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The Determinants and Effects of Financial Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: a Regional Analysis with a Case Study of Nigeria

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The Determinants and Effects of Financial Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa: a Regional Analysis with a Case Study of Nigeria THE DETERMINANTS AND EFFECTS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: A REGIONAL ANALYSIS WITH A CASE STUDY OF NIGERIA A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY AND ADMINISTRAION, CARLETON UNIVERSITY, OTTAWA, ONTARIO IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY KENNETH ETIM KALU OTTAWA, CANADA MAY 2007 © Kenneth Kalu, 2007 Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Library and Bibliotheque et Archives Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de I'edition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-33496-6 Our file Notre reference ISBN: 978-0-494-33496-6 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non­ L'auteur a accorde une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library permettant a la Bibliotheque et Archives and Archives Canada to reproduce,Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve,sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par telecommunication ou par I'lnternet, preter, telecommunication or on the Internet,distribuer et vendre des theses partout dans loan, distribute and sell theses le monde, a des fins commerciales ou autres, worldwide, for commercial or non­ sur support microforme, papier, electronique commercial purposes, in microform,et/ou autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. The author retains copyright L'auteur conserve la propriete du droit d'auteur ownership and moral rights in et des droits moraux qui protege cette these. this thesis. Neither the thesis Ni la these ni des extraits substantiels de nor substantial extracts from it celle-ci ne doivent etre imprimes ou autrement may be printed or otherwise reproduits sans son autorisation. reproduced without the author's permission. In compliance with the Canadian Conformement a la loi canadienne Privacy Act some supporting sur la protection de la vie privee, forms may have been removed quelques formulaires secondaires from this thesis. ont ete enleves de cette these. While these forms may be includedBien que ces formulaires in the document page count, aient inclus dans la pagination, their removal does not represent il n'y aura aucun contenu manquant. any loss of content from the thesis. i * i Canada Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ABSTRACT This dissertation has three distinct but related objectives. The first objective is to provide insights into the determinants of financial liberalization in a sample of 30 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The second objective is to explore the factors that led the Nigerian government to implement financial liberalization. The third objective is to assess the impacts of financial liberalization in Nigeria. Using a newly constructed database of financial liberalization, this dissertation shows that participation in an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program increases the likelihood of financial liberalization in the average country in the sample. Furthermore, there is evidence to support the learning hypothesis, which posits that a country is more likely to implement financial liberalization if a big country in the region (described as a regional leader) has implemented financial liberalization. Good economic performance, represented by increasing GDP, reduces the likelihood of financial liberalization in the average country. Similar to the cross-country evidence, case-study analysis shows that Nigeria’s participation in IMF program was a significant factor leading to the implementation of financial liberalization in that country. In addition, the ideas and beliefs of senior policy makers in Nigeria constituted a significant factor leading to financial liberalization in that country. This dissertation concludes that financial liberalization led to a phenomenal increase in the number of banks in Nigeria. However, the increase in number of banks did not result in significant improvement in most measures of financial development. On the other hand, financial liberalization facilitated the emergence of a new class of financially buoyant Nigerians outside the traditional military/political class. ii Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Like all challenging tasks, the task of completing a dissertation and obtaining a Ph.D. requires the support and encouragement of others. Therefore, although I claim full responsibility for any errors that may remain in this dissertation, I am grateful to everyone who has contributed in one way or the other to ensure that I reach this destination. I thank my supervisor Dr. Dane Rowlands and members of my thesis committee, Dr. Saul Schwartz and Dr. Ted Jackson for all their assistance, guidance, and words of encouragement during this process. I would also like to thank Dr. and Dr. (Mrs.) Obijiofor Aginam and Emeka Ekwosimba for all the help they rendered to me during the course of this project. I wish to express my sincere gratitude to members of my family who have, in various ways, borne the real cost of this journey. I thank my lovely wife, Ifeyinwa for her support during the good and bad days of my graduate studies. I would also like to thank my children, Chidinma, Chinenye, and Ogechi, all of whom gave up quality time with me so I may focus on this task. I remain grateful to all of you for your sacrifices. I cannot forget my family and friends in Nigeria, many of who displayed uncommon kindness to me during these past years. iii Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Title Page i Abstract ii Acknowledgement iii Table of Contents iv List of Tables v Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Factors that Influence Financial Sector Reforms: A Literature Review 11 Chapter 3 Determinants of Financial Liberalization in Sub-Saharan Africa 34 Chapter 4 Determinants of Financial Liberalization in Nigeria 78 Chapter 5 Literature Review on the Effects of Financial Liberalization on the Financial Sector 120 Chapter 6 The Effects of Financial Liberalization in Nigeria 147 Chapter 7 Conclusion 196 References 209 Appendix 221 iv Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF TABLES Page Table 2.1 Table of independent variables 3 0 Table 2.2 Summary of major empirical findings on factors leading to financial liberalization 31 Table 3.1 Correlation among the benchmark variables 5 3 Table 3.2 Summary statistics of the independent variables 54 Table 3.3 Ordered probit estimates: benchmark specification (equation 1) 56 Table 3.4 Ordered probit estimates: alternative specification (equation 2) 62 Table 3.5 Ordered probit estimates: alternative specification (lagged crisis, IMF and Leaderlib variables) 67 Table 3.6 Ordered probit estimates: alternative specification (equation 3) 69 Table 3.7 Probit estimates: sensitivity test (equation 1) 71 Table 3.8 Ordered probit: without IMF program variable 73 Table 6.1 Number of banks in Nigeria, 1980-2003 155 Table 6.2 Spread between lending and deposit rates in commercial banks 161 Table 6.3 Savings statistics, 1975-2004 169 Table 6.4 Bank lending to the private sector (% of GDP) 175 Table 6.5 Liquidated banks in Nigeria, 1994 to 2002 182 v Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. LIST OF APPENDICES Page Appendix 1 Financial liberalization index for 30 SSA countries, 1973-2003 221 Appendix 2 STATA program for Chapter 3 223 Appendix 3 Description of interview process 227 vi Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission. Chapter One Introduction Following the attainment of political independence, various countries in Sub- Saharan Africa (SSA) initiated strong controls over their respective financial sectors. These controls were meant to symbolize full independence in their political and economic spheres after years of colonial domination. During the colonial period, the financial sectors of SSA countries were dominated almost entirely by foreign banks. These banks were mere branches of European banks. The feeling that European banks were not interested in financing the development needs of the colonies spurred the newly independent governments to undertake extensive control of the financial sector. Therefore, government controls over the financial sector in SSA were not bom out of any overriding economic principle, but reflected a “nationalist response to colonial practices” (Mkandawire 1999; p. 322). Colonial banks in SSA were widely accused of discriminating against local businesses in their financing decisions. The colonial banks concentrated more on providing financial services to expatriate firms serving the interest of the colonial masters (Brownbridge, 1998). Given the feeling of discrimination by African nationals, it is little wonder that the immediate response of the governments of most SSA countries after political independence was to secure control of their respective financial sectors, and to influence all financial variables in order to steer the economy in a desired direction. The immediate post-independence era was therefore a period when government directly guided the flow of the economy - a phenomenon considered
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