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New England and Northern New York Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: a Report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework Project

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New England and Northern New York Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the New England Climate Change Response Framework Project Maria K. Janowiak, Anthony W. D’Amato, Christopher W. Swanston, Louis Iverson, Frank R. Thompson III, William D. Dijak, Stephen Matthews, Matthew P. Peters, Anantha Prasad, Jacob S. Fraser, Leslie A. Brandt, Patricia Butler-Leopold, Stephen D. Handler, P. Danielle Shannon, Diane Burbank, John Campbell, Charles Cogbill, Matthew J. Duveneck, Marla R. Emery, Nicholas Fisichelli, Jane Foster, Jennifer Hushaw, Laura Kenefic, Amanda Mahaffey, Toni Lyn Morelli, Nicholas J. Reo, Paul G. Schaberg, K. Rogers Simmons, Aaron Weiskittel, Sandy Wilmot, David Hollinger, Erin Lane, Lindsey Rustad, and Pamela H. Templer AUthOrs MARIA K. JANOWIAK is the deputy director of the Northern STEPHEN D. HANDLER is a climate change specialist with the Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest Service, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, Service, 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. [email protected]. ANTHONY W. D’AMATO is an associate professor of silviculture P. DANIELLE SHANNON is the coordinator of the USDA Northern and applied forest ecology with the University of Vermont, Forests Climate Hub, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, Science, Michigan Technological University, School of Forest 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, VT 05405, [email protected]. Resources and Environmental Science, 1400 Townsend Drive, CHRISTOPHER W. SWANSTON is the director of the Northern Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest Service, DIANE BURBANK is an ecologist and geographic information 410 MacInnes Drive, Houghton, MI 49931, systems coordinator with the U.S. Forest Service, Green [email protected]. Mountain National Forest, 231 N. Main Street, Rutland, VT LOUIS IVERSON is a landscape ecologist with the U.S. Forest 05701, [email protected]. Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, JOHN CAMPBELL is a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest OH 43015, [email protected]. Service, Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, FRANK R. THOMPSON III is a research wildlife biologist with the NH 03824, [email protected]. U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser- CHARLES COGBILL is an independent scientist in Plainfield, VT Busch Natural Resources Building, University of Missouri – 05667. Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. MATTHEW J. DUVENECK is a research associate with the WILLIAM D. DIJAK is a wildlife biologist and geographic Harvard Forest, 324 N. Main Street, Petersham, MA 01366, information systems specialist with the U.S. Forest Service, [email protected]. Northern Research Station, 202 Anheuser-Busch Natural MARLA R. EMERY is a research geographer with the U.S. Resources Building, University of Missouri – Columbia, Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 81 Carrigan Drive, Columbia, MO 65211, [email protected]. Burlington, VT 05405, [email protected]. STEPHEN MATTHEWS is an assistant professor of wildlife NICHOLAS FISICHELLI is the forest ecology program director landscape ecology at Ohio State University, 2021 Coffey Road, with Schoodic Institute at Acadia National Park, Columbus, OH 43210, [email protected]. 9 Atterbury Circle, Winter Harbor, ME 04063, MATTHEW P. PETERS is an ecologist with the U.S. Forest Service, [email protected]. Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware OH JANE FOSTER is a senior research associate with the University 43015, [email protected]. of Vermont, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural ANANTHA PRASAD is a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest Resources, 81 Carrigan Drive, Burlington, VT 05405, Service, Northern Research Station, 359 Main Road, Delaware, [email protected]. OH 43015, [email protected]. JENNIFER HUSHAW is an applied forest scientist at Manomet, JACOB S. FRASER is a research specialist and doctoral student, P.O. Box 1770, Manomet, MA 02345, [email protected]. University of Missouri, Department of Forestry, LAURA KENEFIC is a research forester with the U.S. Forest 203 Anheuser-Busch Natural Resources Building, University Service, Northern Research Station, 686 Government Road, of Missouri – Columbia, Columbia, MO 65211, Bradley, ME 04411, [email protected]. [email protected]. AMANDA MAHAFFEY is the Northeast region director of the LESLIE A. BRANDT is a climate change specialist with the Forest Stewards Guild, 612 W. Main Street, Suite 200, Madison, Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, U.S. Forest WI 53703, [email protected]. Service, 1992 Folwell Avenue, St. Paul, MN 55108, [email protected]. TONI LYN MORELLI is a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey at the Department of the Interior Northeast PATRICIA BUTLER-LEOPOLD is a climate change outreach Climate Science Center, Amherst, MA 01035, [email protected]. specialist with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science, Michigan Technological University, School of Forest NICHOLAS J. REO is an assistant professor of environmental Resources and Environmental Science, 1400 Townsend Drive, studies and Native American studies at Dartmouth College, Houghton, MI 49931, [email protected]. 6182 Steele Hall, Hanover, NH 03755, [email protected]. PAUL G. SCHABERG is a research plant physiologist with the U.S. DAVID HOLLINGER is a plant physiologist and project leader Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 81 Carrigan Drive, with the U.S. Forest Service, Northern Research Station, Burlington, VT 05405, [email protected]. 271 Mast Road, Durham, NH 03824, [email protected]. K. ROGERS SIMMONS is retired and was the natural resources ERIN LANE is a natural resource specialist with the U.S. Forest staff officer with the U.S. Forest Service, White Mountain Service, Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, National Forest, 71 White Mountain Drive, Campton, NH 03253. NH 03824, [email protected]. AARON WEISKITTEL is an associate professor of forest modeling LINDSEY RUSTAD is a research ecologist with the U.S. Forest and biometrics at the University of Maine, School of Forest Service, Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, Resources, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME 04469, NH 03824, [email protected]. [email protected]. PAMELA H. TEMPLER is a professor at Boston University, SANDY WILMOT is a forest health specialist with the Vermont Department of Biology, 5 Cummington Mall, Boston, MA 02215, Agency of Natural Resources, Department of Forests, Parks and [email protected]. Recreation, 111 West Street, Essex Junction, VT 05452. Preface This assessment is a fundamental component of the The scope of the assessment is terrestrial forested New England Climate Change Response Framework ecosystems, with a particular focus on tree species. project. The Framework is a collaborative, cross- We acknowledge that climate change will also have boundary approach among scientists, managers, impacts on aquatic systems, wildlife, and human and landowners to incorporate climate change systems, but addressing these issues in depth is considerations into natural resource management. beyond the scope of this assessment. Six Framework projects are currently underway, The large list of authors reflects the highly covering about 250 million acres in the U.S. collaborative nature of this assessment. The overall Midwest and Northeast: Northwoods, Central document structure and much of the language was Appalachians, Central Hardwoods, Mid-Atlantic, a coordinated effort among Leslie Brandt, Patricia New England, and Urban. Each regional project Butler-Leopold, Maria Janowiak, Stephen Handler, interweaves four components: science and and Chris Swanston. Danielle Shannon conducted management partnerships, vulnerability assessments, much of the data analysis and developed maps for adaptation resources, and demonstration projects. Chapters 1, 2, and 3. Louis Iverson, Steve Matthews, We designed this assessment to be a synthesis of Matthew Peters, and Anantha Prasad provided and the best available scientific information on climate interpreted Tree Atlas information for Chapter 4, change and forest ecosystems. Its primary goal and assisted with the data processing for the climate is to inform forest managers and natural resource data presented in Chapter 3. Frank Thompson, professionals in New England and northern New Bill Dijak, and Jacob Fraser provided results and York, in addition to other people who study, interpretation of the LINKAGES and LANDIS PRO recreate, and live in these forests. As new scientific models. All modeling teams coordinated their efforts information arises, we may develop future versions impressively. to reflect that accumulated knowledge and In addition to the authors listed, a number of people understanding. Most importantly, this assessment made valuable contributions to the assessment. does not make recommendations about how this We especially thank Colin Beier and Erika information should be used. Rowland, who provided formal technical reviews of the assessment. Their thorough reviews greatly improved the quality of this assessment. COntents Executive Summary . 1 Introduction . .6 Chapter 1: Current Forest Conditions . 10 Chapter 2: Observed Climate Change . 26 Chapter 3: Projected Changes in Climate and Physical Processes . 37 Chapter 4: Future Climate
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