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Equity Research Department January 20, 2011 Equity Research Procter & Gamble Co. PG: Initiated Coverage With Outperform Rating, $70-73 Valuation Outperform D&E Opportunities Should Drive Top-Line, Op Mgn, And EPS Growth • Summary: We have initiated coverage of PG with an Outperform rating on the Sector: Household and Personal Care shares and a $70-73 valuation range. Our rating within our Market Weight Products Household and Personal Care sector rating is based on (1) P&G's industry- Market Weight leading research and development (R&D) investments, (2) penetration acceleration in developing and emerging (D&E) markets (i.e., more relative runway versus competitors), and (3) leveraging of both scale and financial Initiation of Coverage strength to increase earnings. Near-term gross margin will likely be restrained by rising input costs. Long-term gross or operating margin expansion will likely 2010A 2011E 2012E be driven by ongoing cost-saving initiatives, improving business and product EPS Curr. Prior Curr. Prior mix, and leveraging of distribution expansion. P&G's portfolio provides a Q1 (Sep.) $0.97 $1.02 A NC$1.13NE competitive advantage with (1) broad exposure to fast-growing categories, Q2 (Dec.) 1.10 1.10 NE 1.20 NE (2) strong margin from scale in market-leading brands, and (3) efficiency Q3 (Mar.) 0.89 1.00 NE 1.11 NE entering D&E markets. P&G will likely continue to make small to midsize Q4 (June) 0.71 0.86 NE 0.95 NE accretive acquisitions. Current valuations on our 2012 estimates are 31% and FY $3.67 $3.98 NE $4.39 NE CY $3.72 $4.19 $4.61 27% below and above the low end of historical P/E and enterprise value (EV)-to- FY P/E 17.8x 16.4x 14.9x EBITDA ranges. Our range reflects the collective lower third of historical Rev. (MM) $78,938 $81,873 $85,446 forward P/E and EV-to-EBITDA ranges. We believe strong free cash flow, a Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate, NM = Not Meaningful strong balance sheet, prudent capital deployment, and a 2.9% dividend yield V = Volatile, = Company is on the Priority Stock List should provide downside risk support to the stock. We believe PG will outperform the sector and the S&P 500 on a total return basis. • FY2011E And FY2012E Key Assumptions. Our FY2011 and FY2012 EPS Ticker PG estimates of $3.98 and $4.39 are based upon 4.0% and 4.4% organic revenue Price (01/20/2011) $65.35 growth, and modest operating margin improvement. 52-Week Range: $39-66 • Upcoming Catalysts. These include (1) January 27, 2011, FQ2 2011 earnings, Shares Outstanding: (MM) 3,025.6 and (2) CY2011 new product announcements. Relative returns versus the S&P Market Cap.: (MM) $199,084.0 500 are best during the August through October period, with the best returns S&P 500: 1,280.26 occurring in September. The stock tends to underperform the market early in the Avg. Daily Vol.: 10,803,200 calendar year, with the worst returns usually occurring in April. Dividend/Yield: $1.93/2.9% LT Debt: (MM) $32,976.0 LT Debt/Total Cap.: 34.3% Valuation Range: $70.00 to $73.00 ROE: 18.0% Our valuation range represents 15.2-15.8x P/E, 10.9-11.3x EV-to-EBITDA, and 3-5 Yr. Est. Growth Rate: 10.0% 6.6%-6.4% free cash flow yield to our CY2012 EPS, EBITDA and free cash flow per CY 2011 Est. P/E-to-Growth: 1.6x share estimates of $4.61, $7.72, and $4.64, respectively. Risks to our range include Last Reporting Date: 10/27/2010 (1) prolonged global economic downturn, (2) foreign exchange fluctuations, (3) an Before Open increase in taxes on international profits, (4) aggressive competitive discounting, Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates, and Reuters (5) loss of a major customer (Wal-Mart, Target), (6) significant input cost inflation, (7) integration risk and dilution related to future acquisitions, and (8) European antitrust issues. Timothy Conder, CPA, Senior Analyst Investment Thesis: (314) 955-5743 A diversified portfolio, deep management team, industry-leading R&D investments, [email protected] developing and emerging markets prospects, and opportunities to leverage scale Joe Lachky, Associate Analyst (314) 955-2061 and financial strength provide P&G with a competitive advantage over competitors. [email protected] Valuations should expand to the collective lower third of historical ranges given Michael K. Walsh, CFA, CPA, Associate Analyst accelerating top-line and EPS growth rates and near-term risks from commodity (314) 955-6277 prices and foreign exchange. [email protected] Please see page 38 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. PG010611-084724 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Household and Personal Care Products EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT Company Description Procter & Gamble Co., based in Cincinnati, Ohio, is the largest global manufacturer and marketer of consumer packaged goods. The company produces a very diverse set of products in the Beauty, Grooming, Health Care, Snacks and Pet Care, Fabric Care and Home Care, and Baby Care and Family Care segments. The brand portfolio is extremely deep with 50 "leadership brands," including 23 billion-dollar brands. Key brand names include Crest toothpaste, Duracell batteries, Gillette razors, Olay skin care, Pampers diapers, Pantene hair care, and Tide laundry detergent. Products are sold in over 180 countries primarily through mass merchandisers, grocery stores, club stores, drug stores, and high-frequency stores (neighborhood stores in developing markets). See www.pg.com. Investment Thesis And Valuation We have initiated coverage of Procter & Gamble with an Outperform rating on the shares and a $70-73 valuation range. Procter & Gamble is the largest global manufacturer and marketer of consumer packaged goods with a diversified portfolio of well-known brands (Crest, Duracell, Gillette, Olay, Pampers, Pantene, and Tide) and a deep management team. P&Gs sales are primarily concentrated in the fabric care and home care segment (29.6% of net sales) and the beauty segment (24.3% of net sales), but the company also has exposure in baby care, family care, health care, grooming, snacks, and pet care categories. Among the major industry players, P&G has a large and growing footprint in the high-growth developing and emerging markets (33% of net sales). We believe organic sales growth will return to mid-single digits and EPS should accelerate to low-double-digit rates over the next few years, driven by a multi-tiered growth strategy and cost- saving initiatives, coupled with ongoing share repurchases. We believe P&Gs organic sales and earnings growth should accelerate driven by (1) new products from industry-leading R&D investments, (2) penetration accelerating in developing and emerging markets (i.e., more relative runway versus the companys largest competitors), and (3) leveraging both scale and financial strength (i.e., margin, balance sheet, cash flow) to increase earnings. Near-term gross and operating margin expansion will likely be driven by ongoing cost- saving initiatives, at least partially offset by input cost and foreign exchange headwinds. Long-term margin growth will likely be driven by simplification of businesses and processes, improving business and product mix, and leveraging of distribution expansion. We believe P&Gs diversified product portfolio provides a competitive advantage given (1) high relative exposure to fast-growing product categories, (2) strong margin from scale in market-leading brands, and (3) efficiency entering developing and emerging markets with fast purchase cycle products (i.e., detergents, baby care, and feminine care) to quickly build scale. We believe the stock will outperform the sector and the S&P 500 on a total return basis. Valuations are currently 31% and 27% below and above the low end of historical forward P/E and EV-to- EBITDA ranges, respectively, on our 2012 estimates. Strong free cash flow, a high-grade balance sheet, prudent excess capital deployment (likely further dividend increases, share repurchases, and small to midsize accretive acquisitions), and the current 2.9% dividend yield all should provide downside risk support to the stock. Upcoming data points include (1) updated FY2011 guidance concurrent with FQ2 2011 earnings, and (2) CY2011 new product announcements. Our valuation range represents 15.2-15.8x P/E, 10.9-11.3x EV-to-EBITDA, and 6.4-6.6% free cash flow yield to our CY2012 EPS, EBITDA and free cash flow/share estimates of $4.61, $7.72, and $4.64, respectively. Since 1991 (excluding the aberrational years of 1997-2000), P&Gs historical forward valuation ranges are 15.6-20.0x P/E, 9.6-12.0x EV-to-EBITDA, and a 4.8-6.4% free cash flow yield. We believe multiples should expand to the approximate the collective lower third of historical ranges given (1) lower-than-historical, but accelerating, top-line and EPS growth rates, and (2) near-term risks to estimates from input costs and foreign exchange. Investment Risks A prolonged U.S. or worldwide economic downturn from current levels Foreign exchange swings given that 62% of revenue is international An increase in taxes on international profit Aggressive competitive conditions necessitating discounting and promotions Loss of a major customer (Wal-Mart, Target) Significant input cost inflation Integration risks and potential dilution related to future acquisitions Industrywide European antitrust issues 2 WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, LLC Procter & Gamble Co.
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