Nasa Cr-61316 Long Range Solar Flare -Prediction
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NSF Current Newsletter Highlights Research and Education Efforts Supported by the National Science Foundation
March 2012 Each month, the NSF Current newsletter highlights research and education efforts supported by the National Science Foundation. If you would like to automatically receive notifications by e-mail or RSS when future editions of NSF Current are available, please use the links below: Subscribe to NSF Current by e-mail | What is RSS? | Print this page | Return to NSF Current Archive Robotic Surgery Systems Shipped to Medical Research Centers A set of seven identical advanced robotic-surgery systems produced with NSF support were shipped last month to major U.S. medical research laboratories, creating a network of systems using a common platform. The network is designed to make it easy for researchers to share software, replicate experiments and collaborate in other ways. Robotic surgery has the potential to enable new surgical procedures that are less invasive than existing techniques. The developers of the Raven II system made the decision to share it as the best way to move the field forward--though it meant giving competing laboratories tools that had taken them years to develop. "We decided to follow an open-source model, because if all of these labs have a common research platform for doing robotic surgery, the whole field will be able to advance more quickly," said Jacob Rosen, Students with components associate professor of computer engineering at the University of of the Raven II surgical California-Santa Cruz. Rosen and Blake Hannaford, director of the robotics systems. Credit: University of Washington Biorobotics Laboratory, led the team that Carolyn Lagattuta built the Raven system, initially with a U.S. -
Natural & Unnatural Disasters
Lesson 20: Disasters February 22, 2006 ENVIR 202: Lesson No. 20 Natural & Unnatural Disasters February 22, 2006 Gail Sandlin University of Washington Program on the Environment ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 1 Natural Disaster A natural disaster is the consequence or effect of a natural phenomenon becoming enmeshed with human activities. “Disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability” So is it Mother Nature or Human Nature? ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 2 Natural Phenomena Tornadoes Drought Floods Hurricanes Tsunami Wild Fires Volcanoes Landslides Avalanche Earthquakes ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 3 ENVIR 202: Population & Health 1 Lesson 20: Disasters February 22, 2006 Naturals Hazards Why do Populations Live near Natural Hazards? High voluntary individual risk Low involuntary societal risk Element of probability Benefits outweigh risk Economical Social & cultural Few alternatives Concept of resilience; operationalized through policies or systems ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 4 Tornado Alley http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/2005deadlytorn.html ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 5 Oklahoma City, May 1999 319 mph (near F6) 44 died, 795 injured 3,000 homes and 150 businesses destroyed ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 6 ENVIR 202: Population & Health 2 Lesson 20: Disasters February 22, 2006 World’s Deadliest Tornado April 26, 1989 1300 died 12,000 injured 80,000 homeless Two towns leveled Where? ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 7 Bangladesh ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 8 Hurricanes, Typhoons & Cyclones winds over 74 mph regional location 500,000 Bhola cyclone, 1970, Bangladesh 229,000 Typhoon Nina, 1975, China 138,000 Bangladesh cyclone, 1991 ENVIR 202: Lesson 20 9 ENVIR 202: Population & Health 3 Lesson 20: Disasters February 22, 2006 U.S. -
A Deep Learning Framework for Solar Phenomena Prediction
FlareNet: A Deep Learning Framework for Solar Phenomena Prediction FDL 2017 Solar Storm Team: Sean McGregor1, Dattaraj Dhuri1,2, Anamaria Berea1,3, and Andrés Muñoz-Jaramillo1,4 1NASA’s 2017 Frontier Development Laboratory 2Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), Mumbai, India 3Center for Complexity in Business, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA 4SouthWest Research Institute, Boulder, CO, USA Abstract Solar activity can interfere with the normal operation of GPS satellites, the power grid, and space operations, but inadequate predictive models mean we have little warning for the arrival of newly disruptive solar activity. Petabytes of data col- lected from satellite instruments aboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) provide a high-cadence, high-resolution, and many-channeled dataset of solar phenomena. Several challenging deep learning problems may be derived from the data, including space weather forecasting (i.e., solar flares, solar energetic particles, and coronal mass ejections). This work introduces a software framework, FlareNet, for experimentation within these problems. FlareNet includes compo- nents for the downloading and management of SDO data, visualization, and rapid experimentation. The system architecture is built to enable collaboration between heliophysicists and machine learning researchers on the topics of image regres- sion, image classification, and image segmentation. We specifically highlight the problem of solar flare prediction and offer insights from preliminary experiments. 1 Introduction The violent release of solar magnetic energy – collectively referred to as “space weather" – is responsible for a variety of phenomena that can disrupt technological assets. In particular, solar flares (sudden brightenings of the solar corona) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; the violent release of solar plasma) can disrupt long-distance communications, reduce Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy, degrade satellites, and disrupt the power grid [5]. -
Solar and Space Physics: a Science for a Technological Society
Solar and Space Physics: A Science for a Technological Society The 2013-2022 Decadal Survey in Solar and Space Physics Space Studies Board ∙ Division on Engineering & Physical Sciences ∙ August 2012 From the interior of the Sun, to the upper atmosphere and near-space environment of Earth, and outwards to a region far beyond Pluto where the Sun’s influence wanes, advances during the past decade in space physics and solar physics have yielded spectacular insights into the phenomena that affect our home in space. This report, the final product of a study requested by NASA and the National Science Foundation, presents a prioritized program of basic and applied research for 2013-2022 that will advance scientific understanding of the Sun, Sun- Earth connections and the origins of “space weather,” and the Sun’s interactions with other bodies in the solar system. The report includes recommendations directed for action by the study sponsors and by other federal agencies—especially NOAA, which is responsible for the day-to-day (“operational”) forecast of space weather. Recent Progress: Significant Advances significant progress in understanding the origin from the Past Decade and evolution of the solar wind; striking advances The disciplines of solar and space physics have made in understanding of both explosive solar flares remarkable advances over the last decade—many and the coronal mass ejections that drive space of which have come from the implementation weather; new imaging methods that permit direct of the program recommended in 2003 Solar observations of the space weather-driven changes and Space Physics Decadal Survey. For example, in the particles and magnetic fields surrounding enabled by advances in scientific understanding Earth; new understanding of the ways that space as well as fruitful interagency partnerships, the storms are fueled by oxygen originating from capabilities of models that predict space weather Earth’s own atmosphere; and the surprising impacts on Earth have made rapid gains over discovery that conditions in near-Earth space the past decade. -
The Van Allen Probes' Contribution to the Space Weather System
L. J. Zanetti et al. The Van Allen Probes’ Contribution to the Space Weather System Lawrence J. Zanetti, Ramona L. Kessel, Barry H. Mauk, Aleksandr Y. Ukhorskiy, Nicola J. Fox, Robin J. Barnes, Michele Weiss, Thomas S. Sotirelis, and NourEddine Raouafi ABSTRACT The Van Allen Probes mission, formerly the Radiation Belt Storm Probes mission, was renamed soon after launch to honor the late James Van Allen, who discovered Earth’s radiation belts at the beginning of the space age. While most of the science data are telemetered to the ground using a store-and-then-dump schedule, some of the space weather data are broadcast continu- ously when the Probes are not sending down the science data (approximately 90% of the time). This space weather data set is captured by contributed ground stations around the world (pres- ently Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Republic), automatically sent to the ground facility at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Phys- ics Laboratory, converted to scientific units, and published online in the form of digital data and plots—all within less than 15 minutes from the time that the data are accumulated onboard the Probes. The real-time Van Allen Probes space weather information is publicly accessible via the Van Allen Probes Gateway web interface. INTRODUCTION The overarching goal of the study of space weather ing radiation, were the impetus for implementing a space is to understand and address the issues caused by solar weather broadcast capability on NASA’s Van Allen disturbances and the effects of those issues on humans Probes’ twin pair of satellites, which were launched in and technological systems. -
Transmittal of Geotail Prelaunch Mission Operation Report
National Aeronautics and Space Administration Washington, D.C. 20546 ss Reply to Attn of: TO: DISTRIBUTION FROM: S/Associate Administrator for Space Science and Applications SUBJECT: Transmittal of Geotail Prelaunch Mission Operation Report I am pleased to forward with this memorandum the Prelaunch Mission Operation Report for Geotail, a joint project of the Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) of Japan and NASA to investigate the geomagnetic tail region of the magnetosphere. The satellite was designed and developed by ISAS and will carry two ISAS, two NASA, and three joint ISAS/NASA instruments. The launch, on a Delta II expendable launch vehicle (ELV), will take place no earlier than July 14, 1992, from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. This launch is the first under NASA’s Medium ELV launch service contract with the McDonnell Douglas Corporation. Geotail is an element in the International Solar Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) Program. The overall goal of the ISTP Program is to employ simultaneous and closely coordinated remote observations of the sun and in situ observations both in the undisturbed heliosphere near Earth and in Earth’s magnetosphere to measure, model, and quantitatively assess the processes in the sun/Earth interaction chain. In the early phase of the Program, simultaneous measurements in the key regions of geospace from Geotail and the two U.S. satellites of the Global Geospace Science (GGS) Program, Wind and Polar, along with equatorial measurements, will be used to characterize global energy transfer. The current schedule includes, in addition to the July launch of Geotail, launches of Wind in August 1993 and Polar in May 1994. -
Exploring the Sun with ALMA
Astronomical Science DOI: 10.18727/0722-6691/5065 Exploring the Sun with ALMA Timothy S. Bastian1 18 Space Vehicles Directorate, Air Force and to gain an understanding of how Miroslav Bárta2 Research Laboratory, Albuquerque, mechanical and radiative energy are Roman Brajša3 USA transferred through that atmospheric Bin Chen4 19 National Astronomical Observatories, layer. Bart De Pontieu5, 6 Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, Dale E. Gary4 China Much of what is currently known about Gregory D. Fleishman4 the chromosphere has relied on spectro- Antonio S. Hales1, 7 scopic observations at optical and ultra- Kazumasa Iwai8 The Atacama Large Millimeter/submilli- violet wavelengths using both ground- Hugh Hudson9, 10 meter Array (ALMA) Observatory opens and space-based instrumentation. While Sujin Kim11, 12 a new window onto the Universe. The a lot of progress has been made, the Adam Kobelski13 ability to perform continuum imaging interpretation of such observations is Maria Loukitcheva4, 14, 15 and spectroscopy of astrophysical phe- complex because optical and ultraviolet Masumi Shimojo16, 17 nomena at millimetre and submillimetre lines in the chromosphere form under Ivica Skokić2, 3 wavelengths with unprecedented sen- conditions of non-local thermodynamic Sven Wedemeyer6 sitivity opens up new avenues for the equilibrium. In contrast, emission from Stephen M. White18 study of cosmology and the evolution the Sun’s chromosphere at millimetre Yihua Yan19 of galaxies, the formation of stars and and submillimetre wavelengths is more planets, and astrochemistry. ALMA also straightforward to interpret as the emis- allows fundamentally new observations sion forms under conditions of local 1 National Radio Astronomy Observatory, to be made of objects much closer to thermodynamic equilibrium and the Charlottesville, USA home, including the Sun. -
Statistical Properties of Superactive Regions During Solar Cycles 19–23⋆
A&A 534, A47 (2011) Astronomy DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201116790 & c ESO 2011 Astrophysics Statistical properties of superactive regions during solar cycles 19–23 A. Q. Chen1,2,J.X.Wang1,J.W.Li2,J.Feynman3, and J. Zhang1 1 Key Laboratory of Solar Activity of Chinese Academy of Sciences, National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, PR China e-mail: [email protected]; [email protected] 2 National Center for Space Weather, China Meteorological Administration, PR China 3 Helio research, 5212 Maryland Avenue, La Crescenta, USA Received 26 February 2011 / Accepted 20 August 2011 ABSTRACT Context. Each solar activity cycle is characterized by a small number of superactive regions (SARs) that produce the most violent of space weather events with the greatest disastrous influence on our living environment. Aims. We aim to re-parameterize the SARs and study the latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of SARs. Methods. We select 45 SARs in solar cycles 21–23, according to the following four parameters: 1) the maximum area of sunspot group, 2) the soft X-ray flare index, 3) the 10.7 cm radio peak flux, and 4) the variation in the total solar irradiance. Another 120 SARs given by previous studies of solar cycles 19–23 are also included. The latitudinal and longitudinal distributions of the 165 SARs in both the Carrington frame and the dynamic reference frame during solar cycles 19–23 are studied statistically. Results. Our results indicate that these 45 SARs produced 44% of all the X class X-ray flares during solar cycles 21–23, and that all the SARs are likely to produce a very fast CME. -
Radiation Belt Storm Probes Launch
National Aeronautics and Space Administration PRESS KIT | AUGUST 2012 Radiation Belt Storm Probes Launch www.nasa.gov Table of Contents Radiation Belt Storm Probes Launch ....................................................................................................................... 1 Media Contacts ........................................................................................................................................................ 4 Media Services Information ..................................................................................................................................... 5 NASA’s Radiation Belt Storm Probes ...................................................................................................................... 6 Mission Quick Facts ................................................................................................................................................. 7 Spacecraft Quick Facts ............................................................................................................................................ 8 Spacecraft Details ...................................................................................................................................................10 Mission Overview ...................................................................................................................................................11 RBSP General Science Objectives ........................................................................................................................12 -
Properties of the Solar Velocity Field Indicated by Motions of Sunspot Groups and Coronal Bright Points
DISSERTATION zur Erlangung des Doktorgrades an der Naturwissenschaflichen Fakultät der Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz Properties of the solar velocity field indicated by motions of sunspot groups and coronal bright points Ivana Poljančić Beljan begutachtet von Univ.-Prof. Dr. Arnold Hanslmeier Institut für Physik Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz und Dr. Roman Brajša, scientific advisor Hvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy University of Zagreb 2018 Thesis advisor: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Hanslmeier Arnold Ivana Poljančić Beljan Properties of the solar velocity field indicated by motions of sunspot groups and coronal bright points Abstract The solar dynamo is a consequence of the interaction of the solar magnetic field with the large scale plasma motions, namely differential rotation and meridional flows. The main aims of the dissertation are to present precise measurements of the solar differential rotation, to improve insights in the relationship between the solar rotation and activity, to clarify the cause of the existence of a whole range of different results obtained for meridional flows and to clarify that the observed transfer of the angular momentum to- wards the solar equator mainly depends on horizontal Reynolds stress. For each of the mentioned topics positions of sunspot groups and coronal bright points (CBPs) from five different sources have been used. Synodic angular rotation velocities have been calculated using the daily shift or linear least-square fit methods. After the conversion to sidereal values, differential rotation profiles have been calculated by the least-square fitting. Covariance of the calculated rotational and meridional velocities was used to de- rive the horizontal Reynolds stress. The analysis of the differential rotation in general has shown that Kanzelhöhe Observatory for Solar and Environmental research (KSO) provides a valuable data set with a satisfactory accuracy suitable for the investigation of differential rotation and similar studies. -
Polar Observations of Electron Density Distribution in the Earth's
c Annales Geophysicae (2002) 20: 1711–1724 European Geosciences Union 2002 Annales Geophysicae Polar observations of electron density distribution in the Earth’s magnetosphere. 1. Statistical results H. Laakso1, R. Pfaff2, and P. Janhunen3 1ESA Space Science Department, Noordwijk, Netherlands 2NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 696, Greenbelt, MD, USA 3Finnish Meteorological Institute, Geophysics Research, Helsinki, Sweden Received: 3 September 2001 – Revised: 3 July 2002 – Accepted: 10 July 2002 Abstract. Forty-five months of continuous spacecraft poten- Key words. Magnetospheric physics (magnetospheric con- tial measurements from the Polar satellite are used to study figuration and dynamics; plasmasphere; polar cap phenom- the average electron density in the magnetosphere and its de- ena) pendence on geomagnetic activity and season. These mea- surements offer a straightforward, passive method for mon- itoring the total electron density in the magnetosphere, with high time resolution and a density range that covers many 1 Introduction orders of magnitude. Within its polar orbit with geocentric perigee and apogee of 1.8 and 9.0 RE, respectively, Polar en- The total electron number density is a key parameter needed counters a number of key plasma regions of the magneto- for both characterizing and understanding the structure and sphere, such as the polar cap, cusp, plasmapause, and auroral dynamics of the Earth’s magnetosphere. The spatial varia- zone that are clearly identified in the statistical averages pre- tion of the electron density and its temporal evolution dur- sented here. The polar cap density behaves quite systemati- ing different geomagnetic conditions and seasons reveal nu- cally with season. At low distance (∼2 RE), the density is an merous fundamental processes concerning the Earth’s space order of magnitude higher in summer than in winter; at high environment and how it responds to energy and momentum distance (>4 RE), the variation is somewhat smaller. -
Principles of Great Geomagnetic Storms Forcasting by Online Cosmic Ray Data L
Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data L. I. Dorman To cite this version: L. I. Dorman. Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data. Annales Geophysicae, European Geosciences Union, 2005, 23 (9), pp.2997-3002. hal-00317980 HAL Id: hal-00317980 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00317980 Submitted on 22 Nov 2005 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Annales Geophysicae, 23, 2997–3002, 2005 SRef-ID: 1432-0576/ag/2005-23-2997 Annales © European Geosciences Union 2005 Geophysicae Space weather and dangerous phenomena on the Earth: principles of great geomagnetic storms forcasting by online cosmic ray data L. I. Dorman1,2 1Israel Cosmic Ray and Space Weather Center and Emilio Segre’ Observatory, affiliated to Tel Aviv University, Technion and Israel Space Agency, P. O. Box 2217, Qazrin 12900, Israel 2Cosmic Ray Department of IZMIRAN, Russian Academy of Science, Troitsk 142092, Moscow Region, Russia Received: 25 February 2005 – Revised: 24 May 2005 – Accepted: 28 May 2005 – Published: 22 November 2005 Part of Special Issue “1st European Space Weather Week (ESWW)” Abstract.