Chapter III.B.3.)

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Chapter III.B.3.) II. THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION A. Introduction This chapter outlines the work of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2013, including the historic results of the 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali, Indonesia, and the work anticipated for 2014 to continue to find new, credible approaches to advancing negotiations in the WTO, including under the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). This chapter also details work of WTO Standing Committees and their subsidiary bodies, provides an overview of the implementation and enforcement of the WTO Agreement, and discusses accessions of new members to this rules-based organization. The United States maintains an abiding commitment to the rules-based multilateral trading system, which advances the well-being of the people of the United States and of our trading partners. The WTO represents the multilateral bedrock of U.S. trade policy, playing a vital role in securing new economic opportunities for American workers, farmers, ranchers, manufacturers, and service providers and promoting global growth and development with widely shared benefits. The United States continues to take a leadership role at the WTO, working to ensure that trade makes a powerful contribution in expanding the global economy. The WTO provides a forum for enforcing U.S. rights under the various WTO agreements to ensure that the United States receives the full benefits of WTO membership. The WTO agreements also provide a foundation for high-standard U.S. bilateral and regional agreements that make a positive contribution to a dynamic and open global trading system based on the rule of law. On a day-to-day basis, the WTO provides opportunities for advancing U.S. interests through its more than 20 standing committees (not including numerous additional working groups, working parties, and negotiating bodies). These groups meet regularly to permit WTO Members to exchange views, work to resolve questions of Members’ compliance with commitments, and develop initiatives aimed at systemic improvements. The DDA is the ninth round of multilateral trade negotiations to be carried out since the end of World War II. At the WTO’s Eighth Ministerial Conference in Geneva, Switzerland in December 2011, there was a consensus among Ministers that the DDA was at an impasse, with “significantly different perspectives on . possible results.” The agreed summary for the Ministerial Conference noted that “Members need to more fully explore different negotiating approaches,” and reiterated previous ministerial guidance that, where progress can be achieved on specific elements of the DDA, provisional or definitive agreements might be reached before all elements of the negotiating agenda are fully resolved. During the course of 2012 and 2013, Members took this guidance to heart in working collectively to complete a “Bali Package,” which included, in the form of the groundbreaking Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), the first new multilateral agreement in the nearly 20 year history of the WTO. The TFA, when fully implemented, will ensure that all WTO Members apply a variety of trade- facilitating customs and related measures that promise to substantially decrease the costs associated with trading and increase the value and volume of global trade. The Bali package also included important results on agriculture, such as decisions on food security, tariff-rate quota administration, export competition, and development, including a new Monitoring Mechanism to allow experience-based reviews of the implementation and operation of special and differential treatment provisions in WTO agreements. In parallel, the United States and other WTO Members have generated renewed focus on the day-to-day work of the WTO’s standing committees and other bodies, which remained instrumental in promoting transparency of WTO Member trade policies and providing critical fora for monitoring and resisting protectionist pressures during a time of global economic challenges. Through discussions in these fora, II. The World Trade Organization | 1 Members sought detailed information on individual Members’ trade policy actions and collectively considered them in light of WTO rules and their impact on individual Members and the trading system as a whole. The discussions enabled Members to assess their trade-related actions and policies in light of concerns that other Members raised and to consider and address those concerns in domestic policymaking. The United States also took advantage of opportunities in standing committees to consider how implementation of existing WTO provisions can be enhanced and to discuss areas that may hold potential for developing future rules. B. The Doha Development Agenda under the Trade Negotiations Committee and Other Priority WTO Activities The DDA was launched in Doha, Qatar, in November 2001, at the 4th WTO Ministerial Conference, where Ministers provided a mandate for negotiations on a range of subjects and work in WTO Committees. In addition, the mandate gives further direction on the WTO’s existing work program and implementation of the WTO Agreement. The goal of the DDA is to reduce trade barriers in order to expand global economic growth, development, and opportunity. The main focus of the negotiations under the DDA is in the following areas: agriculture; industrial goods market access; services; trade facilitation; WTO rules (i.e., trade remedies, fisheries subsidies, and regional trade agreements); and development. The Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC), established at the WTO’s Fourth Ministerial Conference in Doha, oversees the agenda and negotiations under the DDA in cooperation with the WTO General Council. The WTO Director General serves as Chairman of the TNC (Annex II identifies the various negotiating groups and special bodies responsible for the negotiations, some of which are the responsibility of the WTO General Council). In 2013, WTO Members worked collectively to follow through on the guidance from the 8th Ministerial Conference in order to make progress on discreet areas of the DDA with the possibility of early results. Broadly, the United States joined others in validating that the WTO had “turned the page” in the DDA negotiations and that only new, creative approaches could offer opportunities for delivering results. In this regard, the Membership focused on a select number of specific areas identified by Members for inclusion in the Bali Package, with the core result being the new TFA, supplemented by additional decisions on agriculture and development, particularly measures in favor of least developed countries. At the 9th Ministerial Conference in Bali in December 2013, Members hailed the completion of the Bali Package, which the new WTO Director General, Roberto Azevêdo, described as a much-needed vote of confidence in the WTO’s ability to complete multilateral trade negotiations. The Bali Package included a Ministerial Declaration directing Members to take up other parts of the Doha Agenda, including priority areas of the Round and those on which legally binding results were not included in the Package. Beyond the DDA negotiations, Parties to the WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA), a plurilateral agreement within the WTO framework, announced in Bali their expectation that the revised GPA should enter into force by March of 2014, and the United States presented its instrument of acceptance in Bali. The WTO is much more than a negotiating forum and venue for filing dispute settlement cases. The United States believes that the WTO demonstrates its value every day through the work of the standing committees and other WTO bodies. In 2013, the United States made effective use of the Council on Trade in Goods, the Committee on Import Licensing, and the Committee on Agriculture to raise the profile of trade protectionist actions by other Members. In the Committee on Technical Barriers to Trade, 2 | II. The World Trade Organization the United States and other Members began follow up work to the Sixth Triennial Review of that WTO agreement, including substantial progress in completing recommendations on good regulatory practices. Overall the United States noted the new energy in the operations of the WTO during the course of 2013, including areas outside the DDA, such as negotiations on a new Information Technology Agreement. This greater appreciation for the broad spectrum of WTO work, from the DDA to other areas, may be the critical factor in sustaining the relevance of the WTO in international trade in years to come. Prospects for 2014 The United States will continue to play a leadership role across the range of WTO activities. It is particularly important to sustain and enhance the WTO’s critical work in monitoring and providing a forum for resisting protectionism. Accordingly, the United States will be devoting additional attention to making the best possible use of the WTO’s existing committees and other structures, using them both to advance specific U.S. trade policy objectives as well as to ensure the ongoing strength and credibility of the multilateral trading system. Additionally, the United States will take up a leadership role in the follow up to the Bali Ministerial, seeking to inject new direction and creative approaches in other areas of the DDA that have been dormant in recent years. 1. Committee on Agriculture, Special Session Status Negotiations in the Special Session of the Committee on Agriculture are conducted under the mandate agreed upon at the Fourth WTO Ministerial Conference in Doha, Qatar that
Recommended publications
  • The Global Trading System
    COVER STORY • Global Governance at a Crossroads – a Roadmap Towards the G20 Summit in Osaka • 3 he Global Trading System: What Went Wrong & How to Fix It TBy Edward Alden Author Edward Alden Introduction in what will become a prolonged era of growing nationalism and protectionism. Gideon Rachman, the Financial Times columnist, has It has now been more than a quarter century since the United argued that the nationalist backlash symbolized by Trump’s election States, the European Union (EU), Japan and more than 100 other and the 2016 Brexit vote in the United Kingdom is likely to spread to countries came together to conclude the Uruguay Round global trade other countries and persist for several decades. But, he noted, those agreement and establish the World Trade Organization (WHO). It was movements will have to show that they can deliver not just promises a time of extraordinary optimism. Mickey Kantor, US trade but real economic results. So far – as the process of the UK representative for President Bill Clinton, had endured many sleepless government and parliament’s efforts to leave the EU show – real nights with his counterparts to bring the deal home by the Dec. 15, economic results have not been delivered. But champions of 1993 deadline. He promised the new agreement would “raise the globalization and the “rules-based trading system” cannot simply standard of living not only for Americans, but for workers all over the wait and hope that the failures of economic nationalism will become world”. Every American family, he said, would gain some $17,000 evident.
    [Show full text]
  • A Citizen's Guide to the World Trade Organization
    A Citizens Guide to THE WORLD TRADE A Citizens Guide to the World Trade ORGANIZATION Organization Published by the Working Group on the WTO / MAI, July 1999 Printed in the U.S. by Inkworks, a worker- owned union shop ISBN 1-58231-000-9 EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW TO The contents of this pamphlet may be freely reproduced provided that its source FIGHT FOR is acknowledged. FAIR TRADE THE WTO AND this system sidelines environmental rules, health safeguards and labor CORPORATE standards to provide transnational GLOBALIZATION corporations (TNCs) with a cheap supply of labor and natural resources. The WTO also guarantees corporate access to What do the U.S. Cattlemen’s Associa- foreign markets without requiring that tion, Chiquita Banana and the Venezu- TNCs respect countries’ domestic elan oil industry have in common? These priorities. big business interests were able to defeat hard-won national laws ensuring The myth that every nation can grow by food safety, strengthening local econo- exporting more than they import is central mies and protecting the environment by to the neoliberal ideology. Its proponents convincing governments to challenge the seem to forget that in order for one laws at the World Trade Organization country to export an automobile, some (WTO). other country has to import it. Established in 1995, the WTO is a The WTO Hurts U.S. Workers - Steel powerful new global commerce agency, More than 10,000 which transformed the General Agree- high-wage, high-tech ment on Tarriffs and Trade (GATT) into workers in the U.S. an enforceable global commercial code.
    [Show full text]
  • World Trade Statistical Review 2021
    World Trade Statistical Review 2021 8% 4.3 111.7 4% 3% 0.0 -0.2 -0.7 Insurance and pension services Financial services Computer services -3.3 -5.4 World Trade StatisticalWorld Review 2021 -15.5 93.7 cultural and Personal, services recreational -14% Construction -18% 2021Q1 2019Q4 2019Q3 2020Q1 2020Q4 2020Q3 2020Q2 Merchandise trade volume About the WTO The World Trade Organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. About this publication World Trade Statistical Review provides a detailed analysis of the latest developments in world trade. It is the WTO’s flagship statistical publication and is produced on an annual basis. For more information All data used in this report, as well as additional charts and tables not included, can be downloaded from the WTO web site at www.wto.org/statistics World Trade Statistical Review 2021 I. Introduction 4 Acknowledgements 6 A message from Director-General 7 II. Highlights of world trade in 2020 and the impact of COVID-19 8 World trade overview 10 Merchandise trade 12 Commercial services 15 Leading traders 18 Least-developed countries 19 III. World trade and economic growth, 2020-21 20 Trade and GDP in 2020 and early 2021 22 Merchandise trade volume 23 Commodity prices 26 Exchange rates 27 Merchandise and services trade values 28 Leading indicators of trade 31 Economic recovery from COVID-19 34 IV. Composition, definitions & methodology 40 Composition of geographical and economic groupings 42 Definitions and methodology 42 Specific notes for selected economies 49 Statistical sources 50 Abbreviations and symbols 51 V.
    [Show full text]
  • Trade and Employment Challenges for Policy Research
    ILO - WTO - ILO TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH This study is the outcome of collaborative research between the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT International Labour Office (ILO). It addresses an issue that is of concern to both organizations: the relationship between trade and employment. On the basis of an overview of the existing academic CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH literature, the study provides an impartial view of what can be said, and with what degree of confidence, on the relationship between trade and employment, an often contentious issue of public debate. Its focus is on the connections between trade policies, and labour and social policies and it will be useful for all those who are interested in this debate: academics and policy-makers, workers and employers, trade and labour specialists. WTO ISBN 978-92-870-3380-2 A joint study of the International Labour Office ILO ISBN 978-92-2-119551-1 and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization Printed by the WTO Secretariat - 813.07 TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH A joint study of the International Labour Office and the Secretariat of the World Trade Organization Prepared by Marion Jansen Eddy Lee Economic Research and Statistics Division International Institute for Labour Studies World Trade Organization International Labour Office TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT: CHALLENGES FOR POLICY RESEARCH Copyright © 2007 International Labour Organization and World Trade Organization. Publications of the International Labour Office and World Trade Organization enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated.
    [Show full text]
  • the Wto, Imf and World Bank
    ISSN: 1726-9466 13 F ULFILLING THE MARRAKESH MANDATE ON COHERENCE: ISBN: 978-92-870-3443-4 TEN YEARS OF COOPERATION BETWEEN THE WTO, IMF AND WORLD BANK by MARC AUBOIN Printed by the WTO Secretariat - 6006.07 DISCUSSION PAPER NO 13 Fulfi lling the Marrakesh Mandate on Coherence: Ten Years of Cooperation between the WTO, IMF and World Bank by Marc Auboin Counsellor, Trade and Finance and Trade Facilitation Division World Trade Organization Geneva, Switzerland Disclaimer and citation guideline Discussion Papers are presented by the authors in their personal capacity and opinions expressed in these papers should be attributed to the authors. They are not meant to represent the positions or opinions of the WTO Secretariat or of its Members and are without prejudice to Members’ rights and obligations under the WTO. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. Any citation of this paper should ascribe authorship to staff of the WTO Secretariat and not to the WTO. This paper is only available in English – Price CHF 20.- To order, please contact: WTO Publications Centre William Rappard 154 rue de Lausanne CH-1211 Geneva Switzerland Tel: (41 22) 739 52 08 Fax: (41 22) 739 57 92 Website: www.wto.org E-mail: [email protected] ISSN 1726-9466 ISBN: 978-92-870-3443-4 Printed by the WTO Secretariat IX-2007 Keywords: coherence, cooperation in global economic policy making, economic policy coordination, cooperation between international organizations. © World Trade Organization, 2007. Reproduction of material contained in this document may be made only with written permission of the WTO Publications Manager.
    [Show full text]
  • Balance-Of-Payments Crises in the Developing World: Balancing Trade, Finance and Development in the New Economic Order Chantal Thomas
    American University International Law Review Volume 15 | Issue 6 Article 3 2000 Balance-of-Payments Crises in the Developing World: Balancing Trade, Finance and Development in the New Economic Order Chantal Thomas Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/auilr Part of the International Law Commons Recommended Citation Thomas, Chantal. "Balance-of-Payments Crises in the Developing World: Balancing Trade, Finance and Development in the New Economic Order." American University International Law Review 15, no. 6 (2000): 1249-1277. This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Washington College of Law Journals & Law Reviews at Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. It has been accepted for inclusion in American University International Law Review by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ American University Washington College of Law. For more information, please contact [email protected]. BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISES IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD: BALANCING TRADE, FINANCE AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEW ECONOMIC ORDER CHANTAL THOMAS' INTRODUCTION ............................................ 1250 I. CAUSES OF BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CRISES ...... 1251 II. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LAW ON BALANCE- OF-PAYVIENTS CRISES ................................ 1255 A. THE TRADE SIDE: THE GATT/WTO ...................... 1255 1. The Basic Legal Rules .................................. 1255 2. The Operation of the Rules ........................... 1258 a. Substantive Dynamics ................................ 1259 b. Institutional Dynam ics ................................ 1260 B. THE MONETARY SIDE: THE IMF ......................... 1261 C. THE ERA OF DEEP INTEGRATION .......................... 1263 III. INDIA AND ITS BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS TRADE RESTRICTION S .............................................. 1265 A. THE TRANSFORMATION OF INDIA .......................... 1265 B. THE WTO BALANCE-OF-PAYMENTS CASE ................ 1269 1. The Substantive Arguments ............................ 1270 a.
    [Show full text]
  • 10 Benefits of the WTO Trading System
    10 benefits of the WTO trading system The world is complex.This booklet highlights some of the benefits of the WTO’s “multilateral” trading system, but it doesn’t claim that everything is perfect—otherwise there would be no need for further negotiations and for the rules to be revised. Nor does it claim that everyone agrees with everything in the WTO. That’s one of the most important reasons for having the system: it’s a forum for countries to thrash out their differences on trade issues. That said,there are many over-riding reasons why we’re better off with the system than we would be without it. Here are 10 of them. The 10 benefits 1. The system helps promote peace 2. Disputes are handled constructively 3. Rules make life easier for all 4. Freer trade cuts the costs of living 5. It provides more choice of products and qualities 6. Trade raises incomes 7. Trade stimulates economic growth 8. The basic principles make life more efficient 9. Governments are shielded from lobbying 10. The system encourages good government 1 1. This sounds like an exaggerated claim, and it would be wrong to make too much of it. Nevertheless, the system does contribute to international peace, and if we understand why, we have a clearer picture of what the system actually does. Peace is partly an outcome of two of expanded—one has become the slide into serious economic trouble for the most fundamental principles of European Union, the other the World all—including the sectors that were the trading system: helping trade to Trade Organization (WTO).
    [Show full text]
  • Trade and Employment in a Fast- Changing World
    Policy Priorities for International Trade and Jobs A PRODUCT OF THE INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATIVE INITIATIVE ON TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT (ICITE) Chapter 1 Trade and Employment in a Fast- Changing World Read and download the full publication and individual chapters, as well as other material from the ICITE project, at www.oecd.org/trade/icite This document has been developed as a contribution to the International Collaborative Initiative on Trade and Employment (ICITE) coordinated by the OECD. The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD, OECD member country governments or partners of the ICITE initiative. CHAPTER 1.TRADE AND EMPLOYMENT IN A FAST-CHANGING WORLD – 7 Chapter 1 Trade and Employment in a Fast-Changing World Richard Newfarmer* and Monika Sztajerowska** Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Anchored by a new wave of research under the International Collaborative Initiative on Trade and Employment, this paper reviews the vast literature on ways that trade might affect job creation and wages, including its relation to economic growth, productivity, and income distribution as well as working conditions. The paper also looks at evidence related to oft-voiced concerns about the effects of offshoring and trade in services as well as adjustment costs associated with trade. On balance, the paper concludes that in virtually all of these dimensions trade can play an important role in creating better jobs, increasing wages in both rich and poor countries, and improving working conditions. However, benefits of trade do not accrue automatically, and policies that complement trade opening are needed to have full positive effects on growth and employment.
    [Show full text]
  • World Trade Organization Economic Research and Statistics Division
    Staff Working Paper ERSD-2009-07 September 2009 World Trade Organization Economic Research and Statistics Division ENDOWMENTS, POWER, AND DEMOCRACY: POLITICAL ECONOMY OF MULTILATERAL COMMITMENTS ON TRADE IN SERVICES Martin ROY: WTO Manuscript date: September 2009 Disclaimer: This is a working paper, and hence it represents research in progress. This paper represents the opinions of the author, and is the product of professional research. It is not meant to represent the position or opinions of the WTO or its Members, nor the official position of any staff members. Any errors are the fault of the author. Copies of working papers can be requested from the divisional secretariat by writing to: Economic Research and Statistics Division, World Trade Organization, Rue de Lausanne 154, CH 1211 Geneva 21, Switzerland. Please request papers by number and title. i ENDOWMENTS, POWER, AND DEMOCRACY: POLITICAL ECONOMY OF MULTILATERAL COMMITMENTS ON TRADE IN SERVICES By Martin ROY1 Abstract In spite of their growing importance in international trade as well as in bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations, services have only attracted limited attention from researchers interested in determinants of trade policies and commitments. This paper draws from different approaches within the field of international political economy to try to explain why governments undertook different levels of market access commitments under the WTO's General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). The argument, which is supported by empirical analysis, suggests that democracy, relative power, relative endowments, and the WTO accessions process have a significant impact on multilateral commitments on trade in services. JEL Classification: F5, F13, L8, D72 Keywords: trade in services, GATS, democracy, relative power, endowments, WTO accessions, determinants of cooperation, determinants of international commitments, international negotiations.
    [Show full text]
  • Trade, Growth and Disparity Among Nations Dan Ben-David1
    Trade, Growth and Disparity Among Nations Dan Ben-David1 A.Introduction of goods and services, they are less prone to exchange rate distortions. Hence, they provide much more reliable The pluses and minuses of openness between cross-country output comparisons than do official countries have been a source of heated debate for much exchange rates. of the 20th century—with domestic trade policies lying in the balance. The century began with movement towards The determination of purchasing power parities for a relative openness that eventually reverted to the erection large number of countries over a span of several decades of massive trade barriers during the inter-war period. The began with the seminal work of Heston, Kravis, Lipsey current trend towards greater openness began in the and Summers in the 1970s. This work evolved over 1940s with the end of World War II. several rounds and culminated with the most recent data set made available in 1995 by Summers and Heston This trend received a major boost from two which begins in 1950 for a number of countries and ends complementary factors. The first important factor is the in 1992. In all, the dataset includes annual observations continuous decline in transportation costs—the natural for 152 countries, though not all of the countries have barriers to trade—throughout the century. The second data for all of the years. factor is the change in trade-related policies: those that affected regional trade and those that affected trade at Table 1 draws on this most recent Summers and the global level. Heston (1995) dataset and includes the 1985 per capita output of all 152 countries in US dollars.
    [Show full text]
  • International and Regional Trade Law: the Law of the World Trade Organization
    International and Regional Trade Law: The Law of the World Trade Organization J.H.H. Weiler University Professor, NYU Joseph Straus Professor of Law and European Union Jean Monnet Chair NYU School of Law AND Sungjoon Cho Associate Professor and Norman and Edna Freehling Scholar Chicago-Kent College of Law Illinois Institute of Technology AND Isabel Feichtner Junior Professor of Law and Economics Goethe University Frankfurt Unit I: The Syntax and Grammar of International Trade Law © J.H.H. Weiler, S. Cho & I. Feichtner 2011 International and Regional Trade Law: The Law of the World Trade Organization Unit I: The Syntax and Grammar of International Trade Law Table of Contents 1.Introductory Note............................................................................................................. 3 1-1. General Remark on the Teaching Materials.................................................... 3 1-2. Supplementary Reading................................................................................... 3 1-3. Useful Links ................................................................................................... 4 2. The Economics of International Trade........................................................................... 5 2-1. Comparative Advantage ................................................................................ 5 2-2. Paul R. Krugman, What Do Undergrads Need To Know About Trade?........ 7 3. International Trade Law and the WTO .......................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Methodology for the Wto Trade Forecast of April 8 2020
    METHODOLOGY FOR THE WTO TRADE FORECAST OF APRIL 8 2020 Economic Research and Statistics Division♣ World Trade Organization♦ This paper describes the methodologies employed to generate the WTO trade forecast of April 2020. The approach consists of two quantitative parts, combined with expert judgements as needed. Part 1 describes the methodology used to develop estimates for GDP impacts. Part 2 describes the way in which the forecast for trade was generated based on the estimated GDP impacts. The WTO's normal approach employs consensus estimates for GDP (usually drawn from IMF, World Bank, and OECD) in various regions as inputs into the trade forecast model. At the time of our most recent forecasting exercise, the available consensus estimates were not reflecting the drastically changing circumstances since March 2020 in the global economy because of the Covid-19 pandemic. We therefore found it necessary to generate our own GDP estimates. In Part 1 three scenarios are developed for the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, a V-shaped, U- shaped and L-shaped recovery scenario. The WTO Global Trade Model, a recursive dynamic CGE model, is employed to simulate the GDP effects of the crisis. We then choose two scenarios to generate the trade forecast, an optimistic scenario corresponding to a V-shaped recovery and a pessimistic scenario corresponding to a L-shaped recovery. In Part 2, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) equations are used to produce univariate estimates for selected countries and regions, which were then aggregated up to the global level. Inputs into the model are historical values for trade, GDP and other variables and then projections for GDP.
    [Show full text]