raise capital requirements. Make the regulatory regime less procyclical. Use taxes and regulation to drive transactions in credit default swaps and other derivative instruments into an organised exchange. This modest approach will not be hailed as a New World Financial Order. But it will be a useful first step toward making the world a safer financial place. And it will minimise the danger that the new Bretton Woods conference will go down in history as a failure.” Barry Eichengreen: “New world pragmatism” Soluciones baratas, limpias, rápidas, arbitrajistas y, a ser posible, sin coste para el contribuyente. Pragmatismo. Eso es lo que necesitamos para salir de la crisis. El CD 86-15º proporcionaba dos fórmulas de este tipo para hacer frente al Armagedón de los hedge funds y de los mercados de divisas (anticipándose al desplazamiento del epicentro de la crisis hacia las quiebras de los deudores soberanos, tras extenderse, dentro de EEUU, a las tarjetas de crédito y a las grandes empresas de automoción y tras la amenaza que ya se cierne sobre la Europa del Este): el “hedgy- corralito”, y el fondo de estabilización gestionado por un fiduciario internacional por cuenta de los países aportantes (al que denominaremos Cristina-proof-IMF). Este último parece gustarle también a Japón, aunque China lo condicionaría, obviamente, a tener algo que decir en ese foro, lo que señala la buena dirección a seguir en la cumbre de Noviembre. (En 1 cualquier caso, la admisión de China en cualquier nuevo foro económico internacional debería condicionarse al respeto por su parte de los derechos laborales fundamentales, supervisado por la OIT. Mientras esto no ocurra, sólo debería participar en iniciativas parciales, como la del consejo de administración del fondo de estabilización, pero no en el del FMI). Una cumbre que para Barry Eichengreenn debe dar paso enseguida a las discusiones técnicas, que es de donde saldrá algo práctico (frente a las elevadas espectativas que ponen en la cumbre-cumbre Paul Rogers y Bernard-Henri Levy: este último considera que hasta entonces el Apocalipsis se encuentra en suspenso). Eichengreen presenta también un paper ante la NBER en la que estudia los riesgos de un boom seguido de un pinchazo en Polonia, a la vista de lo ocurrido con la etapa pre-euro y post- euro en Chipre, Grecia, Irlanda, Malta, Portugal y España. Luigi Zingales –tras hacer la contabilidad astronómica del rosario de planes de rescate que amenazan con asfixiarnos- aporta en Enonomists’ Voice otras dos soluciones, también muy baratitas y capaces de conjugar reestructuración e interés de los partícipes (haciéndoles participar tambien un poquito del riesgo en que han incurrido). Como Zingales es uno de los mayores expertos mundiales en economía y finanzas de la quiebra, sus soluciones son de ese tipo y sólo tienen costo para los reguladores (que deberían actuar deprisa, par que cuando sus normas entren en vigor quede algo por reparar, especialmente en el caso de los hogares hipotecados en las zonas de mayor desigualdad): 1.- Una nueva figura estandarizada de restructuración de deuda hipotecaria, bajo protección judicial (obligatoria para el prestamista, pero voluntaria para el prestatario insolvente): Se reduciría el monto total de la hipoteca en la misma proporción en que han caído los precios de las casas en el correspondiente distrito desde el momento en que se suscribió la hipoteca (utilizando para ello el índice Case-Schiller de precios de la vivienda por distrito postal). En contrapartida, el prestamista adquiriría un derecho al 50% de la diferencia entre el valor de la hipoteca revisada y el precio de venta de la vivienda en el momento en que el prestatario se desprenda de ella, durante el período de vida de la hipoteca. (En caso de cancelación anticipada, con venta posterior, la distribución de la 2 diferencia debería ser proporcional al peso de la hipoteca pendiente de pago en el momento de la decisión judicial de reestructuración, respecto al valor reestimado de la vivienda en esa decisión). 2.- Nueva figura de reestructuración bancaria instantánea (pre-packaged) bajo supervisión judicial, alternativa a la entrada del Tesoro en el capital de los bancos. En caso de grave insolvencia bancaria, se ofrece a los accionistas la posibilidad de abonar la parte alícuota de la deuda pendiente (excluida la deuda a corto plazo). De rechazarse, en todo o en parte, el accionista perdería esos derechos y el juez (con facultades Cramdown) los transferiría a los titulares de la deuda. Un saneamiento de este tipo se exigiría a todos los bancos en dificultades para seguir acudiendo a la ventanilla de redescuento de la Fed. Si los titulares de la deuda son instituciones que no pueden invertir en acciones, se les concede un plazo de dos años para desprenderse de ellas. Esta figura no daría lugar a la activación de los seguros contra quiebra (CDS). Y, siguiendo con propuestas sin coste para el contribuyente, Stephen Roach reaparece en escena y sugiere desde FT, sin alzar demasiado la voz, que el Congreso debería redefinir el mandato político de la Fed, añadiendo a las cuatro palabras que lo han definido hasta ahora (full employment & prices stability) dos más: financial stability. Aunque con gran discrección, el desterrado Stephen Roach (antes llamado el avinagrado, convertido ahora en el que le canta las verdades a América) sugiere cosas muy sencillas para corregir el “enfoque repudiable” de una Fed que acabó especializándose en la “negligencia regulatoria” y en la “patochada sistemática”: Sustituir la convicción ideológica por el sentido común1; la política reactiva por políticas preventivas; la confianza en las verdades ideológicas por la medición objetiva de los fenómenos financieros. Aprender a ir contra la corriente, en lugar de echar leña al fuego de los mercados de activos; a exigir requerimientos marginales para el crédito durante el boom, en lugar de hacer la vista gorda a la aparición de productos financieros exóticos a tipos de interés nulo. Todo ello, sin olvidar que la Fed, como toda institución pública, tiene también una misión de persuasión moral sobre los comportamientos de los agentes financieros, contrapuesta a la manga ancha ante el juego 1 Larry Kudlow piensa que el sentido común actual consiste en aplicar sin dogmatismos una mezcla de políticas: Reagan+Friedman+Keynes. 3 de moral hazard que se practicaba abiertamente bajo sus ojos, haciendo pasar por innovación la peor basura de la ingeniería financiera2. Todo eso cabe sólo en dos palabras, añadidas al mandato de la Fed: estabilidad financiera. Decir esto ahora no tiene mérito, cuando todo el mundo rivaliza en saldar cuentas con la Fed (y con algunos más: véase el rosario de responsabilidades que Steve H. Hanke enumera en Forbes, aunque desde las posiciones fundamentalistas defendidas por CATO). El mérito estaba en decirlo apoyándose exclusivamente en la teoría económica comúnmente admitida y en la evidencia más fácilmente observable, pero cuando nadie quería escucharlo y cuando el que lo decía se arriesgaba al destierro a Asia desde uno de los puestos más brillantes para un economista en la capital financiera del mundo. Porque la crisis no sólo está permitiendo depurar los mercados, sino también las profesiones que se ocupan de ellos, y especialmente la de los economistas (por no hablar de los amos del universo, que no salen de su dorado asombro, retirados a su refugio de Greenwich, todavía conmocionados por la bomba atómica financiera que ellos mismos arrojaron, pero sin el menor asomo de arrepentimiento: eso si, buscando ahora verdades más sólidas...., en la parroquia del lugar). Y entre todos los economistas que se han dejado ver durante los roaring nineties y los no-tan-alegres Twenty-first century beginnings, Roach es probablemente el que ha salido deontológicamente más incólume: se la jugó y pareció salir derrotado, hasta que la debacle vino a colocar a cada uno en su sitio. Sin esa calidad de roca incorruptible no se puede dirigir la nueva Fed. Stephen Roach es el hombre. Si, como dice Natalia Redesberg lo que se ha llevado por delante a Wall Street ha sido la desconfianza, ésta no volverá mientras no se sitúe al frente de la supervisión a alguien de la máxima confianza y experiencia en los mercados. Pero para eso debe haber un cambio en Washington y seguramente lo habrá si 2 A título de ejemplo, véase “La Anatomía de un colapso ficticio de Fondo de alto riesgo”, publicada en 2005 por Rob Kirby (incluida en este CD). 4 no se produce un “desastre para el derecho de voto” el próximo9 día 5, como se teme Christopher Edley Jr, decano de Berkeley. Y ¿qué decir de los hedgies? Sobre la necesidad de una regulación estricta hay mucho papel en este CD. Para David Weidner, mientras no se regule su actuación no habrá verdadera calma en los mercados (porque es bien sabido que son una bomba de relojería, pero nadie sabe de cuánta potencia ni cuando estallará: véase la narración ficticia de Rob Kirby).
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