The Travelers Companies, Inc
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Jay S. Benet Vice Chairman & Chief Financial Officer Barclays Global Financial Services Conference September 8, 2014 1 Explanatory Note This presentation contains, and management may make, certain “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, may be forward-looking statements. Words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “likely,” “anticipates,” “expects,” “intends,” “plans,” “projects,” “believes,” “estimates” and similar expressions are used to identify these forward-looking statements. Examples of our forward-looking statements include statements relating to our future financial condition and operating results, the sufficiency of our reserves, the impact of emerging claim issues and other litigation, reinsurance coverage, catastrophe losses, market conditions, our share repurchase plans, potential margins, potential returns, and our strategic initiatives. We caution investors that such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the company’s control, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, the following: • Catastrophe losses; • Financial market disruption or economic downturn; • Changes to our claims and claim adjustment expense reserves; • The performance of our investment portfolio; • Asbestos and environmental claims and related litigation; • Mass tort claims; • Emerging claim and coverage issues; • Competition, including the impact of competition on our strategic initiatives and new products; • The collectability and availability of reinsurance coverage; • Credit risk we face in insurance operations and investment activities, including under reinsurance or structured settlements; • The federal, state and international regulatory environment; • A downgrade in our claims-paying or financial strength ratings; • The inability of our insurance subsidiaries to pay dividends to our holding company in sufficient amounts; • Disruptions to our relationships with our independent agents and brokers; • Risks associated with developing new products, including in Personal Insurance, or expanding in targeted markets; • Losses of or restrictions placed on the use of credit scoring or other underwriting criteria in the pricing and underwriting of insurance products; • Risks associated with our use of pricing and capital models; • Limits to the effectiveness of our information technology systems; • Difficulties with our technology, data security and/or outsourcing relationships; • Risks associated with our business outside of the United States, including regulatory risks; • Risks associated with acquisitions, and integration of acquired businesses; • Limits to the effectiveness of our compliance controls; • Our ability to hire and retain qualified employees; • Company may be unable to protect and enforce its own intellectual property or may be subject to claims infringing on intellectual property of others; • Other changes in tax laws that adversely impact our investment portfolio or operating results; • Changes to existing accounting standards; • Factors impacting the operation of our repurchase plans; and • The company may not achieve the anticipated benefits of its transactions, its new products or its strategic initiatives or complete a transaction that is subject to closing conditions. For a more detailed discussion of these factors, see the information under "Risk Factors" and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Our forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation or as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update those statements. 2 • Travelers Profile • Data & Analytics • Performance 3 Travelers Profile • Property & casualty insurer – writer of primary business, mostly U.S. domestic with growing international presence • Distribution primarily through independent agents and brokers • Full year 2013 net written premiums: $22.8 billion − 6th largest property & casualty insurer − #2 in commercial insurance, strong presence in small and middle market businesses − #9 in personal insurance (#2 - agency only) • Focus on frequency driven product lines, not severity • Top tier returns • Financially strong and very highly rated − Total assets of $105 billion − Investment portfolio of $74 billion − Shareholders’ equity of $25.5 billion • Investment operations support insurance operations, not the other way around • Component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Market share ranking source: SNL Financial. Based on 2013 direct written premium. Total excludes other accident & health. Personal agency ranking 4 based on 2013 A.M. Best market share. Total assets, investment portfolio and shareholders’ equity at June 30, 2014. Long-Term Financial Strategy Balanced Generation of approach to Meaningful and top tier earnings rightsizing capital sustainable and capital and competitive substantially in growing book advantages excess of growth value per share needs over time CREATE SHAREHOLDER VALUE Objective: Mid-Teens Operating ROE Over Time 5 Return Focused Company Operating Return on Equity vs. Estimated Cost of Capital1 17.9% 17.7% 15.5% 14.6% 14.0% 12.4% 12.5% 11.9% 11.0% 10.8% 9.6% 9.8% 8.3% 8.4% 7.9% ` 8.1% 7.4% 6.6% 6.1% 6.4% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 2014 TRV operating return on equity TRV estimated cost of capital1 From Jan. 1, 2005 through Jun. 30, 2014, TRV’s average annual operating ROE was approximately 13.2% 6 1 Cost of capital: weighted average cost of capital represents the cost of equity, debt and hybrid securities proportional to the total capital of the enterprise. The cost of equity: weekly two year adjusted beta against S&P 500, Ibbotson equity market risk premium and ten -year Treasury. Consistently Growing Book Value Per Share Book Value Per Share $75.32 $70.15 $67.31 $62.32 $58.47 $52.54 $42.22 $43.12 $36.86 ` $31.94 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jun. 30, 2014 Adjusted Book Value Per Share1 $66.41 $69.38 $59.09 $54.19 $55.01 $48.98 $41.25 $43.37 $36.21 ` $31.47 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Jun. 30, 2014 1 Adjusted book value per share is total common shareholders’ equity excluding the after-tax impact of net unrealized investment gains 7 and losses divided by the number of common shares outstanding. • Travelers Profile • Data & Analytics • Performance 8 Data & Analytics - Role of Finance Organization at Travelers • Major part of the company’s culture -- finance fully embedded in our business units • Knowledge, insight and judgment is the name of the game • Modern, comprehensive financial systems streamline financial reporting processes and allow for extensive financial planning and analysis • Highly effective systems of internal control and enterprise risk management in place -- crucial to data integrity at the granular level • Detailed analytics drive business decisions Financial information is a fully integrated continuum -- what are actual results telling you about actions you should take both now and in the future? 9 Data & Analytics - Knowledge, Insight and Judgment • Worldwide general ledger1 Countrywide – CAG Field Controllable Income Statement Jane Smith (XXX) XXX-XXXX • Consolidated results available on Southwest Region – CAG Field - Controllable Income Statement fifth work day of each month John Smith (XXX) XXX-XXXX Los Angeles – CAG Field – Reported Loss/LAE Triangle John Smith (XXX) XXX-XXXX Los Angeles – CAG Field - Controllable Income Statement • Domestic field organization controllable income statements available on sixth work day of each month • Consolidated GAAP results consistent with field results • Fully integrated into corporate culture and business dialogue Deeply rooted analytic culture in place since early 1990’s 10 1Currently excludes a recent acquisition Data & Analytics – “Ever Better” Financial Insight Production information: renewal rate change, exposure change, etc. Account executive dashboards Expected economic product returns Renewal rate change distribution Renewal rate change & retention by loss ratio band Continually expanding business analytics for better decision making 11 Highly Detailed Reserve Setting Process • Actuarial fully embedded in our business units • Highly detailed analyses performed quarterly at the business unit level to test carried reserves • Involves a high degree of judgment informed by historical data, detailed knowledge of the business, econometric trends and extensive communication across the organization Construction Business Unit Workers’ Compensation, Guaranteed Cost, Indemnity, Incurred Losses DQ \ AY 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 • One of 35 triangles used to test 1 1,201,721 1,268,760 1,540,523 2,593,681 2,739,620 3,276,398 2,978,892 5,161,053 4,037,770 3,619,872 3,466,610 5 9,869,952 14,229,343 20,433,492 26,978,839 29,843,753 29,953,796 42,562,272 47,622,681 44,341,319 49,712,967 Construction WC-GC reserve -- 9 14,517,446 20,184,405 26,993,669 38,140,249 43,090,395 49,198,732 63,407,442 72,848,085 69,181,894 13 18,300,937 21,998,748 27,721,816 41,046,534 51,037,555 56,617,378 75,765,992 88,873,922 represents 6.6% of total workers’ 17 18,437,939